Tuesday Was Even Snowier Than Expected, Winter Redux To End, But No Immediate Spring Warmth

A heavy snow shower shown here Tuesday afternoon
in St. Albans, Vermont flipped us right back to winter,
at least temporarily, 

 It wasn't just the morning burst of snow Tuesday that drove us nuts.

Turns out, it snowed pretty much all day for many of us in northern Vermont. And some of that snow came down really hard at times.  

Even here in fairly low elevation St. Albans, Vermont, we received just under three inches of snow. The 0.8 inches of snow we saw early in the morning largely melted by 1 p.m. But then some heavy snow showers swept through, dumping another two or so inches of snow.

I haven't seen a large number of reports of snow totals yet, but, East Brownington, Vermont and a high elevation spot in Underhill picked up 6.0 inches and 5.0 whitened Woodbury, Vermont.

It was partly the spring time sun that helped create the unexpectedly heavy and persistent snow showers Tuesday afternoon,

A pocket of very cold air aloft passed over Vermont Tuesday afternoon behind the cold front that produce the original burst of snow in the morning.

True, it was far from a warm day, but the contrast between the little bit of high angle sun getting through the clouds and that very frigid air aloft allowed clouds to grow taller and more able to dump some pretty substantial snow showers. 

I should have seen it coming.  Back on April 20-21 2021 we had an even more extreme example. On the 20th that year, a storm came by and dumped a few inches of snow. On April 21, 2021, the cold pool aloft that followed the storm helped create some of the most intense snow squalls I can remember.

That year, it quickly warmed up after the storm, reaching 70 degrees by April 24.

THIS YEAR

We're not going to get such a quick warmup this time. 

Temperatures will stay mostly in the 30s today, though there might be a few low 40s in southern valleys. That's ten to 15 degrees colder than average for this time of year. It will also ensure that not al the snow you might have on the ground will melt today.

Tonight should get down to the teens and low 20s, so again, pretty damn chilly for April. I wouldn't be surprised to see a reading near 10 above in the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. 

Don't worry, I'd say the vast majority if not all the early plants that might be coming up in your perennial garden will survive this. The very early stuff is tough as nails when it comes to cold weather. 

We're still looking at cloudy, damp and cool weather late week and into the weekend.  The rain Thursday and Friday might turn out to be a bit spotty and scattered, with perhaps a steadier rain Saturday. We'll have to wait and see how all that works out. 

It also might be cold enough for some snow in the higher elevations during the late week and weekend, but most of us should just see a chilly rain.  

Yes, it will stay cool, but not nearly as bad as yesterday and today. Highs should make it into the 40s to near 50 Thursday through Saturday. 

There is hope that we might have a couple days early next week in which the temperature flirts with 60 degrees before chillier air arrives again. 

Spring is proving to be a bit reluctant in Vermont this April.  

Not A Springlike Week In Vermont, But Much Better Than Winter! Month Will Still Average Out Warm

Daffodil shoots re-emerging from the snow in St. Albans
Vermont last Friday after the sun came out following morning 
snow.  This week in Vermont won't be particularly
springlike, either, but we've gotten to the point in the
season that we probably won't have to deal with
intense winter cold again until late November or December.

 It's going to be a seasonably chilly week in Vermont, but nothing unusual for the final eight days of the month. 

It will just feel cold because of the oddly warm March we've had so far. 

Sunday was the first notably colder than normal day we've had this month since March 3  Even so, it wasn't that far below normal and pretty routine for this time of year. 

Although we'll have to deal with some wintry-ish weather, particularly this morning, again, we should count our blessings. 

THIS MORNING'S SNOW

A warm front of sorts is coming from the southwest. We're still on the cold side of that front, of course, so snow is breaking out.

It won't be much, but as usual it seems, the timing is atrocious, right in time for the morning commute. Since it was chilly yesterday and last night, the snow won't melt right off the roads, either. 

