Brief Vermont Saturday Evening Storm Update: Chances Increase Of Wild Early Morning Storms

From weather.us this is just one of many possible ways
weather radar will look like in Vermont at 3 a.m. Monday.
Some forecasts have ferocious storms coming through
Vermont early Sunday while others depict nothing
too serious. We won't know which it is until storms
are right on our doorstep.

 Still no guarantees as of early this evening of what kind of storminess Vermont and surrounding areas will see in the hours before dawn Sunday.  

But chances appear to have increased that some loud - and maybe dangerous - storms might come through. Especially in the northern half of the state.

If all this happens, the likeliest time for this to hit is between 2 and 7 a.m. Sunday. 

Hopefully this will turn out to be a somewhat decaying batch of storms, and we either just get some rain, or maybe some loud storms and downpours but nothing worse than lost sleep. 

But this type of situation can be volatile.  A complex of storms riding along the northern edge of a heat wave in the early morning hours has the potential to produce some violent storms.  

That sort of thing happened along the northern edge of a record-breaking heat wave in July, 1995 when a violent derecho crossed out of Canada, through the Adirondacks into southern Vermont and other parts of eastern New York and New England,  

We really won't know until whether we'll have damaging thunderstorms until they are on our doorstep around or just after midnight. Indications early this evening are leaning a little more toward the idea of strong post-midnight Vermont storms.

Thankfully, some - but not all -  of those early indications hint that maybe the storms might be weakening some on approach to Vermont. Again, not guaranteed, but something to watch. 

Some forecast models depict some pretty ferocious thunderstorms coming through in the wee hours. Other models really show nothing special overnight and into Sunday morning. Take your pick I guess. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has ticked up the threat level from marginal (storm level risk one out of five to slight (threat level two out of five) in the northwestern two thirds of Vermont. 

This type of weather situation is probably the most difficult for meteorologists to accurately forecast, even just a few hours ahead of the event. 

If there are any bad storms the biggest problem would be destructive straight line winds. Large hail could also come down with a couple of these. 

Again, there's no guarantee we'll have severe storms, but just in case, secure loose outdoor objects this evening or bring them indoors.  If you're camping out in the woods or know somebody who is, let them know to have a way to get warnings so they can scoot to a sturdy shelter. Falling trees while camping is no joke. Four campers died in the Adirondacks in the July, 1995 derecho.

I'd have a weather radio or some sort of phone in your bedroom overnight to warn you if a particularly intense thunderstorm is headed your way. You'll want to know because if it's a worst case scenario, you'd want to get into the basement or interior room away from windows.

The absolute worst case scenario would be like July, 1995 with a few towns gusting to  70 to 90 mph. That's highly unlikely early Sunday, but there's a non-zero chance of it. Better safe than sorry! 

 After that, of course the heat arrives, A heat advisory is up for most of Vermont for heat indexes of up to 102 degrees on Monday and Tuesday. The Champlain Valley is under a more dire and for Vermont rare extreme heat warning is in effect Monday and Tuesday for a heat index of around 105 degrees.  

I'll have more on this tomorrow after we get through the potential storms later tonight.