A Beautiful September In Vermont Makes Drought Worse; Climate Data Is In

Despite a couple rain storms, precipitation was once
again below normal in September, so the drought
worsened. Pictured is low Lake Champlain water
as seen at St. Albans Bay, Vermont Sept. 22.

If it weren't for the drought, September was a beautiful weather month in Vermont. Lots of sunny days, comfortable temperatures, all great for outdoor activity. 

Unless of course you were trying to save your wilted garden, or watch the leaves on your trees turn brow and curled and fall off ahead of foliage season. 

This kind of weather stayed consistent all month.

PRECIPITATION 

September was a dry month in Vermont, but not as dry as you'd might think, given how the drought kept getting worse.  

The drought worsened in large part because any rain we did get fell in two short bursts, one around September 5-6 and the other mostly from September 24-25. The rest of the month was bone dry. 

Although September is usually a relatively sunny, pleasant month in Vermont, we almost always get a few periods of gray, drizzly weather that can last nearly a week. Those kinds of conditions prevent things from drying out too fast. 

This year, September instead featured day after day of sunny skies

Burlington had 2.89 inches of rain, which was about three quarters of an inch below normal. Most of northern Vermont was about an inch on the dry side. Which means it wasn't among the driest on record, which was a nice change from August. But still we needed more rain than we got.  

Southwest Vermont was drier. Rutland received about two inches of rain during the month, which was 1.36 inches below normal. Bennington was worse, receiving just 1.37 inches of rain  during September. That was about 2.5 inches on the light side. 

Woodstock in the southeast was actually a tad wetter than normal in September with 3.9 inches. However, all except a third of an inch of that came on September 24-26. 

A new weekly Drought Monitor report is due out tomorrow. That one will take into account the rain last week. However, most observers do not expect much improvement in the drought conditions, 

TEMPERATURES 

The overall mean temperature in Burlington was 64.1 degrees, or 1.4 degrees warmer than normal.  That doesn't sound like it was all that much on the toasty side, but remember, as I remind you every month, is the "new normal."

It's based on the average of temperatures from 1990 to 2020, a time at which climate change had already  made things warmer than then were in the 20th century. 

As it was, September, 2025 was tied for the tenth warmest on record in Burlington. That's part of a trend. There are 15 Septembers in the top 10 list of hottest Septembers in Burlington. Including this year  nine of the top 15 warmest have happened since 2011. 

There weren't really any extremes in September. We saw no record highs or record lows to speak of. Just steady warm nights and somewhat chilly nights. 

That's where that weirdness comes in 

The drought also helped make September temperatures a bit odd: Daily high temperatures were much warmer than normal, and daily low temperatures were near or even a little cooler than normal.

That's because on so many days, the air was unusually dry, the humidity was low. On such days, the sun heats up the air more than when it's humid. But muggy nights stay warm, while the temperature craters on drier nights. 

That's what kept happening in September. In Burlington, the average high temperature or 75.2 degrees was 2.6 degrees, but the average low temperature of 53 was just 0.1 degrees above normal -basically average under the "new normal."

In St. Johnsbury and Rutland, the daily low temperature in September was more than a degree cooler than normal, though highs in both towns were three to four degrees on the warm side. 

There were no truly cool days like we normally get in September. The coldest high temperature of the month this September was 63 degrees.  I could only find one other year with a warmer "coldest" day. That was 64 degrees in 2023.

Interestingly over the past decade, the coldest September high temperature in Burlington was at or above 60 degrees on seven out of ten years. But such days were rare before that. Between 1900 and 2002, all Septembers except two had days with highs in the 50s. Or even 40s in some years. 

I say this every month, as well, but I'll say it again: This is not your grandfather's Vermont climate, that's for sure. 

As noted in this morning's post, October is getting off to a relatively brisk start, but the overall warm trend will return within a couple days. It looks like it might stay generally warm through most of the first half of October. We shall see! 

The really bad news is it looks like it will stay drier than normal through at least the first half of October, too. The drought won't be going anywhere. 

First North Country Frost Advisories Of The Season Tonight

Summer is definitely over!

A chilly looking sunset Sunday evening over Georgia,
Vermont introduced us to a cool spell that brings a 
risk of frost tonight to the coldest hollows of 
northern Vermont, New York and New Hampshire.
The vast majority of us will avoid any frost.

A few places in and near Vermont might get a little frost tonight. Essex County, in the far northeast corner of the Green Mountain State is under a frost advisory overnight tonight through the hours around dawn Tuesday. 

So are the Adirondacks in New York. And Coos County in far northern New Hampshire. 

In those places, it could get down into the low to mid 30s in some place so sensitive plants there should be brought inside or covered. 

For the rest of us, don't worry. It will be the chilliest night so far this season region wide, but the tomatoes and such in your gardens should be safe for now. 

Most of us will bottom out between 38 and 45 degrees, with a few upper 40s to near 50 right along the shore of Lake Champlain. 

Frosts and even solid freezes in the cold spots is not at all unusual around here this time of year. The National Weather Service this morning put out a list of earliest and latest autumn frost dates in selected cities around here. 

The earliest 32 degree temperature in Burlington was on September 13, 1964.  Burlington won't come remotely close to breaking that record tonight. Their forecast low Tuesday morning is 45 degrees. 

Montpelier's earliest freeze on record was on August 31, 1965.  

Remarkably, at least to me, the earliest 32 degree reading on record in Rutland and Woodstock was on August 25, 1940, which seems incredibly early. I looked it up and that 1940 August cold spell was something. St. Johnsbury endured four consecutive mornings in the 30s from August 25-28 that year. 

It will probably get to 32 degrees early Tuesday morning over in Saranac Lake, New York. It was 34 degrees there this morning, and that mountain cold spot has had frosts every month of the year. 

You might think it odd we're talking about frost tonight on a day when afternoon temperatures will ve way up in the 60s.   But it will be perfect night for it to cool off. Light winds, clear skies and very dry air is the exact recipe you need for temperatures to plunge after sunset. 

THE WEEK AHEAD

After the showers of the past few days, it's back to drought. And generally cool, sunny weather for the foreseeable future. 

We felt the winds of autumn yesterday, for sure. The last in a series of cold fronts came through in the afternoon.  The accompanying light showers and stiff wind gusts brought temperatures down into the low 60s by mid afternoon. 

Strong, dry highs pressure is taking control, so the sun will shine brightly today through the rest of the week. 

After those 60s for high temperatures today, it will warm up a little with daytime highs in the low to mid 70s Tuesday and well into the 70s, with some upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday. Because of the dry air, nights will still be chilly - mostly in the 40s all week, with 50s in milder, broad valleys. 

Since the nights will be so cool, overall temperatures this week will come out a little cooler than average for this part of September. 

A new cold front should arrive Thursday or Thursday night to reinforce the autumnal air. I see maybe another frost risk for the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks early Friday and Saturday mornings. It should start to warm up slightly next weekend. 

