Yeah, Despite Appearances, It's Fall, So I Saw A Five Letter "F" Word

A warm, summer-like sunset Saturday in St. Albans, Vermont
Sorry about the telephone pole, I couldn't get a good
angle to avoid the damn thing. 

Amid the warmth of a summery September Saturday evening, I almost choked on a word a South Burlington National Weather Service meteorologist dared to write.  

That word was "frost."

Before you panic, what they were saying is there is the risk of frost late in the upcoming week, but only in the coldest hollows of Vermont and surrounding areas. The vast majority of us have nothing to worry about. 

At least not yet. 

The fact is, starting about now, at least historically, it can frost and freeze anywhere in Vermont about now, except along the immediate shores of Lake Champlain.

However, Vermont Septembers over the past decade or two have been warmer than in the past, thanks to climate change. Summer lasts longer than they used to, but the inevitable cooler weather of autumn still arrives this month. 

Actually, so far this month, Burlington's temperature has been close to normal. But this is the new normal. It's based on the average temperatures over the past 30 years. But that 30 years encompasses the start of the real effects of climate change. 

Prior to say, 1990, this September so far would be regarded as on the warm side. 

Overall, except for a brief period late this week, the trend of warm Septembers will continue this year.

On Saturday, the high temperature in Burlington was 85 degrees. Certainly not record warmth, but still warmer than even the "new" normal. 

No guarantees, but Saturday might well end up as the warmest day until next spring. I hope you enjoyed it. 

It'll still be at least warmish at least into Tuesday, but not as toasty as it was Saturday.  Clouds tend to keep temperatures down a bit. 

A slow moving storm system was starting to throw high clouds into Vermont Saturday evening. The clouds will thicken up on today, and there might even be a sprinkle or two. But some sun will break through as well, and it will be warm for September. Plan on upper 70s to near 80.

After a warm, and vaguely humid Sunday night, it's more of the same on Monday as that storm system slowly creeps towards us. At this point it looks largely cloudy on Monday, with a low chance of showers, and it'll still be warm.

Tuesday will be our rainy day, and we still need it. Not sure where the heaviest rain will set up, but current forecasts favor northern Vermont. Up to an inch of rain could come down, which would be nice.  

The storm will propel a couple of cold fronts through here, and by Thursday, you'll know it's autumn, at least temporarily. 

It'll be blustery, partly cloudy, maybe mostly cloudy, and we'll be lucky to get out of the mid 60s. Thursday night is when that "F" word comes into play.

We'll see a typical autumn scenario. Skies will clear Thursday evening, winds will slacken, and temperatures will drop. Pretty much all of us will get down into the 40s. Some of the relatively cooler places could see upper 30s, but no frost. But the cold hollows are indeed under the gun. 

This won't be an unusual cold spell by September standards. But we've gotten so used to a never ending summer, that it might come as a shock. 

Cheer up, though, if you're not ready for this. It looks like this will be a quick shot of chilly air, and we'll bounce back up above normal after a couple days. 

We'll have very few days that feel purely like summer until, well, next summer. But it does look like we're not completely done with beach weather yet.