So for a few of us, it is slow, slick drive to work or school this morning, unfortunately.  Only a little snow can make a mess.  The weather radar this morning looked worse than it really is, as dry air is evaporating some of the snow as it falls.

Some traffic cameras in central Vermont are showing a little snow on the roads. But many places were looking really good. So it looks like spotty trouble this morning for the rest of the commute but not a full-blown disaster on the roads. 

We're only expecting less than an inch in the Champlain Valley and one to two inches in a lot of other places. And that is probably too generous a forecast.as precipitation early this morning is much lighter and spottier than originally forecast

This little blip of snow will all taper off to scattered rain light rain showers this afternoon as we get up near 40 degrees.

REST OF THE WEEK

Tuesday through Friday look uneventful, so that's good. Temperatures will run slightly cooler than normal, but nothing out of the ordinary. (Mostly highs 35-45, lows in the 20s).  

It'll be unsettled with frequent chances of light rain or snow showers, but it won't amount to much at all

The next chance of a  larger storm comes next weekend, but the details are iffy at this point. So far, that weekend storm appears as it will be mostly rain. We'll keep an eye on it. 

IN PERSPECTIVE

With this week's seasonable weather, we won't come close to having our warmest March on record, despite readings in Burlington reaching the 70s three times before March 20.

The warmest March by far was in 2012 with an average temperature of 43.2.  That was the weird month in which Burlington hit the low 80s on three days in a row and was 76 degrees or above for five days in a row 

To be honest, I'm not even sure this March will make the list of top 10 warmest, but it might. We'll see.

This won't be a springlike week, but think about how far we've come from winter.  At least in the Champlain Valley and warmer spots around Vermont, it's now too late in the season for it to get below zero. (All bets are off in the Northeast Kingdom, though).

There's a chance that we might not have any more subfreezing high temperatures in the Champlain Valley until next winter.  Although we have been known to see a few high temperatures at or below 32 degrees as late as the third week in April.

We could always get a big snowstorm well into April, so we're not necessarily done with that type of thing. Just last year, many of us had a foot or so of wet snow on April 4.   But, if it does snow like that, it always melts away within a few days at most.

After catching up to near normal after some snowstorms in February, the season's snowfall, at least as measured in Burlington is well below average again.  It has barely snowed this month, with just 3.3 inches so far in March, plus whatever we get today. 

Snowfall for the season so far in Burlington is 67.7 inches, or about a foot below what we should have had by now. 

I still don't see any more 70 degree afternoons in the forecast for awhile.  But don't worry, that will return soon enough as we inevitably get warmer and warmer as we head through the spring and toward summer. 

Before you know it, you'll be whining that it's too hot and humid. 

  

New Snow Might Keep Us Refrigerated All Week, Even After Intense Weekend Cold Departs

Steam and warmth from Lake Champlain was still
creation clouds over the lake near Burlington this
morning, as this hazecam.net screen grab shows,
but the lake effect snows of yesterday are over. 

Yes, yes, I know, it's nasty cold out there in Vermont and surrounding areas. 

Jackson the Weather dog here in St. Albans really cut short his early morning observations when we went out before dawn today.

  He's not into this type of chill at all. Can't say I blame the little guy. 

Low temperatures this morning were pretty uniform statewide in Vermont this morning.  That tends to happen when there's a steady winds. 

 Burlington was the banana belt town as usual, dipping down to 5 degrees this morning.  Everyone else was pretty much between 5 below and 2 above, even in the valleys of far southern Vermont. 

Wind chills this morning were mostly in the teens below zero.  You'll really want to dress for the weather today, as most of us won't even make it to 10 above, and the north wind will continue to blow steadily. Don't be fooled by the sun when it comes out. The low angle light won't help with the chill at all. 

