Wild Weather Coming To Much Of Nation, But Boring Weather Here In Vermont. Boring Is A Good Thing

Lightning set a grove of palm trees ablaze yesterday
outside of San Diego,  California. It was part of an
opening salvo of volatile weather expected across
much of the U.S. in coming days. Here in
Vermont, the weather will stay blissfully boring

 On Tuesday, two tornadoes appeared in of all places near Fresno, California. 

It was part of some storminess that socked California with bursts of heavy rain, thunderstorms and wind. Lightning strikes set a grove of palm trees on fire not far from San Diego, burning about 100 of the trees in a spectacular if very bizarre fire.  

A tornado and strong thunderstorms in California make me nervous. Especially during severe weather and tornado season. 

Forecasters are already calling for a tornado and storm outbreak in the coming days in  the Plains states. The Fresno tornado makes it seem all the more likely. 

It's all part of a weather pattern that's pretty common this time of year. Strong southwest winds bring dry air into the western Plains and eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains. Humid southeast winds come into the southern Plains and Midwest from the Gulf of Mexico.  Cool air comes in from the northern Plains. That sets up the volatile weather situation. 

Meanwhile this weather pattern brings a relatively gentle northwest flow of air to New England. The result is relatively cool, and definitely boring weather. More details on Vermont's weather further down in this post, but first, the set-up:

ROUGH WEATHER

The rough weather will begin today with a widespread fire hazard across a huge area of the eastern Rockies and western Plains as those dry southwest winds blow in from the Desert Southwest. The main area of worry today is in northern New Mexico, northwest Texas, eastern Colorado, eastern Wyoming and parts of South Dakota. 

The Southeastern United States has also endured wildfires amidst their drought and that will continue today.   

In terms of severe weather, we've already had at least one rough episode this month. At least 110 tornadoes were reported in the Midwest on April 17,  

The expected severe weather begins modestly today with a few severe storms possible in a narrow corridor in the Central Plains, 

Tomorrow, severe thunderstorms, a few with gorilla hail and a few tornadoes are forecast in the central Plains. Gorilla hail, for the uninitiated, does not involve primates, unless a human is hit with one of those scary hailstones.  Gorilla hail  are really, really, really big hailstones.  On Friday, severe thunderstorms will focus on Arkansas.

Forecasters are especially worried about areas around Oklahoma and Kansas. It's not possible to be sure this far in advance, but there could be a very nasty tornado outbreak over the weekend. Especially on Sunday. Stay tuned.

VERMONT FORECAST

All that rough weather in the Plains is not going to bother us here.  This type of weather pattern either shears apart and destroys those storm systems as they try to approach us. Or they shunt them down to our south.  

So our weather gets boring. In this case, boring is very good. No drama like we've had in recent days. No tornadoes. No hail. No snow. No hard freezes. No heavy rain. Just cool, quiet spring weather 

It'll be cool today through Friday, with highs within a few degrees of 50 today and in the low 50s tomorrow and Friday. We should be in the upper 50s this time of year. So, a bit chilly, but nothing unreasonable like we had earlier this week. 

The only thing we really have to worry about in the next few days is brush fires. It still hasn't really greened up out there. All that dried up grass and weeds and last autumn's' leaves dry up fast this time of year. Relatively stiff breezes, especially tomorrow, raise the risk of brush fires.  Now is not the time to play with matches. Well, it's never a good time to play with matches, but especially now.

The first in a series of storms from the Plains will wash out on approach to us this weekend. There's a slight chance some light showers will hang in there and give us some brief dampness Saturday or Sunday, but don't count on it. 

It'll turn slightly warmer, too with highs within a few degrees either side of 60 Saturday and Sunday. 

The next chance of rain still looks to be on April 29. But even then, that storm looks like it might be weakening as it approaches us, so we might not get much out for that one either. 

 

Huge Area Of Northern United States Under Wind Alerts

High winds are and will be buffeting large areas of
the northern and western United States over the 
next couple of days. Areas in various shades of 
brown are under high wind warnings,
watches or advisories. 

 Those atmospheric rivers that are threatening the Pacific Northwest are teaming up with other weather systems to put an enormous are of the northern United States under wind alerts. 

High wind warnings and watches and wind advisories this afternoon extend from the Pacific Coast in Washington and Oregon all the way to western Minnesota. 

The wind is being created by the storms and a strong west-to-east jet stream coming off the ocean in the Pacific Northwest. An Arctic high pressure pushing down toward Montana from Canada is helping stir up the winds. 

So is pretty strong Alberta Clipper storm  that will head across the Northern Plains tonight and tomorrow and reach the Great Lakes area by Tuesday night and early Wednesday. 

I imagine some more wind advisories might eventually be hoisted because of this Alberta Clipper in some of Great Lakes states and maybe parts of  the Northeast. 

In the wide open expanses of Big Sky Montana, and the northern Plains, the terrain doesn't do much to stop or break up winds, so strong winter gusts are pretty common out there. Still, widespread areas could see gusts to 65 mph over the next couple of days. 

The good news is the huge area of high wind warnings across the northern Plains won't cause as much damage as a similarly huge area of strong gusts would on the East Coast. In the Plains, there's not that many trees to topple onto power lines and houses.  Plus, the populations is quite sparse, so there's relatively few people getting caught up in the storminess. . 

Along the eastern seaboard, heavily forested cities and neighborhoods and a dense population would mean hundreds of thousands of power outages and quite a few homes and cars damaged by falling trees if hit by a windstorm that's looming over places like Montana and North Dakota. 

The Pacific Northwest is heavily populated and full of trees, so there will be some power outages and downed trees and branches. But the winds there generally won't be as strong as they will be in the northern Plains. Places like Seattle and Portland might see gusts to 40 or 45 mph or so.

As mentioned Saturday, the real problem for the Pacific Northwest is the atmospheric rivers smashing into the region. Major flooding is still anticipated up in that neck of the woods. 

Weird Northern Heat Wave, Wildfires Now Giving Way To Widespread Tornados/Severe Weather In The U.S.

After a sort of quiet first half of May in the severe weather
department, things ramp up in the nation starting today.
Areas in yellow and especially orange are at risk
for tornadoes and destructive storms today. 

No rest for the weary in the United States when it comes to active, dangerous weather.

The giant, bonkers, record shattering heat wave in the northern Plains, western Great Lakes and south central Canada is mercifully ending. 

Those giant forest fires in Minnesota that resulted from that arid, windy weather should get tamped down somewhat by much cooler weather and more than a half inch of rain expected today and tomorrow. 

