Vermont Storm Chances Iffy, Risk Of Oncoming Heat Wave Not So Iffy

A peaceful, sunny summer early morning in St. Albans, 
Vermont today. Sun will struggle with clouds,
showers and storms again later today. 

 I was a bit concerned yesterday afternoon and evening as slow moving downpours seem to linger over north central Vermont, mostly along and a little south of Route 2.  

Those were the areas hit hard by the flooding this month, and they didn't need more of it.  

Luckily, the downpours were small in size. And they did move around a little, so I so far see no reports of any further damage. No flood warnings. All good. For once. 

It looks like there were just pinpoint spots of downpours that might have left behind an inch or two of rain.  Most towns didn't get all that much rain,For instance, Montpelier picked up around a half inch of rain Tuesday, which was manageable. 

Summer does bring variable rainfall.  Here's a great example. Between unexpected heavier showers late Saturday night and rain early Tuesday morning, my unofficial rain gauge picked up 1.1 inches of rain. Meanwhile, just 30 miles to the south, Burlington received just 0.1 inches of rain in that time. 

TODAY/THURSDAY

We got more hits and misses to go today and to a lesser extent tomorrow. Summer rainfall forecasts are almost always frustrating. You know there's going to be showers and storms. You just don't know who will get a sprinkle and who will get drenched. 

There's an excellent chance of showers and storms in Vermont this afternoon and evening. In fact, we're still in a marginal risk area for excessive rain, says NOAA, which means there could be an isolated instance of flash flooding again later today. 

It won't be anything widespread. There's a somewhat greater risk of local flooding in the Adirondacks of New York, which received heavier rain Tuesday morning, and has a better chance of seeing torrential rain later today than Vermont does.

In a post I made yesterday, I mentioned Thursday might have a slightly better chance of local flash floods. The good news is since yesterday, forecasters have backed way off on the chances of heavier rain tomorrow. 

Weak boundaries and a cold front are coming through a little earlier than was thought and previous forecasts. That means we won't have as much time during the heat of the day to develop torrential storms. There will be some scattered stuff around but nothing super scary.

HEAT WAVE?

Widespread heat is expected again in the U.S.
next week. For the Central Plains and 
northern New England, the chances of
hot weather are pretty much a slam dunk. 

While the hit and miss nature of summer storms sometimes puzzles forecasters and especially the public, confidence is growing that we're in for another hot spell.

Initially, tomorrow's cold front will introduce a short spell of very reasonable humidity, comfortable nighttime sleeping weather and gorgeous days starting Friday afternoon and continuing Saturday. 

The weekend looks to be classic summer, with seasonably warm (low 80s) temperatures on Saturday and readings way up in the 80s on Sunday with sunny skies.  

After that, the high pressure coming in from southern Canada will merge with the Bermuda High, leasing to a strong northward bulge in the jet stream over the Northeast and eastern Canada.

That will introduce a potentially long lasting spell of hot weather beginning in earnest Monday and possibly continuing most of, or all of next week. 

A six to 10 day outlook from NOAA covering July 29 to August 2 is as confidence at you can possibly get that we'll have above normal temperatures in our neck of the woods. 

How hot it actually will get depends on whether thunderstorms get added to the mix or if any upper level disturbances can temper the heat and humidity a bit. But if you like cool, dry breezes, next week won't be your week.