It's Official: World, Nation Had Hottest Year in 2024

A red, red world in 2024. It was the hottest year in 
history for Earth. The dark red areas are record warmest
A total of 3.3 billion people endured their hottest
year on record. 

 It's now officials: 2024 was the world's hottest year on record. 

Weeks and months ago, virtually everyone was saying 2024 would be the hottest year, but not the number crunchers have chewed over the data, and have made it official. 

Here's the official word from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information:

"In 2024, global surface temperature was 2.32 degrees F (1.29 degrees C) above the 20th-century average. This ranks as the highest global temperature in the period of 1850-2024, beating the next warmest year (2023) by 0.18 degrees F (0.10 degrees C).

The 10 warmest years since 1850 have all occurred in the past decade. In 2024, global temperatures exceed the pre-industrial (1850-1900) average by 2.63 degrees F. (1.46 degrees C)."

If you compare 2024 to the pre-industrial average, this past  year was the first one that was as much as 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than that pre-industrial average. 

The hottest areas relative to average were in the Arctic, northeastern North America and eastern Europe. 

The only sort of cool areas on Earth in 2024 were in southern Greenland, eastern Antarctica, the southeastern Pacific Ocean and Drake Passage. 

Not every single place on Earth had its hottest year on record. But when you take the sum of all the temperatures all around the globe, the average ends up the hottest. 

Also, according to Berkeley Earth 3.3 billion people  or 40 percent of the world's population (including the nearly 650,000 people here in Vermont) actually did experience their hottest year on record. 

All of the top ten warmest years on Earth have been since 2015. 

Last year helps cement the fact that the rate of global warming is accelerating. Since 1850, the rate of warming has been 0.11 degrees Fahrenheit. Since 1975, the rate of warming has zoomed up to 0.36 degrees Fahrenheit per decade.

Sea level rise is also accelerating. The pace in 2024 was about 4.5 millimeters or 0.18 inches per year. The pace of sea level rise has doubled since 1992.  

For you skeptics out there, NOAA's stats on how hot 2024 was match what other major scientific organizations concluded.

NASA, the European Copernicus Climate Change Service, Berkeley Earth and the Met Office of Great Britain all said 2024 was conclusively the hottest on record.

As for 2025, NOAA is giving this year only a 4 percent chance of beating out 2024 for the title of hottest year on record. La Nina, which cools the Earth a little bit, is in all swing, although it's not exactly the strongest one ever

Still - and I think this is kind of remarkable - is that scientists think 2025 will hotter than 2016, which had been Earth's hottest year on record before 2023 and 2024 came along. 

  DECEMBER

The global year ended on a predictably hot note. December was the second warmest on record, exceeded only by 2023.  

In December, the northern hemisphere was especially toasty. All but the East Coast of the United States was far warmer than average. So was virtually all of Canada, the Arctic, central and eastern Europe and Russia, especially Siberia. 

The only vaguely cool areas relative to average - and they weren't really cooler than the 20th century average - were north-central Africa, parts of Asia, southern South America, a decent chunk of Antarctica and southern Greenland. 

Arctic sea ice extent in December was the lowest in the 47 years satellites have been keeping tabs of the ice cover up there. 

December fit the entire pattern of 2024: And 2023 for that matter. Every month from June, 2023 through July, 2024 were record warmest. August through December, 2024 were second warmest, as the world "cooled" minusculely with the end of El Nino.   

It's still disconcerting that the world is still running just short of hottest. Maybe there will be temporary relief in January, 2025, as there have been some pretty strong cold snaps in the northern hemisphere. Perhaps January will be merely somewhere in the top ten warmest, not near the top. We'll find out in a few weeks. 

UNITED STATES IN 2024

It turns out 2024 was indeed the warmest year in the Lower 48 of the United States.

The warmest areas relative to average were Minnesota, areas around the Great Lakes, northern New England and some spots in Texas and New Mexico.  

Record hot year in the U.S. 2. Those in dark red
had a record hot year. Dark orange (most of the
nation) is much above normal. Tiny areas of
light orange are merely above normal. 

Seventeen states - including here in Vermont - had their warmest year on record in 2024. All but two states in the Lower 48 were in the top five warmest list. The "coldest" state in this list was Washington, which was only the seventh warmest. 

The United States had 27 weather/climate disasters in 2024 that each cost at least $1 billion, the second most in a calendar year.  The total cost of these 27 disaster was $182.7 billion, the fourth highest on record, adjusted for inflation.

Of course, 2025 is getting off to a terrible start. The one billion dollar disaster - the California wildfires - so far this year might well have exceeded the cost of all 27 last year, and that disaster is still unfolding and causing additional damage. 

Still to go in 2025, we have yet to get through the spring tornado season, summer flood season and hurricane season, all the types of storms that can cause billions in damage. And who knows weather the West Coast.

Last year was also really bad for tornadoes, too. We had at least 1,735 confirmed tornadoes. There might have been as many as 1,882 U.S. tornadoes in 2024, based on preliminary data.   Strong tornadoes, EF-2 or worse were more frequent than any year since the historically bad and tragic year of 2011, which brought 1612 tornadoes

Tornado deaths were far fewer in 2024 than in 2011, though. Last year, tornadoes caused 53 U.S. deaths. That compares favorably to 2011, when 553 Americans died in tornadoes. 

 

Research Group Pins Blame For Big 2024 Global Weather Disasters On Climate Change

The organization World Weather Attribution blames
many of the world's worst weather disasters of 2024
largely on climate change. 

 A research group says that many of the most extreme weather disasters of 2024 were made worse than they otherwise would have due to climate change. 

The group World Weather Attribution issued their 2024 summary on December 27.

Key findings include:

-- Climate change contributed to the deaths of at least 3,700 people the displacement of 26 weather events the group studies in 2024.  They explain: "These were just a small fraction of the 219 events that met our trigger criteria, used to identify the most impactful weather events. It's like the total number of people killed in extreme weather events intensified by climate change this year is in the tens, or hundreds of thousands."