DROUGHT REASSERTS

Notice I haven't mentioned rain yet.  As I keep saying the drought goes on. And it will start to get worse again. Plenty of sunshine and rock bottom humidity will dry things out quickly. The only moisture we'll see until at least Saturday will be the patchy fog that usually forms in river valleys this time of year. 

We might or might not see a weak disturbance blast down from Quebec Saturday and that, I suppose, could give us a few light showers or sprinkles if it aims at us just right. 

But that pattern of one big, fat, dry high pressure system after another lumbering slowly across our region looks like it might pretty much continue all month. 

It looks like it might end up being a pretty dusty autumn. 

Global And U.S. September Were Super Warm Again, New Data Shows

Once again in September, 2024, it was hard to find 
cool places on a warming Earth. It was the second
warmest September on record, breaking a 15-
month streak of record warm months. 

 Now that we're getting climate reports again from NOAA, we can take a look at what happened in the United States and the world during September.  

To nobody's surprise, it was hot everywhere. Globally, September was the second hottest on record.  

That September was "only" the second hottest ended a 15-month streak of record warm global temperatures, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).     

The September reports were delayed because NCEI is located in Asheville, North Carolina. That city was ravaged by catastrophic flooding from Hurricane Helene in September. 

While the NCEI building was not damaged, the collapse of the city's infrastructure meant that NCEI could not collect data, or disseminate it.

NCEI is the largest environmental and climate data center in the world, and its servers need tons of cooling water from Asheville's municipal supply. The city's water plant was destroyed by Helene, and the city is only now restoring water service to everyone.

So things are looking  up, and we are getting data.  

GLOBAL DATA

First, let's look at the world.

As noted, September globally was the second warmest, just behind the mark set last year.  Still, 2024 now stands a 99.8 percent chance of becoming the world's warmest year on record, according to NCEI.

The familiar trend line continues. As NCEI states:

"September, 2024 marked the 50th consecutive September with global temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average and the 547th consecutive month with temperatures at least nominally above the 20th century average. The past eleven Septembers (2014-2024) have been the warmest Septembers on record."

The warmest areas relative to average were most of North and South America, most of Europe. In particular, eastern Canada, eastern Europe, the Caribbean and a large chunk of Southeast Asia.

As has been the case in recent years, cool spots were few and far between. Somewhat cool areas, relative to average were in extreme western Europe, parts of Greenland and Iceland, south central Russia, Kazakhstan, parts of southern Africa and a good chunk of Antarctica. 

 UNITED STATES

Following the lead of the world, the U.S. also had its second warmest September on record.

September was the United States' second warmest
on record. Year to date is warmest on record.

Arizona, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota had their warmest September on record.  

Here in Vermont, NCEI listed us as having the eleventh warmest September on record. It depends where you were in the state, of course. Burlington measured its fourth warmest September. 

Nobody in the United States had a cool September, though several states in the Southeast were fairly close to normal for the month. 

The twelve month period ending in September has also been the warmest on record for the United States. 

One other way to look at the relative warmth of September and the year as a whole is to inspect how many daily record highs and lows were set at thousands of weather stations across the U.S.

In September, we saw 1,734 record highs and 573 record lows. Through September 30, the nation had 23,169 record highs and 8,882 record lows.

Helping to set the stage for the drought now expanding in the United States, September was on the dry side, coming in at 40th driest out of 130 years of record. Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska had their driest Septembers on record. Connecticut,  Delaware, Maine, Michigan, New Jersey, South Dakota and Wisconsin had one of their top ten driest Septembers.

DISASTERS

As of October 1, the number of weather disasters in the U.S. this year costing at least $1 billion is now up to 24. The only year that was worse was last year, when there were 27 such disasters through mid-October.

As you might expect, Hurricanes Helene and Milton have been added to the list of billion dollar disasters. We know each storm cost at least that much, and certainly more, but final cost estimates are not in yet. 

September Was Among Vermont's Hottest, And Among A Slew Of Recent Hottest Septembers

One of the many gorgeous days Vermont had in September,
2024. This is a shot of Georgia, Vermont on September 19.
Subjectively, it was just about the most pleasant 
September I can remember, but also one of the warmest.

Another September, another September that was among Vermont's warmest on record.

The mean temperature - at least as measured in Burlington, worked out to 65.6 degrees, the fourth warmest on record in data dating back to the 1880s. 

This means that the seven Septembers just in the past decade are in the top warmest on record in Burlington.

There are ties, accounting for the "bad" math there.  Number 5 warmest is a tie between 2023 and 1961, number 3 is a tie between 2016 and 2017).

That's quite a signal for climate change, isn't it?

This September, though was different than the slew of very warm Septembers in recent years. 

Those Septembers in the past decade or so have featured some extremes, such as torrid, sometimes record-breaking early month heat waves, uncomfortably oppressive nights, and a few severe thunderstorms and torrential rains.

By contrast, September, 2024 was remarkably pleasant by comparison. The hottest it got in Burlington all month was a relatively tame 86 degrees on three days, and the warmest night got down to a fairly reasonable 63 degrees. 

It also appears we tied with last year for the warmest low for the month of September. The chilliest night in Burlington only got down to 45 degrees.  For comparison, the coldest it has ever gotten in Burlington in September is 25 degrees. 

In one respect, we actually beat out last year for mild nights. In September, 2023, six nights got into the 40s. This year, there were only four such nights.

It's so out of whack that when it finally gets chilly, as it inevitably will there will be no frost or freeze warnings for colder areas of Vermont like the Northeast Kingdom. That's because in most years, those warnings are unnecessary as the growing season is considered over by now. They should have already had garden killing frosts by now.  Not this year!

Looking elsewhere in the state, climate sites in Montpelier, St. Johnsbury, Rutland and other places ran about two or three degrees warmer than  normal, just as Burlington did with its departure of 2.9 degrees above normal.

Remember this is the "new normal" which is the average of the 30 years ending 2020. Those three decades were decidedly warmer than the 20th century average. Had this year's version of September happened in the 1980s, it would have been something like a whopping six degrees on the warm side compared to what was then "normal."  

Another sunny, September, 2024 day. This was September 6
as viewed from near the summit of Mount Mansfield. 

In Burlington 2.68 inches of rain fell, which is about an  inch below normal. By my calculation, it was the 49th driest September out of the past 140 years. 

There were only five days with measurable rainfall in Burlington during September, which is remarkably small 

Also, what rainfall we did get mostly fell on two relatively brief occasions, each lasting about two days. 

Those two rain storms, and some showers on September 1, were very well behaved, causing more harm than good, as both tempered developing dry conditions. 

Most of the rest of the month featured sunny days, even if the majority of them started with early morning fog, which quickly burned off.

I have to say this was one - subjectively - of the most pleasant weather Septembers in my memory. Unlike so many other areas of the United States and world, Vermont enjoyed a no drama September. A welcome change from the weather violence we have endured from time to time in the past couple years. 

