Cool Summer Blast Of Air Relieves Us From Heat, New Weather Pattern Could Keep That Going

Storm damage in Swanton Thursday. The cold front that
caused isolated wind damage in Vermont has
introduced radically cooler, drier air into the state,
a welcome change from recent heat, humidity 

 The expected cold front came through last night as expected, and we woke up to refreshing air

The humidity is gone and we can actually go outside again. 

We lucked out with the severe weather, too.  The thunderstorms didn't really get that bad until they reached Quebec and western Maine. There were tornado warnings in Maine, and damage from those storms will be investigated for possible actual tornadoes,

Flash flooding and wind damage was reported in Quebec, too.

There were only a small handful of minor damage reports in Vermont. Perhaps the worst was a collapsed tree I encountered in Swanton that took down some wires and pulled some siding off a house. Elsewhere, a couple other trees and branches fell in Swanton and Alburgh.  Another tree fell in Royalton. That is apparently it.

Before the storms, we did end up making it to 92 degrees in Burlington Thursday, which gives us more hot weather statistics to chew on.

A heat wave in Burlington is considered three days in a row with 90 or above, so we did that. This is the sixth consecutive year with an official heat wave in Burlington. That ties the record with 1944-49 for the most consecutive years with heat waves. 

It's now been 90 degrees ten times in Burlington so far this year.  We're now up to six consecutive year with ten or more 90 degree days. Before this, there had never been more than four consecutive years with that many 90 degree days,  bad in 1946-1949

WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE

The "heat dome" strong high pressure that created hot weather in the United States, was in the eastern United States, making it easy to get hot up here in Vermont. 

That heat dome looks like it is slowly migrating to the middle of the United States and showing signs of strengthening. That change indicates large parts of the U.S. are in for brutal and long lasting heat.

But likely not for us in Vermont, though it sort of depends upon  how this thing sets up. Most of the time, when the heat dome is in the middle of the nation, it sets up a northwest flow here in New England. 

Usually, that means some squirts of warm, humid air keep trying to work in and often briefly succeed, But that northwest flow also brings in occasional cold fronts that cut that hot air off at the pass.

In the coming week or two or three, we'll need to see to what extent that northwest flow develops. If some lingering high pressure stays in the East, the cold fronts won't zoom through as much and won't bring lots of refreshing air. 

If the heat dome really centers itself over, say the Great Plains, that means the second half of July here in Vermont could be a fair amount cooler than the first.   

The drawback to all this is the northern periphery of these heat domes often have frequent clusters of strong storms and heavy rain. That seems to be inevitable in the coming week or two in the northern Plains and maybe Great Lakes. I'm sure we'll continue to hear of severe weather and flash flooding in those areas of the nation. 

For us here in New England, the storm prospects over the next couple of weeks are iffy. 

 If the northwest flow is steep, the strong storms and heavy rains will pass us by to the south and west, hitting the southeastern Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic States. We'd be cut off from access to the really humid air and just get lighter showers and thunderstorms as the cold front goes by.

If the northwest flow is more westerly than north, we could share in these heavy bouts of rain storms. Again, we won't 'know until we're until right before each batch of storms develops. All we can do is forecast the short term, which I've got next.

MUCH COOLER FEW DAYS

The cold front that came through last night had an autumnal feel. It was accompanied and followed by gusty winds, which is uncharacteristic of a July front.

Any lingering winds this morning will quickly diminish for a gorgeous day. We'll enjoy sunshine, much cooler highs in the 70s and very low humidity. Dew points will keep crashing into the 40s, which is rock bottom for July. 

Overnight, actual temperatures across Vermont will drop into the very comfortable 50s.  Cooler hollows will be in the 40s. In cold spot Saranac Lake, New York, the forecast low Saturday morning is 39 degrees.

We'll briefly have some return flow of warmer air Saturday. The humidity will stay low, but highs should get into the low 80s in most places across Vermont.  

But a reinforcing cold front is on its way. A weak storm should pass over or near Vermont later Saturday night. Some light rainfall is quite likely. If Burlington sees at least a trace of rain Saturday night, which is almost certain, we will have had 31 consecutive weekends with precipitation, a new record. 

Temperatures will stay cool-ish Sunday then even chillier air will really flood in. Monday will feel downright autumnal. Highs Monday will only be in the 65 to 72 degree range for most of us. Monday night, temperatures for much of Vermont could reach the 40s. 

This could end up being the strongest July cool spell in a decade. By historical standards, this won't be unusual at all but recent Julys have been unusually warm, thanks in large part to climate change. So it will seem odd. 

Tuesday will be on the cool side, too, but it will warm back up and turn more humid again as the week wears on. It probably won't be as bad as recent days, but it will feel like summer again. 

Beyond the end of next week, who knows?

 

Summer To Arrive In Vermont Just In Time For Autumn

Now that summer is ending, summer weather looks
like it will finally arrive for September. Odds
strongly favor warmer than normal weather here
in the opening week of the new month, and 
probably beyond. 

