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| Tropical Storm Elsa getting ready this morning to make landfall near Cedar Key, Florida. |
The good-ish news is though Elsa, as expected, strengthened overnight into a hurricane when it was southwest of Tampa Bay, that didn't last long. Strong upper level winds and a gulp of dry air that Elsa ingested overnight kept things in check.
Top winds were at 65 mph as Elsa lumbered toward an expected landfall later this morning or around noon time in northwestern Florida.
So far, damage has been on the light side all along the west coast of Florida, which Elsa has been hitting since yesterday. There are scattered reports of flooding, downed tree limbs, wires, that sort of thing. I'm sure we'll hear more on that as the day goes on.
Tornadoes could easily spin off this system on the Florida peninsula, and in fact, there have already been a couple tornado warnings this morning
Elsa will move inland across the Southeast later today and tonight. But since the storm is lopsided, with almost all of its bad weather to the east of its center, tropical storm conditions will continue in coastal areas from Georgia through North Carolina.
Usually, tropical systems weaken over land and Elsa will, but since a good chunk of its activity will be over coastal waters, gusty winds and heavy rain will continue.
ELSA AND NEW ENGLAND
Tropical Storm Elsa is one ingredient making for some interesting weather up here in New England.
As is common with East Coast tropical systems, a cold front is stalling out well north of the storm.
Early this morning, the front was through central Vermont and New Hampshire, meaning that awful humidity from yesterday has been routed.
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| The anvil cloud from an approaching thunderstorm last evening in St. Albans, Vermont heralded the eventual arrival of another badly needed downpour. While only few areas received beneficial rain Tuesday, widespread, heavier rain is in the forecast for Vermont tomorrow. |
Southern New England will have a rinse and repeat day. Yesterday, it was horribly hot and humid there, with severe thunderstorms. Today, the same, although the severe storms won't be a widespread as yesterday.
Up here in Vermont, some areas got needed rain yesterday, but some kind of missed out.
Here in St. Albans, I lucked out with a third of an inch of rain early in the morning, then 0.4 inches more from an evening downpour.
Today, showers will scoot across Vermont west to east north of the front. It won't rain hard, with most of us getting a tenth of an inch or less.
The main show is tomorrow and tomorrow night. We're still in line to get that Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE.
As described yesterday, a PRE is an area of heavy rain that often sets up pretty far to the north and west of a tropical storm or hurricane.
Although PRE's can cause some nasty flooding, this one will do more good than harm. It won't end the drought and dry conditions, but the expected one to three inches of rain will surely help.
In a few spots the rain Thursday into early Friday might come down a bit too hard, causing local small stream and street flooding here in Vermont. That's especially true in spots that have missed out on beneficial rains in recent days.
The ground in those dry areas is hard from the dry weather, so there might be more runoff than usual.
NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has Vermont in a slight risk zone for some flash flooding later Thursday.
Tropical Storm Elsa will blow through southeastern New England Friday, with heavy rain there, and possibly some damaging winds along the coast. If it takes a somewhat inland track, there could even be a tornado or two in southeastern New England.
Up here in Vermont, we'll slowly start to dry out later on Friday.
Because of the clouds and rain, it will be quite cool again in Vermont today through Friday before temperatures get up to near normal levels over the weekend.
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