The fact that September was that  warm means that so far, 2024 is the hottest year on record. Whether that will hold for the entire year depends on whether we take a sharp turn toward colder than normal weather in the final three months of the year. 

Long range forecast are always iffy. But in general, if NOAA is right, the remaining three months of 2024 should be mostly warmer than average. We shall see if they're right.

In the somewhat shorter term, temperature and rainfall predictions are running close to normal through mid-October. 

The new month is starting off where September left off. Today through Friday should be generally sunny and warmer than average. Tomorrow will be an exception, with a risk of showers, a fair amount of clouds and temperatures merely near normal with highs in the 60s. 

Something Weird And Warm Is Going On With Vermont Septembers

A little hard to see in there, but a bumblebee is seem
here enjoying a white rose on a warm September
Sunday morning in St. Albans, Vermont. Recent
Septembers in Vermont have grown sharply warmer. 

 As we all know, we are in the midst of a long spell of oddly warm, dry September weather in Vermont. 

Sunday was the third day in a row of 80 degree temperatures, with at least four more in a row coming.  

It hasn't rained in Burlington since a sprinkle on September 9, and there's a chance it won't rain again for another 10 days.

 That depends on whether a weird little possibly subtropical storm expected to hit the Carolinas Monday can throw enough moisture our way to set off a few sprinkles toward the middle of this week. 

Spells of September weather like this used to be rare in Vermont, but in recent years, it's gotten far more common.

Thanks climate change, the top 10 lists of warmest months throughout the calendar has a number of recent years clustered in those lists, at least as measure in Burlington.  It's just warmer than it used to be, so we're more likely to have near record warm months thrown in. 

But September is ridiculous.  The ninth month of the year has taken a sharp turn toward becoming an extension of summer, especially in the last decade or so.

The top five warmest Septembers have all occurred since 2015. Until recent years, the warmest September in Burlington had an average of 65.4 degrees, set in 1961. Now, the warmest year is 67.4 degrees, set in 2015.

Even the recent Septembers that didn't make the top ten warmest list have been balmy.

Septembers with an average temperature of under 60 degrees used to be the usual. Only 40 out of the 100 Septembers between 1900 and 1999 had an average temperature of over 60 degrees, as measured in Burlington. 

Then it changed. All Septembers since 2010 have had an average temperature of over 60 degrees, and only one September since 2000 has fallen short of a 60 degree average.

Recent Septembers have also featured very long dry spells, longer and hotter than the one we're having now. The warm to hot, and rainless spell in September, 2017 was as extreme as they get. That month featured 20 consecutive days with absolutely no rain at Burlington. 

That dry spell culminated in a seriously whacked out heat wave. Until 2017, the latest 90 degree temperature of the season was on September 16, 1939. But on September 24-27, 2017, Burlington saw four consecutive days in the 90s. 

The 2017 autumn heat extended through October, which became by far the warmest on record in Burlington. 

In 2015, each of the first nine days of September were over 80 degrees, and three of those got above 90 degrees. In 2018, there were five consecutive days of temperatures of 85 or more from the fourteenth through the 18th. 

Our current warm, dry September - as toasty as it is - will probably not be the warmest on record. I question whether it will even make it into the list of top ten warmest.  But once again, this September is not your grandfather's early autumn month. 

Long Vermont Sunny Spell Is Over; But Another Long Vermont Sunny Spell On The Way

A very clear, nearly haze-free view from near the summit
of Mount Mansfield, Vermont on Friday. It was the last
day of a long stretch of sunny weather in the Green 
Mountain State. After an interruption in the good
weather this weekend, another long spell of 
fair weather seems likely next week. 

 Gosh, that was a gorgeous few days in Vermont wasn't it. 

Lots of sunshine, comfortable temperatures - it was perfect.  

All good things must come to an end. But all good things must also return!

I'll explain. 

A slow moving high pressure system through deep layers of the atmosphere ensured a lot of slowly sinking air over us the past few days. 

Sinking air suppresses clouds, which is why we saw so few of them Tuesday through Friday. 

Friday's scattered clouds amid a still gorgeous day hinted that the high pressure system was departing. Sure enough, we have a sharp dip in the jet stream, which means a storm system, a cold front, and plenty of rising air. 

Rising air means rain. Hence, an ill-timed burst of Saturday afternoon and evening rain and a sharp drop in temperature is on the way. 

SUN INTERRUPTED

Clouds were noticeably increasing across Vermont this morning, and that cold front should come through this afternoon. Be ready for changing weather during the day, for sure.

We'll have a few hours of soaking rain with the cold front this afternoon and tonight. Along with the umbrellas, bring a hoodie, since temperatures will start to crash through the 60s and into the 50s this evening. 

The rain will mostly shut down later tonight, within a few hours after sunset, but the chill will keep flooding in. That dip in a jet stream is bringing a flow of chilly Canadian air. We're getting into autumn, remember?

I had the opportunity to take the Stowe Gondola to near the Mount Mansfield summit with visiting relatives Friday, and it was really gorgeous up there. We saw lots of comfortable temperatures (70s in Stowe Village, probably low to mid 60s mountain summit), lots of blue sky, and remarkably light winds for a Vermont mountain summit.

Video from the trip is at the bottom of this post.

I'm glad we didn't plan that trip for tomorrow. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is warning hikers of near winter conditions on the summits during Sunday. Atop the mountains Sunday, expect temperatures in the 30s to low 40s with winds gusting to at least 40 mph. That translates to wind chills in the upper teens and 20s. Definitely dress right for a hike

Down in the valleys, it'll be cool but reasonable (near 60 degrees or so for highs). There might be a few light showers, but nothing to get too worried about.  Monday will also be cool, with some clouds, maybe a light shower or two. 

WARM SUN COMES BACK

If you liked the past week, the signs are growing that we're going to do it again. Forecasts call for another strong high pressure system to park itself over the Northeast through next week, and quite possibly beyond.

That would mean another long stretch of sunny weather with a warming trend. It could be 80 degrees again toward the end of next week.  The overall pattern features high pressure to mostly dominate the Northeast possibly into the third week of the month. 

If that happens, we'll end up with overall a gorgeous September. Even if today's rain interrupts some of your outdoor plans.  

Video: Views from near the top of Mount Mansfield on Friday, courtesy of the Stowe Mountain Resort gondola.  Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.

Was Chilly In Vermont This Morning But Nothing Compared To Pre-Climate Change

Don't worry, this was NOT my garden this morning. But,
as forecast, a couple of the coldest hollows probably
had frost this morning. In the past, we've had colder
weather than this in early September. 

 By any measure, it was definitely cooler than average in Vermont his morning. Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York was down to 30 degrees just after 6 a.m. 

As of this 6:30 a.m. writing, I'm not sure whether any frost developed in the Northeast Kingdom, as it's too early to get temperature reports from that area. 

