Storms, Downpours To Keep Tuesday Exciting In Vermont

Forecast rainfall today from the National Weather Service
office in South Burlington. Many areas can expect over
an inch of rain in a short period of time. 

 It still looks like we're in for a dramatic few hours in Vermont today with potentially strong to severe thunderstorms, torrential downpours and perhaps some local flash floods. 

A dynamic storm system is still slated to plow through today, and the ingredients have come together for that relatively exciting weather. 

An initial band of rain, with some embedded thunder has come through this morning, but that's no big deal, really. 

Interestingly, there are some breaks in the clouds behind this initial band, which could raise the stakes for the weather this afternoon. 

Already, the atmosphere is aligned for some stormy weather. There's lift in the atmosphere. And winds aloft are forecast to increase as a cold front approaches. Any added sun ahead of the expected cold front and storms would make things even more unstable. 

This isn't to say everyone is going to get totally blasted. It's the usual thing where some people get hit hard, others escape with practically nothing.  At this point, the best chances of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds would be in southern Vermont. I'd say that's especially true in the Champlain Valley and southwestern Vermont from about Vergennes south. 

Since this system has some decent spin, there's once again a very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief spin-up tornado.  But if there are any damaging storms today, the greatest risk is from intense straight line winds. 

Although I outlined the area that I think are under the greatest risk of storms, there is a chance of damaging thunderstorm winds anywhere in Vermont this afternoon and evening. 

Much of southern New England and the Hudson Valley of New York is also in the best position to see a severe storm. 

The other piece of today's excitement is the rainfall. You've probably already noticed this morning it's awfully humid out there for mid-September. That moisture will continue to stream in. The air is becoming about as moist as it possibly can.

With the nice lift in the atmosphere, and the air cooling way high above us this afternoon, that will really encourage that wetness in the air to condense into a lot of rain. The National Weather Service in South Burlington has actually increased the amount of rain they expect today.

Many areas can expect an inch of rain. People who really get hit by downpours could receive two inches. Remember, most of this rain will come in very short periods of time during thunderstorms. 

Even though it has been dry, this amount of rain in a short period of time could set off some pockets of flash flooding. This won't be particularly widespread, but street flooding, minor washouts and high water on a few small streams is possible.   

The amount of rain people get will be super variable, with some towns getting that previously mentioned two inches of rain, and a few places missing out with just maybe a half inch. 

Still, the rain will cause more good than bad. At least for most of us. We do need it. 

Today's excitement will quickly wane this evening. It'll be cooler and drier tomorrow. As a second cold front comes through Wednesday, we'll transition to that chilly autumn weather that we've been talking about for Thursday and Friday. 

Bottom line: Today's a lousy day for a hike, a golf outing or an excursion on a boat. Keep an eye to the sky, and if you see dark clouds or hear a severe thunderstorm warning or advisory, get your butt into a good sturdy building and wait it out. 

Also remember not to drive through flooded roads. You don't know how deep the water is, or whether any of the road has been washed out.