--Globally, climate change added on average 41 additional days of dangerous heat in 2024 that threatened people's health. The countries the had the most dangerous heat days in 2024 were mostly small islands and developing states that don't have the infrastructure to protect people from the heat. 

---Although many of 2024's extreme events were in part influence by El Nino, especially in the early part of the year, in most cases climate change played a larger role than El Nino in making these individual problems - such as a huge drought in the Amazon - worse. 

--- Of 16 floods WWA studied, 15 were driven by rainfall amplified by climate change. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leasing to heavier downpours. Some of the floods had huge death tolls due to shortcomings in storm warnings and evacuation plans. 

--- Warmer seas in general strengthen tropical cyclones. Thirty of 38 Atlantic hurricanes between 2019 and 2023 were made noticeably stronger than they otherwise would have been without climate change. That climate change is also increasing the risk of the Philippines being hit be strong typhoons.

An example not mentioned in the WWA report is the fact that in November, the Philippines were hit by four powerful typhoons within ten days. 

World Weather Attribution works with scientists to quantify how climate change influences to the intensity and likelihood of extreme weather events. They do so, usually immediately after an extreme event using weather observations and computer modeling.  The organization also evaluates how existing vulnerabilities worse the impacts of those extreme weather events. 

WWA tries to make their analyses public as soon as they become available, very often days or weeks after the event.  

That's good, since these events are still hot topics in the media not long after they occur. If these reports are made public months or years after these disasters, the publics minds will have long since moved on to the next topic. 

In their end of year report, WWA had a few "New Year's resolutions" to pass on. Those include efforts to accelerate shifts away from fossil fuel use, improvements in warning procedures around the world to get people out of the way of sudden disasters, and more real-time reporting of heat deaths since this problem is underreported.  

Vermont Wasn't Alone: More Than 350 U.S. Weather Stations Had Hottest Year In 2024

A small thunderstorm pops up over Lake Champlain near
South Hero, Vermont on a hot, steamy July, 2024 day. 
Nearby Burlington ended up having their hottest year
on record, as did more than 300 U.S. cities last year. 

When I said the other day that a couple cities in Vermont had their warmest year on record in 2024, we weren't exactly unique.  

Turns out Burlington, Vermont was among at least 299 United States sites that had their warmest year on record in the Lower 48.  Another 60 sites tied their records for warmest year.

Data are trickling in from other cities so this number might grow. 

This is more evidence hat we are living in a very different climatological world than we did just a few decades ago. If the climate were normal, most places would not have a record warm or cold year. But a roughly equal number of cities would have had a record warm or a record cold year. 

Not in 2024, that's for sure! 

Only three states - Delaware, Rhode Island and South Carolina - didn't have any cities reporting record breaking or record tying heat. 

That means the 2024 heat was widespread across the nation. Virtually everyone enjoyed or endured - depending on your perspective - a hot 2024, But it does seem it was most widespread from the Southwest, through Texas and parts of the Deep South. And also the interior Northeast and parts of the Great Lakes. 

In Vermont, the data set compiled by the Southeast Regional Climate Center says Burlington, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier and Woodstock had their hottest year on record in 2024.  Bennington tied the record for hottest year. 

Nearby cities that had their hottest year in 2024 include Albany in New York and Concord, Berlin and North Conway, New Hampshire.    

There were a couple spots that were coolish, at least by comparison. 

The heat was well distributed throughout the year. It wasn't just one standout month that skewed 2024 toward warmth. 

Some cities had more than 40 record highs distributed through the year, which is a lot. Pascagoula, Mississippi endured 56 days with record highs in 2024. San Antonio and Tampa had 56 such days. 

Phoenix, Arizona famously suffered through 21 consecutive days of record highs late September and October.  No American city had ever had that many consecutive record highs. 

Here in Vermont, Burlington managed just 11 record highs, but that's a lot for a single year when the records go back to the 1880s. There were no record lows in Burlington in 2024.

The heat in Vermont has lasted years. Each of the past five years are among Burlington's top 10 warmest. 

Since 2000, Burlington has had 46 record highs, and just one record low.

Nighttimes during 2024 in the United States were also particularly oppressive, especially near the overheated Gulf of Mexico. Brownsville, Texas and Key West, Florida each had more than 40 nights the were record warmer.  

Analysts could not find any cities that came anywhere close to their top 10 list of coolest years. The closest to that was probably Los Angeles, as measure at the airport. Winter storms early in 2024 kept the city cool. The airport is also close to the coast, so summer and autumn breezes off the Pacific Ocean kept inland heat waves at bay.

So Los Angeles was tied for their 26th coolest year out of the past 80 years. Not a big deal. 

Final figures aren't quite in yet, but either 2012 or 2024 will turn out to be the hottest year on record in the United States.  The bets are 2024 will be the hottest, we'll find out within days with NOAA releases their monthly report. 

Climatologists are also already sure that last year was the world hottest on record, breaking the mark set just a year earlier. 

We Did It AGAIN: 2024 Hottest Year On Record In Vermont

A thunderhead erupts in hot, humid weather in June
in St. Albans Bay. As measured in Burlington, 2024 was
easily the hottest year on record, breaking the
mark set just last year, in 2023.

Yes, Vermont had its hottest year on record in 2024. And it wasn't even close. 

On this date last year, I wrote a post about 2023 being the hottest year on record and could not believe we'd had four years in a row that were among Burlington's top 10 warmest.

Now in 2024, we've done it again, the fifth year in a row we scored in the top 10 list of warmest years. 

This year also knocked 1953 and 1898 out the Number 10 spot of warmest years in Burlington. That means all of the top 10 warmest years have happened since 1998, and nine of the top 10 have hit since 2010.  

That is simply bonkers for a period of record that goes back to the 1880s.  Climate change is really being felt in Vermont. 

Even more bonkers is the margin by which we broke 2023's mark for hottest year.  The average temperature in Burlington in 2024 was 50.9 degrees. That's 0.9 degrees - almost a full degree hotter than 2023.

That might not sound like that big a record breaker but a the hottest year on record by nearly a degree is insane if you consider we're averaging out 366 days (2024 was a leap year).

