This Will Probably Be the Best Vermont Summer Weather Weekend Of The Summer

The table is set for probably the best weather weekend
of this summer in Vermont. 

UPDATE 6 PM FRIDAY

Today worked out just about as expected in what I wrote this morning. There's a bit more wildfire smoke in the air than I thought there'd be. 

Still not much, but enough to make the 

are quality go from good to just moderate at times. 

This might be the state of affairs all weekend. Other than that, the forecast I outlined below for Saturday and Sunday hasn't changed much at all from what I wrote below.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 For Vermont summer weather enthusiasts, and for tourists who picked this weekend to come to the Green Mountain State, this is your weekend.  

It'll have everything you need: A lot of sunshine, some comfortable nights, a warm but temperate Saturday and a fairly hot Sunday - perfect for a visit to the beach.

In other words we're in for a respite from the storms, downpours and humidity that always seemed to hang over our heads. Or at least threaten to.  

The cold front that came through Thursday had a little more oomph than I thought it might. By late afternoon, temperatures in the northern half of the state had fallen into the low 70s. It actually felt genuinely cool out there, something I haven't experienced in awhile. 

This morning, we're starting off with temperatures within a couple degrees of 60. The humidity is low, the air is fresh. 

Which sets the tone for the weekend. 

We'll almost have wall to wall sunshine today through Sunday.  The sky will occasionally be dotted with some fair well cumulus clouds during the days. Mostly for decoration and to grace the Instagram photos you'll be taking. Or something like that. 

The sky could also have a hazy quality to it at times, thanks to worsening wildfires in western Canada and the western United States. Any smoke will remain aloft, so air quality should stay pretty safe.

Being the pessimist the I can be, I'm looking for some other potential problems that'll interfere with this great weather. I'm coming up almost empty.  A weak disturbance might set off an isolated light shower in the Northeast Kingdom this afternoon. Any showers will come and go in a flash. But without lightning flashes. No thunderstorms today. 

I wonder if a tiny, weak upper level disturbance moving inland from the New England coast could throw clouds our way to an extent Sunday. But right now the air looks too dry, and the lame disturbance too weak and too far east to create any unexpected overcast. 

Temperatures will be on an uphill climb between today and Sunday. It should get to near 80 today with low humidity. Which means today is your best bet for exertion, like hiking to the summit of Camels Hump or something like that. 

After another comfortable night, Saturday gets  little warmer, sneaking up into the low 80s. Sunday is your beach day with temperatures in many areas getting into the upper 80s.  Traditional banana belt towns in parts of the Champlain Valley could flirt with 90.  Humidity on Sunday will be reasonable, though. 

BACK TO THE GRIND

Once we get into the new work week after our fun weekend, it's back to the grind. Both for work and the kind of weather we'll have.

It'll be back to daily warmth, humidity and thunderstorm and downpour risks. At this stage of the game, Monday looks like it should stay rain-free for the vast majority of us.  It'll be well into the 80s to maybe near 90 again, and you'll notice the humidity creeping up on us. 

Then, for the rest often week, the Bermuda High will keep pumping very warm, humid air our way, while weak, slow moving disturbances pushing in will bring us daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. 

It's impossible to tease out which days will be the stormiest, but in general, most of the lightning and downpours should come in the afternoons and evenings.

Our sunny weekend will help soils dry out, so that might limit flash flood risks in the downpours, unless they persist for days. 

One cautionary tale comes from the long range forecasts. 

If the six to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks are correct - and there's absolutely no guarantee of that - then we could be in for some volatile weather in the opening days of August. 

The forecast hot temperatures and above normal rainfall - if they actually happen - imply humidity and the atmospheric sparks that could trigger torrential rains and possibly severe storms or even renewed localized flash floods.   That's something that Vermont can live without after what has so far been a rather hot and stormy summer.