"Dry Lightning" Sets Much Of The West On Fire

Much of the tiny town of Chinese Camp, California
was destroyed by a wildfire caused by a barrage
of "dry lightning" this wee. The town was 
a historic Gold Rush hamlet with many
Chinese immigrants. Pictured is one of
the destroyed historic buildings there. 

Lightning strikes this week greatly added to the already growing list of western wildfires, especially in California. 

In just one 24 hour period earlier this week, nearly 17,000 lightning strikes were recorded in California. Many of those were "dry lightning" which is lightning in storms that produce little or no rain. 

These are especially dangerous in the West, as it's the driest time of the year out there. 

Vegetation has been cooking in the summer sunshine in a season that almost never brings much rain. So, inevitably, a bunch of new wildfires started with the lightning. 

As of today, many continued to burn. 

The worst of it might have been a broad area near the San Francisco Bay area early Tuesday morning. 

Per USA Today:

"Between  midnight and 5:30 a.m. local time, nearly 4,800 lightning strikes were recorded, including in-cloud and cloud to ground lightning.  Lightning data shared by the National Weather Service showed that the lightning strikes were concentrated in areas between the inland East Bay and Central Valley." 

Not much rain accompanied the Bay Area thunderstorms.  The National Weather Service office in the Bay Area reported numerous fire starts. So far, the new fires have not consumed much acreage. 

Another lightning hotspot on Tuesday was in the central and southern Sierra Nevada foothills.  Daniel Swain, a University of California Los Angeles climate scientist, said at around noon local time that there were dozens of new lightning ignitions already reported mostly in the foothills with many more coming in by the minute. 

These new fires were in addition to several fires that had been burning for several days. Many of these fires were spreading amid hot, dry weather. 

The fires have already created some serious losses. As the Washington Post reports: 

"Several parts of Tuolumne County, including the town of Chinese Camp, were ordered to evacuate on Tuesday. Video footage shared by KCRA 3 News, a Sacramento broadcaster, showed destroyed homes and downed power lines in the town, a historic mining settlement once home to thousands of Chinese immigrants during the Gold Rush." 

The fact there are already so many new fires, in addition to the pre-existing ones, makes it hard for firefighters to figure out which blazes to target, since they can't get to them all. That increases the chances that any of the fires could really get out of hand and race through a town or neighborhood when the winds pick up. 

To give you an idea how many fires are overwhelming responders, there's this:  The initial firefighters responding to a blaze usually give a particular wildfire a name based on things like nearby landmarks. So you get things like the Gifford Fire now burning in California, and the Dragon Bravo fire, which burned 106 buildings on the North Rim of the Grand Canyon in early July and is still burning

So many lightning-started blazes cropped up Tuesday that CalFire just called the collection of blazes the TCU September Lightning Complex and are given individual new fires numbers, like the 6-5 Fire and the 2-7 Fire.  There's no time to come up with names. 

It also doesn't help that the weather pattern is keeping much of California and the Pacific Northwest unusually warm this week, and mostly dry. In the far northwestern part of California, vegetation is at near record dry levels for this time of year.

Several wildfires are also raging in British Columbia, Canada amid unprecedented September heat.  Ashcroft, British Columbia hit 105.4 degrees Fahrenheit Wednesday, the hottest September temperature on record for the entire nation of Canada. 

More dry lighting is going on today in parts of British Columbia, Oregon and Washington today and tomorrow, so there might be even more blazes to add to the long list of 'em currently burning. 

Meanwhile, the fires are producing widespread air quality alerts in large parts of Washington, Oregon, Idahos, Wyoming and western Montana.

It's starting to affect us here in Vermont again. I noticed a little smoke aloft today, after going at least two weeks with very little smoke in the air around here. 

Fires still burning in Canada, along with the growing number of fires in the western United States will keep spreading smoke across much of the nation, probably for the next several weeks. 

Watch House Get Struck By Lightning, Burn Down

A home burns in Spring, Texas shortly after a 
lightning strike. Not all lightning strikes cause fires
like this but once they get going, the
blazes can move pretty fast.

 It's amazing how quickly a lightning strike can can cause chaos.

 Thunderstorms rumbled through the Houston area last Friday, typical weather in that humid part of the nation. 

But lightning is always dangerous and often destructive, and we have a classic case here. Doorbell cameras caught lightning hitting a house. Within minutes, almost the entire roof was in flames.

It looks like a somewhat newer house, and this type modern wood frame homes seem to burn down awfully fast once they catch.  

Watch the videos: 

The first video shows a house being struck by lightning in Spring, Texas, a suburb north of Houston. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Moments have the strike, the house looked like what you see in the next video. The house is essentially a total loss, even though neighbors called the fire department immediately after the strike and those firefighters got there quickly. 

The roof and attic are gone, and I'm sure the rest of the house is trashed by heat, fire, smoke and water. 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

I had a little trouble finding reliable statistics on house fires caused by lightning. One source, lightningrods.com, could well have an agenda, but here's what they said 

They claim that one in 200 homes are hit by lightning annually, though many of those don't cause fires. Lightningrods,com also say that between 2014-2018 U.S. fire departments responded to an estimated 22,600 fires started by lightning. 

That statistic didn't break down what percentage were in homes, businesses, other buildings and no buildings at all. It looks like that was the most recent data available, too.

Up here in Vermont, we don't have nearly as many thunderstorms as, say, Florida and Texas, so we're somewhat safer from these house fires. Unfortunately, though, you never know, 

On the bright side, no lightning storms are in the forecast until at least Saturday, and thunderstorm season up here will soon draw to a close, 

 

Lightning Doesn't Play! Some Examples

A lightning strike in Ferrisburgh, Vermont in 
August, 2023. Photo was taken through a windshield
while I was inside a truck with windows rolled up
Much safer inside a vehicle than standing
outside during lightning storms. 

 I'm always amazed at how destructive in strange ways lightning can be. 

We've all seen videos of lightning blowing up trees, or starting forest fires, or setting homes ablaze.

But it's still always fascinating to hear survival stories. They're better than hearing about lightning deaths, right?  

This post might end up making you paranoid the next time you hear thunder. 

Nap Interrupted

A couple weeks ago, a man was taking an afternoon nap in his Ormond Beach, Florida home when the building was struck by lightning. By some miracle, the house didn't catch fire, but the bolt was so strong it caused the ceiling and part of the roof to collapse on him 

Judging from the video, it almost looks like a tornado hit the house, not lightning. It wasn't even storming over the house. The lightning appears to have come out laterally from a nearby thunderstorms and the down on the house.

In addition to the damage to the roof and bedroom, all the electronics in the house were fried, and pieces of roofing tile were scattered all over the pool deck. 

Which proves the adage that if you can hear thunder,  even if it seems like it's in the distance, you're close enough to get struck by lightning. 

Alligator Zap

Now, staying in Florida (Of course!) an alligator farm of all things was struck by lightning this past week. The strike collapsed the largest oak tree in the St. Augustine alligator farm lagoon.  It appears the alligators survived the strike just fine. More importantly, the fencing surrounding the alligator enclosure held, which is nice. 