But the price of that is steep. We're about to embark on about a week of tornadoes, destructive hailstorms, severe thunderstorms and flooding that will hit various parts of the nation. 

March and April had a near record number of tornadoes in the United States. As we entered the peak of the severe weather season in May, we were fortunate to get a sort of break, 

True, there were tornadoes and severe thunderstorms and brutal hailstorms so far this month, but there were no mega-outbreaks of tornadoes or multi-day strings of severe weather in the first half of May.

Still, we've had 758 tornadoes through May 13 compared to the average of 613 through that date. In the past 15 years, only 2011 and 2024 had had more tornadoes through mid-May in the United States.

Those relatively calm days of early May are over. Starting today, tornadoes, giant hail and destructive storms will be in the news for at least a week.

If Ma Nature plays her cards right, or more accurately, wrong, the tornado count for the season will get a big boost over the next few days. 

TODAY

The dangerous weather today will cover a broad area centered on the Great Lakes, and they'll hit populated areas, too. Cities most at risk for destructive thunderstorms and tornadoes today include Chicago, Milwaukee, Madison, Wisconsin and Fort Wayne, Indiana.

There's a chance that some tornadoes in or more likely near these cities could be strong and long lasting. In other words, the damage could be worse had a barn roof flying off and a couple trees toppling over. We'd better hope the stronger tornadoes remain over rural areas 

TOMORROW

The risk of tornadoes and severe weather on Friday is just as great as today, it's just shifted south to the Ohio Valley. Cities most at risk Friday include Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Nashville, Louisville and St. Louis. 

NEXT FEW DAYS

The weather traffic will be busy in the U.S. for the next few days with storms and disturbances moving generally west to east across the nation. These storms will feed on the contrast between record and near record heat in the far south and chilly air to the north, 

The tornado threat will shift depending the day,  but will focus mostly in traditional Tornado Alley -- the Plains states.  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a tornado threat in that general region daily Saturday through Tuesday.  

VERMONT EFFECTS

Once again, through all this rough national weather, we in the Green Mountain State will lead a charmed life.  But that doesn't mean conditions here will stay nice, We've got rain, thunderstorms, clouds, and eventually much chillier air coming in. 

There's even a low chance of severe storms and a little flooding through this,  But luckily, so far it looks like we're avoiding a calamity.

The sunny, warm weather we've had in Vermont this week is all but over. Though today won't be so bad, with a fair amount of sun mixed with the clouds and just a slight chance of a widely scattered afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm. 

Starting today and continuing tomorrow, it will be a bit more humid than we're used to. Kind of like summer,

Friday will be a truly summery day with highs in many places getting into the low 80s and again, it will be on the humid side. Showers and thundershowers will develop in the afternoon and continue into the evening, They'll be much more numerous than they will be today, so most of us will get wet. 

Enjoy that summer warmth and humidity tomorrow, as that will be the last time you feel it for a long while. We're shifting into a cool, unsettled pattern that should last until at least toward the end of the month. 

And guess what? Saturday will be rainy, which will be the eighth wet Saturday in a row. It'll be the most interesting day of the week, too. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk for isolated severe storms. NOAA also has us in a marginal risk for excessive rain and flooding. 

Those are the lowest of the alert levels. If severe storms do develop, they will be isolated and short-live. Same is true if we see any flooding.  Any high water would be in just a handful of places and should be minor. At least as it looks now.  If there's updates to this, we of course will pass that along. 

Starting Sunday, daily highs in Vermont will only be in the 50s and 60s for the foreseeable future.

Another National Hot Summer With Another Central U.S. "Warming Hole"

Long range predictions issued in the spring for what the nation's summer would be like turned out to be pretty darned accurate.  

Those forecasts said the West and East coasts had the best chances of a hot summer this year, while there was a somewhat lesser chance of that happening in the central and northern Plains.  

Here was the forecast for chances of above or
below normal temperatures for this past summer
This forecast was issued on May 16. 

That's just what happened.

As the Washington Post tells us:

"Many dozens of cities in the West, Northeast and Gulf Coast posted their hottest summer on record (as measured by average temperature for the three-month period). California and Arizona had the most locations with record hot summers."

For the record, here in Vermont, Burlington logged its third hottest summer.

Though the northern and central Plains and Midwest had some heat waves over the summer, it wasn't really a blockbuster one for heat.

Which follows a well defined trend. Summer temperatures in much of the middle third of the nation have not been warming like the East and West coasts. It's as if climate change is vacationing away from the Midwest during the summer. 

A recent paper in the Journal of the American Meteorological Society helps explain what's going on. Ironically, the seeming lack of climate-related summer warming in the Midwest is largely the fault of (drum roll......) climate change. 

This is how summer actually turned out. The deeper the
red, the warmer relative to average it was. Blue areas
were slightly cooler than average. This is pretty
darn close to that forecast from May 16.

The Plains have gotten wetter in the summer than in previous decades, according to the paper.  It's interesting that daytime highs in months like June, July and August in the Plains have not risen, but  overnight lows have.

Wetter, more humid days tend to suppress daytime temperatures in the summer, but such weather can keep nights warmer.   Writers of the paper note that average atmospheric pressure during the summer in the Plains has gone down, indicating the presence of more storm systems. 

Extra storm systems also pull down batches of cooler Canadian air as they pass through, contributing to that lack of warming.

 Fewer storms would have allowed air either move up from the south as heat waves, or just warm up under the strong sunshine of summer. 

Land use such as increased irrigation might also be contributing to the relative coolness in the Plains, but that doesn't seem to be the main factor.

And yes, climate change could well be contributing to the increased wetness in the Plains, so as usual with this type of thing, yes, a warming world might actually be cooling the the central U.S. in the summer.  

Yet ANOTHER Big Tornado Outbreak Looms In Midwest As Weather Here In Vermont Turns Changeable

Another day of severe weather and tornadoes is due
in the Plains today.  Up here in Vermont, we can
expect some changeable weather over 
the next few days. 

 The ongoing slog of severe weather and tornadoes continues through much of the middle of the nation. A fresh outbreak of storms and tornadoes today and Sunday is forecast to be among the worst this season.  

Here in Vermont, we'll have changeable weather, including a rather stormy Monday and Monday night. More on that coming up.

TORNADO/STORM HAVOC

Bad weather continued on Friday in the middle of the nation and it's going to get worse today.

Early Friday, a band of intense thunderstorms and a few embedded tornados raced from Nebraska, through Iowa and into Illinois, causing more damage.

