A Storm Named Isaias Could Help With Drought For 2nd Time In Six Years

Satellite view this afternoon of Tropical Storm 
Isaias gaining strength in the Gulf of Mexico

 On August 4, 2020, Tropical Storm Isaias went directly over Vermont, dumping heavy rain that alleviated a developing drought that hot summer. 

Another storm named Isaias now has a chance at giving Vermont some beneficial rain. But it's still a big if as to whether we actually get a lot of rain from the storm. 

Tropical Storm Isaias was strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. It's not the same storm as the one six years ago, of course. 

The National Hurricane Center recycles tropical storm and hurricane names every sixth year. They only retire hurricane names if they caused extreme damage. Think Helene, Dorian, Ike and Ian. 

The NHC didn't retire the Isaias name, even though the 2020 version of it caused about $5 billion in damage up and down the East Coast, and in the Bahamas. 

So we have the new Isaias. 

Until now, tropical storms this year have been ripped apart quickly by strong upper level winds this year before they could develop. Thank El Nino for that. 

However, Isaias found a sweet spot in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico without much in the way of those strong upper level winds. The water temperatures there is near record hot, so there's a lot of fuel for this thing.  

By late this afternoon, Tropical Storm Isaias had top winds of 65 mph, up from 40 mph this morning.  It should rapid strengthen to a hurricane - the first one of the season.   

As it heads north, it'll start to weaken as those El Nino upper level winds behind to chew away at Isaias's strength. By Friday evening, the storm should come ashore somewhere around Mobile, Alabama or the far western end of the Florida Panhandle.

After coming ashore, Isaias will rapidly fall apart, as all hurricanes after making landfall. 

Eventually, the remnants of Isaias will probably move through the central Appalachians and onto into the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast Coast. 

The question is, how far north will the Isaias remnants go? Unlike the 2020 version, we know there won't be a huge amount of rain. But if the path of that remnant storm is just right, at least parts of Vermont could get a highly welcome inch or two of rain. 

If  2026 Isaias affects Vermont, it won't have much wind with it.  After all, this week's Isaias will have long since stopped being a tropical storm. 

We have a shot at moderate amounts of rain. Maybe. 

The 2020 Isaias was still a tropical storm on the evening of August 4. At 8 p.m. that day, we had the rare experience of a tropical storm centered in Vermont - precisely five miles north-northwest of Rutland. 

The Isaias of six years ago cut power to 19,000 homes and businesses.  A couple tornado warnings were issued in far southern Vermont, but no twisters are known to have touched down.

Rainfall totals included figures like 3.42 inches in Randolph and 3.01 in Waitsfield. Burlington had 2.5 inches of rain.  Since conditions were so dry before the storm, Vermont suffered no flooding. 

If - and that's a big if - the 2026 Isaias affects Vermont, it won't be as dramatic as the storm six years ago.  

Fires, Snowstorms, Tornadoes, High Winds And Hail: But Not For Us In Vermont

It's getting to be that time of year. Widespread severe
weather possible in the middle of the nation today.
especially in Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma. 

 The nation is getting into a typical, wild spring weather pattern, which brings a huge mix of weather, sometimes dangerous stuff. March and April can be pretty scary sometimes.  

Right on schedule, depending on where you were Wednesday, you saw tornadoes, large hail, wildfires, high winds, and snowstorms. 

Arguably, the most exciting weather Monday was a least one tornado in Kansas and some large, surely damaging hail hitting populated areas around Kansas City. 

Shawnee, a western suburb of Kansas City, reported baseball sized hail.  A picturesque dusk tornado caused some damage southwest of Topeka. 

The tornado and severe thunderstorm threat will actually worsen today. Tornadoes are possible today through a broad stretch of the Mississippi Valley, especially in Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma. 

Meanwhile, the Denver area is having one of its biggest snowstorms in years. Most of the major highway mountain passes west of Denver are closed because as much as three feet of snow is expected in those areas. Denver itself is forecast to receive 10 to 18 inches of heavy, wet snow, with amounts closer to two feet in the western suburbs. 

On top of all that, wildfires burned in parts of Oklahoma and Texas Wednesday. Today, most of California is bracing for high winds. 

So, is all this awfulness coming to the Green Mountain State?

The short answer is no, with details below. 

VERMONT

We will blessedly miss out on the big headline weather here in Vermont. Unsettled, yes but nothing scary in the near future. 

It's going to be quite warm again today, in what has been an incredibly warm month. If March stopped now, it would be a tie for the fourth warmest March on record in Burlington.  You'd think we'd be in line for having one of the top few warmest Marches on record, since the second half of the month is usually quite a bit warmer than the beginning days.   

By late afternoon Wednesday, warm weather had melted
most of Sunday and Monday's snow off my
St. Albans, Vermont yard. 

That might end up being true, but it's not a slam dunk. That's because the weather pattern is changing toward a cooler one. 

Not ridiculously cold, but cooler than it's been.  The pattern shift could drive down the average temperature for the month. 

Before we get there, we have some mild weather to get through. Today will get into the 50s in many areas once again. That's a good 10 to 15 degrees warmer than average for this time of year. 

Tonight and early tomorrow, it looks like a decent slug of rain will come through. Most of us should see somewhere in the neighborhood of a half inch of rain. That's enough to keep waterways high and mud season going full steam ahead. But it won't be enough to set off any flooding.

It'll stay mild-ish through the weekend, with more showers due Sunday. Again, not a blinding downpour, just showers.

The Sunday showers will come along with a cold front that will introduce our chillier air.  High temperatures should hold in the 30s for at least the first half of next week, and possibly beyond. Lows will be in the upper teens and low 20s.

That's not awful for March, but it's cooler than we've gotten used to. We'll probably also have a little snow mixed in there as well. But again, nothing crazy. 

And remember that completely non-sensical American weather model I referred to yesterday? The one that depicted a gigantic storm along the East Coast around March 26? Yeah, the latest run shows weak low pressure and scattered mostly light rains in the East that day. 

Told ya!