Since 2024 was the hottest year on record by such a large margin in Burlington, I'm going to go out on a limb and say you probably won't see a year as hot as the recently ended one for quite awhile, several years at least.

Then again, as I demonstrated a year ago, I can be proven wrong. We'll see. With climate change running on, though, it's inevitable we will have a year in Vermont even hotter than 2024. Unless you're quite elderly, you'll probably see a year or two or more toastier than the last one. 

It looks like St. Johnsbury also had its warmest year on record with a mean temperature of 49.1 degrees.   

That said, I have a feeling 2025 will break the streak and not become one of our top ten hottest years on record. Even with climate change, you need to have a cooler year eventually.  Today's mild weather notwithstanding, it looks like  January is going to be quite chilly, which would help drag down 2025's overall average temperature. 

After all, 2024 brought us no substantially cooler than normal months, and even many of the warmer years have at least one chilly month. Incredibly, eight months in 2024 in Burlington were among the top ten warmest. 

Burlington wasn't alone in seeing 2024 as the hottest. We'll soon have stats that show many cities in the United States just had their warmest year on record.  The United States  will probably see its hottest year on record as 2024. Plus, the world as a whole will see 2024 as its hottest year, though we won't have final numbers on that for a couple weeks .

Back here in Vermont, precipitation in 2024 was highly variable. Both in when it rained and snowed and where it rained. The summer was very wet, the autumn very dry. 

At Burlington, rainfall for the year was unremarkable. Total rainfall for the year there was 38.35 inches, which is just 0.82 inches above average

St. Johnsbury set a new record for rainiest year with 55.59 inches. That included an incredible 17.15 inches that fell just in the month of July.   Southern Vermont saw slightly below normal rainfall for the year. 

It was certainly an eventful year in Vermont, as we had several devastating floods, along with damaging wind storms, winter storms and oppressive heat. With climate change, extreme weather is becoming the norm in Vermont and many other places.

Expect plenty more weather weirdness in 2025. 

DECEMBER

December in Vermont broke the trend of warm months in 2024.  Most places saw temperatures near or just slightly below what is regarded as normal.  Remember, this is the "new normal," which is the average of temperatures between 1990 and 2020.

 Due to climate change those years were warmer than the 20th century average.  Had December, 2024's weather hit a half century ago, it would have been regarded as a little on the warm side. 

The biggest news of the month was when Burlington's temperature fell to minus 3 on December 22. That ended a record long 663 consecutive days above zero. 

A record or near record warm spell in the closing days of the month offset generally chillier than average conditions on several days either side of the Christmas holiday. 

Precipitation across Vermont was a little above average, which was good news after a remarkably dry autumn. Most of the precipitation fell on and around December 11, when 1.5 to as much as three inches of rain drenched the state.

Such a storm would have normally created some flooding, but it was so dry prior to the storm that there was little trouble with rainfall. 

 

Vermont's Biggest Weather Events, 2024: There Were A Lot Of Them

 Once again, 2024 brought Vermont an eventful, often destructive and painful weather year.    

High winds on January 10 toppled a large tree, which
crashed through this St. Albans, Vermont home. 

It will be among the warmest years on record again, much like several previous recent years.  More on that in a post coming along right around New Year's Day.  

The weather extremes of 2024 were all over the place, from wind to floods to drought to heat to cold. Though not that much cold.  The weather often turned destructive, sometimes tragic. 

Weather in Vermont has never been boring. But nowadays, probably because we're in the age of climate change, things are getting even further out of whack. 

Lots of extremes happened in 2024, so let's get into it:  

TWIN WINDS, JANUARY 10 AND 13

Two intense wind storms swept the Northeast including Vermont in mid-January. 

The first of the two hit on January 10. 

Winds gusted to 69 mph at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, their fourth highest wind gust on record.  Power was cut to 29,000 homes and businesses.

St. Albans was particularly hard hit, with at least three home virtually destroyed by falling trees, with several other houses suffering some damage. 

Along the New Hampshire and Maine coasts, the storm and wind generated a huge and in some case record storm surges which caused massive damage. A new storm a couple day later made everything there even worse 

That second storm hit on January 13, especially along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, where winds topped 80 mph in some spots. The wind blew the roof off a house in Richmond, and fallen trees again blocked numerous roads. Power outages in Vermont again reached a peak of about 29,000 customers. 

FEBRUARY

Another warm winter month. Record warmth on February 9-10  and 27-28 contributed to an average February temperature of 30.2, the third warmest on record. The high temperature of 65 degrees on February 28 would have been the hottest on record in Burlington if not for recent, even bigger February hot spells in 2017 and 2018.

BIG APRIL 3-5 SNOWSTORM

Damaged trees after 16 inches of wet, heavy snow
fell on St. Albans, Vermont in early April. 

One of the biggest April snowstorms on record blanketed the entire state. Biggest snow totals included 24 inches in Moretown in Killington, 21 inches in Underhill and Eden, and 20 inches at Brookfield and Stowe.

Burlington had 10 inches of snow on April 4, its third snowiest April day on record.

The snow was wet and heavy, causing widespread tree damage and power outages. 

VERMONT ECLIPSE GOOD  LUCK

Northern Vermont was in the direct path of the Big Solar Eclipse Of 2024.  It was widely expected that few of  us would see it, as on average we'd have an 80 percent of overcast skies that time of year. 

Instead, the Green Mountain State was blessed with fair skies. There was a broken layer of very thin, high clouds, but that augmented the experience by adding some odd sunset style colors to the sky during the big event. 

We had a second episode of celestial good luck when one of the biggest, brightest most extensive northern lights display graced much of the northern hemisphere as far south as Cuba on the night of May 10.

Though skies had been forecast to be mostly cloudy, most of the night ended up mostly clear in Vermont, allowing for great viewing of the rare event. 

JUNE 18-20 HEAT, STORMS

 Brief but intense heat wave, accompanied by severe thunderstorms in some areas. North Springfield had daily highs during the period of 98, 99 and 101. Union Village Dam in southeastern Vermont had 100 degree highs on two consecutive days. 