Elsewhere, pretty much every in Vermont started the day in the upper 30s to mid 40s, just as had been forecast. 

At last check around 6 a.m. Burlington was down to 46 degrees, the coolest it's been since June 16. It was 43 degrees at my perch here in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Yes, it's definitely cool for the season, but it's been colder. Burlington's record low for today is 38, so we're not even close. 

Frosts have hit all months of the year in the very coldest hollows of Vermont, and in the Adirondacks. 

Compared to late August and early September cold snaps in the distant past, today was no great shakes.  Cool spells in the current age of climate change are not your grandfather's  chilly spells. 

I have the receipts. 

Examples abound.

According to David Ludlum's Vermont Weather Book:

On August 31, 1965, it got down to a wintery 25 degrees in South Londonderry, 26 in West Burke and 27 in both Northfield and Chelsea. Talk about an early end to the growing season! Burlington got to 35 degrees that day. It was the coldest temperature on record in Burlington, but that record was tied in 1976.

That August 31 brought temperatures to 29 in Northfield, Sutton and Woodstock. 

In the first week of September, 1967, West Burke got into the 30s for six days in a row. Not happening this year. 

In 1963, it was 28 degrees in Chelsea on September 5, and 30 degrees in West Burke on both the fifth and the sixth. 

Those were surely not great tomato growing years in Vermont. 

Any frost in the cold hollows today was a one-off, at least for now.  A warming trend will begin today, It'll still be on the cool side, with highs today within a couple degrees either side of 70. Tonight will be cool, but not as chilly as last night. By Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, highs temperatures will reach the 70s to around 80. 

There also isn't any real sign of a return to hard core summer weather, either, for at least a week or more. Another spell of coolish weather will probably return by next Sunday or Monday, as it looks now. 

Now It's Confirmed: World Was Insanely Hot In September

We got confirmation Friday that the world had by far
it's hottest September on record. Just a patch
near the tip of South America and a pinpoint
northeast of Greenland were on the cool side.

 As promised in an earlier post, when I said there would be updates,  NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information gave us big time confirmation that September's global heat was just insane. 

NCEI said September was the world's hottest September by a wide margin. Here's some perspective they provided: 

"'September, 2023 was the fourth month in a row of record-warm global temperatures,' said NOAA Chief Scientist Dr. Sarah Kapnick. 'Not only was it the warmest September on record, it was far and away the most atypically warm months of any (emphasis theirs, not mine) in NOAA's 174 years of climate keeping. To put it another way, September, 2023 was warmer than the average July from 2001-2010."

July is normally the world's hottest month of the year, despite the fact it is mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere. The Julys in 2001-2010 were also warmer than the long term average, thanks to global climate change. So September's figures are really a big, big deal. 

September globally was 2.59 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the 20th century average for the month. That might not sound like much.  But the world is so vast with such variable weather that month to month and year to year changes are very small.

In recent years, if a month breaks a record for hottest on record, it does so by exceeding the previous mark buy less than a degree Fahrenheit.  This is why I said in that earlier post that scientists are gobsmacked by September's figures. 

It definitely was the highest monthly temperature anomaly - "which indicates how much warmer or cooler temperatures are from the long-term average - of any month on record," said NCEI.

Given that September was so warm globally, it was hard to find any areas that were cooler than average, or at least near normal. The only cooler than average spots I could find was a patch in the Pacific Ocean around the southern tip of South America. And a tiny patch of Arctic Ocean northeast of Greenland. That's about it. 

Africa, Europe, North and South America and Antarctica had their hottest September on record.  The cold spots maybe were Asia and the Arctic, which only had their second warmest September. 

Ocean surface temperatures also set a record high for September, which was the sixth month in a row a record was set. 

I've been tracking these monthly global climate statistics for years, decades, really, and I've never seen anything remotely like this. 

As I like to do every month, I like to remind you the last time the world had a slightly cooler than average month. If you are younger than 44.5 years old, you've never seen a cooler than average global month. If you are younger than 49, you've never seen a globally cooler than average September. 

The fact that September was so bonkers warm means that 2023 is definitely in line to become the world's hottest year on record. July and August were also the hottest months on record. The extreme September seems to have sealed the deal. NCEI is now saying that there's more than a 99 percent cache that this year will be the world's hottest year.

As mentioned in my earlier post, El Nino is working in concert with climate change to really boost global temperatures this  year.  El Nino should end temporarily within the next one or two years, and that will sort of turn some of the heat down.

But only a tiny bit. As Yale Climate Connections reported in an  update, when El Nino ends, global temperatures should temporarily fall by only 0.2 to 0.3 degrees Celsius. That will bring us down to levels that are still warmer than anything before 2015 or so. 

  

 

 

"Gobsmackingly Bananas" Worldwide Extreme Hottest September Explained. And Yes, It's Alarming With A Tiny Asterisk

Boaters try to cool off on Lake Champlain at Burlington,
Vermont on a hot, humid September 4.  The month
was the world's hottest September on record by
a huge margin, which raised extra
concern among climate scientists.

 Most of the official numbers aren't quite in yet to tell us whether September, 2023 was the warmest, or ate least the warmest on record.  

But preliminary figures are shocking. 

As NBC News reports:

"Last month shattered the record for the hottest September on record by such a wide margin that climate scientists say it was almost beyond belief.

The September milestone, reported in ned dates released (Oct. 4) by the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, added to an alarming stretch of record-breaking global temperatures. During June, July and August, the planet had its hottest summer on record 'by a large margin.'"

The Rotten Tomatoes style reviews of September by climate scientists and others involved in climate change issues are pretty impressive:

"Gobsmackingly bananas"

"Uncharted territories"

"The writing is clearly on the wall"

"It really makes me very nervous of what's to come."

"Flabbergasted."

"Overcome with grief"

"Bonkers"

"Mind-boggling"

You get the idea.

Some perspective: Yes, the preliminary September global temperature data is really shocking. And it's another sign that global climate change is really, really bad.  As if you didn't know that already. 

However, signs suggest that the September data is more of a sign of what's to come than what is current reality.  

I know the above sentence isn't exactly comfort to especially younger people who will live in a hotter, more dangerous world. 

As I've stated before in this here blog thingy, El Nino is giving an extra boost to climate change this year. El Nino always boosts global temperatures. Climate change helps oceans store additional heat, and El Nino encourages that ocean heat to release in the atmosphere in a pretty big burst. 

So it's not surprising that El Nino working in concert with climate change would have boosted September's numbers to unheard of levels.

However, even that one/two combo can't fully explain how out of whack September was. 

If preliminary figures pan out (We'll have final figures within a week or so), September beat the previous global heat record for the month by 0.5 degrees Celsius or about a degree Fahrenheit.

That doesn't sound like much, but in past experience, if a month becomes a new record warmest for Earth, it'll beat the previous mark by just a few hundredths of a degree. 