Somebody commenting on Facebook said whoever has to go in with a chainsaw to clean up the collapsed tree will have an interesting day.  Yeah, glad that's not my problem. 

Streamer Shocked

In another case, a streamer was hit by lightning while viewers watched. 

Luckily, it wasn't that bad, for the streamer and gamer, Chris Howard of North Carolina.  I kid you not, his handle on Twitch is Chrispymate. He's OK.

The electricity went into both the streamer's earbuds while he sat inside his house and caused an audible crackle and flash. The streamer looked stunned, obviously, and he then briefly staggered away. 

He came back on to explain what happened, though his microphone glitched a little, apparently due to lightning damage. The streamer is OK though. 

Electric Avenue

Also recently, a motorist was driving along a highway and filming the storm he was plowing through when lightning hit the vehicle. The video shows that the SUV he was in kept going after the strike, which is remarkable. 

The motorist said the lightning strike also blew chunks of pavement out of the road. 

All these incidents ended with no serious injuries, but remember - to be Captain Obvious here - lightning is exceptionally dangerous. So far this year, 13 people have died in lightning strikes. 

Being in or near water seemed to be the common denominator. Seven of the deaths involved people who were fishing, on boats or at the beach. 

Lightning Strike Extended Over 500 Miles, There Might Be Even Bigger Ones. Also Lightning Contiinues To Kill

Schematic shows the extent of what is now regarded
as the biggest lighting flash on record, coming from
a complex of storms in the southern Plains
on October 22, 2017

We have a new world record for a strange, and rather old event. 

Back on October, 22 2017, a lighting bolt flashed over the southern Plains. That fact isn't the least bit unusual, considering how often thunderstorms happen there. 

This one, though, was recently certified as the longest lighting strike on record, It was a whopping 515 miles long, spanning from near Dallas to just east of Kansas City, Missouri.  

 It wasn't just a narrow line between the two points either. Branches of this bolt lit up the sky over much of southeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri. 

The old record was for actually  more recent  477.2 mile long bolt across the southern Plains on April 29, 2020. 

As the Washington Post tells us:

Relatively new technology allows data from GOES 16, 17, 18 and 19 satellites hovering 22,236 miles about the ground to map the origins of each flash. These satellites can sense lightning discharges from above, even if they don't strike the ground. 

Although most of this mega-strike and all other almost-as-big strikes stay aloft, some parts of them strike the ground. The data from the satellites is then merged to ground based lighting strike data from something called the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network.  This particular record setter from October, 2017 produced 64 bolts (branches, really) that struck the ground. 

So yeah, these mega-strikes can be dangerous.

The technology to analyze these giant lightning strikes has only existed for about a decade. Given that short time frame, researchers are sure they will find even bigger bolts than the one from October 2017. 

FASCINATING LIGHTNING

Mega-flashes are fascinating, not only because they are so big. 

They also last much longer than you see in standard-issue lightning bolts you see in "normal" summertime storms. 

The record breaking mega-flash lasted seven seconds. Another mega-strike over Uruguay and northern Argentina on June 18, 2020 lasted 17.1 seconds. 

As CNN tells us, oddly, mega-bolts tend to form in the weaker, outer parts of storms systems, and not the intense core where we'd think lighting would originate.

Fewer than 1 percent of all lightning bolts can be considered mega-flashes. 

The World Meteorological Organization said this particular flash was not spotted in an original analysis of the storm, but scientist re-examined the storm and measured this 2017 mega-flash. 

The WMO in its announcement brought two other lightning records to our attention. They are both, unfortunately, horrific. As the Washington Post reports:

"The WMO also referenced two other lightning records - both for fatality counts from single strikes. In 1975, 21 people in Zimbabwe were killed by a bolt as they huddled inside a hut for safety. And in 1994, 469 people were killed in Dronka, Egypt when lightning struck a set of oil tanks, sparking a fire and causing burning oil to flood the town."

Meanwhile, in the United States, lightning continues to take a toll. So far, 13 Americans have died from lightning strikes, the same number as in all of last year.  

If there's a bright side, we're not on pace to be the worst lightning year in recent memory. Back in 2016, the nation saw 40 lightning deaths. 

 

All Signs Point Toward Severe Weather In Vermont/Eastern U.S/Quebec Today, Nasty Hot Spell Coming

Today's updated severe thunderstorm threat around the
nation. Yellow areas including Vermont, are in a level
two out of five risk zone for severe storms
meaning there will be scattered instances of damaging
winds. There's a level three of five in the
Mid-Atlantic states (orange shading). The risk
of damaging winds is somewhat higher there, 

Those who were looking for thunderstorms in Vermont yesterday ended up coming up empty. 

Most of the storms stayed in New York, with flash flooding out in central and western New York. 

Some showers and storms did venture into far northwest Vermont but petered out rather quickly last evening.

Today is when everybody in a wide swath from southern Quebec down to the Carolinas is under threat from severe storms.  This obviously includes Vermont. 

Not everybody in this vast patch of real estate will see severe storms, of course, but the threat is there. 

This risk in the entire region I outlined includes damaging straight line winds, large hail, downpours torrential enough to set off some flash floods and even a low but not zero risk of tornadoes.

The biggest threat for tornadoes appears to be in the mostly flatlands of southern Quebec, near and south of Montreal. The higher threat of wind damage at the moment seems to be around New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and part of Virginia.

That does not mean Vermont is off the hook of course. We still have all of the above threat in play.

On top of that, another round of storms is possible Saturday night here in the Green Mountain State, followed by a brief, dangerous, very torrid spell of weather.

So let's next get to work planning your stormy day today, at least as things stood this morning. Stay on your toes, because things can change rapidly though the day.

TODAY'S SETUP

A sort of "preview" storm late Wednesday afternoon
looking west from Georgia Vermont. You can see
a column of torrential rain in the distance. Very few
storms in Vermont Wednesday, but they'll be much
more numerous today. 

A batch of showers and brief downpours was moving into mostly, but not exclusively into northwest Vermont as of 8 a.m. It looks like most of those were brushing far northwest parts of the state from St. Albans, north. 

It's so humid with an already unstable atmosphere, that a pop up downpour or thunderstorm could happen randomly almost anywhere in Vermont this morning.

They will be relatively few and far between, but enough so that you'll need to keep your eyes on the skies and be ready to head indoors quickly. Even this morning. 

It'll be interesting to see whether these showers, and lingering clouds behind them that would last most of the morning, will stabilize the atmosphere some and reduce the chances of strong storms later. Or maybe this will form a sort of new temperature boundary across part of Vermont that would enhance the storms that due later. 

There will also be a stalled west to east front across southern Quebec most of today that I think will enhance changing wind directions with height in the atmosphere. That's why I think there could be a tornado or two in southern Quebec. 

Northern Vermont will be on the edge of that, so despite the cloud cover today, the chances of severe storms remains in effect north of Route 2. 