Greenfield, Iowa, where an intense, deadly tornado mowed down and pulverized homes along a path through town on Tuesday, thunderstorm winds of 75 mph caused added damage there. Those winds tore tarps off of tornado-damaged roofs, knocked down some of the surviving trees and cut power again. 

Today, the alarm bells are going off especially in Kansas and Oklahoma, where we have another risk of violent, long-lasting tornadoes later today. 

That area is in a moderate risk zone for chaos, the second highest level.  As of early this morning, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center was considering upgrading the risk level to a relatively rare high rating. There's still some questions as to how much super humid air will feed into this area.  If the humid air doesn't fully engulf this risk area, tornadoes might not be as widespread as feared. 

Stay tuned, and we'll hope the humidity sputters.

 Metro areas in the danger zone include Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma and Wichita, Kansas. In addition to the tornadoes, giant hail and hurricane force straight line winds are also possible in spots. Not everybody in the risk zone will see such dangerous weather, but a few certainly will. 

The activity moves on to Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valley.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Well, the heat we had this past week is certainly over. 

After a gorgeous, breezy, refreshing blue sky, green landscape day Friday, those clear skies led to the chilliest dawn since early this month. 

A crisp, blue sky morning in Vermont will lead to 
some changeable weather over the next few days,
though we're lucky enough to not be in for the
kind of severe weather occurring out in the
Midwest. No tornadoes for us!

 It wasn't extreme, but temperatures did fall to at least 31 in perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York. Readings in Vermont's Northeast Kingdom were in the mid-30s, while most of us were in the 40s. 

Burlington ended an 11-day streak of temperatures continuously above 50 degrees, which is quite rare for May.

We'll have another nice day today, though clouds will increase. A weak disturbance tonight will scatter some showers around, and we might even hear a rumble of thunder in a couple spots. No biggie.

Sunday will be a warm, largely sunny day. It might be a little too warm for those participating in Sunday's Vermont City Marathon in Burlington. Temperatures at dawn will start out near 60 and quickly rise well into the 70s by noon. Humidity will be moderate.

The interesting weather arrives Monday into Tuesday as we in Vermont see the effects of that Midwest storm. 

Luckily, we won't see extremes, but we should get a good dose of rain, some thunderstorms, and especially in the Champlain Valley, some gusty south winds. 

After a few days of low humidity, we'll actually need the rain for the gardens. At this point anywhere from a half inch to an inch and a half of rain is in the cards. The National Weather Service actually has us in a broad marginal risk zone for flash flooding Monday and Monday night. 

That said, even if we see anything like that in Vermont, it will be isolated and not catastrophic. We're still - so far at least - not setting ourselves up for anything like we had last summer. 

Starting Tuesday and going through the rest of the week, the weather will stay sort of cool for the season with risks for showers almost daily. No new heat waves in sight for now. 

Dangerous U.S. Weather Bubbles, And Then Will Become Star Of The Show Again Next Week

After a relative lull in our nation's springtime battle against severe weather (though Texans would argue with that assertion), big bad sometimes dangerous weather is looming again for much of the nation.  

The first day of an expected several days of severe weather
and tornadoes will come Monday, with a focus on the
central Plains of the United States. 

Tornadoes, gorilla hail, flooding and even snow will beset some parts of the nation in the upcoming week. 

Before the big weather show starts today and to a greater extent tomorrow,  we really have acknowledge how Texas has really been getting hammered.

Several tornadoes - a few of them strong - hit western Texas over the past couple days. One of them caused serious damage in Hawley, Texas.  Several houses were destroyed.

Western Texas has dealt with damaging tornadoes for two days now, and today is another dangerous day out there. The areas around Midland, Odessa and San Angelo seem to be most at risk. 

The incident included a dramatic rescue by storm chasers of a family who was injured while the tornado blew their house apart. 

Eastern Texas has endured several days of severe flooding. At least a foot of rain fell in places a little north of Houston. The resulting flood was the worst since the catastrophic Hurricane Harvey floods of 2017.

NEXT UP

A pretty substantial storm for this late in the season is plowing into California this weekend, and that will be the main player in the next really big tornado and severe storm threat, which ramps up starting on Monday.

Initially, it's an unseasonably cold storm.  Way out of season winter weather advisories were up until this morning in northwestern California. A winter storm warning was up in the Sierra Nevada range. That's the latest in the season in at least recent memory that the National Weather Service office in Reno has issued such a warning. 

Even before the worst of the severe weather hits next week
flooding will continue in the South. Area in yellow is at 
risk Sunday. Flooding to continue in many areas
beyond that date. 

Five to eight inches of snow were expected near Lake Tahoe, which is wicked late for them to have that kind of snow. Sierra Nevada summits could see two feet of new snow. High winds from the Sierra east through most of Nevada will add to the problems. 

The storm is forecast to emerge into the High western Plains by Monday. This will launch several days of severe weather and tornadoes in the central Plains Monday, and in large areas of the Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday.

Severe weather and tornadoes will probably continue for at least a day or two after that, but forecast models are not yet clear on exactly where that might set up. 

There's already lots of warm, super humid air in the southern Plains, which continues a flood risk today and tomorrow in much of Texas, Oklahoma and parts of Arkansas.  Flood threats will continue amid the severe weather and tornadoes on Monday and beyond.

So yeah, we have another destructive mess for weather in much of the nation once again for the next few days. 

As for us in Vermont, it still looks like we will blissfully enjoy the Goldilocks weather we've been having as the Midwest has had its terrible, and terrifying spring. 

Second Day Of Intense Tornadoes Take Toll On Oklahoma, Surrounding States

 The continuing siege of tornadoes in the nation's middle claimed three lives in Oklahoma last night, but this huge bout of severe weather is showing signs of slowing down a little. 

Tornado aftermath in Sulfur, Oklahoma today. Photo
from KayDubEll on Reddit 

At least for now.

It can't get any busier. As of today, there's 78 reports of tornadoes Friday, mostly in Nebraska and Iowa. On Saturday, there were 40 tornado reports from northern Texas to Missouri, with the bulk of them in Oklahoma. 

Tornado activity was somewhat at a minimum in central and eastern Oklahoma during the day Saturday, as atmospheric conditions didn't quite come together enough to set off the expected tornado outbreak. However, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes raked parts of Texas, southwestern Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri all day Saturday. 

Mostly after dark, the atmosphere over Oklahoma set itself up for dangerous, big tornadoes, and unfortunately delivered.

Nighttime tornadoes are especially dangerous because people are usually sleeping or otherwise paying less attention to weather warnings. Plus, many people wait to see a visual clue a tornado is coming, and that's usually hard to do at night. 

