Early Afternoon Update: Vermont Storm Worsens, Shifts North; Tornado Watch Added To Flood Watch

Weather radar was already really busy across
central and northern Vermont and NY with heavy rain and
thunderstorms which couple easily turn severe.
A flood watch and tornado watch are in effect.
Keep a wary eye out this afternoon, folks~ 

Can things get worse?

Apparently, they can.  

A tornado watch has been added to Vermont's existing flood watch as our storm really winds up. 

Things were just getting exciting - in a bad way - as I write this at just after 12:30 p.m. Heavy rain is developing in many spots. 

FLOODING

As our expected flooding and storms loomed late this morning, I was struck by how dark it had gotten here in St. Albans late this morning. 

Through noon, we'd only gotten a little rain - less than a tenth of an inch. But boy, did it seem ominous out there. By 12:20 p.m. rain rates increased as thunder began booming. It has begun.

Judging from latest forecasts and radar returns, it looks like the whole mess of a storm is going to place itself a bit north of earlier forecasts.

The warm front that is helping cause this appears as if it wants to shift well into northern Vermont. That might focus the heaviest rains a bit north, too. 

 NOAA's Weather Prediction Center slightly shifted their moderate risk zone - the areas most likely to see flash flooding today and tonight just a bit. Now, areas right along the  Canadian border, and presumably just on the other side of the border in Quebec, stand the best chances of seeing some potentially seriously flooding. 

Widespread two to four inch rain totals are now expected pretty much from Route 4 northward, with some spots seeing six inches or even more. The flood watch went into effect at 11 a.m., so starting now, any torrential storm can produce flooding.

The flash flood risk will steadily rise as we go through the day. 

So it's not a good situation at all.  I'm confident we'll get plenty of reports of road washouts and quite possibly some real property damage this afternoon and evening. 

TORNADOES/SEVERE STORMS

With the warm front apparently further north, that places most of Vermont in a more favorable zone for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. When  you have the remnants of a tropical system, with a warm front involved, you can easily get this type of trouble. 

The old Hurricane Beryl remnants create shifting winds in the atmosphere. The warm front helps by bending south or southwest winds toward the southeast and east across areas near that front. That also helps encourage spinning thunderstorms and possible tornadoes. 

Which is why a tornado watch is in effect until 9 p.m. this evening. 

The chances of a tornado in Vermont aren't zero but they are low compared to the much bigger threat of flooding. 

It appears an initial wave of heavy rain and thunderstorms was moving quickly north and northeast across the northern half of Vermont as of 12:30 p.m. Some of the thunderstorms in central Vermont and northern New York could get near severe levels before they head into Quebec.

It's possible there might be a lull after this initial band. (Not guaranteed, but it seems to me like it's headed that way). But more storms will quickly develop in the very wet and very unstable air to the south. 

Also, this initial band could stall out north of Route 2 soon and start dumping heavy rains this afternoon. We'll need to watch the progress of where this first wave of downpours ends up. 

I noticed a lot of new storms were already developing south of Syracuse, New York. Those storms will only become more numerous as the day wears on. There was already a tornado warning with one of these storms just southwest of Utica, New York as of 12:45 p.m. 

Those storms are heading in Vermont's general direction. Note that most rotating storms do not produce a tornado. But they usually do create damaging straight line winds. Take all severe thunderstorm warnings seriously.

WHAT'S GOING ON

We'll all have to stay on our toes this afternoon and evening. Local flash flood warnings, severe thunderstorm warnings and possible tornado warnings will all be buzzing out of National Weather Service offices in South Burlington and areas near Vermont. Probably in quick succession at times.

I'm sure local television stations will keep cutting into regular broadcasts to spread the word about specific flood and storm threats as they develop today and tonight. 

No matter where you are in Vermont, be prepared for really fast changing conditions. 

This sounds basic, but know where you live on a map. Know which county you live in, and the names of the towns surrounding you. That will give you a better sense of whether you need to take action if any kind of warning is issued. 

Vermont Emergency Management says it is opening its Emergency Operations Center this afternoon, which supports and coordinates efforts during severe floods and storms. 

Also, Vermont's urban search and rescue teams are staging in areas most likely to see the worst of it today and tonight. The Vermont National Guard is assisting with this. 

That there's this much prep work going on is yet another suggestion this storm is really one to take seriously. 

I'm not sure I'll be able to post an update this evening or not, stay tuned. Keep an eye to the skies and an ear to a weather radio and other reliable sources of weather information. 

You're going to need it. 

 

June Was Another Very Warm Month In Vermont. Definitely A Trend Here

An intense thunderstorm in Hinesburg, Vermont on 
June 23. The storm carried a tornado warning, but
none touched down in this case. Frequent bouts
of heat and humidity encouraged storms
in the Green Mountain state during June. 