All of Vermont should have plenty of humidity today, and especially places south of Route 2 should get into the mid and upper 80s to near 90 in a few places in the lower Connecticut River Valley. That's one ingredient needed for big storms.

The other storm ingredient is a cold front heading due east across New York State towards us. That will act a bit like a snow plow, providing lift in the atmosphere as it shoves into the muggy air over us. That lift is the rising air currents that lead to towering clouds, i.e thunderstorms.

THE RESULTS

This will be a classic summer severe weather day in Vermont. By that, I mean a few towns - definitely a minority of places in Vermont - will see damaging wind gusts that would take down trees and power lines, and possibly cause a little structural damage.

Most but not all of us will see some sort of thunderstorm today. Some of us will get bullseyed by downpours and a lot of lightning and some wind gusts. A few of us will be on the edge of some of these storms and have only minor effects and not a whole lot of rain.

Another few of us will get nothing at all. People in those towns will wonder what the fuss was about, having endured a humid, but rain-free day. 

I doubt there will be one solid line of storms that comes through. Instead, we're in for short lines and clusters of storms that will keep passing through, mostly between around 2 p.m. this afternoon and 11 p.m tonight. 

I wouldn't expect the storms today to be severe after dark, so we'll say 2 to 8 p.m. is the most likely time for anything severe. 

The other threat from today's storms is flash flooding. The good news is each storm will be moving along at a good clip. That means those torrential downpours won't last long in any particular spot.  They won't have time to put down enough water to cause a flood.

The problems would come if a few unlucky spots get three or four or five rounds of storms instead of just one or two. Then you start running into issues. Flash floods today in Vermont if they happen should be pretty isolated and not cover large areas.

FRIDAY:

Kind of a weird day, but nothing dramatic. The morning will be cool and windy and kind of cloudy, making it almost feel like autumn was in the air. Temperatures before noon should hold in the 60s.  Then, the flow of cool  Canadian air will get most shut off pretty fast. By late afternoon, it should be back in the mid and upper 70s with sharply diminished winds. The sun will have come back out. 

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT

Saturday itself looks like it will be a nice day for a change. We should have quite a bit of sun, with highs peaking within a couple degrees either side of 80 degrees. The humidity should be moderate, so enjoy!

However, we're still looking at the risk of a cluster of storms blasting through overnight Saturday night and early Sunday. We're still not sure exactly where they'll focus, or even whether they will entirely hit Vermont. But there is the risk of a noisy night with thunder and locally torrential downpours if we get hit squarely.

Stay tuned!

THE HEAT

The hot weather will begin to flood in on Sunday. It still looks like a decent beach day, with highs in the 80s to near 90. You'll also notice the  humidity building.

Monday looks like it'll be the worst of it, It now looks like actual high temperatures should hit the mid-90s in many valley locations in Vermont. Combined with the humidity, the heat index will probably be over 100 degrees. 

It'll be a dangerous day for anybody with health issues or those who exert themselves outdoors. Monday's the day to really take it easy, and seek out air conditioning if you can.

Record highs might fall. The current record highs for Monday are 96 degrees in Burlington, 90 in Montpelier and 93 in St. Johnsbury. 

Monday night will be dreadfully hot and stuffy, with lows staying near or above 70 for most of us with stifling humidity. 

Tuesday is now a bit of a wild card, depending on the timing of a cold front. If it comes through early, the heat won't be too bad, especially north.  If it comes in the afternoon, that means it'll uncomfortably hot with a risk of strong storms. If it comes through in the evening, then Tuesday will be just as bad as Monday.

We'll keep an eye on that.

The front will have come through by Wednesday, but should linger close by, meaning we'll remain at risk for showers and maybe storms later into next week too. It should actually stay near to a little warmer than average even behind the cold front that will end the heat wave 

 

UPDATE: First Mention Of Snow Of The Season In Vermont Forecast

A classic "snowliage" photo I took in October, 2022 that
I've put out here a few times. It's inspiration for an
a potential good chance for you to take similar photos
Thursday. Light snow is in the forecast for the
Green Mountain summits overnight Wednesday. 

 Skies in parts of Vermont Sunday evening were pretty interesting. 

Some people reported catching glimpses of the northern lights before clouds moved in during the evening. 

Expected northern lights never really materialized Saturday night, so they tried to put on a brief show Sunday. So that was a treat!

The aurora Sunday was quickly pre-empted by lightning flashes to the west. Severe thunderstorms had broken out in western New York due to a pretty potent weather disturbance and cold front. 

Those storms weakened on approach to Vermont, but still produced some lightning toward western areas before petering out into just showers. 

Those storms last night heralded the long expected shift to cooler autumn weather. 

With that, we'll see those chilly temperatures, scattered showers and...... it does indeed look like we will see a bit of mountain snow Wednesday night and early Thursday. 

Snow on mountain summits is not the least bit unusual once we get into October. But this autumn has been so warm it's a bit of a shock to the system. 

A disturbance riding around the dip of the jet stream will bring those light showers and colder temperatures to the region. The National Weather Service in South Burlington has mentioned snow in the forecast for the first time this autumn. 

As the chillier air filters in Wednesday night, it will start snowing on the mountain peaks. There won't be much accumulation on the summits, maybe an inch, two if things really get out of hand. In northern Vermont, elevations as low as 1,500 feet above sea level might see a few wet snowflakes mix in with the rain drops early Thursday. 

So no, this won't exactly be an icy commuter nightmare Thursday morning. But it is a reminder to get your snow tires ready.  It's coming folks! 

Bumpy Weather Today For Vermont: Strong Storms, Smoke And Humidity

Lighting crackles over my St. Albans, Vermont
house Wednesday evening. We'll do it again today
with scattered storms, mostly east and locally
strong, and also a batch of wildfire 
smoke to make it all the more stressful. 

 Wednesday was a sometimes noisy preview of what Vermont can expect today. 

There was a little smoke in the air, it was a bit humid, and some thunderstorms really made themselves felt in a few spots.  

Today in the Green Mountain State, we'll crank that up with thicker smoke, more numerous and possibly more intense storms in a few spots than yesterday, and higher humidity than on Wednesday. 

Wednesday's storms mostly put on a show in northern Vermont, especially the Champlain Valley. A couple  were borderline severe, with quarter sized hail reported in Georgia and penny sized hail in St. Albans Bay. 

At my place on the eastern side of St. Albans, just outside the edges of that initial severe, I had two lightning-filled storms. The second was stronger, with gusts to about 35 mph and a few pea-sized hail stones. 

Wednesday's storms were interesting too. I watched all afternoon as a cluster of storms slowly headed south from Quebec, passing by Montreal in the late afternoon and descending into Franklin County toward 6:30 or 7.  

They remained pretty intense after crossing the border into Vermont until entering Chittenden County, where they started to quickly fall apart. But then, even though we'd lost the sun that would maintain instability, new storms formed super quickly in Franklin County and headed south. 

A cold pool of air aloft over northwest Vermont was able to keep the storms going.  The lightning show was pretty impressive.

