Where Are All The Hurricanes? They're Unfortunately Still On The Way

Satellite view of Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean
on July 2. Since then, there has pretty much been
no tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. But experts
say the forecasted very busy hurricane season is
still on the way, with things likely ramping up 
big time during August. 

This year's hurricane season got off to its expected horrible start in late June when Hurricane Beryl, the strongest hurricane in the Caribbean for so early in the season, started its horrible path of catastrophe in the Windward Islands. 

On into early July, Beryl caused disaster and heartache in Jamaica, Mexico, Texas (especially the Houston area), Arkansas, the Ohio Valley, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and Nova Scotia. 

Since then, pretty much nothing, thank goodness. Except a nothing burger Tropical Storm Chris on June 30, which lasted barely 12 hours and never produced winds much above tropical storm force. 

This has people asking, "I thought this was supposed to be a super-charged, incredibly busy hurricane season."  

As recently as July 9, the closely watched Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast was updated to actually slightly increase the expected number of storms from its previous already record breaking busy prediction. 

So where are the tropical storms and hurricanes? As of Wednesday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center was forecasting no tropical storm development for at least 48 hours, probably even more. 

Ominously, they're still coming. 

Let's just say the National Hurricane Center isn't granting any PTO to its employees in August, September and October. 

After Beryl's departure, vast clouds of dust from the Sahara Desert blew westward across the Atlantic Ocean, precisely in the band in the tropics where hurricanes are most likely to form. 

Saharan dust tends to stifle tropical storm development. These clouds of Saharan dust over the Atlantic are very common in June and July, which is one reason why tropical storms and hurricanes are relatively rare during the first half of summer. 

This year's July dust is by one measure the second-densest since 2002.  However, like virtually every year in history, the dust is getting set to sharply diminish as we head into August.  That'll help tropical storms form. 

There's also a natural cycle that happens every few weeks in which the air over the areas in the Atlantic where hurricanes want to form that causes sinking air. Sinking air prevents the thunderstorms that are wannabe tropical storms from forming. 

That sinking cycle has been over the storm forming region recently, but is now starting to move on. 

So: The dust is going away, the sinking air is going away, the oceans keep heating up more and more, and that's jet fuel for hurricanes.  We're also shifting into a global La Nina pattern which should really start to gets its legs steady in August. 

All those signs point to the Atlantic Ocean exploding with storms during August, especially in the second half, when hurricanes really start to form easily in normal years, much less setups like we're seeing now. 

Already, some long range forecasts are starting to detect signs of a possible tropical storm or storms forming in the first week of August. 

Where all the expected tropical storms and hurricanes go will determine whether we'll have more disasters and calamities like Beryl. 

This And That: A Vermont Spring Milestone, And Weird Weather Elsewhere

Animal tracks in the snow last evening in my
St. Albans, Vermont yard. Looks like they had been
sculpted by wind and sun during the day. 

 It was cold out there in Vermont this morning, as expected. 

But look at it this way, it'll very likely be a long time before you see weather this cold again.   

Temperatures were in the teens this morning, with some single digits in the cold hollows. It was below zero in some of the cold hollows Sunday morning. 

Unless something incredibly strange happens in April, these are the coldest temperatures you'll see until November or December. 

Don't get your spring mood on just yet. It's hard to do anyway with all the snow on the ground in most of Vermont. 

 Also, it pretty much always snows in late March and April. We probably won't have any more mega-snows, but I pretty much guarantee you'll see snow again before spring really arrives. 

Since the weather is quiet out there in Vermont today, I found some this and that weird things to talk about  elsewhere.

Kansas County Everything

Last evening, portions of a county in northwest Kansas managed to find themselves under a tornado warning, a blizzard warning and a dust storm advisory. The tornado threat arrived ahead of a cold front. Radar images definitely showed rotation in a severe thunderstorm, but it's unclear whether the tornado actually touched down not far from Oakley, Kansas.

The big thunderstorm's strong winds stirred up the dust.  Following the cold front, strong north winds and snow developed the blizzard later at night and this morning. 

The temperature in Oakley went from 69 degree Sunday afternoon to 24 degrees with a wind chill of 6 above early this morning. 

Talk about wait a minute and the weather will change. I don't think I want to live in northwest Kansas. Too much going on. 