 In another month that showed that this isn't your grandfather's Vermont climate, June turned out to be among the warmest on record in much of of the state.  

Burlington had its seventh warmest June with a mean temperature of 70.3.  Montpelier scored its ninth warmest June with an average of 65.1 degrees.

June is the third month this year that scored in the top 10 warmest on record in Burlington.  

Months in any given locality usually yo-yo between being on the cool or warm side. In Burlington, at least, the last time we had a somewhat cooler than average month was November,

Note that by average, I mean the "new normal." A normal month is the average for all of them between 1990 and 2020,  That period was warmer than the long term average from the 20th century, due to the effects of climate change. 

While most days were on the warm side in June, the event that really helped push the month into the top ten warm list was a heat wave from June 18-20.  Temperatures got well into the 90s through most of the state. Burlington tied its all time record for highest minimum temperature for any date on June 19, when the "low" temperature only reached 80 degrees. 

Overall, though, the warmth was pretty consistent. Eighteen days made it to at least 80 degrees in Burlington. I could only find nine Junes in Burlington in the past 130 years that had as many or more days that reached 80 degrees.

As is typical of summer months, rainfall was pretty variable around Vermont. Along and north of Route 2 it was on the wet side. Central and parts of southern Vermont were dry, but areas near the Massachusetts border were wetter again. 

A picturesque thunderstorm near Sheldon, Vermont
on June 9. This storm produced a brief, harmless
"cold air funnel" over nearby St. Albans. It 
was caused by the interaction of warm humid
air at the surface and cold air aloft. This was
not something that would actually produce a tornado.

Burlington and St. Johnsbury each had well over five inches of rain for the month, which is more than an inch on the wet side. Rutland, meanwhile, was an inch on the dry side with only 3.15 inches of rain. 

Because of the frequent availability of heat and humidity, severe weather made occasional visits to the Green Mountain State.

 The National Weather Service in South Burlington said there were six days in June in the region with reports of damage from severe thunderstorms 

The worst of it came on June 23, when flash flooding caused a lot of damage in the north-central Green Mountains, especially around Stowe, Worcester and Elmore.  The cleanup is still ongoing in many of these areas.

There was also a tornado watch and three tornado warnings that day. But the rotating storms managed to produce wall clouds and a couple reports of funnels, but no actual tornadoes in the Green Mountain State. There was a tornado in southwestern New Hampshire, not that far from the Vermont border.

That swath with the heaviest rain had a months total of between six and nine inches, which is a lot. Meanwhile, the U.S. Drought Monitor is rating much of south central and southeastern Vermont as abnormally dry.

Looking ahead to July, the early read on it suggests more warmth. Today will actually be a little on the cool side for the season, but that should change to a slightly toastier string of days starting Wednesday. Long range forecasts, though not always accurate, do fairly strongly suggest mostly warmer than average days through mid-month. 

Early Afternoon Vermont Severe Risk Update: Storms Beginning To Fire, Tornado, Damaging Wind Risk Continues

National Weather Service radar at 12:30 p.m. today showed
storms just beginning to fire up in New York. Those storms
will rapidly intensify and expand as they head into
Vermont with damaging wind and even tornado risks. 

Storms were just beginning to fire up as of 12:30 p.m. today as we brace for a rare combo, for Vermont anyway, of intense thunderstorms and a real risk of a few tornadoes. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center said they would very likely issue a tornado watch for probably all of Vermont, almost all of New Hampshire  eastern New York and northern Massachusetts. We don't get too many tornado watches around here, so that's something to note. 

By the time you read this, we'll very probably be under that tornado watch. 

It does feel like tornado weather out there. At my place in St. Albans, we have fairly strong, gusty south winds and a lot of humidity.

The storms were initiating in central New York.  They hadn't developed in Vermont yet, but both the growing New York storms and new storms in the Green  Mountain State should get going soon.

You'll really need to stay on your toes today. The storms are and will be moving forward pretty fast. So there might not be much lead time between when the National Weather Service issues a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning and when the storm actually hits. 

If it's tornado warning, head to the basement pronto. If it's a severe thunderstorm warning, do the same, or at least stay away from the windows. 

It's still impossible to say who gets the worst storms around here. It'll be kind of random. The risk is statewide. And in adjacent states.  As always, it will be a matter of one town getting blasted by wind damage while the next town over is perfectly fine. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has the highest chances of tornadoes in central and southern Vermont, but again, they could pop up anywhere. 

Clouds have generally won out over sunshine late this morning and early afternoon. That might ever so slightly diminish the risk, but certainly not get rid of it. 