Today, Quebec will be gifting us with more storms than yesterday and a big gulp of smoke. Thanks, Canada! 

TODAY

We've still got an upper level low pressure off to our northeast that's keeping a flow from the north aloft. Meanwhile, near the surface, higher humidity is coming in from the south. 

Another spoke of energy from that upper low to our east will come south today, and the combination will set us up again for more storms.

There were already a couple spot showers in the Northeast Kingdom as of 7:30 a.m today, and those will increase as the day goes on. 

This piece of energy is stronger than last evening's and will come in this afternoon, right at peak heating. That sets us up for more pretty rambunctious storms. We're under a level one marginal risk for severe storms today, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. That means we'll at least have some isolated incidents of damaging winds and hail.

The storms this afternoon will be most concentrated along and east of the Green Mountains, especially in the Northeast Kingdom.  I know, I know, flood fears, after the summer the Kingdom has had. .It doesn't look like today's storms will have rain intense enough to cause any real, new water damage, which is good. 

Even though the storms will be most concentrated in the NEK, they could pop up in hit or miss fashion just about anywhere this afternoon and evening, and a handful could be briefly strong just about anywhere. 

Smoke

That north flow is also grabbing a batch of thicker smoke from Canadian fires and will bring it south into Vermont today. Much of the smoke will be aloft, but some of the smoke will be near the surface as well by this afternoon. Air quality was good in the Green Mountain State this morning, but will probably deteriorate some this afternoon. 

In any event, you will see an increase in haze and you night smell something like a campfire where someone added little garbage into the flames. 

If you have issues that affect your lungs, it might be wise to stay indoors with air conditioning today.  One note: Sometimes, smoke can suppress thunderstorms a bit. I don't know whether that will have any effect on the storms today. 

OUTLOOK

Friday will be calmer: Just mostly sunny through some smoky haze, warm and humid. There might be some isolated showers and storms over the mountains during the afternoon and evening, but they will be very few and far between if they form at all.

A very slow moving storm that I referred to yesterday as coming in from the Great Lakes will give us an unsettled, humid weekend.  Showers are possible both Saturday and Sunday, but more likely Sunday. A few of them could be heavy rainers. That state of affairs will continue on Monday before things slowly begin to improve. 

Vermont 1 p.m Wednesday Update: Severe Storm Watch Likely Southern Vermont, Storms Developing

Skies over St. Albans darkening as of 12:45 p.m today
as thunderstorms approach. A few more places in
Vermont today will lose some trees, branches and
power lines, and there might be isolated instances'
of flash flooding. Today is the last day of 
potentially damaging storms for awhile. 

 As expected thunderstorms were rapidly developing in eastern New York State as of 12:30 today, and some of those will carry the risk of damaging wind gusts in southern and possibly eastern Vermont this afternoon.  

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says they'll likely issue a severe thunderstorm watch for much of western New England and eastern New York, and that would probably include southern Vermont. 

A batch of non-severe but growing storms was entering the northwest corner of Vermont as of 12:30 p.m. It was starting to thunder in St. Albans, Vermont at 12:45 p.m. 

Some of those might intensify into stronger cells in the next few hours. But damage from these, if it occurs, will probably be fairly isolated.

Those northern storms will be carrying torrential downpours, and could set off isolated spots of flash flooding, given how wet the soil is. 

The storms developing in the Albany, New York Capitol District area look meaner than the ones further north. Those should enter Bennington and Rutland counties within the next couple hours and continue across southern Vermont into New Hampshire.

A severe thunderstorm warning was already in effect for far western Bennington County as of 1 p.m. 

Those will ones to definitely look out for.  Some of them almost certainly will contain strong gusty winds and torrential downpours. Not all towns in southern Vermont will have severe storms, but a few places might lose some trees or power lines. 

Pay attention to the weather and possible warnings all afternoon. I'd abandon plans for boating on Lake Champlain for the day.  

This won't be a super widespread event, but we will have spots of trouble in Vermont this afternoon and early evening. 

The great news is we expect no more storminess or dangerous weather after today at least through Monday and quite possibly beyond that. 

Super Stormy From Midwest To East Ahead Of A Break In Oppressive Heat

Lightning crackles across the sky last night
over St. Albans, Vermont. 

 Changes in weather patterns often go out with a bang.

So it is currently as severe storms and tornadoes have been hitting huge areas from the Plains, through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. 

The extensive severe weather - a bit rare for July - is a function of a weather pattern change that will bring an end to a long siege of hot, humid air in the Midwest and Northeast. This break in the heat could last at least a week in many places. 

We're included in those not-so-fun stormy times here in Vermont, but luckily it isn't as bad here - and won't be - as in many other area of the nation. 

Two rounds of powerful storms trekked from the Midwest to the Northeast since Sunday night. 

ROUND ONE 

The first began Sunday, rocking its way through Illinois, Indiana and surrounding states. There was widespread damage in and around Chicago, with roof and tree damage throughout the city. Two weak tornadoes were reported in Chicago's South Side, and winds gusted as high as 70 mph across the city. 

The disturbance that caused that erupted again Monday over western New York, dropping tennis ball sized hail in a couple towns, prompted tornado warnings and caused more tree and power line damage. This less than a week after a rare tornado outbreak in western and central New York. 

Those storms generally weakened as they headed into New England. But they were responsible for our light show and downpours last night.   

ROUND TWO

The second band of storms that originated over western Iowa grew even more intense than Sunday's blast as it headed into Illinois and Indiana last evening. Winds gusted to 75 mph at Chicago's O'Hare airport and there reports of possible tornadoes near O'Hare and Midway airports. Video showed what appeared to be a tornado moving over O'Hare. 

Radar images showed pretty tight rotation in a storm over downtown Chicago, where tornado warnings blared for a time last night. 

Wind gusted to 105 mph in an unincorporated town north of Peoria, Illinois, 101 mph in Davis Junction, Illinois just south of Rockford, and 93 mph in Lena, Illinois, a small town west of Rockford.

A woman died in Indiana when a tree fell on her home.  

VERMONT EXCITEMENT, HEAT

Burlington, Vermont reached 91 degrees Monday, the tenth day this year of 90 degree heat.  That makes it the fifth year in a row that had at least 10 such days.  That kind of streak has never happened before. Each of the past ten years has had at least eight 90 degree days. 

Lightning over St. Albans, Vermont last night. 

Previously, the longest such streak was six years in the 1940s.

We might make it to 90 again today, but that will likely be the last such day for a long time. It might not make it to 90 again this month as we anticipate a drier, cooler flow of air from the northwest starting Thursday. 

A heat advisory is in effect today for the Champlain and Connecticut Valleys. The rest of Vermont will be pretty oppressive, too.

Last night's storms hit areas that suffered the severe flooding last week. They weren't big enough to cause any serious new flooding, but it kept things wet and primed for renewed flash flooding if storms later today can produce strong enough downpours. Many areas in the northern half of Vermont had anywhere from a half inch to 1.5 inches of rain.