Cuban Supercell

Supercell thunderstorms, those persistent, intense, big hail producing, usually rotating and sometimes tornado-producing storms, are a fixture in the United States Plains and Midwest the spring and early summer. They're common in other parts of the world too.

But not Cuba. However, a persistent supercell swept across parts or the island Friday night, surely causing wind and hail damage. However, we have no confirmed reports. Supercells are extremely rare in Cuba but they've happened before.

In 2019, a supercell spawned a tornado in Havana that killed 3 people and left extensive damage. Another strong tornado hit parts of Cuba back in 1940.

Friday night's storms also created rotating thunderstorms that threatened the Florida Keys with a risk of tornadoes, but none are known to have touched down. 

Heat Index Of 144 Degrees?

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil is a hot city. You know, the famed beaches and all?

But recently, a section of Rio had a seemingly impossible 144 degree heat index.   The heat index takes into account both the heat and humidity  to give you a sense of how hot it feels.

A heat index that high is obviously extremely dangerous, and heat waves can cause multiple deaths, but I have no news as to what happened in and around Rio with this torrid weather. 

Much of Brazil, including Rio de Janeiro have had months of record breaking heat due to a combination of El Nino and climate change. 

  

Keeping Up With U.S. Storms: So Far, Lots Of Damage, Relatively Few Injuries

While much of the nation struggled with rough, even 
dangerous weather on Tuesday, we were blessed in 
Vermont with a spectacular spring afternoon 

 So far, the wild weather in much of the United States is playing out as expected. Tuesday brought tornadoes, blizzards, high winds, wildfires and dust storms to vast swaths of the United States.  

Warnings and alerts from the National Weather Service and local meteorologists seem to be doing their job, as, knock on wood, there hasn't been that many injuries or deaths to report, which is a glimmer of hope, I suppose. 

That said, today is going to be the most dangerous day for tornadoes this week. Possibly the most dangerous day so far this spring. 

A huge swath from the southern Great Lakes all the way down to the Gulf Coast is under the gun for tornadoes, high winds and gigantic hail.  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center warns that some of today's tornadoes could be quite strong and long-lasting. This is especially true in a broad area of the Mississippi Valley from central Missouri and Illinois south to much of Louisiana. 

I've lost track of how many times this year the Gulf Coast states have been threatened and hit by severe weather and tornadoes. The National Weather Service office in Birmingham, Alabama last evening tweeted  this message:  "Dear Mother Nature. We're tired. An uneventful 2nd half of April would be much appreciated. Sincerely, All Southeast US NWS Offices."

Yesterday's tornadoes focused pretty much in spots where forecasters said there was the greatest chance of rough weather: Iowa and Texas.  Several large tornadoes formed in Iowa, but the mostly stayed in rural areas. There were reports of damage to farm and houses in small towns. 

In Texas, an even worse tornado injured 23 people and caused a lot of damage, especially in the town of Salado.  Hail up to the size of grapefruit accompanied the storm. 

A very large area of the nation, the areas in yellow, orange and
red are at risk for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms today.
Dark green means just a marginal risk of severe weather 

Snow/Blizzard

In North Dakota, residents are hunkered down for a second day of an epic blizzard that is still forecast to dump as much as three feet of snow on parts of the state.  It's already being described as the "storm of the century" up there. The only storm to rival this one in recent memory was in April, 1997.

Temperatures are remarkably low for this time of year in North Dakota, too. High temperatures today through Sunday are forecast to be in the 20s to low 30s. Normal highs there this time of year are in the low to mid 50s. 

So far at least, no deaths or serious injuries have been reported in the blizzard. 

Further west, Portland, Oregon by far set a record for the latest measurable snowfall on record. Remarkably, that record could fall today as more unseasonable snow is possibility.  

Wildfires/Dust

Wildfires broke out as expected in the southern Plains and Southwest yesterday.  The worst fire was in New Mexico, where a blaze destroyed several homes and forced thousands to evacuate. The risk of wildfires remains pretty high through the weekend in these areas. 

Vermont Update

Here in Vermont all that storminess in the nation is keeping us in an active, but not super dangerous weather regime.