The three deaths in Oklahoma are horrific, of course,  but that death toll would have been much higher without the incessant warnings that issued last evening and overnight as twisters roamed the state.

Downtown Sulfur, Oklahoma was destroyed by a tornado. As first responders swarmed into town to help, they were told to take cover as another tornado lurked nearby. Later, at least 20 injuries were reported in Sulfur while rescuers continued to sift through the wreckage looking for other survivors. 

Drone video from Live Storms Media showed most buildings in downtown Sulfur at least damaged, with several completely collapsed. An apartment complex was torn apart, and numerous homes were roofless or otherwise trashed. 

Another tornado was reported in Norman, which is right in the Oklahoma City metro area. Ardmore,  Oklahoma also reported heavy tornado damage. 

Meanwhile, the cleanup started in earnest across parts of Nebraska and Iowa from Friday's intense tornadoes.  Locals marveled that nobody died in those twisters, which is a testament to the advance warning people received from the National Weather Service and local television stations. 

The outbreak was so intense and widespread that the National Weather Service office in Omaha, Nebraska had to issue a total of 42 tornado warnings. 

Nationwide, the National Weather Service has issued 250 tornado warnings are nearly 500 severe thunderstorm warnings since Friday, the Washington Post reports. 

Several interviews I saw included survivors who said they were in their basements or storm shelters when the tornadoes hit because the warnings gave them enough time to take shelter. 

In the coming week, severe weather and tornadoes will not be nearly as widespread as they were over the weekend, but will still be scattered around the South over the next several days. 

This afternoon, forecasters were watching an area where Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas meet for a risk of tornadoes.

On Tuesday, the same areas of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa that were hit so hard on Friday are under a tornado threat again.  But that threat at this point doesn't appear as horrible as it was on Friday.

During the upcoming week, there is a threat of severe weather in the southern Plains and Southeast, but forecasters are unsure how extensive that threat will become. 

National Break From Tornadoes Ending In A Big Way

A supercell thunderstorm looking north from Sheldon,
Vermont on May 4, 2018. We're safe from any violent
thunderstorms over the next several days. However,
vast areas of the nation's middle are at daily risk of
severe storms each of the next five days at least,
starting Thursday afternoon. 

In an April 19 post,  I mentioned that tornado activity was temporarily stopping in the United States even as we headed into the height of twister season. 

I said that wouldn't last forever, and boy was I right, and so was virtually every forecaster watching the situation. 

We're about to embark on a severe weather outbreak that will last several days.  There's a strong likelihood of at least a few tornadoes daily at least into early next week.

Of course, the U.S. hasn't exactly been immune from severe thunderstorms over the past few days. It's spring, so it's hard to avoid them. 

On Saturday, severe hail and wind storms hit the Carolinas. Rock Hill, South Carolina was hit by baseball sized hail propelled by winds gusting to 90 mph. As you might imagine, damage was pretty extreme in that area.

Video from the Rock Hill storm with the wind and heavy hail is about as chaotic as you can get from a severe thunderstorm. 

Lumberton, North Carolina was hit by hailstones up to 4.5 inches in diameter, which is about the size of a grapefruit.   That size stone would at least tie the record for the largest hailstone ever found in North Carolina.

Tuesday, intense winds from a severe thunderstorm derailed a train near Abilene, Texas.  

However, a weather pattern that is bringing us in Vermont those hard, plant-damaging freezes tonight and tomorrow night also flooded most of the nation east of the Rockies with relatively cool and definitely dry air. 

That combo discourages the types of thunderstorms that can cause big hail, damaging winds and tornadoes,

But that weather pattern is breaking down. Warm, wet air is about to flood into much of the nation east of the Rockies. Dry air will make it into the parts of the southern and central Plains at times.  This pattern will also feature frequent storms forming in the southern Rockies and then moving northeastward toward the Great Lakes.

It's a classic spring tornado pattern and it looks like it will last more or less for a week or more. 

The bottom line: The next few days will be a tornado chaser's dream, but otherwise a threat to tens of millions of people. Unfortunately a tiny percentage of those people are about to lose their houses to tornadoes or other severe weather. 

The best case scenario will be that the strongest tornadoes avoid hitting towns and stick to open rangeland and farms with few or no buildings. 

It's impossible to say how many tornadoes will touch down, but it could be dozens over the next week

DETAILS:

There could be a couple more severe storms and maybe a tornado in west Texas this evening, but the real show starts tomorrow. 

Thursday

Friday afternoon and evening, a broad zone from southern Nebraska to central Texas is under the gun. It looks like western and central Kansas, western Oklahoma and parts of the Texas panhandle have the best chance of seeing tornadoes.

In this part of the nation, population centers are few and far between, so we do have a good chance that even if any tornadoes get particularly strong, they could thread the needle and avoid hitting towns and cities in the risk area. Fingers crossed!

Friday

Saturday's risk areas focus on most of Iowa, Missouri and Arkansas and parts of Oklahoma and Texas.  This area is far more built up than Friday's zone. Big metropolitan areas like Des Moines, Omaha, Kansas City, St. Louis, Oklahoma City and Dallas-Fort Worth are in this zone. 

That doesn't necessarily mean any of those cities or suburbs will take a tornado hit. Chances are they won't. But it'll be a day to keep an eye to the skies in those areas. 

One mitigating factor could be that storms left over from Friday would interfere with the development of new potentially tornado-producing supercell thunderstorms. 

Weekend 

The risk zone appears on Saturday to extend in a band from Texas to Wisconsin, with the biggest risk of trouble in central Kansas and Oklahoma. A second storm system coming out of the Rockies will help to re-invigorate severe storms and potential tornadoes. By Sunday, the risk zone looks like it will back almost where it's expected on Friday  - from Iowa and Illinois to eastern Texas

Other Problems

This new weather pattern also carries other risks. Bone dry, windy conditions in parts of New Mexico Colorado and western Texas could set off new wildfires and rangeland fires. It's already been a busy spring in that next of the woods for fires, so this might just make the whole situation worse.

In the humid air further east in the Midwest, repeated rounds of storms over the next few days could touch off some flash flooding. In some instances it could be locally quite severe.

Vermont Effects

The change in the weather pattern means Vermont's weather will change, too. We'll endure the hard freezes tonight and tomorrow night before the air turns a lot warmer over the weekend and the first half of next week. 

Highs could easily hit the 70s. 