Flash flooding in South Burlington, Vermont following
intense storms on June 23. Some of the storms 
prompted tornado warnings, but none were known
to have touched down in Vermont. 

Burlington reached 96 degrees on June 19.  The low temperature that day in Burlington was 80 degrees, tying the record for the warmest overnight low of any day in more than 120 years of records.  

The heat was accompanied by strong storms in some parts of Vermont. After reaching 93 degrees on June 20, Burlington had about an inch of rain within 15 minutes with a storm wind gust of 48 mph.

 Trees came down in Burlington and Stowe, as a precursor to even bigger storms a few days later.

JUNE 23 TORNADO ALERTS AND FLASH FLOOD

A stalled warm front just to the north and an incoming cold front, combined with very humid air set the stage for a severe weather outbreak on June 23.  Forecasters had called for a risk of tornadoes, and in fact a handful of tornado warnings were issued in Vermont as radar showed notable rotation.

Wall clouds and possible funnels were reported, especially near Monkton, but no tornadoes are known to have touched down. There was some tree and power line damage from winds, but that damage appears to have been caused by straight-line winds. 

However, the supercell thunderstorms contained intense downpours, and the two strongest followed roughly the same path across north-central Vermont. The result was flash flooding, the worst of which hit around Stowe and areas around the Worcester Range. Washington County was subsequent declared a federal disaster area due to the flash flood damage.

This flash flood was just a foretaste of what was to come. 

JULY 10 FLOOD DISASTER

Another stalled warm front, and the remnants of Hurricane Beryl caused a new extreme flash flood disaster on the exact anniversary of a similar calamity that hit exactly a year earlier. 

A tractor fell into the ravine created by this road
washout near Hinesburg,  Vermont on July 10.

Unlike the 2023 flash flood, which hit most of Vermont, the July 10, 2024 was mostly focused on northern and central Vermont.  Rainfall totals were as high as nearly seven inches in Hinesburg.

Two deaths were reported in the storm, one in Lyndonville and the other the Peacham. 

This disaster re-flooded homes and businesses damaged in the flood the previous year. Hundreds of roads and bridges suffered significant damage, and as of the end of this year, not all the repairs had been completed yet.  

Some of the more dramatic incidents during this disaster included an apartment building that was mostly swept away in Plainfield. The building's occupants evacuated shortly before the the structure collapsed. 

To nobody's surprise, large swaths of Vermont were declared disaster areas.

The disaster was preceded and followed by oppressive hot, humid weather, which slowed post-disaster cleanup. Lebanon, New Hampshire had a record 12 consecutive days in the 90s from July 6-7. It was Burlington's third hottest July on record. 

EXTRME NEK FLASH FLOOD JULY 30.

Early morning thunderstorms on July 30 dumped an incredible amount of rain in just a few hours in large parts of the Northeast Kingdom. St. Johnsbury received eight inches of rain in just four hours, which is the amount of rain that normally falls there in the summer over the course of two months. 

The resulting flash flood washed away houses in Lyndonville and other towns, but miraculously no deaths were reported. 

But there were close misses. One woman was rescued by neighbors after her house fell into a raging river with her inside it. Two elderly women, one age 98, and their dog, were pulled through their bedroom window by neighbors after their home floated onto a road and thankfully got stuck there instead of washing away and completely disintegrating. 

The storm was highly localized. The eastern end of the town of Danville had 7.4 inches of rain. Another location in the western part of the same town just six miles away received just under an inch of rain. 

A weak upper level low pressure system drifted northwestward into New England and stalled for a time over the Northeast Kingdom, causing the extreme downpours. 

DEBBY REMNANTS CAUSE WIND DAMAGE 

High winds associated with former Hurricane Debby blew
the roof off this building in St. Albans Bay, Vermont. 

The remnants of Hurricane Debby swept over Vermont on August 9, causing a surprisingly strong wind storm that evening. Burlington gusted to 62 mph.  

In Alburgh, a large falling tree crushed a house, trapping a resident inside who was later rescued. The roof blew off a house in St. Albans Bay. 

Numerous roads across Vermont, especially the Champlain Valley, were blocked by fallen trees and power lines. At one point, 49,000 Vermont homes and businesses were without power. 

LATE OCTOBER/EARLY NOVEMBER HEAT

Summer seemingly did not want to quit in the last ten days of October and the opening week of November..

Burlington tied or broke four record highs from October 21 to 31, including a reading of 77 degrees on Halloween. That was the warmest for so late in the season.  Plattsburgh soared to an unbelievable 83 degrees on October 31. Woodstock reached 80 degrees.

The late autumn heat had a final resurgence on November 6 as temperatures climbed to 75 at Union Village Dam, Woodstock and Bennington

FLASH AUTUMN DROUGHT, FIRES

On October 8, no areas of Vermont were in drought. Just eight weeks later, 70 percent of the Green Mountain State was deemed to be enduring drought conditions. 

The drought created a slew of unusual autumn forest and brush fires across the Northeast, including here in Vermont. The Green Mountain State had its worst fire year since at least 2016, thanks to autumn brush fires. One of the fires burned through 70 acres near Barnard. 

HOT YEAR ENDS ON HOT NOTE 

2024 will be the world's hottest year, and the hottest year on record here in Vermont. The year came to a fitting end with a record heat wave on December 29-30.  The temperature reached 61 in Burlington on December 29 and 60 on December 30, both record highs for the date. 

 

Why Didn't The World Cool Down As Expected In 2024?

Earth was supposed a tiny bit cooler in 2024 than in
2023 but that ain't happening. Scientists are pondering
an apparent recent acceleration in the pace of
global warming. 

 Roughly at this time last year, I told you that 2023 would be the world's warmest year on record, due in large part to climate change, but 2024 would probably be slightly cooler.  

So much for that idea.

The final figures aren't in yet, but 2024 will certainly beat out last year as the world's warmest.