My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected a healthy 1.3 inches of rain from last night's storms. 

The disturbance that caused the wild weather and tornadoes in and near Chicago last night is heading our way, but it won't cause nearly as much drama as it did there. 

Still, we could see a few strong to severe storms and torrential downpours out of this. They could form in hit or miss fashion any time this afternoon, but most of them will hold off until after 5 p.m. 

Forecasts since yesterday have trended a little south with the most concentrated and intense storms, which steers the focus away from northern Vermont just a bit. 

Soils in the southern half of Vermont have a much greater capacity to absorb downpours at the moment than areas in the flash flood zone further north. 

While a severe storm is possible anywhere in Vermont later today, the best chance is along and south of Route 4.  Since the strongest storms will be south, that's where the most torrential downpours will probably set up, too.

That said, the air is so humid that there could be storms later today anywhere that could dump more than an inch of rain in an hour. That would set off a few local flash floods. Definitely nothing widespread or as severe as last week, but something to keep an eye on.

Tomorrow is still a surprising wildcard, given how the forecast for Wednesday is just a day away. We know we'll start off humid. There's some disagreement still on when the cold front will come through. The later in the day it arrives, the greater the chances of strong storms and more big downpours. 

Confidence in the forecast starting Thursday and into the weekend is still high. Humidity levels will crash. Temperatures will be just slightly on the cool side for the season Thursday, then back up into the low or even mid-80s in a couple spots Saturday.

Then a reinforcing shot of cool air from Canada comes in Sunday to drop temperatures further. By then, we'll deal with ultra comfortable highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. 

At least at the moment, it looks like there will be little if any rain at all between Thursday and and at least next Monday, and possibly beyond that.  

Wednesday Afternoon Vermont Heat/Storm Update

 It'll probably be one of the worst weather days of the year by the time we finish up today, depending on your tastes.

As expected, the heat and humidity have built up even more than yesterday. Scattered thunderstorms have also been developing, and rains from those have only added to the humidity. 

Satellite photo from a little after noon shows a severe
thunderstorm over northern Vermont near Canadian
border, a former strong storm over eastern Vermont
showing signs of a revival, and more storms developing
in eastern New York. Extreme heat/humidity and 
storms will continue all afternoon. 

Temperatures will actually be all over the place this afternoon, with most places solidly in the low to mid 90s with a heat index easily around 100.

From now through sunset is a great time to find a cool place, don't exert yourself outside and stay hydrated.  

Thunderstorms are proving to be an interesting part of the mix. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center singled out eastern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire as a likely place for widely scattered severe storms this afternoon 

While they won't be widespread enough to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch, we should still really be on the lookout for these things.

 They've already started.

As I mentioned this morning, many of them form super quickly. One storm formed as just a small cloud with a sprinkle under it on the west shore of Lake Champlain at around 10:50 a.m. By the time it was over Swanton and St. Albans just over a half hour later, it was a strong storm with torrential rains, frequent cloud to ground lighting and winds gusting to 30 mph. 

Less than 15 minutes after that, it was a storm carrying a severe warning with possible gusts to 60 mph heading into Sheldon and Enosburg. 

Within 15 minutes of the storm ending, it was sunny, hot and humid again in St. Albans. This is the type of afternoon we'll have all day in Vermont. Always a risk of a quick pop up storm with dangerous lightning and downpours, and that constant oppressive feel. 

In other words, a typical July day in South Florida. 

We'll do it all tomorrow too.

So today, stay safe from the heat, the humidity the lightning and the storms 

Surprisingly Heavy Downpours Sunday. Will We Do It Again Tuesday?

Heavy looking clouds near South Burlington, Vermont
Sunday afternoon portended some unexpectedly
heavy downpours in parts of northern Vermont. 
We might see some more heavy showers Tuesday. 

 UPDATE 10:30 a.m.:

Surprised again.

More rain showers are making inroads into what we thought was too-dry air for much activity.

So at least parts of Vermont should be more showery today than I indicated below.

It won't rain all the time.  But we are under some risk of showers today. Especially central and southern Vermont as it looks now.

It will probably be even a little cooler than first forecast because of the extra clouds associated with the showers

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

After the morning thunderstorms Sunday, I thought any showers we'd receive later in the day would be pretty scattered and probably not that impressive. 

If there were to be any downpours, they'd be really brief, and most of us would only get a little rain.

So much for that idea.

Some of those downpours late Sunday afternoon were remarkably heavy and persistent. 

They lacked the spark and crackle of the morning lightning storms. But much of northern Vermont received a half inch to an inch of rain Sunday. I'm sure a few spots had a little more than that. 

I didn't have my rain gauge out yet, silly me. But judging from the sudden river flowing through my property late Sunday afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised if I had more than an inch of rain.

By the way, the lightning Sunday morning had some sad consequences. Lightning struck a four unit apartment building in Morristown, Vermont.  The lightning caused a fire that left extensive damage and occupants of all four units displaced. 

The storms Sunday left things pretty squishy underfoot once again.  That leaves us at risk for perhaps some minor flooding Tuesday if things come together a certain way in the atmosphere.  It's a tricky forecast. It's all about temperature gradients and stubborn weather systems. 

We'll go through it here

TODAY

A cold front came through last night.  That's why we had all that rain.  The air got quite humid Sunday afternoon for this time of year.  The cold front provided enough lift to wring out that moisture. 

The front has sagged south into southern Vermont.  That will set up quite a temperature gradient today. Highs will only reach the mid 50s in many spots north of Route 2 but reach 70 in southeastern Vermont. 

The cool high pressure system is feeding in dry air in at least some layers of the atmosphere. The result will be a fair amount of clouds today, but very little in the way of showers. There might be some spot sprinkles here or there, but that's it. 

TONIGHT/TUESDAY

A surge of very warm, humid air will try to make a run at us. That cold front that came through last night will start to move north as a warm front. But that strong, stubborn cool high pressure over northern Quebec will push back against that surging muggy air.

That places Vermont square in the battleground. We'll mostly stay in the cooler air, but the humid air will try to go up and over that cooler air. The result could be more downpours.  

The question is where those heavy showers will set up. Will they repeat over the same area? How much rain will fall and where?

Those are questions that are tough to answer with this kind of weather pattern. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is going with a round of showers late tonight and tomorrow morning, and another one Tuesday evening. 

As always, forecasts are subject to change. 

Early bets have the heaviest rain in northern Vermont, but we'll see. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has most of Vermont in a low level marginal risk zone for possible flooding.  If anything does materialize it looks like it will be pretty minor. 

So we're not about to re-live last summer's mess.

Better yet, the rain won't persist for days.  It looks drier and somewhat warmer once we get into midweek with only very low chances of light showers. Another storm system might affect us on the weekend. But computer models are all over the place on that one, so we have no idea yet now the weekend weather will shake out. 

Northern Vermont Gets Wake Up Call Announcing Start Of Thunderstorm Season

Daylight before dawn. Screen grab of video as lightning
lit everything up in St. Albans, Vermont around
5:30 a.m today. 

