A Storm Named Isaias Could Help With Drought For 2nd Time In Six Years

Satellite view this afternoon of Tropical Storm 
Isaias gaining strength in the Gulf of Mexico

 On August 4, 2020, Tropical Storm Isaias went directly over Vermont, dumping heavy rain that alleviated a developing drought that hot summer. 

Another storm named Isaias now has a chance at giving Vermont some beneficial rain. But it's still a big if as to whether we actually get a lot of rain from the storm. 

Tropical Storm Isaias was strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. It's not the same storm as the one six years ago, of course. 

The National Hurricane Center recycles tropical storm and hurricane names every sixth year. They only retire hurricane names if they caused extreme damage. Think Helene, Dorian, Ike and Ian. 

The NHC didn't retire the Isaias name, even though the 2020 version of it caused about $5 billion in damage up and down the East Coast, and in the Bahamas. 

So we have the new Isaias. 

Until now, tropical storms this year have been ripped apart quickly by strong upper level winds this year before they could develop. Thank El Nino for that. 

However, Isaias found a sweet spot in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico without much in the way of those strong upper level winds. The water temperatures there is near record hot, so there's a lot of fuel for this thing.  

By late this afternoon, Tropical Storm Isaias had top winds of 65 mph, up from 40 mph this morning.  It should rapid strengthen to a hurricane - the first one of the season.   

As it heads north, it'll start to weaken as those El Nino upper level winds behind to chew away at Isaias's strength. By Friday evening, the storm should come ashore somewhere around Mobile, Alabama or the far western end of the Florida Panhandle.

After coming ashore, Isaias will rapidly fall apart, as all hurricanes after making landfall. 

Eventually, the remnants of Isaias will probably move through the central Appalachians and onto into the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast Coast. 

The question is, how far north will the Isaias remnants go? Unlike the 2020 version, we know there won't be a huge amount of rain. But if the path of that remnant storm is just right, at least parts of Vermont could get a highly welcome inch or two of rain. 

If  2026 Isaias affects Vermont, it won't have much wind with it.  After all, this week's Isaias will have long since stopped being a tropical storm. 

We have a shot at moderate amounts of rain. Maybe. 

The 2020 Isaias was still a tropical storm on the evening of August 4. At 8 p.m. that day, we had the rare experience of a tropical storm centered in Vermont - precisely five miles north-northwest of Rutland. 

The Isaias of six years ago cut power to 19,000 homes and businesses.  A couple tornado warnings were issued in far southern Vermont, but no twisters are known to have touched down.

Rainfall totals included figures like 3.42 inches in Randolph and 3.01 in Waitsfield. Burlington had 2.5 inches of rain.  Since conditions were so dry before the storm, Vermont suffered no flooding. 

If - and that's a big if - the 2026 Isaias affects Vermont, it won't be as dramatic as the storm six years ago.