The Washington Post took a deep dive into what happened, and some scientists are worried we might have entered new, worse phase of climate change. But opinions are sharply divided on this idea.

 This year was supposed to be a tiny bit cooler than 2023 overall because an El Nino atmospheric and oceanic pattern ended. 

El Nino tends to boost global temperatures, so that El Nino teamed up with climate change to make 2023 especially torrid. 

One major factor is the oceans, which pretty much didn't cool off at all in 2024. That helped impart added warmth on land,

Scientists don't know whether this warmer ocean system is just a fluke that will correct itself in a few month or whether it's a still-poorly understood phenomenon that would make climate change even worse that thought.

Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, told WaPo that it's possible ocean temperatures could still crater in the next few months, and this whole year of hot oceans is just some weird natural variability. But, he added, "I think signs are certainly pointing toward fairly persistent warmth."

More often than not, the globe heating El Nino is followed by the world-cooling La Nina, an oceanic and atmospheric patter roughly the opposite of El Nino. But the expected La Nina phase, which should have been in full force by now, has sputtered.

Again, we don't know whether that's because of natural cycle or whether climate change is messing things up. 

Per WaPo:

"Whatever the mix of factors or how long they last, scientists say they lack of a clear explanation lowers their confidence that climate change will follow the established pattern that models have predicted.

'We can't real out eventually much bigger changes,' Hausfather said. 'The more we research climate change, the more we learn that uncertainty isn't our friend.'"

There's one major additional factor explaining the unexpected heat of 2023 and 2024 that scientists are paying close attention to: Clouds, Or rather the lack thereof .

New scientific research reveals that Earth has gotten less cloudy than it once was. Especially in the last couple of years. Fewer clouds, more solar radiation, more heat for you and me.

Once again, this question arises: Is the lack of cloud cover just a weird blip that will go away? Or is climate change evaporating some of Earth's clouds. If it's the latter, then climate change will continue to accelerate faster than most scientists expect. 

Or there's a third possibility, as NBC News reports. New pollution control in recent years means far less sulfur emissions from ships. Scientists has previous said that these new pollution controls did reduce particles in the atmosphere, which had a very minor warming effect the atmosphere. 

Now, says NBC and numerous other news outlets,  the lack of sulfur particles in the atmosphere is reducing the amount of low cloud cover over the oceans. That cloud cover help prevent the oceans from warming too fast. With some of those clouds gone, perhaps the ocean is now able to heat up faster. 

Which in turn could produce warmer, and sometimes wetter air currents making landfall on continents and extending well inland. 

In any event, the expected cooling after El Nino ended hasn't materialized. If that trend continues, the next El Nino could really make the hot global years of 2023 and 2024 seem downright chilly.

 

Hurricane Season 2024 Finally Comes To An End, Good Riddance!

Hurricane Helene approaching Florida in September. This
hurricane proved to be the United States' deadliest hurricane
since Katrina in 2005. The 2024 hurricane season, which
ended Saturday, was among the most destructive on record.

 Back on Saturday, we said our goodbyes to the Atlantic hurricane season of 2024.

And we also told it to don't let the door hit you on your ass on the way out.  It turned out to be a troublesome one, that's for sure. 

As NPR reports, it was the deadliest hurricane season in two decades and easily one of the costliest. Five hurricanes hit the continental United States in 2024, a near-record for the most hits in a single season. 

Hurricane Helene alone snuffed out 150 lives, the biggest death toll from a single hurricane in the United States since 2005's Hurricane Katrina.

Damage from this year's hurricanes amount to at least $190 billion, the second most costly hurricane year after 2017. That was the year that brought us Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria.

As we head into the Christmas season, thousands of people are still experiencing heartache, loss, fear, homelessness and financial ruin because of this year's hurricanes 

For the record 2024 brought us 18 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph. Eleven of those storms became hurricanes (74 mph or greater) and five were major hurricanes (111 mph or greater)

The second half of the season was when most of the action happened. Twelve named storms formed after what is normally the season's peak in early September. Seven hurricanes formed after September 25, which is the most for that late in the season. 

We were warned back in the spring this would be a hyper hurricane season, as near record warm ocean temperatures and a favorable atmospheric setup would turbocharge the season, leading to a possibly record number of hurricanes.  Some estimates indicated we'd have more tropical storms and hurricanes than names in the 2024 queue for these storms.

But the last tropical storm of the season was Sara, leaving three unused names this year, Tony, Valerie and William.

Normally there would have been additional storms in August and the first week of September, which is near the peak of the season. All the ingredients seemed to be there for storms, but they just didn't materialize during that period. It was an odd mid-season lull

Meteorologists will probably spend years studying why the hurricanes mercifully shut down during those weeks in August. 

Some leading theories include the idea that disturbances moving off the west coast ofAfrica - which often eventually develop into hurricanes - were too far north this year, missing out on the very warm waters further south that would fuel these storms.

Also, to get a hurricane going, the upper atmosphere should be cooler than the air near the surface. That would create instability to few the thunderstorms that are the seeds of hurricanes.

This year, the atmosphere was warm through tens of thousands of feet in elevation. That prevented the needed instability to create nascent tropical storms. 

Those meteorologists will study if these really were the factors preventing hurricanes in August and whether climate change had anything to do with these atmospheric conditions. That research will help with predictions of future hurricane season, and individual hurricanes. 

Two of the season's hurricanes managed to cause damage here in Vermont. 

In July, the remnants of Hurricane Beryl (which was the earliest Category 5 Atlantic storm on record in the Caribbean) teamed up with a stalled weather front to unleash intense downpours, especially across much of central and northern Vermont. The result was the state's third catastrophic flood within a year.   

In early August, the remnants of Hurricane Debby blasted much of Vermont with high winds, especially the Champlain Valley. 

Both storms proved you don't have to be anywhere close to where a hurricane made landfall to have those storms cause real trouble.  

Phoenix, Arizona Grinds On With 100+ Consecutive Days Of 100 Degree Heat

It was over 100 degrees today (Thursday Sept 5) in
Phoenix, Arizona, the 102nd such day in a row.
The old record for such consecutive days was 76.
And there's no end in sight for this intense heat. 

