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| NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has much of the eastern U.S. including all of Vermont in a slight risk zone (yellow shading) for severe storms Thursday. |
The word "interesting" when describing weather forecasts is seldom welcome, as that usually spells trouble. And sure enough, the weather might complicate your life over the next few days.
We have high humidity, the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms, a bit of a flash flood risk (again!), and eventually some dangerous summer heat.
Tomorrow and next Monday and Tuesday are the biggest high alert days.. But, as we usually do, let's walk you through day by day, as every day for at least the next six has something noteworthy to offer us.
TODAY
The humid air has arrived on schedule. You might have noticed your bedroom getting a bit stuffy overnight.
The high humidity, combined with expected high temperatures in the low to mid 80s, should be enough to set off some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
They could happen anywhere. There's were already a batch of showers passing through far southern Vermont early this morning. But the storms are most likely this afternoon and early evening in the northwestern third of Vermont and over northern New York.
Few, if any of these storms will get exceptionally strong or severe. But one or two of these storms could provide some gusty winds and heavy downpours. The forward motion of these storms will be kinda lame, so a couple spots in northwestern Vermont could really get dumped on.
There's no risk of widespread flash flooding or anything like that, but those one or two spots, especially north of Route 2 and west of the Green Mountain, might (or might not!) have a little problem with driveway and back road washouts, that kind of thing.
Some places will avoid rain altogether today. Classic hit and miss.
THURSDAY
This is a higher risk day. The high humidity will still be in place. Sunshine in the morning and early afternoon should boost temperatures into the mid or even upper 80s. A cold front will be approaching to make the air more unstable.
Winds aloft will become stronger, and change directions with height. Those are all ingredients to set off severe thunderstorms.
For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has all of Vermont under a slight risk of severe storms on Thursday. That's a level two out of five on the danger scale. It means there should be some scattered severe thunderstorms.
As is almost always the case with this type of summer storm situation, only a small minority of us Vermonters will experience a severe storm. Most of us will get at least some rain and hear thunder, and many of us should get at least a brief downpour.
It's just those few spots that will get nailed. It's impossible to tell more than a half hour to an hour in advance who gets the most dangerous storms. So you'll need to have a weather radio or some other source ready tomorrow to get warnings and advisories.
I'd also skip boating around Lake Champlain or hiking to the summits Thursday afternoon.
The storms tomorrow will come at us either as relatively short lines of big storms or supercells. The biggest threat is from damaging straight line winds. Large hail is pretty unlikely, but still possible. There's also a very low, but not zero chance of a brief spin up tornado mixed in there.
The other threat is flash flooding. Any flooding we do get - if we get any - will be pretty isolated. Most places should be fine.
However, the rain will be absolutely torrential in some of Thursday's storms. Luckily, the storms will be moving right along, so they won't linger over one spot for too long to really flood things out. But if you get squarely hit by a big supercell, or microburst; or if two or more lines of storms hit you in rapid succession, there could be a local flash flood problem or too.
The bottom line is NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has us in a low level marginal risk zone for localized flash floods
FRIDAY
We get a break in the action. It'll be somewhat cooler and less humid since the cold front will have gone through. There could be some lingering showers or garden variety thunderstorms scattered around here or there in the afternoon, especially north, but nothing scary.
SATURDAY
There's an odd bit of uncertainty in Saturday's forecast. The strong ridge of high pressure will be beginning to build toward us. That's what will set us up for next week's heat.
We have to watch out for something called a ridge roller Saturday or Saturday night.. These are clusters of thunderstorms that rotate around the northern edge of a developing ridge of hot high pressure. They'd come in from the Midwest and then head southeastward, possibly in this case through northern New York and northern New England.
These things are super hard to predict three days in advance. Computer models are pretty insistent there will be a "ridge roller" but we don't know where it will go. Maybe through us, maybe across Quebec, maybe to our southwest toward western New York and Pennsylvania. Or maybe it won't happen at all.
Ridge rollers can be pretty benign, and almost unnoticeable, or they could contain severe thunderstorms and flash floods. This is just something to keep an eye on. We'll monitor later forecasts.
SUNDAY
You'll start to notice the heat and humidity building up. It'll be a decent beach day, with a fair amount of sun and highs well into the 80s. Hottest spots could flirt with 90.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY
Looking hot, with a very good chance of temperatures going over 90 degrees in many spots in Vermont. The humidity will be sky high. Since this will start on Sunday, we'll have three days of this kind of weather. Which can wear on people after awhile and become dangerous. Especially for the elderly and people with health problems.
The humidity will ensure that nights will stay very warm and muggy, so you won't get any relief after dark. If there are people in your life who you worry about in this kind of weather, it would be a good idea to check up on them early next week. Or better yet, "kidnap" them and take them to a chilly movie matinee, a nice cool air conditioned restaurant or shopping center or something.
BEYOND TUESDAY
It looks like a cold front will cool things down somewhat by Wednesday. It will be no means get "cold" after the cold front, but it should at least feel more reasonable out there.
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