Early Afternoon Vermont Flood Update: Risk Beginning Now As Radar Lights Up

The National Weather Service has outlined the are in pink
as the most likely areas to see scattered flash flooding
this afternoon and evening. The Northeast Kingdom,
outlined in red, is especially at risk. 

The thinking of what might happen with rainfall in Vermont this afternoon and evening hasn't changed much since early this morning, which is not great news for the Green Mountain State.  

Not all that much rain has fallen in Vermont this morning. That was expected. As of 12:30 p.m. though, the radar was beginning to light up with more and more scattered downpours. That was expected too. 

These locally torrential downpours should continue here and there throughout Vermont through at least 8 p.m., possibly longer.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, which monitors flooding around the nation, often releases special statements on short-term flood risks in particular areas in the United States.  

One of those, released shortly before 12:30 p.m. says the risk of flooding is now growing in eastern New York, Vermont, much of New Hampshire and parts of western Maine. To wit:

"Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage and lift northward through the evening. Rainfall rates of 1-2+" are likely, which through repeated rounds could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible."

The statement goes on to say that the air is about as wet and humid as it can possible get. (If you have stepped outside in the past hour or so, you know).  That humid air supplies plenty of moisture for the downpours. 

Afternoon instability will increase, as it usually does in the summer, helping to make more showers and thunderstorms blossom. 

Some of the storms could "train" in narrow south to north corridors, coming one right after the other, enhancing the flash flood risk in some zones.  

National Weather Service radar was really beginning to
light up with lots of showers and downpours (in red).
The rain intensity should increase through the afternoon.

The Weather Prediction Statement also - rather obviously - singled out the Northeast Kingdom as prime breeding grounds for new flash flooding this afternoon and evening. 

Not only because of the already soaked ground and high water in streams, but because the steep terrain in many areas can enhance runoff.

I would also say the Green Mountain chain would also be a prime spot for flash flooding. But again, it could happen anywhere if it does. We just don't know where the heaviest rain sets up until it actually happens.

I realize everyone is spooked because of all the floods we've had in the past couple years. I notice in Barre - hard hit by three major floods since last July -   before the rain begins in earnest. The also told residents to stay abreast of weather and emergency updates through the day.

Good advice for everybody, really. 

So, stay tuned for flash flood warnings this afternoon. Race to higher ground if you are under such a warning, don't try to drive through flooded roads. And if you are in a safe spot during a flash flood warning, just stay put.