As we usually see in here in Vermont during September, temperatures have gotten more comfortable than they were in mid-summer, with the dense humidity and hot days mostly if not completely behind us.   

Compared to many cities, including the example I'll get into, Vermont is always lucky when it comes to heat. 

One Vermont weather station did get above 100 degrees on one day this summer. And on a few days, the heat index nudged above degrees. But that was it for triple digit heat. 

This compares to very unfortunately Phoenix, Arizona. It's always ridiculously hot there in the summer, but this is beyond what even they are used to.

On Tuesday, they had their 100th consecutive day in which the temperature reached at least 100. Until this year, Phoenix never had a year with more than 76 consecutive 100 degree days. So this is painful, even for them. 

Even worse, an intense new heat wave is hitting the western United States this week, including in the fair city of Phoenix. An excessive heat warning was issued for much of southern California and Arizona - including Phoenix, through Friday. 

Forecast highs in Phoenix were 114 today and 111 Friday. 

The heat, of course is dangerous. As the Washington Post reports:

"Last year, heat deaths increased 50 percent from 2022, reaching a record 645 people in Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix. This year, 150 heat deaths have been confirmed by the government and an additional 440 deaths are under investigation." 

Not surprisingly, this long 100 degree streak contributed to making meteorological summer (June 1-August 31) the hottest on record, with an average of 98.9 degrees. The average high for that period in Phoenix was 110.4 degrees. The average low as a stifling 87.5 degrees.  

This is the second year in a row that Phoenix endured a spectacularly hot summer. Last July, Phoenix set a record for the hottest average monthly temperature for a U.S. city, as July, 2023 saw an average of 102.7 degrees. (Death Valley had hotter months, but that's not a city).  

Phoenix last year also had a record 31 days in a row in which the temperature reached at least 110 degrees. 

I guess climate change is making a brutally hot city even more unlivable. 

Normal highs in early September around Phoenix are still around 102 or 103 degrees, but you usually have a few days with highs "only" in the 90s by now. In fact, seasonal monsoons, with their clouds and thunderstorms, sometimes cause highs to stay below 100 degrees in Phoenix on a few days in late July and August 

It doesn't look like the 2024 daily 100-degree streak in Phoenix is going to end anytime soon. The National Weather Service forecasts daily highs at or above 100 degrees at least through next Wednesday. 

The Weather Channel forecast doesn't give Phoenix a sub-100 high temperature until September 15.

The late season heat wave out west is of course affecting plenty of other towns and cities. All the way north into Washington State, highs for the next couple of days are forecast to reach near record highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s. 

Officials are worries that the dry heat, along with erratic winds, could touch off destructive forest fires in the Olympic and Cascade Mountains. 

How Our Big Vermont Heat Wave Compared With Past June Hot Spells

Thunderheads billow into the sky over St. Albans Bay,
Vermont during the peak of this past week's heat wave on
Wednesday.  The scattered showers and storms probably
prevented actual high temperatures from getting even
higher than they did

 Before the just-ended heat wave, I predicted this would be among the biggest June hot spells on record for Vermont.   

Sure enough, this was a biggie, but not the most extreme we've seen.

The most notable record was the minimum temperature in Burlington on Wednesday, June 19 of 80 degrees. That ties the all-time record for highest minimum temperature for any date in Burlington.

The persistence of the heat in Burlington overnight, was incredible. The temperature rose above 78 degrees from a little before 9 a.m. June 18 until a little after 3 p.m. June 20 when a strong thunderstorm dropped the temperature to 72 degrees. 

 The high temperature Wednesday in Burlington was 96 degrees, four degrees short of the record for the date and the all time record high for the month, also set on June 19 back in 1995. I have a feeling that we would have made it closer to 100 had the sun stayed consistently out all day. 

But the air was so humid it generated numerous showers and storms, which helped keep temperatures down by a few degrees. 

I'd still rate our recent hot spell as worse than the one in 1995. The average temperature in Burlington on June 19, 2024 was 88 degrees and due to a cooler night back then, the mean temperature on June 19, 1995 was half a degree cooler. 

And we only had two days in a row with temperatures over 90 back in that hot spell in 1995. 

 I did find a June hot spell way more intense than the one this past week.  Probably the worst June hot spell on record came in June, 1946. It would have been the second longest heat wave on record if one day had not fallen just short of 90 degrees.

On June 24-30 the highs in Burlington were 90,92,94,89,93,96,93.

Unlike this year, June, 1946 was chilly until that late month heat wave.

TRENDS

Overall, Burlington has had a grand total of 82 heat waves since the 1880s. A heat wave here is defined as three or more consecutive days in which the temperature reaches 90 degrees or more. 

This was only the 16th heat wave entirely within the month of June. Climate change is likely contributing to more hot weather in June than in past decades. 

Temperatures above 95 degrees used to be rare in June, happening in only a handful of years prior to this century. With Wednesday's high of 96 in Burlington, that makes four of the past five Junes making it to 96 degrees in Burlington. 

Junes with multiple days going to 90 or above seem to be increasing, too. Including this year, I found 13 Junes in the past century in Burlington with at least four days in the 90s. Seven of those Junes have happened since 1999. Only three of them were before 1983. 

More 90s this June are certainly possible, but unlikely. The best chances of it happening are this coming Wednesday, but that's really iffy.

There's plenty more time for additional hot days in July and August, though. 

The record for the most 90s in a single year still stands at 26, back in 1949. It would be a real tall order to break that record in 2024.

Hail Of A Year In U.S. Damaging Ice Balls Worse Than Usual This Year

A 

 Last past Sunday, I published an account of a terribly destructive hail storm in and around Denver, Colorado.  

This giant hailstone landed in Texas
last Sunday. 

That was one of many hail storms in a nasty, busy hailish here in the United States. (Yes, I invented a new word, so sue me).

As the Washington Post reports, spring is a busy time for hail, as it is severe weather and tornado season. This year seems to be even worse than usual.  