The cold and warm fronts and remnants from those Midwest storm systems will head into Vermont as they weaken. That keeps us at risk for rather frequent showers Saturday night into Wednesday. There could even be a few thunderstorms thrown in next week. At this point, it doesn't look like that activity will be scary or damaging. Just the usual spring shower.s 

Fires, Snowstorms, Tornadoes, High Winds And Hail: But Not For Us In Vermont

It's getting to be that time of year. Widespread severe
weather possible in the middle of the nation today.
especially in Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma. 

 The nation is getting into a typical, wild spring weather pattern, which brings a huge mix of weather, sometimes dangerous stuff. March and April can be pretty scary sometimes.  

Right on schedule, depending on where you were Wednesday, you saw tornadoes, large hail, wildfires, high winds, and snowstorms. 

Arguably, the most exciting weather Monday was a least one tornado in Kansas and some large, surely damaging hail hitting populated areas around Kansas City. 

Shawnee, a western suburb of Kansas City, reported baseball sized hail.  A picturesque dusk tornado caused some damage southwest of Topeka. 

The tornado and severe thunderstorm threat will actually worsen today. Tornadoes are possible today through a broad stretch of the Mississippi Valley, especially in Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma. 

Meanwhile, the Denver area is having one of its biggest snowstorms in years. Most of the major highway mountain passes west of Denver are closed because as much as three feet of snow is expected in those areas. Denver itself is forecast to receive 10 to 18 inches of heavy, wet snow, with amounts closer to two feet in the western suburbs. 

On top of all that, wildfires burned in parts of Oklahoma and Texas Wednesday. Today, most of California is bracing for high winds. 

So, is all this awfulness coming to the Green Mountain State?

The short answer is no, with details below. 

VERMONT

We will blessedly miss out on the big headline weather here in Vermont. Unsettled, yes but nothing scary in the near future. 

It's going to be quite warm again today, in what has been an incredibly warm month. If March stopped now, it would be a tie for the fourth warmest March on record in Burlington.  You'd think we'd be in line for having one of the top few warmest Marches on record, since the second half of the month is usually quite a bit warmer than the beginning days.   

By late afternoon Wednesday, warm weather had melted
most of Sunday and Monday's snow off my
St. Albans, Vermont yard. 

That might end up being true, but it's not a slam dunk. That's because the weather pattern is changing toward a cooler one. 

Not ridiculously cold, but cooler than it's been.  The pattern shift could drive down the average temperature for the month. 

Before we get there, we have some mild weather to get through. Today will get into the 50s in many areas once again. That's a good 10 to 15 degrees warmer than average for this time of year. 

Tonight and early tomorrow, it looks like a decent slug of rain will come through. Most of us should see somewhere in the neighborhood of a half inch of rain. That's enough to keep waterways high and mud season going full steam ahead. But it won't be enough to set off any flooding.

It'll stay mild-ish through the weekend, with more showers due Sunday. Again, not a blinding downpour, just showers.

The Sunday showers will come along with a cold front that will introduce our chillier air.  High temperatures should hold in the 30s for at least the first half of next week, and possibly beyond. Lows will be in the upper teens and low 20s.

That's not awful for March, but it's cooler than we've gotten used to. We'll probably also have a little snow mixed in there as well. But again, nothing crazy. 

And remember that completely non-sensical American weather model I referred to yesterday? The one that depicted a gigantic storm along the East Coast around March 26? Yeah, the latest run shows weak low pressure and scattered mostly light rains in the East that day. 

Told ya!

Wild Record High Temperatures In Nation; Spreads To Vermont Today. Plus: Stormy Weather

One of my perennial gardens in St. Albans, Vermont
this morning. It looked almost exactly like this at
the end of March last year. It bloomed prematurely
last year, so I wonder what the expected near 
record temperatures this week and next will do to it. 

 

UPDATE NOON TUESDAY

Baby, it's hot outside

As of noon, Burlington, Vermont had already broken the record high for the date of 59 degrees.

The old record was 57 degrees in 2000.

It's insane out there, to be honest. Temperatures will probably rise a few more degrees. We have decent chance of seeing the third hottest February day on record. 

The only warmer February days in Burlington were recent: 72 degrees on February 25, 2017 and 69 degrees on

February 21, 2018. 

Before 2017, the warmest it had ever gotten during February was 62 degrees.

The sights I'm seeing out there seem strange for February, too. Motorcycles are buzzing along highways. Trucks with trailers are hauling ice fishing shanties away from the lakes. 

There's actually a brush fire risk out there. It's windy, especially in the Champlain Valley, where there is no snow.  I wouldn't be surprised to see reports of grass or forest fires in low elevations today. In February!! 

I'm glad I burned my brush pile last week when there was a little snow on the ground. 

Skies were mostly clear at noon, but there was a hint of wildfire smoke up above. Another strange sight for February. The smoke is coming from a few wildfires in the South earlier this week.  There's also some large wildfires in the Great Plains, and we might eventually see a little smoke or haze in the sky 

from that. Either from this heat wave or another one scheduled for the weekend and early next week

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

I was pretty much in awe of record highs temperature reports from the middle of the United States yesterday. 

This ain't your grandfather's February, that's for sure. 

Those record highs extended from Texas to near the Canadian border.  

At least 33 weather stations reported all-time record highs for the entire month of February.  Among them were 78 degrees in Des Moines, Iowa; 80 degrees in Omaha, Nebraska; 73 in Rockford, Illinois and 65 in Minneapolis.

At least six cities in Iowa reported all time record highs for February.

Dozens upon dozens of other cities reported record highs for the date on Monday. The hot windy weather spurred several major rangeland and wildfires in Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Kansas. 

The warm state of affairs continues today with more record highs expected in the Midwest and Northeast, possibly even here in Vermont. 

The record high for today in Burlington is 57 degrees and in Montpelier, it's 52. Both seem reachable today. 

Plus, we still have plenty of excitement in the Vermont forecast, including more record highs tomorrow, a little bit of flooding, strong winds, a huge crash in temperatures tomorrow night followed by another big warmup. 

Never a dull moment so let's get into it:

TODAY

Speaking of weird temperatures, we started the day out with some craziness. Some spots at dawn were warm, others chilly.  For instance, it was 41 degrees in Burlington at 7 a.m. but just 23 degrees in Montpelier. 

Burlington was exposed to increasing south winds while Montpelier was sheltered from those winds.

Temperatures will even out today and soar into the 50s amid gusty south winds and a fair amount of sunshine.  Essentially, we have a breezy late April day in store, even though it is only February. Go figure. 

It'll stay warm tonight - well above freezing - and some showers should move in late. Nothing heavy, though. The winds will continue to blow.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT

We're still expecting quite a lot of weather excitement tomorrow and tomorrow night around Vermont, as the forecasts issued yesterday haven't changed all that much. 