Yesterday's lake effect snows in the Champlain Valley might well contribute to the end of Burlington's longest continuous stretch of above zero temperatures. Today was the 663rd day in a row that was above zero, as measured at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

Usually, the Champlain Valley receives the least snow in any given winter storm. This time, they got the most, thanks to that lake effect snow Saturday. 

Six inches of snow covered Shelburne, Vermont. In a rare feat, The National Weather Service office in South Burlington was the snowfall winner, with a storm total of 6.3 inches.  

Because the snow cover around Burlington is deeper than what had been forecast, that improves the chances that the record long stretch of temperatures continuously above zero will end.

Deeper snow tends to encourage lower temperatures on clear, calm winter nights. Monday morning could well end the long, long streak of continuously above zero temperatures. 

But it's not a slam dunk.  If any clouds move in off Lake Champlain, or the wind stirs a bit at just the right time, it'll stay above zero in Burlington. The current forecast for Monday morning's low is 1 above. But it honestly could end up at up to five degrees either side of that figure. 

If you're away from the lake, it's pretty much guaranteed you'll be below zero early tomorrow morning.  temperatures will vary early Monday much more than they did this morning. The cold hollows could make it into the mid and upper teens below zero.

CHILLIER OUTLOOK

It's not going to warm up as much or as fast during the upcoming week as originally thought. A quick Alberta Clipper will probably sneak through real quick Monday night and Tuesday, throwing a couple more inches of snow our way. 

Meanwhile, the high pressure that's bringing our weekend nasty chill will park itself over southeastern Quebec much of the week. The air mass will modify, so that temperatures will become seasonable and comfortable - highs in the 20s to low 30s.

But since there won't be much in the way of south winds, and the snow cover will help chill the air near the ground, there won't be any wholesale warmup at least until the end of the week. 

However, it could warm up a lot toward the New Year.  A strange weather pattern is setting up that will roast most of North America, relatively speaking, in oddly balmy air for winter. I'll get into that in an upcoming post. 

UPDATE: First Mention Of Snow Of The Season In Vermont Forecast

A classic "snowliage" photo I took in October, 2022 that
I've put out here a few times. It's inspiration for an
a potential good chance for you to take similar photos
Thursday. Light snow is in the forecast for the
Green Mountain summits overnight Wednesday. 

 Skies in parts of Vermont Sunday evening were pretty interesting. 

Some people reported catching glimpses of the northern lights before clouds moved in during the evening. 

Expected northern lights never really materialized Saturday night, so they tried to put on a brief show Sunday. So that was a treat!

The aurora Sunday was quickly pre-empted by lightning flashes to the west. Severe thunderstorms had broken out in western New York due to a pretty potent weather disturbance and cold front. 

Those storms weakened on approach to Vermont, but still produced some lightning toward western areas before petering out into just showers. 

Those storms last night heralded the long expected shift to cooler autumn weather. 

With that, we'll see those chilly temperatures, scattered showers and...... it does indeed look like we will see a bit of mountain snow Wednesday night and early Thursday. 

Snow on mountain summits is not the least bit unusual once we get into October. But this autumn has been so warm it's a bit of a shock to the system. 

A disturbance riding around the dip of the jet stream will bring those light showers and colder temperatures to the region. The National Weather Service in South Burlington has mentioned snow in the forecast for the first time this autumn. 

As the chillier air filters in Wednesday night, it will start snowing on the mountain peaks. There won't be much accumulation on the summits, maybe an inch, two if things really get out of hand. In northern Vermont, elevations as low as 1,500 feet above sea level might see a few wet snowflakes mix in with the rain drops early Thursday. 

So no, this won't exactly be an icy commuter nightmare Thursday morning. But it is a reminder to get your snow tires ready.  It's coming folks! 

Vermont Skies Go From Gorgeous To Glum. New Brand Of Gorgeous Coming, Then HOT??

A gloomy evening in St. Albans, Vermont. A pause in the
color in the gardens this time of year prevented much
in the way of color to break up the blah, but very
green landscape after all the rain we've had. 