That makes sense. The weather pattern has featured extra doses of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms this spring. It follows that we'd have more hailstorms in that pattern, too. 

WARMER PLANET, MORE ICE BALLS?

Paradoxically as it might seem, a warming planet might be making hail storms worse than in the past. 

Hail forms when big thunderstorms create big updrafts that keep ever-growing balls of ice adding more layers of water that freezes. Finally, the hail stones get too big for the updrafts to keep them up there, so they plummet to earth. 

The stronger the updrafts, the longer the hail stays up there, getting bigger and bigger. Which is why these giant things come crashing down sometimes, smashing up cars, dinging and puncturing roofs until they leak and causing other havoc. 

The Washington Post picks up the story:

"As temperatures warm along Earth's surface, those updrafts may be getting stronger - and that may allow hail to grow larger before the winds can no longer keep it aloft.

The warmer the air, the more moisture it can hold. And when thunderstorms develop, a greater contrast between hot, moist air close to the ground and cold, dry air overhead can supercharge the upward winds needed to produce hail."

The Gulf of Mexico has also been abnormally warm all year so far. That means south winds blowing from the Gulf inland into the United States can grab more moisture from those waters to help intensify thunderstorms across much of the nation.

MORE TARGETS

Another big reason hail has been getting a lot more expensive is because they have a lot more targets to hit. 

Big hail storms tend to strike in narrow streaks, much like tornadoes. The areas affected by hail storms are wider than those hit by tornadoes. While hail might fall in a ten or even 20 mile wide path, the worst of the hail - with the biggest stones and the greatest amount of them, only tend to fall in paths one to three miles wide. 

By comparison, the widest tornadoes are 1 to 2 miles across, but those mega-twisters are extremely rare.  If there's a lot of open country, a streak of wannabe destructive hail can thread the needle and avoid towns and cities. 

Back in the old days, cities and towns were pretty compact. Now, those suburbs spread out all over the damn place and they keep spreading outward. That's so many more opportunities for hail stones to crash down on cars, roofs, windows, siding and such.    So the costs and the insurance claims skyrocket as a result. 

On top of the, climate change might (or might not, the jury is still out) be spreading big hail northward and eastward into more highly populated areas that could really get nailed. 

The reason I said the jury is still out on that question is because, as the Washington Post reports, climate change might be in general reducing wind shear in severe thunderstorms. Wind shear is changes in wind speed and direction with height. Hail storms tend to thrive when the wind shear is higher. 

Scientist hope to launch an intensive research project during next spring's storm season to help answer the questions about how climate change affects hail and other severe storms 

RECORD BIG HAIL

Last Sunday in Texas, storm chasers near Vigo Park, Texas found a hail stone that was 7.25 inches in diameter. If verified, this spiky hailstone would set the mark for the largest hailstone on record in Texas. The old record was 6.4 inches in Hondo, Texas in 2021.

For the record, the Texas hail monster wasn't the biggest ever seen in the United States. That honor goes to an 8-inch diameter hail stone that landed in Vivian, South Dakota (right in the middle of the state) on July 23, 2010. For comparison, a bowling ball is 8.5 inches in diameter.

For Vermonters reading this, our record big hailstone is pretty small in comparison. A supercell thunderstorm on July 16, 2009 unloaded a 3.3 inch diameter chunk of ice on Westford. That's about midway between the size of a baseball and softball. 

We even had our own bouts with hail this season in Vermont, though the episodes were relatively minor. Hail struck areas in eastern Franklin County back on May 21. The hailstones weren't big enough to cause a whole lot of damage, except to gardens and perhaps some farm crops. 

And of course, we had that half dollar sized hail down in Waltham, Vermont Friday, and a few other reports of penny sized hail the same day.  

Some hail also fell across Franklin County on April 28 as a batch of thunderstorms rumbled through. 

So far, knock on wood, Vermont is yet to see any hail that's too damaging. The severe weather season is young, though. 

It's nearly impossible to predict a risk of hail more than a few days in advance. Any thunderstorms we see in Vermont over the next day or two will have at worst harmless pea sized hail. Most, if not all storms will contain no hail at all because they won't be strong enough. 

May 18, 2023 In Vermont: Winter. May 18, 2024 In Vermont: Summer. Then What?

Brown, ruined blossoms after the devastating
Vermont freeze on May 18, 2023.

 Exactly one year ago today, May 18, we were waking up to icy carnage in the gardens and the orchards.  

After an early, warm spring, temperatures fell to record lows. Most of us were well down into the 20s. A few places were in the teens.

Blooming apple orchards, vineyards, strawberry patches, gardens and even whole trees were decimated by the freeze. It was officially an agricultural disaster.

The freeze was the opening salvo in what turned out to be a summer of misery. After a brief late spring drought, clouds and humidity set siege for the rest of the summer. That wet air allowed frequent, torrential downpours which led to some of the most destructive flooding in Vermont history. 

By contrast, this morning, after a sort of warm spring, temperatures at dawn were on the warm side for the season. Most of us were in the 50s to low 60s, pretty far from the freezing mark. And we're in for a true summery stretch of weather. 

The contrast between the two years began in earnest May 17. 

On May 17, 2023, high temperatures in Vermont  never got out of the 40s, and snow flurries blew around in the chilly pre-freeze wind. Burlington managed a high temperature of just 48 degrees, a bit cooler than the average low for this time of year. Montpelier had  high of 42. 

On May 17, 2024, Burlington saw its first 80 degree reading of the season. The end of the day was punctuated by a small, brief, summer-like thunderstorms. Looking ahead, we have several more days during the upcoming week that should also reach into the 80s.   

By contrast, apple blossoms are doing just fine
in this frost-free May, 2024. 

I definitely hope the placid stretch of weather we're seeing this year is a precursor for a quiet summer. 

As of now, no super extreme temperatures are in the forecast, though expected temperatures in the mid-80s by Tuesday are awfully far above normal. (The record high on Tuesday is 92 degrees.)

At the moment, soil moisture seems neither particularly wet (except maybe in the Northeast Kingdom), nor excessively dry. 

