Wet Vermont, The Hurricanes Continue, Including A Nasty Philippines Surprise

Sunflowers do their best to brighten a fading autumn
garden on a damp Monday morning in St. Albans, Vermont.

Good Monday to all!

Given the weather pattern, we'll stick with the format we had yesterday, to update a somewhat soggy Vermont, since it's our home state, then move on to hurricanes. 

Spoiler: Vermont's weather will continue to be much, much tamer than in all those hurricane zones. 

But you knew that already.   So on to the damp details.  

Rain moved in a little ahead of schedule in Vermont Sunday afternoon. That's OK. Even though it's been quite wet this month,  rain is still needed. Ground water in much of the state has not fully recovered from a dry summer. 

Yesterday's rains brought the month's precipitation total in Burlington to 6.14 inches. We're now at the 8th wettest September on record. We might move a little higher in the rankings this week, as some more rain is due. Nothing extreme, but precipitation chances are pretty high early this week. 

Unfortunately, once again, the northwest corner of Vermont is generally expected the most rain, with more than a half inch through Wednesday. This part of the state doesn't really need the rain that much. Meanwhile, the southeastern part of Vermont, which really does need more wetting is expected to get the least -barely a quarter inch, if that. 

We have a little break in the action this morning, with nothing more than scattered, light showers. And the sun might even break through the clouds in some spots at times, imagine that!

But another round of showers comes through this afternoon.  We might even have enough instability in the air to trigger a few thunderstorms in the mix.   

A pocket of chilly air will hover thousands of feet above us, which will contribute to instability. Any sun this morning might add a little more. So, there'a chance that a couple storms might contain some strong gusty winds and small hail. 

Most of us will escape that, but NOAA's Storm Prediction Center does have most of Vermont in a marginal risk zone for severe storms. 

Tomorrow will only bring a chance of scattered showers. They'll be more numerous on Wednesday, but again, nothing too heavy. Another spoiler:  No guarantees yet, but chances are increasing that the remnants of Hurricane Ian, after it moves ashore later this week, will get shunted out to sea to our south, so at this point the storm won't affect Vermont much, if at all. 

So let's talk about Ian, as it's the big news of the day

HURRICANE IAN

Hurricane Ian south of Cuba this morning, with
its expected target Florida further north. 

It was fascinating, if a little horrifying to watch Ian on satellite images on Sunday. In the morning, it was weak, but it had taken on that "look."  The storm had become symmetrical, and it took on the look of a hurricane, even though the storms swirling around the center seemed weak.

At first, anyway. Ian is now undergoing a rapid intensification. It was up to 75 mph this morning, a Category 1 storm. By the time Ian reaches western Cuba early Tuesday morning, it's expected to be a 130 mph powerhouse. 

Computer models remain stubbornly divided on the path of Ian after Cuba.  Florida is under the gun, but will it be an area on the west coast of the state near or a little north of Tampa? Or will it hit the panhandle, up by Pensacola or Panama City?

By the time Ian gets up to a spot off or near the west coast of Florida, forecasters think it might start to weaken. Strong winds aloft and dry air from the northwest would gradually take the power away from the storm. 

Of course, if the weakening trend begins just as Ian is making landfall say, a little north of Tampa, it won't matter all that much, as it will still be a major hurricane. 

If Ian takes a course toward the Florida panhandle, it will have a greater shot at weakening noticeably before landfall, but that doesn't mean anyone is out of the woods.  

Often, when a hurricane starts to weaken offshore before hitting land, the oceans beneath the storm doesn't immediately get the memo.

The big storm surge that was building when the hurricane was at peak intensity keeps going as the storm itself begins to fade. The most famous example of this might be Hurricane Katrina in 2005.  It was a monster category 5 storm in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, but weakened to Category 3 at landfall. 

However, the storm surge was still Category 5 even after Katrina began to diminish, and New Orleans ended up drowning.  

I'm not saying Hurricane Ian will be another Katrina, but Florida better keep an eye on storm surges in particular. That's especially true if the storm comes close to Tampa Bay. 

No matter which of the two paths Ian takes, it's trajectory would shove water up into Tampa Bay, so I'd expect at least some storm surge flooding there later this week. Remember, storm surges are the most dangerous hazard from a hurricane.  Just ask the people up in Atlantic Canada, who dealt with Fiona's surge over the weekend. 

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, it's gotten a bit quiet again, which is a good thing. Tropical storms Gaston and Hermine have dissipated. 

There's a disturbance roughly halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles that has a strong chance at developing into a tropical depression soon. So far,  it's not any kind of immediate threat. 

TYPHOON NORU

In the Philippines, a typhoon this weekend created a nasty, dangerous surprise. 

Typhoon Noru slammed a large, heavily populated section of the nation Sunday. 

Here's how Jeff Masters and Bob Henson put it, writing in Yale Climate Connections:

"Typhoon Noru put on a spectacular, unexpected and extremely dangerous rapid intensification feat in the waters just east of the Philippines on Saturday,becoming one of the fastest-intensifying cyclones in modern Earth history. Noru's peak 1-minute wind strength, as gauged by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center increased from 50 mph tropical storm strength) at 2 p.m. EDT Friday to 155 mph (top end of the category 4 range) at 2 p.m. EDT Saturday."

Noru ended up making landfall in the Philippines with top wind speeds that had decreased just slightly to 130 mph. 

That storm has already killed at least five people. The five were rescuers trying to retrieve people from floodwaters when a wall collapsed on them. 

Noru also forced tens of thousands of people to evacuate and created widespread flooding. In the capitol, Manila, classes and government agencies closed as the storm lashed the vast city with heavy rain and wind. 

VIDEO

If you'd like an idea of the kind of destruction a hurricane storm surge can cause, watch this incredibly sad news report from Port aux Basques, Newfoundland, Canada. Click on this link if you don't see the image, below. Otherwise click on image to watch on YouTube