A warm front will bring showers later today and tonight mostly to northern Vermont. A strong cold front is still expected tomorrow. There might even be a thunderstorm or two with this in the southern half of Vermont.   Some of the showers and storms might have some briefly heavy downpours with them. But they will be moving along pretty fast, so I don't see much of any kind of flood risk.

A slot of dry air moves in Friday, so we should have at least partly sunny skies. It will be quite windy, with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. Temperatures should manage to get into the low 60s, but that will be in the last mild day, probably for quite awhile.

Another sharp cold front will arrive Saturday with another batch of rain and much lower temperatures. It'll stay a little cooler than normal at least through Tuesday. 

 

A Dust Storm On European Ski Slopes?

Dust from the Sahara desert at a ski resort in 
Switzerland last week. 

 A huge blast of dust from the Sahara Desert swept through large parts of Europe this week, turning the sky and the snow on ski slopes orange.  

Dust from the Sahara does find its into Europe pretty frequently if there's a good surge of southerly winds from Africa. 

This one, though, carried much more dust than usual.  

According to the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang:

"But it's rare for such episodes to be so widespread or intense. In addition to the dusky skies, sand may accompany rainfall in some locales, making for a shower of gritty mud."

At Spanish ski slopes, it looked like the skiers were making turn on reddish brown sand. Only when the skiers made their turns did the white snow underneath the sand make an appearance. 

Saharan dust and sand is more mobile than most desert soils, so it gets around. Wapo/Capital Weather Gang likens it to the texture of makeup, really lightweight and powdery. It really can go anywhere. 

Strong trade winds in the summer bring dust from the Sahara all the way to the Americas, creating yellow, hazy sunsets to places like Miami, New Orleans, Houston, Caracas and Rio De Janeiro. 

When the dust lands in South America, that's a good thing. It's loaded with dead microorganisms that contain lots of phosphorus.  It turns out the dust is a critical fertilizer for the Amazon rain forest.

The annual dump of 22,000 tons of phosphorus a year on the Amazon from Sarah dust is about equal the amount lost annually to rain and flooding, so it's a nice balance.

The Saharan dust that winds up on the mountain summits and ski areas of Europe isn't such a great thing, at least in the era of climate change.  And it's not great for the lungs of Europeans trying to breathe the air.

As the Associated Press reports, air pollution alerts were issued in Spain, Portugal and parts of France. Rain in Paris and London left blobs of muddy Saharan dirt on cars. 

In the mountains, the reddish grit obviously makes the snow a darker color than the gleaming white you'd expect.

With the increasing sun angle in the Northern Hemisphere this time of year, the discolored snow will absorb more of the sun's rays that white powder, which reflects the sun's heat back out to space.

This situation could lead to an earlier melt season, getting rid of the season's snowpack earlier in the summer. If it's a hot European summer, the dust could eventually accelerate the erosion of long-standing but melting glaciers in places like the high Alps. 

The dust will be a very small player in the climate change game, but even tiny setbacks don't help. 

Saharan Dust Turns European Skies, Snow Orange

Dust from the Sahara Desert turned this cross country ski
course in Switzerland orange. Photo by Salvator Di Nolfi/EPA

 The sky and the snow turned orange in some parts of Europe last week and weekend   The reason? Dust from the Sahara desert swept in from the south. 

The dust turned the sky orange over parts of France, Switzerland, Spain and other parts of Europe. The dust and sand settled on ski areas up in the mountains, turning the snow orange as well. 

Dust from the Sahara Desert does get blown into Europe a few times a year. This episode was more pronounced than usual.  

In this case, a storm strengthened over far southwestern Europe. This produced southerly winds over parts of the Sahara Desert that picked up some pretty big plumes of dust. The south winds blew across the Mediterranean Sea and into Europe, where the dust created the orange haze and sifted down from the sky and onto high elevation ski slopes. 

That dust in the snow can make it melt a little faster in the spring.  White snow reflects the sun's energy back out to space. Darker colors in the snow absorb the heat, making the snow melt faster. 

Sahara Desert dust really gets around, by the way. It sometimes goes as far north as the United Kingdom.

In the summer and autumn, huge plumes of dust sometimes go east to west across the Atlantic Ocean, squelching hurricane activity and causing hazy skies in the Caribbean Sea and parts of South and North America, including the United States.