Last year we went from drought in early June to floods by early July. 

We might see hints of wildfire smoke over the coming days and weeks from Canadian wildfires. But at least so far, no big dense smoke attacks seem to be in the offing, like they were on occasion from late May through July last year.

On a post I put out on May 4, I referred to the Goldilocks whether we'd been having - not too hot, cold, wet or dry. That Goldilocks trend has continued since then. 

I hope it continues for the rest of the summer, but who knows? Long range forecasts call for an oppressively hot, perhaps humid summer. I hope not. 

Wouldn't you just love to have just one standard, old fashioned Vermont summer for a change? You know, afternoons in the low 80s with minimal humidity, warm enough to hit the swimming hole, but  comfortable enough for a hike or garden work. 

How about some nice July starlit nights with lows down in the 50s? The kind where you leave your windows open and sleep comfortably in the cool fragrant summer air coming  into the house?

In this age of climate change, that might just be a pipe dream. Extremes are happening everywhere. Ask the folks down in Houston. Or flood-ravaged Brazil, Or heat wave-addled Asia. 

I just figure the other shoe will drop, and us Vermonters will suffer through something ranging from unpleasant to dangerous in the coming months. 

Maybe I'll be wrong. Maybe Goldilocks will bring us that idyllic comfortable summer, 

A guy can dream, right?

 

Some Forecasters Worry About Potential Big Hurricane Season '24 But There's Caveats

Some forecasters are worries that Atlantic hurricane 
season of 2024 will be busy.  But that all depends
on whether forecasts stay accurate, and where
those eventual hurricanes go 

 There's been some rumblings in the weather news world about a possible hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season this year.  

I've got the reality in this post.  Probably good to know if you live in a hurricane prone area of the United States. Or even an inland area that can get nailed with severe flooding from an ex-hurricane that has moved inland.  

Vermont readers: That can mean us. See: Great New England Hurricane of 1938 and Tropical Storm Irene in 2011. 

The bottom line is that a combination of super hot water already simmering in the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes tend to form and a waning El Nino has forecasters nervous. But not panicked. 

HERE'S WHY

First: The hot water. The near-record to record warm sea surface temperatures extend all the way fro the African coast to the Caribbean. 

As the Washington Post explains,  the area of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes are most likely to develop is running hot. At last check, this area is running 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit higher than any other year on record, says Philip Klotzbach, a tropical meteorologist at Colorado State University.

 If the above normal temperatures in this broad area continue, a disturbance coming off the African coast has plenty of opportunity to strengthen on its long journey westward. 

All other things being equal, warm water helps hurricanes grow. The hotter the water, the hotter the hurricane, unless atmospheric conditions somehow interfere with the storm's development. 

El Nino, that periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean, can easily create atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic that can muck up a wannabe hurricane's fight for survival. El Nino often produces stronger upper level winds over the Atlantic Ocean. Those strong winds rip apart thunderstorms that are the initial ingredients for hurricanes. 

Or a hurricane can run into that buzzsaw of high winds and weaken into oblivion as a result. 

The problem now is that El Nino is widely expected to fall apart this spring, possibly to be replaced by the opposite La Nina by summer and autumn.  That's the peak of hurricane season.

La Nina does the opposite of El Nino, tending to calm upper level winds in the Atlantic.  Which gives hurricanes "permission" to grow. 

Of course, it's still well before hurricane season, and a lot can change. 

Perhaps we might find increased levels of dust blowing from the Saharan desert westward into the skies over the Atlantic Ocean. That would dim the sun, blunting the warming that's now going on in the water.

Maybe the forecast of a dying El Nino is wrong. Forecasters say conditions favor El Nino ending, but it's not any kind of guarantee.

What matters most is where hurricanes go.  If you get a bunch of strong hurricanes, but they curve harmlessly northward and die over the cold North Atlantic without hitting land, then who cares?

The problem obviously comes when a strong hurricane hits land somewhere. There's no good way to know this early in the year where hurricanes will hit. In fact, we usually have no idea of a hurricane's future path until after it actually forms. 

WHAT TO DO NOW 

The advice for anybody living in a hurricane prone area now is to just think about how to fortify your property against hurricanes. Does your insurance policy cover all aspects of hurricanes, including wind damage, storm surge and inland flooding? 

Insurance in many hurricane prone areas is very expensive, hard to get and doesn't provide adequate coverage. Unfortunately, you might have to plan for that. 

If you can afford it, you should probably have a "hurricane fund" set aside that you can dip into to cover expenses associated with these storms. 

You have to think about transportation and lodging if you end up under evacuation orders, buying supplies to gird your property against approaching hurricanes, and money to cover repairs not covered by insurance. 

Also, think about where you'd go if forced to evacuate.  And what you'll need in your home during a hurricane if you don't evacuate. Things like adequate food that you can prepare even if you have no power, non-perishable goods that can survive safely without refrigerations. And don't forget stuff for your pets. 

The chances of a strong hurricane hitting a particular spot on the U.S. coastline is low. But the chances of a big hurricane hitting somewhere in the U.S. is reasonably high.  This year, those chances appear a little higher than in many past years. 

Also, ignore the hype.  It's true forecasters are concerned about the upcoming hurricane season. But the social media hype machine takes it to a whole unreasonable new level. I've seen things already from clickbait that "guarantees" massive hurricane destruction in the U.S. later this summer and fall.

Spoiler: There are no guarantees. 

Even legitimate weather publications are guilty of clickbait. A recent headline: "AccuWeather Sounds Alarm Bells: Super-Charged Hurricane Season Possible in 2024."

Then if you take the time to read the actual AccuWeather article, it's reasonable, accurate and doesn't contain scare tactics.  So take your time with these articles. 

I also can't part without bringing up my favorite target. Climate change.  A big reason why the Atlantic is so hot to begin with is because the world is warmer as we continue to belch greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. 

Ocean temperatures will always fluctuate, but the trend will be up, up, up as the years and decades go by. So this worry over super big hurricanes won't be one-off just for 2024.