Those spectacular, dramatic scattered thunderstorm skies from Sunday transitioned to a dull boring overcast Monday, fitting for the first day of the work week. 

That pesky e upper level low - the cold pool of air over New England and southeastern Canada -  continues to overstay its welcome.

It's moved on to the northeast of us by Monday, putting us  on the west side of this thing. That position tends to put us in a dull overcast instead of the roiling clouds with dark and white shades and shafts of sunlight and blue sky.

So yeah, it was chilly, compared to what we're used to. Highs only made it into the upper 50s to low 60s, except a little warmer in southeast Vermont where a little sun broke through. 

I checked, and we were far from any records for coldest daytime highs for June 10.  

On June 10, 1972, the high temperature in Burlington made it only to a remarkably nippy high of 48 degrees.  November in June that year must have been incredibly depressing. 

Monday's weather did kind of put me in a strange autumnal mood. The gardens are still ramping up for the season. so I'm normally frantically trying to build up and maintain all those plants.

Under the dark overcast Monday evening, I almost felt like I should start fall cleanup. That mood won't last, as we'll get right back into late spring, and then summer in short order.  

GLOOM TO GORGEOUS TO HOT?

It'll be a slow process at first, but our now-annoying upper level low is slowly drifting away and decaying. 

The rain is largely over, aside from a chance of some light showers over the mountains. Some places, especially in northern Vermont had more than their share of rain in recent days. Through yesterday morning about four inches of rain fell in four days at my place in St. Albans. 

Today will be better than Monday, though there still should be quite a few clouds around. At least we'll have some brighter intervals this afternoon so temperatures should get into the 65 to 72 degree range. Still cool for mid-June but nothing all that weird. 

It gets better tomorrow, as more sunshine boosts temperatures well into the 70s, maybe near 80. The sky won't feature the dramatic clouds we saw Sunday, but it should be gorgeous nonetheless. 

The overall weather pattern is still showing strong signs of becoming a hot one. 

The first attempt at oppressive heat will kind of get cut off at the pass. A surge of warm, humid air will start to come in Thursday, bringing temperatures into the 80s. 

A cold front by Friday will cut that short. It's unclear how many showers will come along with that. That cold front will bring in a fresh Canadian high pressure system with comfortable air and sunshine for the weekend. 

Things could still change, but all signs are pointing toward very humid and hot weather next week. We could get a few days reaching the 90s. Humidity will be stifling, too. 

Not sure yet if we'll be on the edge of this heat wave or in the midst of it. If we're on the edge, we can expect a fair number of thunderstorms next week, too. If not, just hot and humid with not much in the way of rain. Stay tuned on that one!

 

Monday Snow Falling Far North And West; Most Of Vermont In A Cold Shivery Rain

 The fairly weak but soggy storm system sliding by to our south is giving us a very miserable Monday morning as expected.  

Vermont Agency of Transportation traffic cam shows
snow falling along Route 114 in Canaan, which is at
the extreme northeast tip of Vermont. Snow is widespread
in southern Quebec this morning but so far
it's been almost all rain in Vermont, as expected.

Most of us in Vermont were near 40 degrees as of 8 a.m. and a steady rain was falling. For those of you looking for snow, so far it's been just north of the Canadian border, and in northwestern New York, 

As of 8 a.m., it was snowing in Montreal, Quebec City, Ottawa and Massena, New York.  The storm flung a bit of slightly warmer air aloft over most of Vermont and New Hampshire, so it's been almost all rain so far. 

You can tell that "warmer" air is lurking above by mountain reports. It was only 25 degrees atop Mount Washington, New Hampshire, but they were getting freezing rain, not snow. 

As the storm moves east, some of the colder air aloft on its northwestern flank might manage to bleed south some. That means the northern Green Mountains and perhaps even lower elevations in the north, including maybe the Champlain Valley could see some snowflakes before the precipitation tapers off by early afternoon.

