Elsa Hitting Florida, Missing Vermont, But, Maybe A Good Dump Of Rain?

Tropical Storm Elsa blasting the Florida Keys and 
southwestern parts of that state this morning 

UPDATE:

Tropical Storm Elsa now seems destined to become a hurricane by the time it hits northwestern Florida early tomorrow.

Despite a relatively hostile environment for hurricanes, its top winds had increased to 70 mph by mid afternoon today.

If winds nudge up just slightly more, which now seems likely, Elsa will become a Category 1 hurricane at landfall.

The storm does appear healthier than it did this morning, with thunderstorms trying to wrap westward around the center, despite upper level winds trying to hold back those storms more to the east of Elsa's center. 

As described below, whether Elsa is a high end tropical storm or low end hurricane, it doesn't make that much difference.

Either way, almost all of western Florida is experiencing, or will experience the risk of storm surge flooding along the coast. That's the biggest threat from the storm, so people in low lying areas ought to get out of the way, if they haven't already. 

Inland flooding is another issue. The winds will be strong enough to cause damage to trees and power lines, and power outages are becoming a problem in Florida. Well-built structures should withstand the winds just fine, but flimsy ones might not. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Tropical Storm Elsa, as expected, is menacing Florida and other parts of the southeastern United States today.  

This storm will eventually pass east of New England later this week, which means it will have no direct effects here in Vermont. Though some indications are beginning to surface that Elsa could actually pass over eastern New England, we'll see. 

In any event, there's a shot at the weather here in Vermont turning kind of interesting due to some indirect effects of Elsa.  

Tropical Storm Elsa, on the verge of  becoming a 
hurricane, looks stronger and more organized 
this afternoon than it did this morning

More on that in a moment, but first let's focus on what's going on today in Florida. That's the main weather news of the day after all. 

As of 8 a.m. today, Tropical Storm Elsa was 55 miles west of Key West, Florida. It had top winds of 60 mph and was heading before it makes landfall late tonight or early tomorrow morning in what is known as the Big Bend area of Florida. 

That's the area in northwestern Florida at the top of the peninsula that curves westward, along the northern shores of the Gulf of Mexico.

A hurricane watch is now in effect for most of the Florida west coast, all the way from near Fort Myers, up through Sarasota and Tampa all the way to a little southeast of Tallahassee. 

Experts don't think Tropical Elsa will blow up into a huge hurricane, but it could strengthen to a Category 1 storm, with winds of 75 mph or a little greater. The warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico would help feed the storm. Also, Elsa's forward speed is now about 12 mph. 

That's a much slower forward speed than a couple days ago, when Elsa was over the Caribbean.  A faster forward speed can disrupt the circulation, and also give it less time over water to strengthen. 

There are factors that would prevent Elsa from strengthening much. Those include some strong-ish upper level winds that would help pull thunderstorms away from Elsa's center, thereby weakening it 

Also, dry air is trying to get sucked into Elsa's western flank, which would help choke it off, says the National Hurricane Center. 

Overall, it doesn't really matter too much whether Elsa is a strong tropical storm or lower end hurricane at landfall.

There's still going to be plenty of problems with strong winds, dangerous coastal storm surges inland flooding and maybe even a few tornadoes on the Florida peninsula. 

A heavily built up, low lying western Florida is in the path of Elsa's strong, gusty rain bands. Plus, the eastern half of Elsa is the strongest and that's the part that will rumble over Florida's Gulf Coast. 

So yeah, there will probably be a lot of damage.

ELSA AND YOU

Tropical Storm Elsa, weakening inland, will spread flooding rains through the Southeast this week, then head off or along the coast, passing by Cape Cod sometime on Friday.

With northward moving tropical systems on the East Coast, you often get an area of heavy rain well to the north and northwest of the storm center. 

This is sometimes called a Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE, and is most likely to happen if a stalled weather front is hung up somewhere north of the path of a tropical storm.  This can sometimes happen as far as 600 miles north or northwest of the storm. 

A PRE can sometimes cause a lot of flooding as rains with them can be torrential. 

Something like this might set up somewhere over New York or central or northern New England toward Thursday.  A PRE is hard to predict.  Sometimes they look like they might develop and then it ends up as a giant nothingburger.  

If this rainfall forecast comes true, Vermont would see
 anywhere from 1.5 inches (light purple) to three inches 
(red) of still-needed rain over the next seven days.
We'll see if this actually comes true!

It's even harder to predict exactly where these rain storms might set up. 

In any event, we have a chance at getting some decent rains in Vermont from this set up around Thursday.  So far, it doesn't look like any rain that does come will get way out of hand.  But we could be in for another beneficial soaking. 

I'd take any rainfall forecast with a grain of salt. Still, current forecasts, for what they're worth,  call for a half inch to an inch and half of rain Thursday and Thursday night across Vermont. 

Expect forecasts to shift upward or downward before the event. Also, expect the predicted bullseye of heaviest rain to move around quite a bit, too.

If we do get this rain, it would be in addition to the nice soaking over this past weekend in central and southern Vermont. 

Northern Vermont has partly missed out on the rain, but another third of an inch came down early this morning around my place in St. Albans, Vermont. We need frequent bouts of decent rains over the next few months to erase drought and dry conditions in Vermont. So if it wants to rain, we'll take it! 

In the meantime, today will be quite warm and humid, but we have another spell of cool weather coming in, though not as chilly as over the weekend.  A front separating clammy air to the north and humidity to the south will stall somewhere in southern New England tomorrow.

Northern Vermont, furthest away from the front,  will stay coolest today and tomorrow.  Highs will stay at or below 70 degrees both days. 

It'll turn at least seasonably warm this weekend.