 It's about that time of year when we start seeing thunderstorms, and northern Vermont got a wake up call regarding that early this Sunday morning. 

A nice big cluster of thunderstorms move from southern Ontario and Quebec crossed the international border into New York and Vermont early this morning at dawn.  The storms were by no means severe.

But they did produce impressively frequent lightning, downpours and small hail.  

Here in St. Albans, there was lightning and thunder for more than two hours beginning at roughly 5 a.m.  The strongest storm here dumped a pretty good amount of pea sized hail mixed with a downpour at around at around 5:45 a.m. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington issued a couple of special weather statements alerting people to the possibility of hail up to the size of dimes. 

Those of you who saw lightning this morning might have noticed the thunder sounded a little weird at times. 

The storms were elevated above a temperature inversion. That means there was a layer of the atmosphere that warmed a little with height, instead of cooling like you'd normally see. The inversion formed sort of a lid over us. That lid bounced around the sound waves from the thunder, giving them this deep rolling, at times almost crackling sound. 

Screen grab from lightningmaps.org shows plenty
of stakes across northern Vermont, southern Quebec
and northeastern New York around 6 a.m. today.

In any event, the batch of storms moved south and gradually weakened as the morning went on.

After a bit of a break from the rain and lightning, latter this morning we have more convective showers and maybe another couple of rumbles of thunder in the plan for this afternoon. The sun's heating will help create some instability with will work with a cold front coming in from the north. 

The result will be hit and miss showers this afternoon. Especially in the northern half of Vermont

Today's thunder was just a taste. Going forward through May and into the summer, you'll see forecasts of thunderstorms pop up more and more frequently. Eventually, we'll have a few bouts with potentially severe thunderstorms. Nothing like that is coming in the immediate future, though. 

In other words, let's get ready to rumble. 

UPCOMING WEEK

The work week will start cooler than forecasts issued a few days ago indicated. Cool high pressure from Canada will keep highs Monday in the upper 50s north of Route 2 to the low and mid 60s down to Route 4, and upper 60s in low elevations far south. 

That's close to normal, or a smidge below normal north for this time of year.

Another weather disturbance in a series brings more cool temperatures and showers Tuesday.  Wednesday and Thursday are looking somewhat drier and warmer before more showers arrive late in the week.  

After that, it's beginning to look like we might get into one those typical but vaguely annoying persistent May weather patterns featuring relatively cool temperatures, frequent clouds and an ever-present risk of light showers. 

No Rest For Weary Vermont: More Local Floods Friday, Much Bigger Threat Sunday

Lightning crackles in a thunderstorm well east of 
St. Albans Friday evening. Storms in Addison
County caused renewed flooding. 

UPDATE 2 PM SATURDAY

The fresh flooding in Addison County last night was even worse than I thought.

As VTDigger reports, a landslide destroyed a house.

Laurie Cox, one of Ripton's emergency management coordinators said the town's fire department was in the area evacuating people endangered by the rising Middlebury River. 

She said the town's fire chief was standing outside the house talking with the homeowner when the slide occurred, VTDigger reports.

"And right at that moment, the hillside collapsed, and house owner's truck got pushed right into the fire truck, and our fire chief was standing right in between them," Cox said. "Fortunately, it didn't quite come to where he would have been squished, really....I mean it literally could have killed him."

The affected family was house in an emergency shelter. Other homes in the area were evacuated due to high water from the river and the threat of more landslides. 

Ripton received a sizable 3.42 inches of rain overnight. 

Forecast updates for tomorrow's flood risk are due late this afternoon. 

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

Boy, we just aren't catching a break here in Vermont.

On Friday, I thought we just might squeak through a day in the Green Mountain State with no new damage, but nope!  

Storms fired up in the evening, mostly across central Vermont, and at least in a few spots, caused renewed flooding.

The epicenter this time was in  Addison County, where parts of Route 7, Route 116 and Route 125 were closed around East Middlebury.  I'm sure there were other road washouts and damage around East Middlebury and Ripton due to up to three inches of rain in a short time Friday evening. 

There weren't many other reports - at least so far - of other major trouble elsewhere in Vermont from Friday evening's storms, which produced quite a light show from the lightning in those clouds after the sun set. 

This all follows the confirmation of a tornado Thursday in northern Rutland County.  In case you read one of my posts mentioning two tornadoes, take note of an important correction:  There was only ONE confirmed tornado NOT two. Apologies for yesterday's error. 

Today, I'm convinced we will get a break in the weather. An isolated storm might pop up over the mountains this afternoon, but anything that does get going will be pretty tame.  But, it's a short break, and we have much more trouble for Sunday

SUNDAY FLOOD WATCH

Another disturbance and another flood alert is up for almost all of Vermont for Sunday.  The incoming storm has similarities to the one that caused the calamity on Monday. But a very important note is we will receive much, much less rain as we did nearly a week ago.  

That's the good news, if you're hunting for any glimmers of hope.

The bad news - and there's always bad news these days - is that we will receive enough rain to almost surely create new flash flooding in some parts of Vermont.  The flood watch starts Sunday morning and goes well into the night. 

The watch covers all of Vermont except the immediate Champlain Valley.  

Total rainfall Sunday looks to be in the one to two inch range, but some unlucky folks could get more than three inches of rain.  A few lucky devils could get less  than an inch of rain.  It's going to be pretty variable, with big differences in rainfall across Vermont. 

Storms passing southeast of St. Albans, Vermont Friday
evening at sunset made the sky look like a painting. 

Given how wet and unstable the ground is now, there's more than enough rain coming for many of us  to set off more flash flooding. That could undo some of the repairs that have been started. 

It looks like the rain will come in two batches. One goes through in the morning. It'll be mostly a steady drenching rain for a few hours, with downpours embedded in it. While this first round might touch off some flooding, it'll mostly serve to pre-soak things further for Round 2

Round 2 comes through in the afternoon and evening as a line of potentially torrential rain. This batch of rain has the highest chance of causing new problems, especially if heavy showers hit the same spot repeatedly. 

As always, it's pretty much impossible this far ahead of the storm to figure out which towns get the heaviest rains and which are spared. 

If you are in a flood prone area, even areas that escaped high water Monday and Tuesday, remain vigilant tomorrow and tomorrow night.  Don't drive over flooded roads, of course.  It's always risky to do that, but even more so now. They've just been patched up, and a lot of those fixes are temporary just to the roads could be reopened pending more permanent repairs. 

That makes these areas more prone to washouts and damage. 

At this point, it looks like most of the main rivers in Vermont will not go into flood. Downtown Montpelier looks safe from a renewed inundation, but of course officials will be watching the Wrightsville Dam spillway.

People are pretty optimistic there won't  be an issue with that dam, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

One river that is flooding, and will continue to flood through this is the Otter Creek in Rutland and Addison counties. 

It's already flooding in Addison County, thank's to torrential rains Thursday and Friday in the watershed between Brandon and Middlebury. 