I did notice a Vermont Agency of Transportation traffic camera this morning along Route 114 in Canaan, Vermont shows snowfall with a slushy coating on the road. Canaan is in the extreme Northeast Kingdom, right where Vermont, New Hampshire and Quebec meet. 

The rain has pushed October to become the seventh wettest in Burlington as of 8 a.m. today. If the city gets just 0.13 inches more, it will be third wettest. It will also be among the top ten warmest Octobers.

FREEZE, FINALLY

If for some reason you haven't brought in plants from outdoors you want to save, now's the time. The weather pattern has changed. I'm impressed by the huge area of freeze warnings the nation is under right now.

We brought our hibiscus indoors a couple weeks ago.
The warmer indoor air encouraged an explosion of
blooms, but some yellow leaves, as we get every
autumn as it doesn't like being indoors as much.
If you still have any sensitive plants outdoors, go
out in the rain and get 'em in now. Freeze tonight.

The freeze warnings extend from Arizona to Pennsylvania and southern Wisconsin to northern Mississippi. 

We won't be under a freeze warning here in Vermont, because the growing season is normally thought to be long past.  

But we are going to see our first, very belated freeze of the season tonight. Some parts of Vermont will have their latest first autumn freeze on record tonight.

Even in the Champlain Valley.  So empty those hoses if you still have them outdoors and bring them in.  

We brought our hibiscus, orange tree and geraniums in about a week and a half ago, figuring we'd have to do it sometime. But if you have stuff like that on your deck. rush 'em into the house. 

We finally have to button up for winter.  Not that hard core winter is going to hit quite yet.

COOL, BUT BENIGN

At least for now, we get a reprieve from the forces of winter. This week will be on the cool side, but trending milder to become close to normal by the end of the week and the weekend. There will be no big storms.  It'll often be cloudy, and we have the risk of a sprinkle or flurry here or there, but nothing major he season 

"Coldest" Morning Of The Vermont So Far Was Right About Normal, Actually

Wednesday was a candidate for the most perfect weather
day of the year in Vermont.  Trees aren't really turning
color yet, but the recent turn to more seasonable
temperatures might encourage some foliage in the coming days.

 This morning in Burlington, Vermont, the temperature went down to 47 degrees, the first time it was under 50 degrees since June 4.  

As far as I can determine, this looks like it might be the second longest period continuously above 50 degrees on record. This year it was 108 such days. In 2021, it was 110 days. 

This also  had to be one  of the latest or possibly even the latest first 50 of the autumn on record.  After all, it has been below freezing this time of year in Burlington, according to past weather records. 

All this is to say, it might have felt chilly this morning, but temperatures were actually very close to normal for the days around the Autumn Equinox. 

Morning lows in the warmer valleys of Vermont are usually within a few degrees of 50 degrees this time of year. Away from Lake Champlain, lows this time of year are generally in the 40s, which is right where most people were at dawn today 

The perennial cold spot, Saranac Lake, New York was down to 31 degrees today, but for them, that's totally par for the course in mid-September. The cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom were in the upper 30s, but again, yawn. 

This of course, is what we've been waiting for in oddly humid June, July, August and early September. Tuesday was about as perfect a day as you could get: Deep blue skies dotted with just a few clouds, perfectly comfortable temperatures and a pleasant light breeze. It was a strong candidate for nicest day of 2023.

The good news is, the weather looks like it will stay almost as nice as Tuesday, with of course a few hiccups and caveats. 

Today will be another nice one.  We're back to having wildfire smoke in the atmosphere due to those ongoing Canadian fires. So the sky won't be as nice a deep blue as yesterday. It will have a disappointing haze to it. The smoke is aloft, so we don't really have to worry about air quality. 

Right now there's a weird storm forming off the east coast of Florida. Looks like it will be some sort of odd hybrid between a regular storm and a tropical storm. 