 True to form, more rain fell on Vermont today, and in Addison County, it was heavy enough this morning to prompt a flood warning in part of the county. 

So far, I haven't seen any confirmed reports of flooding in that county, and the rain there has tapered off for now. 

But that's the story of the entire summer of 2023, as we well know. We've had repeated storms, floods and seemingly endless rain.  It hasn't been much of a summer, really. 

Now, we're coming up on the Labor Day weekend, which is the unofficial close of summer. And wouldn't you know, it's beginning to look like that will mark the start of an extended period of very warm to hot and dry summer weather. 

Go figure. 

Most of the extended forecasts put a big ridge of warm high pressure over the eastern United States. Hot, humid, but mostly rain-free weather looks like it wants to pour into the Northeast, including Vermont next week.

The heavier rains that hit central and southern Vermont this morning were departing by late morning, but scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon ahead of one last weather front. A few storms could be strong-ish, but it doesn't look like we'll have anything severe. And the storms will be hit and miss. Some of us will get wet again, some of us won't.

Thursday will be dry, sunny and on the cool side for this time of year, but nothing that remarkable. (Earlier forecasts had called for a true taste of autumn with downright chilly temperatures, but computer models have really backed off on that idea).

So expect highs in the 60s too around 70 Thursday, and a cool Friday morning. 

Then, summer arrives! Yay! In September. 

It's unclear just how hot it will get or how long it will last. It's possible the warmer valleys in Vermont could touch 90 degrees next week, but that's iffy. It's harder to reach 90 in September than it is in July and August, as normally we should be cooling down into autumn. 

It's possible that weak cold fronts could occasionally temper the heat beyond midweek, but that's unknown, too. Generally, forecasts call for above normal temperatures well into second week of September.

Also, for a change, odds somewhat favor below normal rainfall through the first week of September and probably a little beyond that. 

Vermont, As Advertised Finally Free Of Rain/Humidity Hell

Water droplets glisten on day lilies Saturday evening
in St. Albans, Vermont after it finally stopped
raining. A drier weather pattern begins today. 

At our house in St. Albans, Vermont last night, we left the doors open, and just the screen shut overnight on the sliding glass doors that lead from our living room to the outdoor deck.  

The result was I awoke this morning to cool, fresh, fragrant air drifting through the house.

 My alarm clock was bird song from outdoors, which wasn't drowned out by the constant hum of the bedroom air conditioner which has been on almost nightly for five weeks. 

I think all Vermonters are relishing in this change in air. The humidity is finally gone! 

SATURDAY RECAP

The transition to better conditions was a little rougher than I thought it would be Saturday. The rain was steadier and heavier for most of us than anticipated. It prompted some scattered flood warnings in Addison County and in the southern Green Mountains between Killington and Okemo.

There was a report of flooding closing roads in Bernardston, Massachusetts, which is right on the Vermont border. 

But, happy to say, I have so far seen no reports of any new major damage. There were probably some minor washouts and high water, but nothing to add substantially to the huge destruction from this month's floods. 

Yesterday's rain brought Montpelier's rainfall to the month to just about a foot which is amazing. Technically, they only have had 11.97 inches of rain,  but I'm calling that a foot. 

Most of the East Coast and Appalachians from central New England south through the Middle Atlantic States weren't so lucky, with major storm damage reported in a number of spots. Widespread flooding was reported in Boston and surrounding communities. 

Washington DC, Baltimore and surrounding areas suffered tons of wind damage as thunderstorm gusts ranged up to 84 mph, as measured at DC's George Washington University Mount Vernon Campus.   In DC, an apartment building lost its roof, and many trees at the Smithsonian National Zoo were toppled. Some of those fallen trees blocked streets.

One person died when a tree fell on a house in Prince Williams County, Virginia.

THE RAIN GRIP IS BROKEN

Back here in Vermont, one big factor that kept the flash flood risk going all month in Vermont was the lack of any real breaks in the rain. Heavy rains hit somewhere in the state pretty much every other day, so soils could not dry out.  

Any heavy rains that did fall would not be able to soak into the already saturated ground and just run off.    Which meant that some downpours that would not be a big deal during most summers would cause flooding and washouts this month.  

Now we'll have a chance to dry out some. 

Today starts that process, as it will be a beauty.  Blue skies, puffy clouds for decorations, very low humidity and temperatures only making it into the 70s.  Get outside and enjoy! 

Aside from the lower humidity, the big break we're getting is a lack of heavy rain until at least Thursday night or Friday. Additionally, we'll have some sunny days with low humidity, which will help dry things out. 

We do have scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for tomorrow, mostly central and south. But they'll move right along so it won't rain much in any one spot. Many places won't see any rain at all. More importantly, there's not that much moisture to work with in the air, so Monday's storms won't be able to generate torrential downpours. 

This all leaves me pretty hopeful that when any potential downpours do reach us in the more humid air expected on Friday, they won't cause any real problems. 

The overall weather pattern continues to feature at least the possibility of cooler air and mostly lower humidity well into August. At least compared to what we dealt with in July.