All Signs Point Toward Severe Weather In Vermont/Eastern U.S/Quebec Today, Nasty Hot Spell Coming

Today's updated severe thunderstorm threat around the
nation. Yellow areas including Vermont, are in a level
two out of five risk zone for severe storms
meaning there will be scattered instances of damaging
winds. There's a level three of five in the
Mid-Atlantic states (orange shading). The risk
of damaging winds is somewhat higher there, 

Those who were looking for thunderstorms in Vermont yesterday ended up coming up empty. 

Most of the storms stayed in New York, with flash flooding out in central and western New York. 

Some showers and storms did venture into far northwest Vermont but petered out rather quickly last evening.

Today is when everybody in a wide swath from southern Quebec down to the Carolinas is under threat from severe storms.  This obviously includes Vermont. 

Not everybody in this vast patch of real estate will see severe storms, of course, but the threat is there. 

This risk in the entire region I outlined includes damaging straight line winds, large hail, downpours torrential enough to set off some flash floods and even a low but not zero risk of tornadoes.

The biggest threat for tornadoes appears to be in the mostly flatlands of southern Quebec, near and south of Montreal. The higher threat of wind damage at the moment seems to be around New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and part of Virginia.

That does not mean Vermont is off the hook of course. We still have all of the above threat in play.

On top of that, another round of storms is possible Saturday night here in the Green Mountain State, followed by a brief, dangerous, very torrid spell of weather.

So let's next get to work planning your stormy day today, at least as things stood this morning. Stay on your toes, because things can change rapidly though the day.

TODAY'S SETUP

A sort of "preview" storm late Wednesday afternoon
looking west from Georgia Vermont. You can see
a column of torrential rain in the distance. Very few
storms in Vermont Wednesday, but they'll be much
more numerous today. 

A batch of showers and brief downpours was moving into mostly, but not exclusively into northwest Vermont as of 8 a.m. It looks like most of those were brushing far northwest parts of the state from St. Albans, north. 

It's so humid with an already unstable atmosphere, that a pop up downpour or thunderstorm could happen randomly almost anywhere in Vermont this morning.

They will be relatively few and far between, but enough so that you'll need to keep your eyes on the skies and be ready to head indoors quickly. Even this morning. 

It'll be interesting to see whether these showers, and lingering clouds behind them that would last most of the morning, will stabilize the atmosphere some and reduce the chances of strong storms later. Or maybe this will form a sort of new temperature boundary across part of Vermont that would enhance the storms that due later. 

There will also be a stalled west to east front across southern Quebec most of today that I think will enhance changing wind directions with height in the atmosphere. That's why I think there could be a tornado or two in southern Quebec. 

Northern Vermont will be on the edge of that, so despite the cloud cover today, the chances of severe storms remains in effect north of Route 2. 

All of Vermont should have plenty of humidity today, and especially places south of Route 2 should get into the mid and upper 80s to near 90 in a few places in the lower Connecticut River Valley. That's one ingredient needed for big storms.

The other storm ingredient is a cold front heading due east across New York State towards us. That will act a bit like a snow plow, providing lift in the atmosphere as it shoves into the muggy air over us. That lift is the rising air currents that lead to towering clouds, i.e thunderstorms.

THE RESULTS

This will be a classic summer severe weather day in Vermont. By that, I mean a few towns - definitely a minority of places in Vermont - will see damaging wind gusts that would take down trees and power lines, and possibly cause a little structural damage.

Most but not all of us will see some sort of thunderstorm today. Some of us will get bullseyed by downpours and a lot of lightning and some wind gusts. A few of us will be on the edge of some of these storms and have only minor effects and not a whole lot of rain.

Another few of us will get nothing at all. People in those towns will wonder what the fuss was about, having endured a humid, but rain-free day. 

I doubt there will be one solid line of storms that comes through. Instead, we're in for short lines and clusters of storms that will keep passing through, mostly between around 2 p.m. this afternoon and 11 p.m tonight. 

I wouldn't expect the storms today to be severe after dark, so we'll say 2 to 8 p.m. is the most likely time for anything severe. 

The other threat from today's storms is flash flooding. The good news is each storm will be moving along at a good clip. That means those torrential downpours won't last long in any particular spot.  They won't have time to put down enough water to cause a flood.

The problems would come if a few unlucky spots get three or four or five rounds of storms instead of just one or two. Then you start running into issues. Flash floods today in Vermont if they happen should be pretty isolated and not cover large areas.

FRIDAY:

Kind of a weird day, but nothing dramatic. The morning will be cool and windy and kind of cloudy, making it almost feel like autumn was in the air. Temperatures before noon should hold in the 60s.  Then, the flow of cool  Canadian air will get most shut off pretty fast. By late afternoon, it should be back in the mid and upper 70s with sharply diminished winds. The sun will have come back out. 

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT

Saturday itself looks like it will be a nice day for a change. We should have quite a bit of sun, with highs peaking within a couple degrees either side of 80 degrees. The humidity should be moderate, so enjoy!

However, we're still looking at the risk of a cluster of storms blasting through overnight Saturday night and early Sunday. We're still not sure exactly where they'll focus, or even whether they will entirely hit Vermont. But there is the risk of a noisy night with thunder and locally torrential downpours if we get hit squarely.

Stay tuned!

THE HEAT

The hot weather will begin to flood in on Sunday. It still looks like a decent beach day, with highs in the 80s to near 90. You'll also notice the  humidity building.

Monday looks like it'll be the worst of it, It now looks like actual high temperatures should hit the mid-90s in many valley locations in Vermont. Combined with the humidity, the heat index will probably be over 100 degrees. 

It'll be a dangerous day for anybody with health issues or those who exert themselves outdoors. Monday's the day to really take it easy, and seek out air conditioning if you can.

Record highs might fall. The current record highs for Monday are 96 degrees in Burlington, 90 in Montpelier and 93 in St. Johnsbury. 

Monday night will be dreadfully hot and stuffy, with lows staying near or above 70 for most of us with stifling humidity. 

Tuesday is now a bit of a wild card, depending on the timing of a cold front. If it comes through early, the heat won't be too bad, especially north.  If it comes in the afternoon, that means it'll uncomfortably hot with a risk of strong storms. If it comes through in the evening, then Tuesday will be just as bad as Monday.

We'll keep an eye on that.

The front will have come through by Wednesday, but should linger close by, meaning we'll remain at risk for showers and maybe storms later into next week too. It should actually stay near to a little warmer than average even behind the cold front that will end the heat wave