Quick Evening Update On Wannabe Hurricane or Tropical Storm Sara

The clouds associated with Wannabe Sara looked much
thicker and more organized than this morning, but still
not organized enough to be a tropical storm.

 The thunderstorms in the Caribbean that the National Hurricane Center have been watching closely a got a lot better organized as we went through the day. 

As of late afternoon, we still don't have a well-defined circulation with this thing, so for now, NHC has settled on temporarily giving it the clunky name Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen.

If it develops a circulation and increases its sustained winds to at least 39 mph, this mess will be renamed Tropical Storm Sara.  That transformation into Sara could happen at any time. I'm guessing tonight or tomorrow morning. 

This looks really ominous for Honduras. Wannabe Sara is headed that way, and forecasts indicate it will stall near that nation's coastline Friday and the weekend. So, it'll basically sit there and dump buckets of rain there for days. 

One to two feet of rain could easily fall on northern Honduras because of this storm. Needless to say the flooding and landslides if that happens would be catastrophic.  

This sort of reminds me of Hurricane Mitch in 1998, which caused immense flooding in Honduras and Nicaragua that claimed 11,000 lives. Mitch was much stronger than Sara is expected to become, so let's hope things go much better than they did in 1998.

After its expected big stall, Wannabe Sara is expected to start moving northwestward, probably crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula next week.   It could move slowly over land and greatly weaken. Or it could brush the edge of the peninsula and maintain a decent amount of strength. 

That has eventual implications for Florida. Uncertain long range forecasts have Wannabe Sara emerging into the Gulf of Mexico and then heading north and east toward Florida. Might not happen, but that's the consensus for now.

The question is, will Sara at that point be a hurricane, or will be a sloppy, weak mess by the time it gets to Florida, if it does. 

We'll have to wait and see 

Believe It Or Not, ANOTHER Hurricane Threat Looming?

That cluster of thunderstorms you see in the lower left
of this morning's satellite image - east of Central
America and well south of Cuba, are what forecasters
believe will become tropical storm or hurricane Sara

 It's still technically hurricane season, so you can still get such storms this time of year.

But the end of Hurricane Season 2024 is likely setting records for being busy. 

I'm saying that because meteorologists are convinced another tropical storm or hurricane will form in the Caribbean Sea very soon. And it could get strong, according to some computer projections. If and when it does get going, they'll name it Sara. 

The problem now is - since the thing hasn't officially formed yet -  we don't yet know where Wannabe Sara will go and how much of a threat it's going to become. 

But yes, it's possible it could hit Florida, but were way too early to start panicking over that possibility. It's just as plausible that Wannabe Sara would entire miss Florida.

 Or hit, but be in such a weakened state by the time it gets there that it wouldn't be that big of a deal. Still, a worrying percentage of the computer model forecasts bring this thing into Florida next week. So stay tuned to this bat channel.

After three strikes by destructive hurricanes this year (Debby, Helene, Milton), Florida could certainly do without another such storm. Two other hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. this year. (Beryl in Texas, Francine in Louisiana). Five U.S. hurricane strikes in one year is very rare.

CURRENT SITUATION

As of this morning, Wannabe Sara hadn't organized into anything like a tropical storm yet. It didn't look like it had a noticeable circulation. But the mess of clouds with this thing was getting better organized. It's over water that's much warmer than usual for this time of year. And the type of strong upper level winds that could smack down a potential tropical storm just aren't there. 

Climate change has helped make ocean water in the tropics warmer than in the past and extends the warmth later into the season. So I guess we shouldn't be all that surprised that given the right conditions, a late season hurricane becomes more likely. 

Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes are scheduled to fly into this thing later today to have a look under the hood. That'll provide a lot more data on what's going on with Wannabe Sara.

Many forecasts seem to have Wannabe Sara meandering in the western Caribbean Sea for awhile later this week and weekend before heading north. If it stays over water and threads the needle on its northward path over water between Cancun and Cuba, it could enter the Gulf of Mexico as a major, threat.

If Wannabe Sara bumps into or over land in Central America and Mexico, then it would be a weaker, lesser threat later on. 

BUSY LATE SEASON

Since late October, there have already been three tropical storms or hurricanes, which is awfully busy for a time of year when hurricane activity  usually wanes. Tiny Hurricane Oscar made landfall in eastern Cuba back on October 19 with top winds of 80 mph. That storm caused damage in Cuba and parts of the Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Patty (which spent most of its life as a hybrid subtropical storm) harassed the Azores in early November. Its location was oddly far north and east in the Atlantic, especially for that late in the season.

Then, category 3 Hurricane Rafael made landfall in western Cuba with top winds of 115 mph and caused a lot of damage. It then moved into the central Gulf of Mexico and attained top winds of 120 mph, a record strength for such a late season hurricane in that location. Luckily, Rafael then dissipated without ever hitting land again.