Expect lots of wind and warmth during Wednesday, with mostly light showers around. It still looks like there might be a lull in the showers during the afternoon. That could allow temperatures to really soar into the 60s if it stops raining long enough and if there are thin spots in the overcast.

In some favored locations the south winds in the afternoon could gust to 45 mph, which might cause a few little problems with tree branches and isolated power outages. 

That's still iffy, so we'll have to wait and see how that plays out. 

The sharp cold front will plow into Vermont Wednesday evening. Best guess on the timing is at around 7 p.m. or so west of the Green Mountains and 8 or 9 east.  (That timing could easily change one way or another).

The cold front will produce a burst of heavy rain and a blast of westerly wind gusts that could gust to 50 mph.  The snow that would have been melting off the mountains Wednesday, combined with the rain, still looks like it might produce minor flooding along some rivers. Or at least get them up to bank full. 

At this point, the rivers with the best chance of reaching flood stage appear to be the Otter Creek in Rutland County and the Mad River in central Vermont. 

While this potential high water will be going on Wednesday night, temperatures still look like they will absolutely crash. For instance, the National Weather Service has Burlington going from 56 degrees at 7 p.m. Wednesday to 20 degrees by 4 a.m. Thursday. 

There will only be a wee bit of snow at the tail end of this, but with the bottom dropping out of the temperatures overnight, expect water on roads and sidewalks to freeze solid by Thursday morning. Watch it on the roads and on the sidewalks if you're out early Thursday. 

THURSDAY AND BEYOND

A very quicky cold, blustery day on Thursday, but at least the sun will be back out. That's it for cold, though. A chilly Friday morning will yield to a fairly warm afternoon. The weekend and early next week bring us back to normal April weather, which of course is very weird for the beginning of March.

I hope that doesn't mean we get a series of snowstorms in late April! Or during the April 8 eclipse!  

Weird U.S. Weather Week Starts, We'll Wait A Few Days For Our Turn In Vermont

The map on the home page of the National Weather Service
is getting colorful, especially west. That means plenty
of weather alerts due to a developing, sprawling storm.
These colors will spread east in the coming days 
with the storm.

 As advertised, a week of weird, extreme weather has started in much of the nation.

I noticed this  morning the National Weather Service hone page map is getting quite colorful. That's always a sign of weather trouble, because the colors depict various storm warnings, watches and advisories. 

It will keep spreading eastward as time goes on, finally hitting us in Vermont Wednesday night through Thursday night. 

Yesterday, we already talked about the record heat expected in the Southeast this week. 

If the East is warm, chances are the West will be cold, and that's definitely the case. Snow levels this week could drop as low as 1,000 feet above sea level in the Los Angeles area. Places like the foothills in the San  Fernando Valley which almost never see snow have a good shot of experiencing some flakes later this week.

Passes over the mountains, like the I-5 Grapevine, could become impassable. Expected high temperatures in Los Angeles later this week are only in the low 50s. That's a good 15 degrees below normal.

I'm still impressed by how much snow is expected over such a huge area of the nation from the storm that is developing. 

Winter storm watches and warnings, with a few embedded blizzard warnings this morning stretched all the way from near the Oregon coast to Wisconsin. Those watches and warnings will almost definitely be extended all the way to northern New England by mid to late week. 

The central and northern Plains and the upper Midwest are used to snowstorms, but this one looks a lot deeper than  your traditional winter fare.

Forecasters are already giving the Minneapolis-St. Paul area a 90 percent chance of seeing at least a foot of snow. More than two feet is not out of the question. 

At least a foot of snow is forecast from Wyoming to Wisconsin as well. There's a chance snow that deep could reach Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, but that is still iffy at the moment. 

South of that broad band of snow, forecasters have increasing fears of a damaging ice storm in a large band extending from northern Illinois, through southern Michigan, southern Ontario, western and central New York and on into southwestern New England,

That ice threat is not cast in stone quite yet. But if it develops, a lot of people are going to lose electricity for some time. 

VERMONT UPDATE

Though things can radically change, it's still steady as she goes for the forecast for the mid to late week storm here.

A small system today, and a slightly larger one tomorrow will spread some spotty rain and snow through the state. We could see enough snow to create slick spots on some of the roads Tuesday. But only a dusting to two inches is in the cards. That might be mixed with rain in the valleys.

The main show still looks like it will run Wednesday night to early Friday morning. The expected snow will wax and wane during that time. Still, an early read on this suggests we could get a foot or more of snow in at least some parts of Vermont. 

We also have the question of how far north sleet and freezing rain reaches. Southern Vermont is still most at risk for this .

The models have trended a bit colder this morning for this storm, which would favor snow. The problem is, the models could easily flip flop back to warmer air aloft. So it's still a big question mark as to what exactly will fall from the sky over Vermont mid to late week. 

Another Big Coast To Coast Storm Is Causing Big Problems

Yet another powerful storm is wreaking havoc in large swaths of the nation. Just what we need after a wild December, right? 

Much like the last big storm just before Christmas, the problems are extending, or at least will extend coast to coast. 

Unlike the last storm, we're not dealing with nearly as much frigid air. This lack of frigid air is cold comfort, though, and pardon the pun and the contradiction.

Almost every imaginable problem is coming out of this storm, including flooding, deep, deep snow, severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, some of them possibly quite powerful, lots of ice, freezing rain, wind and record temperatures. 

Though this time, those will be record high temperatures, not record lows.

On the bright side, locusts are highly unlikely with this storm, so I guess that's a plus. 

We'll delve into the gory details of this storm a bit more, then go into Vermont impacts.  Spoiler: As is often the case, the Green Mountain State won't get slammed as much as other parts of the nation, but things will still get pretty interesting as the storm passes through.  More on that further down in this post.

This all started New Year's Eve, as the system took the form of an atmospheric river that slammed into central California.  An atmospheric river is a long, narrow ribbon of deep moisture that can cross oceans. When they hit land, atmospheric rivers can cause torrential, flooding rains. Which it did

Downtown San Francisco measured 5.46 inches of rain Saturday, its second wettest day in at least 170 years. The flooding closed many roads, including part of Highway 101, and forced evacuations throughout the Bay Area.

One person died in the flooding in Sacramento County. Several others were rescued from a flooded highway in the area, the Sacramento Bee reported. 

In the Sierra Nevada, the heavy precipitation took the form of blinding snows. Several feet of snow piled up, which will be a good thing for water supplies next summer. At one point, snow fell at a rate of 7.5 inches per hour at a Sierra Mountain research lab. 

