A Humid Spell: Let's See How Much Rain That Actually Brings

The sky looked unsettled and vaguely threatening outside
my St. Albans, Vermont home this morning. We'll wait
and see as to whether this results in any rain later
today. 

 While much of southern and central New England is saying enough with the rain already, we're still waiting for our share in northern Vermont.  

We at least have a shot at some today, and again Friday and Saturday.  But we'll see how that pans out. 

A band of rain did make it into northern Vermont Tuesday morning, which managed to deposit a half inch on Burlington and a quarter inch here in St. Albans. We'll take anything we can get. 

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and heavy rain came as close as the western Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley of New York Tuesday afternoon and evening, but were held at bay from Vermont by some stable air from offshore New England waters that was brought here by southeast winds.

Today, that stable air has been flushed out and a disturbance in the atmosphere is set to shoot off some showers and storms over Vermont and surrounding areas, especially after noon.

The question is where will the best heavy rainers set up and how widespread will they be?  We'll just have to wait and see how things play out this afternoon.

Best case scenario is more activity north, where the rain is needed and less south, where it isn't. But things don't always go that way. It's always luck of the draw.

One or two storms might have a hefty enough downpour to cause some local street flooding or some washouts and damage to gravel driveways and roads, especially on steep hills. The overwhelming majority of us won't get boffo amounts of rain. This will be just isolated cases.

The National Weather Service Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk for flash flooding, which does mean isolated instances of that kind of trouble.  Just watch yourself, especially on the roads, if there's a torrential downpour where you are. 

Don't drive onto a street or road that has water covering it.  You won't know how deep it is, or whether the road has been washed away beneath that water.

There is a chance a few storms could be strong to severe today.  To be sure, it won't be a widespread event, but a couple storms could knock down some trees or power lines here or there. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal risk zone for severe storms, the lowest of five levels of alerts for nasty storms. 

Despite continued warmth and humidity, it doesn't look like there will be any rain to speak of Thursday. High pressure will promote sinking air, which fights off chances of any pop up showers and storms.  One or two might manage to get going in the hills and mountains, but don't bet the farm on it. 

A nearly stalled weather front will set up shop overhead or nearby Friday and Saturday, setting up the chance of some heavy rainers - like it or not. Too soon to say who gets what and how much.