It's A Chilly September Day, Could Be Worse. Also, Tropical Trouble Update

Golden evening light and dark clouds behind a sharp
autumn cold front Thursday in St. Albans, Vermont. 

 As expected, it's chilly today, probably the coldest Vermont day we've seen since the end of April. 

Of course, that's not to say the cool breezes, the morning clouds, the risk of mountain top snow flurries and the chances of pockets of frost tonight are unusual.  

I actually did see video of it snowing in Lake Placid, New York this morning. All this is par for the course for late September. 

Maybe less so than in the past, but still, we're blasting through autumn, heading for winter. 

Under the climate change "new normal" we're currently in, this month looks like it's going to work out to something you should expect in September in our now- altered world.  It'll be a contrast to recent record hot Septembers, so I guess you can enjoy the fact you haven't roasted this month. 

However, by historical standards, this September would definitely be warmer than what would have been expected. 

Cool snaps like we're having now, or even near record cold will will continue to happen in September once in awhile. But over the years, they'll gradually become less frequent, or not as chilly as the weather we're having now. 

As recently as the 1960s and 1970s, frost was pretty common even in the Champlain Valley in late September. The record lows in Burlington this week are pretty much all in the mid to upper 20s. 

You can feel the chill in the air just looking at this 
photo in St. Albans, Vermont Thursday after a 
sharp autumn cold front passed through. 

So it could be worse.

As for frost, the best chances of tonight are over the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. 

You'd think the Northeast Kingdom would be under the gun for frost, and it will be close up there. But the wind should continue to blow from the northwest overnight. 

The strongest winds will be east of the Green Mountains. Nothing scary, just a breeze, really.  

That potentially frost-preventing breeze tonight in the Northeast Kingdom has everything to do with Hurricane Fiona

HURRICANE FIONA

Rare hurricane warnings are up in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and parts of Newfoundland, Canada.

Environment Canada is telling residents of these areas to be prepared for winds exceeding 100 mph in some spots, with the risk of structural damage. Serious flooding, storm surge, coastal erosion are all in play as Fiona races northward toward Canada tonight and into tomorrow. 

One good way to measure a storm's strength is to look at how low the air pressure is at the storm's center.  Fiona has the potential to be the strongest storm in history to  hit anywhere in Canada, if you measure by central air pressure. Some forecasts have Fiona's air pressure at 930 millibars when it makes landfall in eastern Nova Scotia tomorrow\. The record strongest storm in Canada had a central air pressure of 940 millibars.

Fiona, as it heads north, will be gradually turning from a tropical system to a non-tropical low. Which means it will expand in size to engulf a large area.  High wind warnings extend as far west as Down East Maine. 

THE NEXT ONE

A tropical depression  has formed in the Central Caribbean Sea, as expected. This is one to watch, because there's a high chance it will eventually turn into a hurricane. It also has a strong chance of eventually hitting the United States.

We just don't know where yet.  If it does hit the U.S., the best I can narrow it down to is anywhere between Houston and Florida. Or possibly the Southeastern U.S.  As the storm develops, forecasters will begin to be able to narrow down the risk zone.