Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Atlantic Suddenly Full Of Tropical Danger After Quiet Early Season

Satellite view of powerful Hurricane Fiona east of the
Bahamas this morning. 
 This week,the Atlantic Ocean has really gotten active with hurricanes, tropical storms and wannabe tropical storms. 

As of this morning, we had one major hurricane out there, a tropical storm, a really worrying cluster of storms that will probably turn into a tropical storm, and two other disturbances worth watching.

Some of these will ultimately affect land. So far, up here in New England we're safe, though we'll feel a few effects from that powerful hurricane. Let's take 'em one at a time. 

HURRICANE FIONA:

Yesterday I posted about Hurricane Fiona's destructive slap at Puerto Rico, and how its rickety, corruption-riddled electrical grid collapsed in the face of the hurricane. 

Fiona also caused quite a bit of damage in eastern Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands.

This morning, Hurricane Fiona was formidable, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 130 mph. It'll head northeastward, brushing past Bermuda and flinging tropical storm force winds through that island.

A strong cold front heading into the Northeastern United States will help keep Fiona well off the  United States coast. But that same cold storm system will turn the northeastward traveling Fiona more directly northward starting Friday night when its center is far off the southeastern New England coast. 

That's bad for Canada. Fiona is forecast to make a beeline for Nova Scotia, and probably Labrador and Newfoundland. 

Many things make this bad for Canada. For one thing, Fiona will be racing northward, so won't have much time to weaken over colder waters. Worse, the water isn't that cold. Sea surface temperatures off the coast of New England and Canada are much, much warmer than normal, and that will slow down any weakening trend. 

The expected track of Hurricane Fiona is worrisome
for those in eastern Canada
Still, Fiona will be making a transition from hurricane to large non-tropical storm, which means it will expand in size. 

Intense winds are forecast over the weekend, especially in eastern Nova Scotia, and flooding rains are expected in the rest of the region. This could be the deepest, strongest hurricane on record in that region. 

Here in New England, the expanding Fiona, combined with that strong polar high coming in, will create pretty strong north winds starting tomorrow and especially on Friday. 

Here in Vermont, the winds won't be nearly strong enough to cause damage, but you'll notice a lot of autumn leaves blowing through the air.  

The good news for us is the persistent winds Thursday and Friday nights will keep frost from being as widespread as it would otherwise be in this weather pattern.

TROPICAL STORM GASTON

This tropical storm formed yesterday way out over the central Atlantic Ocean, sort of halfway between Virginia and Portugal. 

It had top winds of 65 mph this morning and probably will get a little stronger. I wouldn't worry too much about this one. It'll just meander out there in the central Atlantic for a few days. It'll just be a storm that bothers the fishies. 

DISTURBANCE 98L

The National Hurricane Center gives a number and letter to areas of suspicious tropical weather that might develop into something. They're keeping a very close eye on one called 98L. Unlike Gaston, this one is worth worrying about. 

Lots of tropical activity in the Atlantic this morning. 

It's southeast of the Leeward Islands at the moment, headed toward the Caribbean Sea.  It's almost guaranteed to develop into a tropical storm, and perhaps eventually a hurricane. Although it's too soon to tell what it will eventually do, many computer models bring this system into the Gulf of Mexico or near the southeastern United States around the end of this month. Stay tuned! 

TWO OTHER DISTURBANCES

One other disturbance way out in the tropics is not expected to develop anytime soon, but still bears watching. Yet another thing about to enter the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa has a better chance of developing, but early indications are it will quickly turn north and not bother anyone. We hope. 


No comments:

Post a Comment