El Nino on average can add a couple tenths of a degree to the world's temperature, so I can guess that explains a little less than half of September's global heat. 

There's also probably some other factors at work.

As the Washington Post reports:

"Other factors may be contributing to the warming, (climate researcher Zeke) Hausfather,  said: Reduced emissions from shipping liners, allowing more sunlight to reach the oceans; the 2022 eruption of the South Pacific underwater volcano Hunga Tunga, which sent vast amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere; and an ongoing upswing in solar activity, slightly increasing the sun's warming effect on Earth."

But that still doesn't explain the entirety of September's global heat. 

All of this could also be partly a reflection of a poorly understood pendulum of climate trends. In the early 2000s, natural trends slowed, but did not stop the march of climate change.  Now, it seems that pendulum has swung to an acceleration of the Earth's warming. 

The major goal for climate activists and scientists has been to prevent the world's temperature from going more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

At this point, everybody knows there are and will be some periods in which the Earth is above that 1.5 degree threshold, but as long as the long term is below that level, we will be sorta, kinda OK. 

Roughly a third of the days so far this year have been 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Climate is variable month to month and year to year. There are signs that October is trending ever so closer to those pre-industrial temperature levels, and won't be quite as gonzo out of whack like September was, Hausfather, the climate researcher said on social media Monday.

Still, he thinks October could well be the world's warmest on record, following the trend of July, August and September. 

El Nino will probably last well into 2024, so we will probably see all time record warm years for the world in 2023 and 2024.

That El Nino will eventually end, and chances are we'll settle into a global pattern much like we saw after past El Ninos.  The warming trend either slows or sort of levels off for a few years after the El Nino, but it doesn't cool back down to the levels seen before that El Nino.  It's like a staircase, with each El Nino being a riser.

This is no Stairway to Heaven.  It's a stair case toward a more hellish, more dangerous, more challenging world unless fossil fuel emissions are cut down dramatically and fast. 

 

Another Top 10 Warmest September Just Ended In Vermont

The last day of September in Vermont was like many days
during the month: Dry, warm with wildfire haze in the air, as
you can see from this view Saturday from St.
Albans hill 

 Following a trend over nearly the past decade, Vermont - at least as measured up in Burlington - just had one of its warmest Septembers on record. 

September, 2023 is tied with 1961 as fourth warmest, with a mean temperature of 65.4 degrees.

Due to ties, there's actually seven Septembers in the top five list of warmest in Burlington, where records go back to  the 1880s.  Six of those seven have all happened in the past eight years. 

The number 1 spot goes to 2015. Number 2 is 2018.  There's a tie for third place between 2016 and 2017.  This year is tied with 1961 for fourth place, And the fifth place finisher on the warmest September list is 2021. 

 September was consistently warm through the entire month, and across the entire state of Vermont. A heat wave between September 4 and 8 boosted temperatures into the 90s and broke some record highs on those dates. 

Nights were warm, too.  Pretty much nobody in Vermont had any frost in September, which is unusual. Montpelier, which often sees rather cool nights, never got below 40 degrees in September In the Banana Belt Champlain Valley, the coolest it ever got in Burlington was 45 degrees. It's been know to reach the upper 20s in some years even there. 

A welcome change visited Vermont in September: The relentless rains diminished. It was still on the wet side in the first half of the month, but the faucet largely shut off during the second half of the month. In fact most places north of Route 2 saw no rain after September 19.

The result was a dry-ish month. Burlington had just under three inches of rain, which was about 0.76 inches below normal. Montpelier was shy of normal by about a third of an inch, and Rutland was more than an inch on the dry side.

One thing that unfortunately did linger was the ever-present wildfire smoke from those fires raging in Canada. We never really had a super unhealthful air quality day, but the air in September often fell short of pristine. 

By my count, Vermont had at least 16 days with at least some haze or smoke aloft. Each of the past nine days have either had smoke aloft, haze on the ground or both. See video at the bottom of this post.

This state of affairs will continue at least a few more days. October will start dry and very warm, with some record highs anticipated midweek.  Smoke and haze will unfortunately linger, too. 

It looks like some rain, then cooler, fresher air coming in toward the end of the week and next weekend. I even see preliminary signs that we might have a spell of harshly colder weather at mid-month, which would actually bring us frosts and, yes, snow flurries. Stay tuned, we'll see if that happens!  

Video: The last day of September featured warm temperatures, changing fall foliage and lots of haze from Canadian wildfire smoke. Some views in northwestern Vermont. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

"Coldest" Morning Of The Vermont So Far Was Right About Normal, Actually

Wednesday was a candidate for the most perfect weather
day of the year in Vermont.  Trees aren't really turning
color yet, but the recent turn to more seasonable
temperatures might encourage some foliage in the coming days.

 This morning in Burlington, Vermont, the temperature went down to 47 degrees, the first time it was under 50 degrees since June 4.  

As far as I can determine, this looks like it might be the second longest period continuously above 50 degrees on record. This year it was 108 such days. In 2021, it was 110 days. 

This also  had to be one  of the latest or possibly even the latest first 50 of the autumn on record.  After all, it has been below freezing this time of year in Burlington, according to past weather records. 

All this is to say, it might have felt chilly this morning, but temperatures were actually very close to normal for the days around the Autumn Equinox. 

Morning lows in the warmer valleys of Vermont are usually within a few degrees of 50 degrees this time of year. Away from Lake Champlain, lows this time of year are generally in the 40s, which is right where most people were at dawn today 

The perennial cold spot, Saranac Lake, New York was down to 31 degrees today, but for them, that's totally par for the course in mid-September. The cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom were in the upper 30s, but again, yawn. 

This of course, is what we've been waiting for in oddly humid June, July, August and early September. Tuesday was about as perfect a day as you could get: Deep blue skies dotted with just a few clouds, perfectly comfortable temperatures and a pleasant light breeze. It was a strong candidate for nicest day of 2023.

The good news is, the weather looks like it will stay almost as nice as Tuesday, with of course a few hiccups and caveats. 

Today will be another nice one.  We're back to having wildfire smoke in the atmosphere due to those ongoing Canadian fires. So the sky won't be as nice a deep blue as yesterday. It will have a disappointing haze to it. The smoke is aloft, so we don't really have to worry about air quality. 

Right now there's a weird storm forming off the east coast of Florida. Looks like it will be some sort of odd hybrid between a regular storm and a tropical storm. 

The effects on the ground won't matter either way. Things should get nasty in North Carolina and Virginia by Friday night, with gusty winds, storm surges and torrential rains. 

The question is how far this thing will move north.   Early signs suggest it might get shoved off to our south by strong high pressure building strength in Quebec, but there's no guarantees.   

Initial guesses are that rain might spread into southern Vermont over the weekend, but might not make it much further north than that. But nobody knows for sure. No flooding concerns with this one, though.