The effects on the ground won't matter either way. Things should get nasty in North Carolina and Virginia by Friday night, with gusty winds, storm surges and torrential rains. 

The question is how far this thing will move north.   Early signs suggest it might get shoved off to our south by strong high pressure building strength in Quebec, but there's no guarantees.   

Initial guesses are that rain might spread into southern Vermont over the weekend, but might not make it much further north than that. But nobody knows for sure. No flooding concerns with this one, though.

This silly storm could spread high clouds across Vermont like Lee did last Friday, which could give us another round of great sunsets. Especially with a little wildfire smoke in the upper atmosphere. 

It's A Chilly September Day, Could Be Worse. Also, Tropical Trouble Update

Golden evening light and dark clouds behind a sharp
autumn cold front Thursday in St. Albans, Vermont. 

 As expected, it's chilly today, probably the coldest Vermont day we've seen since the end of April. 

Of course, that's not to say the cool breezes, the morning clouds, the risk of mountain top snow flurries and the chances of pockets of frost tonight are unusual.  

I actually did see video of it snowing in Lake Placid, New York this morning. All this is par for the course for late September. 

Maybe less so than in the past, but still, we're blasting through autumn, heading for winter. 

Under the climate change "new normal" we're currently in, this month looks like it's going to work out to something you should expect in September in our now- altered world.  It'll be a contrast to recent record hot Septembers, so I guess you can enjoy the fact you haven't roasted this month. 

However, by historical standards, this September would definitely be warmer than what would have been expected. 

Cool snaps like we're having now, or even near record cold will will continue to happen in September once in awhile. But over the years, they'll gradually become less frequent, or not as chilly as the weather we're having now. 

As recently as the 1960s and 1970s, frost was pretty common even in the Champlain Valley in late September. The record lows in Burlington this week are pretty much all in the mid to upper 20s. 

You can feel the chill in the air just looking at this 
photo in St. Albans, Vermont Thursday after a 
sharp autumn cold front passed through. 

So it could be worse.

As for frost, the best chances of tonight are over the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. 

You'd think the Northeast Kingdom would be under the gun for frost, and it will be close up there. But the wind should continue to blow from the northwest overnight. 

The strongest winds will be east of the Green Mountains. Nothing scary, just a breeze, really.  

That potentially frost-preventing breeze tonight in the Northeast Kingdom has everything to do with Hurricane Fiona

HURRICANE FIONA

Rare hurricane warnings are up in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and parts of Newfoundland, Canada.

Environment Canada is telling residents of these areas to be prepared for winds exceeding 100 mph in some spots, with the risk of structural damage. Serious flooding, storm surge, coastal erosion are all in play as Fiona races northward toward Canada tonight and into tomorrow. 

One good way to measure a storm's strength is to look at how low the air pressure is at the storm's center.  Fiona has the potential to be the strongest storm in history to  hit anywhere in Canada, if you measure by central air pressure. Some forecasts have Fiona's air pressure at 930 millibars when it makes landfall in eastern Nova Scotia tomorrow\. The record strongest storm in Canada had a central air pressure of 940 millibars.

Fiona, as it heads north, will be gradually turning from a tropical system to a non-tropical low. Which means it will expand in size to engulf a large area.  High wind warnings extend as far west as Down East Maine. 

THE NEXT ONE

A tropical depression  has formed in the Central Caribbean Sea, as expected. This is one to watch, because there's a high chance it will eventually turn into a hurricane. It also has a strong chance of eventually hitting the United States.

We just don't know where yet.  If it does hit the U.S., the best I can narrow it down to is anywhere between Houston and Florida. Or possibly the Southeastern U.S.  As the storm develops, forecasters will begin to be able to narrow down the risk zone. 

A Rather Wild May Weather Month Continuing In Vermont, Elsewhere Too

On this cool, cloudy morning, the progression of spring
continues in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens. The
daffodils have faded away, and now the irises and 
peonies are budding, preparing for their show. 