The heavy snow extended into western Nevada, where heavy snow blocked roads and trapped people in cars for a time. The actor Jeremy Renner was critically injured in a Lake Tahoe snow plowing accident. 

This storm primed the pump for possibly even more extensive flooding in California later this week, when another atmospheric river is due. The ground is now quite saturated, and can't handle more downpours. 

TORNADOES/SEVERE STORMS

Today, the focus for possible tornadoes is on an area known as ArkLaTex, where Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas meet. 

If the storms fully develop, this will be the third time in two months that this section of the U.S. has been hit by destructive tornadoes.

As is often the case, it's hard to be sure if a lot of tornadoes will actually form later today and tonight. But the ingredients are there - high humidity, winds changing direction and speed with height, and a strong storm center to the north. 

The severe weather and tornado risk will move into the central Gulf States tomorrow.

Early winter was busy for tornadoes and severe weather in the South, and unfortunately, it looks like that trend is continuing into the new year. 

SNOW/ICE

A vast, wide stripe from Utah and Colorado to Minnesota. This will be a messy storm to say the least as it emerges into the central and northern Plains later today, tonight and into tomorrow.  Up to a foot and a half of snow will fall, and some areas will probably see yet another blizzard.

In many of these areas, though, the snow will mix with freezing rain, sleet and even thunder.  

An ice storm warning is in effect for northwest Iowa, and a few parts of eastern Nebraska and southern Minnesota, where enough freezing rain is in the cards to probably knock down trees and power lines.  

FLOODING AND WARMTH

In the same areas where the tornadoes are possible in the South, torrential rains will probably cause some flash flooding. It probably won't be as bad as what hit in California, but bad enough.  Out ahead of the system, more record high temperatures are forecast for the eastern third of the U.S., except northern New England.

Which brings us to a quick Vermont update with this thing. 

VERMONT IMPACTS

This won't be a huge storm for us, but a tricky one in some respects.

Vermont AOT traffic cam screen grab from Route 4 near
up on Mendon Mountain shows the recent warmth
has decimated snow cover even in high elevations
More rain is in the forecast, but a cool down and
possible light snow will follow

For one thing, forecasters have backed way off on the idea of record high temperatures once again flooding into the Green Mountain State Tuesday and Wednesday. Especially in northern Vermont.

The storm's warm front won't fly off into southern Canada like originally thought. Instead, it will get hung up near the International Border. At least that's the way it looks now.  

It'll still be toasty for January, but we won't have a rerun of that spring weather we enjoyed (or endured!) in the final days of 2022.

Watch out for a little freezing rain east of the Green Mountains early on Tuesday, but this will mainly be another rain event. A cold rain, but still rain. 

We won't get enough rain through midday Wednesday to cause any flooding, so that's good news. Usually with this kind of storm, the cold front to finish it off sweeps on through fast like a fugitive being chased by a cop.

This time, the front will sort of limp on through. That puts us at risk for some mixed precipitation or snow later Wednesday through Thursday and maybe even into Thursday night.

At this point, it doesn't look like it will amount to all that much, but it could make the roads slick again. To give us back our usual winter hazards, I suppose. 

Storm System Still Causing All Kinds Of National Weather Woes

All those red splotches on this weather map of Mississippi from
early this afternoon are possible tornadoes The red stripe
to the west of that is flash flood warnings. Dangerous
weather continues in the South today. 

 As we here in Vermont anticipate the arrival of a likely messy storm toward Friday, I've only touched a little in this here blog thingy about what it's been doing to much of the rest of the nation as it slowly lumbers eastward.   

By the time it's through, I think this storm will have dumped either snow or rain on each state in the Lower 48. 

The storm created a widespread blizzard, and is continuing to spit out a surprising number of dangerous tornadoes in the South. Add flooding, and ice storms to the mix, and you have a real mess.

TORNADOES

The tornadoes are the worst, as they usually are. 

Tornado warnings have been flying almost constantly since late Monday from Oklahoma to Louisiana. So far there have been 21 reports of tornadoes in the South, and that number will increase as more tornadoes touch down and National Weather Service offices investigate areas of damage to determine whether the destruction was caused by twisters.

Sadly, three people have lost their lives to the tornadoes so far, including an eight year old boy and his mother in Louisiana. 

Tornadoes on Tuesday caused destruction in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area, but luckily only caused a smattering of minor injuries.

If anything, the tornado situation could get worse this afternoon. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the risk level for severe weather in and near southern Mississippi to moderate, the second highest level. (It had been at "enhanced" or third highest level, since this past weekend).

Forecasters fear strong, long-lasting tornadoes over the next several hours.  In the past hour (it's 1 p.m. as I write this) more than half a dozen tornado warnings popped up in Mississippi and Louisiana. 

I'm sure I'll need to update this situation later. 

As warm, humid air becomes more prevalent in the South with climate change, we're seeing indications of an uptick in late autumn and winter severe weather there in recent years. 

Thankfully, after this outbreak ends tomorrow, cold air is expected to plunge well into the South for rest of the month, squelching the potential for tornadoes.

FLOODING

In the same areas most under the gun for tornadoes today, flooding is a real risk, too. As much as eight inches of rain could pour down on parts of Mississippi and western Alabama before all this is over. 

Flash flooding was already ongoing in central Louisiana as of noon, and that was expected to spread east soon. 

BLIZZARD

This is the third day in a row that parts of Wyoming, Nebraska and the Dakotas have been under a blizzard warning. 

This is a windy storm for sure. Gusts at Rapid City, South Dakota gusted past 50 mph for twenty consecutive hours. Wind gusts peaked as high as 63 mph.   Interstate 90 was closed through the western half of South Dakota due to zero visibility and huge drifts. 

The blizzard is expected to finally gradually taper off over the next day or two, but cold weather will remain in the northern Plains. Temperatures are expected to fall well below zero in the region by the weekend.

ICE STORM

Freezing rain socked the eastern Dakotas and parts of Minnesota while that blizzard raged to the west of those locations. Now, ice storm warnings have been issued for parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania as the big mess of storminess gradually heads eas.

Another Enormous Heat Wave Building, Texas To Canadian Arctic. Vermont Stays Cool

While  most of the Northern Hemisphere has been wilting 
under intense heat waves so far this summer, they've 
been missing us in Vermont. Flowers on my back
shown here enjoying a sunny but temperate 
Fourth of July.

 Summer isn't even half over, but the northern hemisphere has had one epic heat wave after another. 