This silly storm could spread high clouds across Vermont like Lee did last Friday, which could give us another round of great sunsets. Especially with a little wildfire smoke in the upper atmosphere. 

Damp Vermont Tuesday After Monday Storm Under-Performed

Pretty dark and damp today in northern Vermont, as you
can see from this photo this morning in St. Albans.
Much brighter, more pleasant weather is coming
for the rest of the week, though. 

Yesterday and last night's expected soaking in Vermont wasn't quite the soggy episode that many forecasters had expected. 

But it still rained hard in the bullseye zone of the storm in eastern Massachusetts, parts of New Hampshire and Maine. 

Western Maine had widespread two to three inch rain reports, with a few places getting more than that. Flood warnings were up for the region this morning but have since expired.  

Here in Vermont, I suspected in yesterday's post there would be a sharp cut off in rainfall amounts in the Champlain Valley, and that certainly came true.  Only 0.10 inches of rain fell yesterday in Burlington.  

Central Vermont got somewhat less rain than expected, with amounts, give or take in the half inch range. But southern and far eastern Vermont got an inch or more of rain, so they got what was coming to them. 

Today is looking wetter than we thought it would be only a couple days ago. That's especially true in northern and central Vermont. Frequent, mostly light showers have been ongoing all morning, and that state of affairs should continue through the day. 

Although radar isn't showing it, some of the shallow rain clouds overhead are actually able to produce brief heavy downpours. I passed through a couple such downpours driving through Georgia, Vermont this morning. 

If you do get a downpour, it won't long. They'll fall far, far short of ever being able to cause any high water issues. Just want to mention that in case you're understandably still spooked from Vermont disastrous summer of floods. 

Especially for those of you north of Route 4, today will be a classic raw, dark, autumn day, with temperatures holding in the low 60s again, on the cool side. This type of weather is pretty normal for mid-September. 

For those of you who don't like the gloom, we're still looking a few days of super pleasant, sunny, comfortable September days starting tomorrow. Most mornings will be pretty foggy, though, especially in the river valleys. That's typical of this time of year. The fog will clear up by mid-morning daily

It is nice to have a stretch of normal September weather for a change. 

Not Just Vermont: Widespread Impressive Record Highs Being Set Across U.S., World

Map of United States temperatures shows the entire
Lower 48 quite hot except northern Plains, northern/
central Rockies and Pacific Northwest. 

I've been harping on the record and near record heat enveloping us in Vermont, but this hot weather has been pretty widespread lately.  

This is following a summer trend that has largely excluded Vermont until now. 

Record heat has been settling into various parts of the nation all summer. But the last time we had any record highs in Vermont was in early June. 

Both New Orleans and Baton Rouge, Louisiana had 33 record highs this summer, for instance. 

As September opened, record heat gripped much of the nation, and this time, it spread into Vermont. Some of those records outside the Green Mountain State have been pretty impressive.  

On Sunday, the often frigid cities Duluth and Hibbing, in northern Minnesota reached all time highs for September, with Duluth getting to 99 and Hibbing reaching 95 degrees. Wausau. Wisconsin tied its September record, reaching 99 degrees.

Monday, more cities hit all time record highs for the month of September,  said weather historian Maximiliano Herrera.  Those included ten cities in Minnesota and six in Wisconsin. Borger, Texas and Lancaster, Pennsylvania also set all time records for the month of September. 

On Tuesday, the heat was widespread, as record highs were reported as far west as Abilene, Texas, which had a high of 107 degree, a new September record. Other record highs for the date were reported as far northwest as Sault Ste Marie, Michigan, as far south as Raleigh, North Carolina and as far northeast as Millinocket, Maine. 

On Monday, temperatures over 100 degrees were reported as far north as Huron, South Dakota.  

Usually, school closings come in winter, as snow and ice storms cause havoc. This time, it's the heat. Schools in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, New Jersey and Missouri closed this week due to hot weather. 

This all isn't limited to the United States, either. All time record heat for September was reported in Japan, South Korea, China, Myanmar, Iran, Iraq, sections of Europe from Spain to Switzerland and in parts of northern Russia, Herrera, the weather historian noted. More than 200 French cities have already reported all time record highs for September. 

By this warped, climate change standard, Vermont is relatively cool this week. True, Burlington broke a record high for the date today, reaching 92 degrees  Montpelier also broke its record high for the date, reaching at least 86.

However, today's records are for today's date, and fell short of reaching all time highs for the entire month of September.  

 I'm sure quite a few other cities in the eastern United States had record highs today, and I can update that tomorrow. 

The heat will taper off in the east by the weekend. But new, probably record heat waves are developing in the next few days in Texas, Louisiana, Arizona and extreme southeastern California. 

 

Odd Vermont September Heat Begins Today, But Really Gets Going Midweek

A hot muggy evening in Vermont, September 2020. A hot
spell is due this week, continuing a trend in recent years
of very warm Septembers in the Green Mountain State.

 The last time the temperature in  Burlington, Vermont got passed 83 degrees was way back on July 28.  As mentioned in a previous post, it was the coolest August maximum since 1927. 

Well, it's payback time. 

It could get as warm as 85 degree today, and then, at least in the valleys, it will probably be in the upper 80s to around 90 each day Monday through Thursday. Quite a stretch for a Vermont September if it pans out.

Although this won't be the worst heat wave ever, the National Weather Service in South Burlington notes two factors that will make this one a little tougher to take than you might expect.

For one, although we had our fair share of humid days in August. we haven't had a true hot day since July 28, when it was 91 degrees in Burlington. So, we'll have to re-acclimate to the hot weather. 

An even bigger deal is the fact that schools are open. Most Vermont schools are not air conditioned, so classrooms will get pretty hot.  Teachers and faculty will have to watch kids closely for signs of heat exhaustion or dehydration.

Vermonters accustomed to schools closing during winter storms. I wonder if some schools will have to shut down because of the heat. 

That's possible, because nights will be quite stuffy during this hot spell as well. Which means room temperatures won't drop much at night. The heat in those school buildings, many of them old, will build up.

One thing that could keep temperatures from really getting out of control is the wet summer we had. The wet ground will add humidity to the air, which would knock back temperatures a bit. Of course, that doesn't help any of us at all, because the extra humidity will just make things feel worse. 

Although there might be a few daily record highs in Vermont between Monday and Thursday, this won't be an all-time record breaker. 

With climate change, Septembers, like pretty much all months, has gotten hotter than they used to be.  

The long time record hottest temperature in Burlington for September was 95 degrees set in 1931. That is, until 2002, when it somehow rocketed up to 98 degrees on September 9 that year. 

Strong 90 degree heat waves also set record highs in September in 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2018 so the suite of daily record highs in September have changed hugely over the past two decades.

I don't know how this entire September will pan out, but there's been a big trend for hot Septembers.  Five of the top six hottest Septembers in Burlington have happened since 2015, and seven of the top ten happened since 2002.