After a stunningly gorgeous, perfect spring day on Wednesday in Vermont, we're back to the roller coaster ride of changeable weather.  It's a pattern that's affecting much of the nation. In some places much more dramatically than here in New England. 

We'll start with the local stuff first. Today will certainly not be as brilliant as Wednesday as a fast moving weather disturbance zips through.  

We're starting off cool today. There's even a little frost in the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom. With the clouds with this weather disturbance now in place, temperatures won't be able to rise much today. Especially as the rain moves in.  

Most of us will stay in the 50s, which is more than 10 degrees on the cool side. This relative chill is not that odd for this time of year. (The record lowest "high" temperature on this date in Burlington is 43 degrees in 1976).

Rainfall will only amount to a quarter inch today, give or take.  There might be some embedded heavier showers or even a rumble of thunder which would create locally higher amounts of rain. But we'll fall far, far short of any flooding concerns. It's just a little water for the gardens so that you won't have to drag the hoses to the raised beds today. 

The weather variety show continues on Friday as things turn dramatically different again. Winds will turn gusty from the south, especially in the Champlain Valley. By Friday afternoon, instead of 10 degrees cooler than normal, we'll be ten degrees above normal - near 80 degrees. 

Another couple of acts arrive for our variety show on Saturday. It will be a sultry summer day, with highs in 85 to 90 degree range. It will be humid. 

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington points out, some ingredients for strong storms will be in place by later Saturday afternoon, but there won't be much in the way to trigger much of anything.

When forecasting thunderstorms, one of many things meteorologists look at is CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy.  This is all a way to determine instability in the atmosphere and the strength of updrafts. The higher the CAPE value the higher the risk of thunderstorms, some strong to severe.

Here in Vermont, if you see CAPE values above 2,000 joules per kilogram (J/kg) we have ingredients for bopping boomers for sure.  CAPE values Saturday afternoon or evening are expected to be in the 2,500 to 3,000 J/kg range.

But CAPE is just one ingredient. You need multiple ingredients, not just flour, to make a cake. Likewise, numerous ingredients need to come together to create a tasty thunderstorm. 

It's unusual to see northern New England and Near
York highlighted in the Storm Prediction Center's
four day outlook, but there we are! 

On Saturday, just to make things confusing, a cap will be fighting the CAPE.  A cap is a warm layer in the atmosphere that stops those CAPE updrafts in their tracks, preventing thunderstorms from developing. 

Sometimes updrafts can break through a cap. There's a chance that could happen in a couple places in Vermont toward the end of the day Saturday. 

If that happens,  a couple strong thunderstorms could abruptly develop.  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the northern half of Vermont in a marginal risk zone (level 1 of 5 risk category) for severe storms Saturday for this reason. 

More interestingly the Storm Prediction Center Day 4 outlook for Sunday has us in a risk zone for severe storms. Usually, when the SPC is bullish on severe storms that far in advance, you really want to pay attention.

Still, everything has to come together just right for this to happen. Sunday could be an active day, or it could be a bust. It's just something to watch for now.  

The variety show continues after Sunday when the hot, humid air is replaced by the kind of weather we had yesterday. A springtime beauty curtain call, if you will. 

COLORADO VARIETY PACK

If you really want variety, go to Colorado. In some parts of that state, they were under a severe thunderstorm watch last evening, and find themselves this morning simultaneously under fire alerts and a winter storm watch. 

Hot, dry winds today will increase the risk of wildfires in Colorado and most of the rest of the Southwest today. 

A developing storm will pull cold air into the high country of the Rockies. Highs today around Denver will be in the upper 80s but only in the upper 40s and falling through the day Friday. Two to six inches of snow are likely in much of the Denver and Boulder metro areas. With leaves on the trees, this situation might cause a lot of damage as the weight of the snow on leaves snaps branches and power lines. 