Further south, the Otter Creek is probably going to go back into flood stage at Center Rutland, but won't get as high as it did Monday and Tuesday. 

Lake Champlain has risen by two feet since the start of the month and is now at about 98 feet. It will probably go up some more. At this point, it doesn't look like it will hit the flood stage of 100 feet, but the way this summer is going, you never know. 

OTHER TROUBLE

Once we get through Sunday, there's more flood risks on Tuesday and possibly toward the end of the upcoming week.  We're still trapped in the same basic weather pattern that took hold in late June. 

Meteorologists are watching Tuesday's system, as it could slow down as it tries to move through New England, possibly prolonging the rain. No guarantee that will happen, but it's something to keep an eye on. 

It's too soon to tell whether the rain late next week will be a troublemaker. Yet again, though, there's potential, so meteorologists are watching that one, too.

OTHER NEWS

As expected, President Biden approved Vermont Gov. Phil Scott's request for a major disaster declaration for Vermont. That opens the door for more federal assistance to help with the recovery.  I just hope if there's new damage Sunday or in the upcoming days, that will be covered.

Typically, disaster declarations are amended if more damage occurs days after the main show due to a persistent weather pattern, as we are experiencing here. 

In a sign of the times, downtown Montpelier streets are close to general traffic, at least for now. They've done that to give room for emergency vehicles and volunteers to help with the cleanup. 

You also better check whether your town is still under a boil water notice. A lot of water treatment plants were disrupted, and drinking water might have some issues. 

Despite the fact that today is going to be rather sunny and quite warm, I'd continue to stay out of swimming holes on the state's rivers and brooks. Water is still running fast and high, contaminants are probably still in the water, and debris on the river beds could cause injuries. 

If you want to help, Vermont Public has a great page guiding you toward ways you can be Vermont Strong. Click on this link for more. 

Classic Vermont Fourth Of July Weather In Progress, Including A Few Hazards

A classic Fourth of July sky at noon today in Vermont.
Hazy blue sky amid high humidity, and some
attempts at showers or thunderstorms forming
in the distance near the mountains. 

 If this isn't quintessential Vermont Fourth of July weather, I don't know what is. 

As of noon, it's really humid, hazy, with some sun and clouds. Some of those clouds are towering up into scattered showers and thunderstorms.  You can't have a Fourth of July without some fireworks, right?  

I'm posting later than usual today because I timed some hard physical labor early in the morning, to avoid the worst of the warmth and especially the humidity. 

I'm still hopelessly dehydrated from all that sweating and sipping Pedialyte in an attempt to recover.

Which leads me to my first caution of the day.  The humidity will sneak up on you, and could give you heat exhaustion pretty quickly. Especially if you're running around in the sun, drinking Bud Light like there's no tomorrow and not taking breaks in the shade. Maybe have some lemonade instead and take a few dips in the lake. Or wander under the lawn sprinkler from time to time. 

That mugginess is nasty out there. And it's going to stick around at least into Friday, if not beyond. 

Then there's another problem. Lightning.  That dip in the lake is probably a bad idea if there's a thunderstorm around. They're just scattered about as of early afternoon. They will continue to be hit and miss. And probably a little more common near the mountains than in the broad valleys.

 That said, anybody could see a storm today.  Have a  plan in place to take shelter from lightning. That means getting into a building or an enclosed car.  Don't get me wrong. I love the show that lightning can provide. Just don't get hit!  

Since the storms will tend to be dying down toward sunset, I think most Fourth of July fireworks in Vermont should go on as planned tonight.  There might even be an added bonus with heat lightning in the distance. One can only hope!

The last potential ;problem to bring up today is flooding. Those thunderstorms are moving wicked slowly. They're feeding off a lot of moisture, so they can produce intense downpours. Some parts of Vermont are already soggy from a lot of rain over the past 10 days or so.

The chance of flooding today is quite low in Vermont, to be honest. But one or two spots could get an unlucky flash flood, If you're planning on camping in the woods, I'd pick a spot that's pretty far uphill from a brook, just in case. 

The greater risk of any high water is south and east of us. I notice a good chunks of New Hampshire, Maine and southern New England is now under a flood watch. And as of noon, a flash flood warning was up for northern Connecticut. 

Bottom line: Happy Fourth of July. Enjoy the holiday, but be ready to change your plans to dodge any storms or showers that come along.  And stay cool! 

2022 Lightning Strikes Reveal National Weather....

 When climatologists do deep dives in how a climate might or might not be changing, they look at lightning strikes. 

Lightning activity, or the lack thereof, can tell us where droughts are developing, where droughts are ending and where severe weather is moving, changing or just being weird. 

A weather and environmental monitoring company called Vaisala Xweather compiled an analysis of lightning in the United States in 2022 into an annual report, something the company has done since at least 2015. 

Vaisala said lightning zapped in the United States a total of more than 198 million times in 2022. The state with the most strikes was Texas, with just under 30 million. 

As the Washington Post reports:

"Recently released U.S. lightning data by weather and environmental monitoring company Vaisala Xweather showed portions of the Midwest and Texas - typical lightning hot spots - had a weaker display of activity in 2022 compared to its recent average. The lack of lightning was a signal itself of atypical weather across the country last year, including major drought across the Mississippi River basin."

The Washington Post explains why lightning data is important:

"Lightning detection is like measuring a person's reflexes: The system can appear normal overall, but certain areas may show more signs of struggle than others. That's what happened in 2022. After back to back years of concerning low activity in 2021 and 2020, the total number of lightning strikes was closer to average. Still, pockets of the country showed record low or high activity in ways that left researchers surprised."

Lightning was below average in the Mississippi River basin. Which is bad, because that area receives about half its annual rainfall from thunderstorms.  It was the third consecutive year with below average lightning activity in that region. 

The Mississippi River fell to nearly record low levels in the autumn. Simply measuring rainfall is of course the obvious way to figure out whether you're in a drought. But lightning data can help show what type of rainfall was lacking. 

The dearth of lightning meant that the downpours usually associated with thunderstorms was lacking. Since torrential rains are more likely to flow into rivers, that provides more evidence as to why the Mississippi was so low.  

Other areas had a lot of lightning. 

Florida, due to its geography and climate gets zapped with tons of lightning strikes each year. However, 2022 was an especially busy year for lightning in Florida. They had 33 percent more lightning compared with the 2015-2021 average, says WaPo

Part of the problem was Hurricane Ian, that intense storm that caused $60 billion in damage. 

Hurricanes don't usually produce all that much lightning, but this one did. At its peak, it was producing lightning every three seconds in the hurricane's eyewall. 

The eyewall is a circle of especially intense winds surrounding the calm eye of a hurricane.  

Most of the extra lightning strikes across Florida, though, were just due to a busy summer thunderstorm season that was even more active than usual. 

Another state that saw an increase in lightning over previous years was Arizona. In mid to late summer, humid winds from the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean are drawn toward Arizona by low pressure created by summer heat.