As the National Weather Service office in South Burlington said in a special weather statement issued a little before noon, we have a rare combination of high humidity, wind shear and forcing. 

By wind shear, they mean the wind is changing in direction and speed with height, which helps storms rotate and potentially generate a tornado. By forcing, they mean the atmosphere is primed to support tall, rapidly growing storms that can turn severe super fast.  

A disturbance called a pre-frontal trough is heading our way from New York this afternoon, which would further enhance storms. Also, a weak boundary extending down the Connecticut River Valley might add to the spin in the atmosphere, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, which might concentrate the tornado risk there. But again, that problem could occur anywhere in Vermont and surrounding areas. 

 The National Weather Service, in their special weather statement, went as far to suggest that people who live in mobile homes consider if possible relocating to more sturdy buildings this afternoon and evening. 

Pay attention to the weather, and warnings from now into the evening. The peak of this mess will probably come mid afternoon, but there could well be trouble before and after that. 

Stay safe, but don't panic. We don't mean to scare you because obviously if there are any tornadoes, they'll affect a tiny percentage of us. The damaging winds won't affect everybody either. But you never know in advance what will happen. Take all weather warnings today seriously, and make sure you have multiple ways to receive them. 

Weird Storm Endangers Much Of South Today; Up Here In Vermont, We Escape Big Effects, Again

This is just one forecast model, but all the predictions for
today call for a horrendous line of storms in the South 
that will include straight line winds of up to 80 mph
and the risk of tornadoes. 

 Wildfires, lightning and hail peppered areas of the Great Plains Tuesday, a prelude to a dangerous and in some ways weird weather day for United States today.  

By far the biggest problem today is in a large area centered on Mississippi and extending into surrounding states. 

A squall line was already causing some severe storms in eastern Texas and Oklahoma this morning, and this line will intensify into a powerhouse that you will probably see on the news later today or tomorrow. 

There's already been some damage. I saw news of at least one house burning in Oklahoma due to wildfires from yesterday. And social media this morning has images of what looks like tornado damage in Arkansas.

Usually, afternoons and evenings are the peak times for the most powerful storms, and that will be the case today.  However, ominously, the squall line had already prompted a large tornado watch over most of Arkansas, northern Louisiana, northeastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma early this morning. 

This line will be serious to say the least as it produces a wall of thunderstorms, some with winds gusting to 80 mph or more. Worse, there's plenty of spin in the atmosphere to stir up tornadoes, some of which might be strong and long lasting this afternoon and tonight. 

As the National Weather Service office in Jackson, Mississippi notes, there might not be as many tornadoes as during last week's outbreak of dangerous weather. But more people will be affected by damaging storms due to the expected nearly solid line of storms bearing powerful straight-line winds today. 

One weird aspect of this system is the strong winds out ahead of the squall line.  It's usually breezy ahead of these things, but this is more intense. Winds in and near Mississippi could gust to 60 mph well before any thunderstorms pester them.

They'll have scattered tree and power line damage hours before any storms make things exponentially worse.  

A large area of the South remains under a risk of
very severe thunderstorms and tornadoes today.

Further north, in the central Appalachians, strong winds will create a fire hazard today as forests haven't leafed out yet.  Strong March sun has dried the forest floors, so the winds today could stir up some fire trouble. We also see a nasty risk of wildfires in Florida, southern Texas and along the western Texas/Oklahoma border.

In Michigan, it's the opposite problem.  An ice storm is ongoing in northern parts of that state, just to keep the weird motif of the entire storm going. 

Tomorrow, there's a lower risk of severe weather but some thunderstorms could cause damaging winds in New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and Virginia. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

As has been the case with so many storms lately, the Green Mountain State will lead a charmed life with this expansive storm system.  In other words, it'll affect us, but just not all that badly.

It was nice and clear, but cold early this morning. Most of us were in the teens at dawn, but perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York was at a big fat 0 degrees.

You'll see it cloud up pretty quickly today, and by evening, there could be a little light snow, rain, or mixed precipitation coming in.  That'll be a warm front that will race through overnight. 

When you get up tomorrow morning, it will suddenly be much warmer than it's been, especially if you're west of the Green Mountains. 

It'll be a warm-ish breezy to windy day Thursday with highs near 50 east and the upper 50s west. There could be a few showers around, but I think most of the day will be dry until you start getting into the late afternoon and especially evening. 

Showers, some possibly with brief downpours will come through with a cold front Thursday night.  We could even hear a few rumbles of thunder. 

Then, from Saturday onward into the middle of next week, we end up with near average weather for this time of year. Saturday might be a little on the cool side, but it won't be nearly as cold as we just had.  Highs in the 40s doesn't sound awful, does it?