The mountains could see a foot or more of snow.

Meanwhile, parts of Iowa and Wisconsin are bracing for tornadoes today, one or two of which might be quite strong. And North Dakota is flooding again. 

I guess Vermont's weather variety show isn't as scary as that in other parts of the nation. 

Vermont Storms Caused Scattered Damage; New Damage Coming From Frost?

A big, tall thunderstorm looms over Vermont Wednesday,
as viewed from Colchester.  Severe, damaging storms
struck parts of central and Northeast Vermont.

 The thunderstorms and pockets of severe weather pretty much worked out as expected on Wednesday. 

Most of us got either a mild thunderstorm or in a few cases, got nothing at all. 

It seems like the main, worst thunderstorm trekked from Addison County to the Northeast Kingdom near Danville and Peacham in the afternoon and early evening.

Basically, it was a bowing segment that was the culprit, and this type of storm often leads to damage.  

A bowing segment is a relatively short line of storms, shaped like a backwards "C".  The apex of that "C" s where the strongest winds are.  Yesterday, that was on a line from around Middlebury to Danville.

The whole Northeast shared in the severe weather. And the Central Great Plains were busy. Overall, there were 28 reports of tornadoes yesterday, mostly in Kansas, Nebraska and Texas. There were a whopping 381 wind damage reports, mostly in the Northeast, including here in Vermont. 

Trees were down in many parts of Middlebury, then a few more reports of tree damage around Waitsfield. This was followed by quite a few power outages in and around Barre. Then a trail of new scattered damage was reported along Route 2 from Marshfield to Danville.  

Several thousand homes and businesses also lost power along this path. 

Only a few lucky people got some decent rains, which we still need. Those in the path of the severe thunderstorm got more than a half inch of rain. Most of the rest of us got a tenth of an inch of rain or less.

Northern areas of Vermont look to get almost no rain for the next week, unless some storminess to our south pulls some surprises.  

CHILLY: FROSTY AND SNOWY?

Up next, though, we're temporarily going back in time to April. That means the risk of a late season frost, a cold rain in southern Vermont and yes, the dirty four-letter word is back: Maybe some snow in the highest elevations. 

After a few morning sprinkles, it will clear up rapidly today, and be breezy and cool.  That sets us up for the frost risk tonight. 

It'll be a race between cold air coming in from the north and high clouds coming in from the southwest. If the clouds come in more quickly than expected, most of us, except those in the Northeast Kingdom, will escape the frost. If the clouds stay away, many more of us will worry about a frost and freeze.

I'd play it safe tonight anywhere in Vermont except right near Lake Champlain.  Cover those tender annuals you just planted, or if possible, bring them indoors.  If you already planted your tomatoes outside, well it sucks for you. Cover those up, too, and hope for the best. 

Tomorrow, Friday, will be remarkably raw for the end of May.  Highs everywhere will only make it into the 50s.  Northern areas might be warmest as they could see a little sun.  Southern areas of Vermont will cloud right up and temperatures will stay in the low 50s. Some mid and high elevations there won't even make it out of the 40s for highs. Brrrr!

There's a lot of questions about how far north the rain will get Friday and Friday night.  Most forecasts keep the far north dry, but even there, there's a slight chance of sprinkles or light rain.  South of Route 4, there could be a good half inch of rain, which would be good for them. 

Bad for them will be the mountains. There could be some snow at least on the mountain peaks Friday night.

Saturday looks chilly,  too, with southern Vermont being the coolest.   Some clearing is expected to break out Saturday afternoon in the north, and the strong May sun would "heat" those areas into the low 60s, which is still quite chilly for this time of  year. Southern areas might stay in the 50s.

We'll also have to watch for scattered night time frost again in the north, too.

Don't worry. This throwback to early spring won't last forever.   A warming trend will start Sunday and continue well into next week.  Long range forecasts  call for above normal temperatures through the first 10 days or so of June