Who knows whether this month will join that hot September list, but we're off to a rousing start.  

Summer To Arrive In Vermont Just In Time For Autumn

Now that summer is ending, summer weather looks
like it will finally arrive for September. Odds
strongly favor warmer than normal weather here
in the opening week of the new month, and 
probably beyond. 

 True to form, more rain fell on Vermont today, and in Addison County, it was heavy enough this morning to prompt a flood warning in part of the county. 

So far, I haven't seen any confirmed reports of flooding in that county, and the rain there has tapered off for now. 

But that's the story of the entire summer of 2023, as we well know. We've had repeated storms, floods and seemingly endless rain.  It hasn't been much of a summer, really. 

Now, we're coming up on the Labor Day weekend, which is the unofficial close of summer. And wouldn't you know, it's beginning to look like that will mark the start of an extended period of very warm to hot and dry summer weather. 

Go figure. 

Most of the extended forecasts put a big ridge of warm high pressure over the eastern United States. Hot, humid, but mostly rain-free weather looks like it wants to pour into the Northeast, including Vermont next week.

The heavier rains that hit central and southern Vermont this morning were departing by late morning, but scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon ahead of one last weather front. A few storms could be strong-ish, but it doesn't look like we'll have anything severe. And the storms will be hit and miss. Some of us will get wet again, some of us won't.

Thursday will be dry, sunny and on the cool side for this time of year, but nothing that remarkable. (Earlier forecasts had called for a true taste of autumn with downright chilly temperatures, but computer models have really backed off on that idea).

So expect highs in the 60s too around 70 Thursday, and a cool Friday morning. 

Then, summer arrives! Yay! In September. 

It's unclear just how hot it will get or how long it will last. It's possible the warmer valleys in Vermont could touch 90 degrees next week, but that's iffy. It's harder to reach 90 in September than it is in July and August, as normally we should be cooling down into autumn. 

It's possible that weak cold fronts could occasionally temper the heat beyond midweek, but that's unknown, too. Generally, forecasts call for above normal temperatures well into second week of September.

Also, for a change, odds somewhat favor below normal rainfall through the first week of September and probably a little beyond that. 

Wet Vermont September Eased Drought, But Was Gloomy

The sun briefly breaks through dark rain clouds over St.
Albans, Vermont on September 22.  This September
was among the wettest on record.

 If you had the feeling that Vermont's September this year was sodden as hell, you're right. 

Everyone in the state had a decidedly wetter than normal September. Burlington logged 6.46 inches of rain, making it the fourth wettest September on record.  

Interestingly, this September was the wettest on record in Burlington that did not have a tropical storm contribute to the total. The top three wettest Septembers were wet in part due to torrential tropical storms.

The wettest September, with a whopping 10.26 inches of rain, was in 1999. That was the year Tropical Storm Floyd swept across Vermont. The second wettest September, 1945, (8.18 inches) featured a hurricane that hit Florida, as a Category 4 storm, the roared up the East Coast and through New England as a dying tropical storm.  

The third wettest September, 1938, (6.87) featured the Great New England Hurricane, which was the worst hurricane in New England (and Vermont!) history.  

No tropical storms for us this year. Even as we begin October, the remnants of Hurricane Ian will only cause high cloudiness and perhaps a sprinkle near the Massachusetts border.

September was consistently wet across Vermont. Most reporting stations  had about six inches of rain, except in pockets of southern Vermont, where only four or five inches fell. That's still above normal.

Vermont entered September with widespread dryness and large areas in the state in drought. September rains definitely helped.   

A very wet September, 2022 in Vermont made it a 
hospitable month for mushrooms, like this one that
popped up on my St. Albans, Vermont lawn in 
mid-September.

Only two percent of Vermont - the southeast corner -  is now in drought. Half the state, believe it or not, is still "abnormally dry" according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.  

The reason is ground water has not fully recovered in parts of central and southern Vermont. At the start of the month, virtually all of the state was abnormally dry or in drought.   

Though rainfall was definitely out of the ordinary, temperatures in September weren't.

 Pretty much everyone came in within about a  half a degree of what is regarded as normal these days.  Burlington was the most out of whack, but even there, the average for the month came in at only 0.7 degrees below normal.  That's not much of a departure from normal at all. 

Remember, this is the "new normal" brought on by climate change.  Several decades ago, this September would have been regarded as definitely on the warm side. Back in the 1970s, the mean temperature for this September in Burlington would have been about four degrees above what was then the average.

Still, this September was a break from recent ones. Four of the top five hottest Septembers in Burlington have all happened since 2015. Not this year, though. 

Looking ahead to October, long range forecasts seem to be leaning toward generally colder and drier than normal weather at least through mid-month. Do note that long range forecasts can be unreliable. For instance, long range forecasts issued in August suggested this September would be quite warm and on the dry side. Ooops. 

It's A Chilly September Day, Could Be Worse. Also, Tropical Trouble Update

Golden evening light and dark clouds behind a sharp
autumn cold front Thursday in St. Albans, Vermont. 

 As expected, it's chilly today, probably the coldest Vermont day we've seen since the end of April. 

Of course, that's not to say the cool breezes, the morning clouds, the risk of mountain top snow flurries and the chances of pockets of frost tonight are unusual.  

I actually did see video of it snowing in Lake Placid, New York this morning. All this is par for the course for late September. 

Maybe less so than in the past, but still, we're blasting through autumn, heading for winter. 

Under the climate change "new normal" we're currently in, this month looks like it's going to work out to something you should expect in September in our now- altered world.  It'll be a contrast to recent record hot Septembers, so I guess you can enjoy the fact you haven't roasted this month. 

However, by historical standards, this September would definitely be warmer than what would have been expected. 

Cool snaps like we're having now, or even near record cold will will continue to happen in September once in awhile. But over the years, they'll gradually become less frequent, or not as chilly as the weather we're having now. 

As recently as the 1960s and 1970s, frost was pretty common even in the Champlain Valley in late September. The record lows in Burlington this week are pretty much all in the mid to upper 20s. 

You can feel the chill in the air just looking at this 
photo in St. Albans, Vermont Thursday after a 
sharp autumn cold front passed through. 

So it could be worse.

As for frost, the best chances of tonight are over the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. 

You'd think the Northeast Kingdom would be under the gun for frost, and it will be close up there. But the wind should continue to blow from the northwest overnight. 

The strongest winds will be east of the Green Mountains. Nothing scary, just a breeze, really.  

That potentially frost-preventing breeze tonight in the Northeast Kingdom has everything to do with Hurricane Fiona

HURRICANE FIONA

Rare hurricane warnings are up in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and parts of Newfoundland, Canada.

Environment Canada is telling residents of these areas to be prepared for winds exceeding 100 mph in some spots, with the risk of structural damage. Serious flooding, storm surge, coastal erosion are all in play as Fiona races northward toward Canada tonight and into tomorrow. 