Just in the past week, places as diverse as Tokyo and Oslo have had brutal hot spells. There seems to be very few places left that have not had a record heat wave this summer. Vermont, the rest of New England and southeastern Canada are in the small minority of lucky places that have not yet had record heat this summer. 

No big hot spells are in the offing here through at least the third week in July it seems, but elsewhere, new big heat waves are coming fast and furiously. 

This next one is going to hit large portions of central North America. In some places, the heat will be particularly dangerous because it will last many days with no relief.  In the central and southern Plains, the extreme heat could last up to two weeks.

Now, this area is normally hot in the summer anyway, but this will heat wave will be quite draining. 

For instance, today will probably be the "coldest" out of at least the next ten days in Oklahoma City. The forecast high there today is 100 degrees. From here on out daily high temperatures through at least early next week there will be close to 105 degrees. Normal highs this time of year in Oklahoma City are in the low 90s. 

Heat advisories are up for a vast portion of the nation's middle today, and I expect more heat advisories and warnings out there daily for the foreseeable future.

The heat in the middle of the nation will last so long because a "heat dome," which is a large area of hot high pressure, seems not want to move for a long time.  It'll just sit there, creating day after day of intense heat, and possibly causing a "flash drought" in the process. 

Air under heat domes tends to sink, which is exactly the opposite of what you want to produce summertime showers and thunderstorms. The only hope for rain in this heat zone is if any weak disturbances managed to briefly infiltrate it.

The hot weather picks up where June left off.  Overall we saw about three times the number of daily record highs in the U.S compared to record lows. 

Here in Vermont, we're well north and  east of the heat dome, which sets up a pretty steady flow of air from the west and northwest. That'll ensure a series of cold fronts will come through over the next week or two, keeping humidity and check and temperatures near or a little cooler than normal.

Since the air is from a drier region and not the south, rainfall here in Vermont does not look like it'll be all that impressive, but we will get our share of showers from time to time. The next shot at any rain is tomorrow.

I almost forgot to mention another concerning area of at least relative heat in North America. Far northern Canada and areas of the high Arctic adjacent to Canada are experiencing odd warmth for the region. That northern heat, like the hot stuff in the U.S. southern Plains is expected to last a long time. 

Places like Inuvik way up in Canada's Northwest Territories, is experiencing a week long spell of high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Normal highs there are about 60 degrees this time of year. The heat is expected to spread into Nunavut later in the week. That's in an Arctic region west of Greenland. 

The heat is causing concern about sea ice in the Arctic. It could melt even more than it has in recent summers, which is a lot. The hot conditions could also set off some high latitude wildfires. Those are bad, of course, for many reasons.  The fires lay down soot on Arctic ice and on Greenland, which can cause ice to melt faster in the summer.

Plus the fires add more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, which is not good for climate change. And, with the northwest flow continuing here in New England, smoke from up there could easily cause smoky or hazy skies and elevated pollution levels here.  

Wildfires And Severe Storms This Week Are Following Concerning Trends

Wildfires just keep getting worse in the central and 
southern Great Plains. Fire activity is forecast to get
intense later today. 

 Northern Texas, western Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas are under a rare alert for "extremely critical fire conditions" today as yet another round of wildfires are bursting their way through the central and southern Plains. 

Meanwhile, the Gulf Coast states are gearing up for a big severe thunderstorm and tornado threat tomorrow. Both of these issues are part of a worrying trend. 

WILDFIRES

Extremely critical fire condition alerts are usually only issued 10 or so days per year somewhere in the nation.  This is the second time already this year that parts of Texas have been under this threat. This threat level means that dry conditions, very low humidity and strong winds would make any wildfires that start pretty much impossible to contain. 

In the "extremely critical" area today, fires were already spreading before weather conditions were expected to get dangerous. By dangerous, we mean a landscape parched by drought, bone-dry humidity and winds of 35 to 40 mph with gusts in the 65 to 70 mph range 

As of this past Friday, 123,000 acres in Texas had already burned this month, more than the three previous Marches combined, according to Texas Tribune.

The Texas fires this year have already caused one death and burned several structures.

Fires are already burning today in Oklahoma as well. A grass fire that started at an Oklahoma City salvage yard threatened several homes in the city. At least 10 of the houses were evacuated, but it looks like firefighters managed to save them. 

Earlier this month, a firefighter died while fighting a rangeland blaze elsewhere in Oklahoma. Several other wildfires this month have raced through mostly open country in North Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. 

As is so often the case, climate change seems to be helping to create an increasing trend of winter and spring wildfires in the Great Plains. Drought has become more endemic, and hotter weather than in the past dries things out faster. 

This has been known since at least 2017, when a study indicated that the number of large and dangerous wildfires in the Plains tripled between 1985 and 2014. 

It isn't just climate change causing this, of course. Farm abandonment is one reason.  If farmland is left alone, flammable weeds take over. Also, invasive species like a variety of cedar that burns easily and hot are probably increasing the severity of at least some of the fires.

TORNADOES

Notwithstanding last week's storms in Texas, there's been a trend toward lower numbers of tornadoes in the traditional "Tornado Alley" in the Great Plains.  The new tornado alley, if you will, now seems to be further east, in the Gulf Coast States, and the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee River valleys. 

Once again, the Gulf Coast states are under a serious
risk of damaging thunderstorms and tornadoes, 
with most of them happening tomorrow. 

True to form, after a chance of a few tornadoes and severe storms today in a band from northeast Texas to southwest Iowa, tomorrow looks dangerous again in the Gulf Coast states. 

If things work out as expected the outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes centered in and around Mississippi won't be those classic individual supercell storms dropping large, wedged-shaped tornadoes.

Instead, most of the rough weather will consist of an intense line of storms, with damaging straight line winds of 75 mph in a few spots, along with embedded tornadoes swirling within the main line. In some ways, this type of tornado is more dangerous than "traditional" tornadoes with well defined funnels.

Tomorrow's anticipated tornadoes will be quick hitting and hidden behind walls of heavy rain, so nobody will be able to see them coming. Even though radar will pick up the tornadoes and the National Weather Service will issue tornado warnings as needed, there's something about human nature that needs visual confirmation that the twister is heading toward them.  There will be no such visual confirmation in most cases tomorrow. 

Research has confirmed the tendency in recent decades of more tornadoes in "Dixie Alley" and fewer overall in the Great Plains. 

The number of times the atmosphere is conducive to tornado formation is actually increasing pretty much everywhere east of the Mississippi River, including here in Vermont. (But don't worry too much, tornadoes will remain rarity in the Green Mountain State.