That creates what is known as a monsoon season, in which thunderstorms frequently erupt in the Desert Southwest. Contrary to recent years, the Arizona monsoon season was more active than usual

Another very weird lightning hot spot was around Buffalo, New York during their epic Christmas lake effect blizzard. A good 1,0000 lightning strikes were detected during the blizzard over three and a half days, which is more lightning than anyone can recall in such a weather pattern.

Climate change is blamed for just about everything that goes wrong in the weather and elsewhere. However, so far at least, there are no discernible overall trends in lightning frequency in the United States because of climate change.

VERMONT LIGHTNING

Here in Vermont, we don't have a lot of lightning, compared to many other places east of the Rocky Mountains. 

Given the Green Mountain State's relatively small size and fairly low level of thunderstorm activity, we had the four least amount of lightning of all the states and the District of Columbia.

Vaisala detected 62,954 lightning strikes in Vermont during 2022. Only Rhode Island, Hawaii, and the District of Columbia had less lightning during the year. 

Overall, lightning activity during 2022 in Vermont was near or a little below average. In 2021 Vermont saw 71,264 lightning strikes.

Maybe a better way to measure how Vermont and other states rank is lightning density, which Vaisala defines as events per square kilometer. Measured that way, Vermont ranked 43rd in the nation in terms of lightning density. 

For fun, Vaisala nominates the lightning capitals of each state. It's where lightning was detected the most. In Vermont, this year's lightning capital was Danby. In 2021, Vermont's lightning capital was Ripton. So you see it's pretty random. 

Speaking of random, it's interesting that the highest lightning density in Vermont in 2021 was in central parts of the state, with less north and south. In 2022, it was just the opposite, with somewhat higher lightning density south and north, with lesser amounts in central Vermont.  

Viral Video Of Wind Turbine Burning After Lightning Strike Highlights Danger Of Wind Farm Storms

A burning turbine, still spinning
creates smoke rings in Texas after
it was struck by lightning. Image
from the viral video of the incident

 You might have seen the viral video of a burning wind turbine in Texas burning and spewing black smoke rings after being struck by lighting. If you haven't seen it, or want to see it again, it's at the bottom of this post. 

I suppose it's not surprising that wind turbines are susceptible to lightning strikes. They poke up high into the air, and are festooned with electronic equipment. Lightning can strike easily, and if it does, it can do a lot of damage. 

It's not surprising that a German study concluded that lightning strikes account for 80 percent of wind turbine insurance claims. 

The turbine in the viral video was struck in a Crowell, Texas wind farm in July.  A strong thunderstorm in the area was spitting out tons of lightning strikes, and one of those bolts hit the turbine. 

According to Fox Weather:

"Crews with the Crowell Volunteer Fire Department responded, but Fire Chief Perry Shaw said there was little his firefighters could do to put the fire out.

'We're not equipped to handle that kind of fire. Nobody in the area really is to speak of,' Shaw said. 

The fire chief estimated there were 800 gallons of oil in the gearbox and around 1,300 gallons of mineral oil in the ground level transformer, which caused the smoke to appear dark black in the sky."

Nobody was hurt, and the fire did not affect any other turbines in the wind farm, which has 139 windmills.

When I think of Texas I think of oil wells, among other things. However, Texas produces more power from wind than any other state. There's more than 13,000 turbines in the Lone Star State. 

The video is pretty fascinating. The smoke rings continue for awhile, with one arm of the turbine on fire and the whole thing still spinning. Then the whole turbine just kind of melts and falls apart. 

The video: Click on this link to view it, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Today's Vermont Severe Weather Threat, Explained

Though the highest threat for damaging, severe 
thunderstorms in in the orange zone, Vermont
is at risk for severe storms as well, 
mostly between 2 and 10 pm. today. 

UPDATE:  

is now in effect for all of Vermont through 8 pm. 

The expected main line of storms is still well to our west, but also as expected, storms are firing up in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains well ahead of this line. 

Some of these storms might become severe as well. 

A few of these storms are capable of turning into supercells, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, which could contain large hail and damaging winds.

Be weather aware folks. Storms will continue to roam the area for the rest of the afternoon and probably into the evening.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has kept Vermont in the low risk category for severe storms today, which is alert level two of five.

That means stay on your toes for scattered incidents of severe thunderstorms.  Most of us won't see a storm that meets severe criteria. But a few lucky devils will so we'll need to be on our toes.  

The rest of us ought to be on our toes, too, really.  Even if you don't have a storm that's officially "severe," a lot of storms today will have gusty winds, dangerous lightning and torrential downpours. 

The patches of dense fog were burning off as I write this, (later in the morning than usual due to an Xfinity outage). The sun will help destabilize the air ahead of a potent cold front coming from the west later today.

Vermont isn't really at the highest risk of severe weather of all the places in the Northeast. The bullseye seems to be from central New York down through eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and down into Maryland.

Those spots as of this writing have the highest chance of damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado. That doesn't mean we're out of the woods in Vermont, it just means the Green Mountain  State has a slightly lesser chance of being on the receiving end of nastiness. 

It looks like the main show for the Northeast will be a whomping squall line.  Up here in Vermont, that squall line might be just a tiny bit weaker. Here's why, according to the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

Well ahead of this squall line, thunderstorms should develop over the Green Mountains by early afternoon as the atmospheric instability grows. These storms could stabilize the air a little bit, so the squall line, when it gets here, might not have all the ingredients to make it super powerful.

That said, the squall line will have what is known as a negative tilt. That means it'll have a northwest to southeast orientation as it approaches us. It won't be a huge tilt, but it might add a little energy to this. 

It looks like the main line of storms will come in somewhere around 5 or 6 p.m in western Vermont, give or take, and be out of eastern Vermont by around 10 p.m. It's hard to say which parts of this squall line will be most intense around here. We won't know until it is approaching or over us

By the way, by far the biggest threat from these storms is straight line winds and localized flooding.  Still there's a very low, but not zero chance of a quick spin up tornado. Don't count on that, but it's within the realm of possibility. 

Although we had a long dry spell, pockets of Vermont had torrential downpours Saturday and Sunday. This is especially true around Rutland. That area received 1 to 3.5 inches of rain in an epic, isolated thunderstorm Saturday. 

Greensboro also picked up a little over two inches of rain Saturday. Some parts of northern Vermont and the Adirondacks also received some heavy downpours Sunday.

If especially heavy storms or several of them hit these wet areas in particular today, there could be some local flash floods. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has us in a risk zone for some pockets of excessive rain and flash flooding today. 

The cold front driving these big thunderstorms has some chilly air behind it. You'll really notice it tomorrow. 

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will barely make it to 60 degrees while lows reach the upper 30s and low 40s midweek. 

So, the bottom line for today: You're at risk of seeing a good boomer any time after about 1 p.m. Anything before late afternoon will be basically appetizers, hit and miss. But some of those early storms might pack a punch, so take 'em seriously. 

The main show is toward evening.  I'll update this as warranted. Basically, if you see a storm coming or receive a severe thunderstorm warning, just get your butt into a sturdy building.