One good way to measure a storm's strength is to look at how low the air pressure is at the storm's center.  Fiona has the potential to be the strongest storm in history to  hit anywhere in Canada, if you measure by central air pressure. Some forecasts have Fiona's air pressure at 930 millibars when it makes landfall in eastern Nova Scotia tomorrow\. The record strongest storm in Canada had a central air pressure of 940 millibars.

Fiona, as it heads north, will be gradually turning from a tropical system to a non-tropical low. Which means it will expand in size to engulf a large area.  High wind warnings extend as far west as Down East Maine. 

THE NEXT ONE

A tropical depression  has formed in the Central Caribbean Sea, as expected. This is one to watch, because there's a high chance it will eventually turn into a hurricane. It also has a strong chance of eventually hitting the United States.

We just don't know where yet.  If it does hit the U.S., the best I can narrow it down to is anywhere between Houston and Florida. Or possibly the Southeastern U.S.  As the storm develops, forecasters will begin to be able to narrow down the risk zone. 

This Isn't Exactly Turning Out To Be The Sunniest September

Skies cleared suddenly over Richmond, Vermont Wednesday
after a temperature inversion suddenly lifted. It was almost 
completely overcast ten minutes before this photo was
taken. More clouds began arriving a couple hours later
as the next system kept our rather cloudy 
September going. 

 Septembers in Vermont often bring us long strings of sunny, mellow pleasant days.

This hasn't been one of those Septembers, as you probably guessed. 

We've certainly had nice, bright days this month, but we've also endured strings of cloudy, sometimes downright gloomy days. 

It's just the luck of the draw, I guess. We've been victimized by stalled or nearly stalled weather fronts at least three times this month.  Frequent storm systems have also been able to take advantage of plenty of moisture working its way up toward us from the Gulf of Mexico. 

I guess you can find the beauty in rain, overcast and fog. The spookiness and darkness of it all is pretty interesting, in my view. I put a video up, which you can see at the bottom of the post, that sort of embraced the rain, fog and dreariness we dealt with this past Sunday and Monday. 

Today dawned with another round of rain and scattered downpours. Though we'll see glimpses of sun today, a cold front will also bring scattered showers and plunging temperatures this afternoon.  

Some sun will break through Friday, but we'll have quite a chill in the air. We'll actually have a rather sunny, though not completely clear weekend before another long stretch of cloudiness takes over.

I don't really have statistics on how this September ranks in terms of cloudiness compared to other Septembers.  How do you define a cloudy day, anyway? Does it have to feature a solid overcast, or could you get an hour or two with a few small breaks in the clouds? Is a high, thin overcast in which the sun can filter through a little bit truly a cloudy day? 

Yeah, it's subjective. 

To me, I'd register this year as a cloudier than average September. Which is contrary to earlier long range forecasts for the month which predicted warmer and drier than average weather. 

Early next week, another trough of low pressure will linger nearby, creating another three days in a row or so of cloudy, showery weather. 

The cloudiness we've seen this month is a prelude to what normally happens in late autumn in Vermont By November, we can expect near constant gloom.  Sorry I'm not cheering you up there.

Part of the problem with late autumn is you get inversions, which is a layer of warm air atop cooler air. This will often leave us sulking under a low overcast. The tops of the mountains poke up above these clouds into sunshine, but the rest of us are stuck under the gloom.

This actually happened during the first half of Wednesday. An inversion kept low clouds, fog and drizzle going through midday. Again, another prelude to late fall. The low overcast persisted in Vermont until increasing south winds abruptly scoured all this out. 

Of course, the south winds were announcing the arrival of the new weather system that came through last night and this morning. The sunshine in Vermont was short lived as clouds swept in during the late afternoon and evening. 

It's the story of this September, I guess. 

Video. If you don't see an image below click on this link to view. Otherwise, click on the image below to watch.  

Yeah, Despite Appearances, It's Fall, So I Saw A Five Letter "F" Word

A warm, summer-like sunset Saturday in St. Albans, Vermont
Sorry about the telephone pole, I couldn't get a good
angle to avoid the damn thing. 

Amid the warmth of a summery September Saturday evening, I almost choked on a word a South Burlington National Weather Service meteorologist dared to write.  

That word was "frost."

Before you panic, what they were saying is there is the risk of frost late in the upcoming week, but only in the coldest hollows of Vermont and surrounding areas. The vast majority of us have nothing to worry about. 

At least not yet. 

The fact is, starting about now, at least historically, it can frost and freeze anywhere in Vermont about now, except along the immediate shores of Lake Champlain.

However, Vermont Septembers over the past decade or two have been warmer than in the past, thanks to climate change. Summer lasts longer than they used to, but the inevitable cooler weather of autumn still arrives this month. 

Actually, so far this month, Burlington's temperature has been close to normal. But this is the new normal. It's based on the average temperatures over the past 30 years. But that 30 years encompasses the start of the real effects of climate change. 

Prior to say, 1990, this September so far would be regarded as on the warm side. 

Overall, except for a brief period late this week, the trend of warm Septembers will continue this year.

On Saturday, the high temperature in Burlington was 85 degrees. Certainly not record warmth, but still warmer than even the "new" normal. 

No guarantees, but Saturday might well end up as the warmest day until next spring. I hope you enjoyed it. 

It'll still be at least warmish at least into Tuesday, but not as toasty as it was Saturday.  Clouds tend to keep temperatures down a bit. 

A slow moving storm system was starting to throw high clouds into Vermont Saturday evening. The clouds will thicken up on today, and there might even be a sprinkle or two. But some sun will break through as well, and it will be warm for September. Plan on upper 70s to near 80.

After a warm, and vaguely humid Sunday night, it's more of the same on Monday as that storm system slowly creeps towards us. At this point it looks largely cloudy on Monday, with a low chance of showers, and it'll still be warm.

Tuesday will be our rainy day, and we still need it. Not sure where the heaviest rain will set up, but current forecasts favor northern Vermont. Up to an inch of rain could come down, which would be nice.  

The storm will propel a couple of cold fronts through here, and by Thursday, you'll know it's autumn, at least temporarily. 

It'll be blustery, partly cloudy, maybe mostly cloudy, and we'll be lucky to get out of the mid 60s. Thursday night is when that "F" word comes into play.

We'll see a typical autumn scenario. Skies will clear Thursday evening, winds will slacken, and temperatures will drop. Pretty much all of us will get down into the 40s. Some of the relatively cooler places could see upper 30s, but no frost. But the cold hollows are indeed under the gun. 

This won't be an unusual cold spell by September standards. But we've gotten so used to a never ending summer, that it might come as a shock. 

Cheer up, though, if you're not ready for this. It looks like this will be a quick shot of chilly air, and we'll bounce back up above normal after a couple days. 

We'll have very few days that feel purely like summer until, well, next summer. But it does look like we're not completely done with beach weather yet.