Forecast Bust: Vermont Storms Not Terrible. But The Heat Will Be

A downpour and some wind with a thunderstorm in
St. Albans, Vermont early this morning. Storms 
weren't as bad as feared, but the heat wave 
will be as bad as feared. 

 Last night and this morning in Vermont was the kind of forecast meteorologist prefer to get wrong. And the forecast was mostly wrong. 

 Because it turns out nothing really bad happened early this morning. Which is a good thing, since we didn't endure any destructive thunderstorms, as feared.  

WRONG FORECAST

Many - but not all - forecast models suggested a band of some really, really serious storms would come through before dawn this  morning.. 

This raised worries that  destructive winds would hit in the wee hours of Sunday morning, a time of day when people would most likely get caught off guard. 

This was always a forecast that had a high bust potential, as storm complexes like the one from this morning that ride along the edges of a heat wave are always volatile and difficult to predict.   

Sometime they can get violent and scary. Other times they sort of turn "meh." Vermont was definitely in the "meh" category with this one.  It appears the right mix of heat, humidity and atmospheric instability didn't quite line up, so we got a lucky break with no big storms.  

I think had the soupy, thick, hot air gotten hear sooner, the storms early today would have been much worse than they turned out to be. 

The forecast wasn't entirely wrong. Showers and thunderstorms did move southeastward from Ontario and Quebec into New York and northern New England between midnight and a few hours after dawn today.

A few of the storms seemed to be on the strongish-side, mostly in New York.  There were widespread power outages is central and western New York early today. A severe thunderstorm warning was issued at around 1:30 am for the northwest corner of New York, though I don't know whether any damage ultimately resulted. 

 In Vermont, wind, rain and lightning had created about 3,000 power outages in the state as of 7:15 a.m.

There were a few heavy downpours in the Green Mountain State, which is good for the garden plants, since they're going to be subjected to horribly  intense sun and heat over the next couple days,

The forecast for last night's storms might have been shaky, but the heat forecast appears rock solid. Let's get into it .

TODAY/TONIGHT

The showers and storms were slowly subsiding as of 7 a.m. today. How hot we get today depends upon how fast the skies clear. We do know it will be uncomfortable. The humidity is here and will only intensify as the day goes on.

If it stays cloudy most of the day, actual temperatures may only reach the low 80s. In low elevations that clear up fast, it could get close to 90 degrees. Tonight will be oppressively stuffy and muggy

MONDAY

No change to the  hot, hot, hot forecast. Actual temperatures across Vermont - and from Dakotas and Minnesota all the way to the East Coast - will be well into the 90s.

Here in Vermont, record high temperatures are still in the cards. The current record high for Monday in Burlington is 96 degrees set in 2020.  That's higher that most record highs in June, but it looks like we have a shot of beating that.  

If it gets to 98 degrees in Burlington, as many forecasts suggest, that would make Monday the second hottest June day on record, in data going back to the 1880s.

Montpelier is expecting a Monday high of 94 degrees, which would break the old record of 90 degrees set in the hot summer of 1975. The record high in St. Johnsbury of 93 degrees tomorrow is also in deep jeopardy.

Monday (and Tuesday) will both be days to take it easy. This is no joke, the combination of heat and humidity we'll be seeing is dangerous  It's rare to see an extreme heat warning in Vermont, but that's in effect for the Champlain Valley Monday and Tuesday. The rest of Vermont is under a heat advisory.

The heat/humidity combo will make it feel like it's between 100 and 105 degrees out there.

TUESDAY

Pretty much as bad as Monday. It'll be another day with temperatures in the 90s with stifling humidity

 It might be a couple degrees "cooler" than Monday in the north (maybe low 90s) as a cold front starts approaching from  Quebec. Southeastern Vermont might actually be a tad hotter than Monday. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple Vermont towns in the lower Connecticut Valley hit 100 degrees.

 Usually a cold front bumping into extreme hot, humid air during the peak heating of the day, like what will happen on Tuesday is a recipe for lots of severe thunderstorms. 

But that does not appear to be the case this time. We might get some storms, especially north, but so far it looks like the chances of severe weather are on the low side. That could change as we get more data, but so far I'm pretty relaxed about it. 

In this case, the upper atmosphere won't cool off much as the front approaches. The difference between hot surface and chilly air aloft usually get big storms going. That ingredient will be missing. Also, though it will be humid down here, the air several thousand feet up on Tuesday will be on the dry side. That would also discourage storms.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

It's back to the weather pattern we've had most of June, really. The cold front will stall not far to the south, so there will be frequent chances of showers during the week and into the weekend. As usual, the greatest chance of this will be in southern Vermont. Wednesday looks to be the driest day of the bunch. 

Temperatures will be near normal, certainly not hot.  Expect highs Wednesday into the weekend to be in the 70s to near 80 with overnight temperatures in the 50s and low 60s. Pretty tame after some bumpy June weather in Vermont.