Epic Lake Effect Snows Are Now Beginning To Blast Parts Of New York State

Forecasts call for up to five feet of lake effect snow
near Watertown, New York and four feet south of
Buffalo by Monday. 

 Areas around the Great Lakes - especially in New York - are gearing up for an epic lake effect snowstorm. 

Between now and Monday, and probably beyond that, feet of snow will fall east of Lake Ontario, and off of Lake Erie south of Buffalo.

An area near Watertown, New York was forecast to receive more than five feet of snow between this morning and Monday morning. Towns south of Buffalo, New York can expect close to four feet of snow.

The lake effect squalls are expected to be intense enough so that the blizzard conditions would be punctuated by thunder and lightning at times.

Sunday's NFL Buffalo Bills home game could be interesting. The stadium is 10 miles south of Buffalo, right on the edge of where the heaviest lake squalls will set up. So it will either be OK, or a blizzard during the game. 

Other big lake effect snowfalls are happening along the southern shores of Lake Superior, in parts of Michigan, in southern Ontario and northern Ohio.

The New York squalls are powerful enough so that their remnants have started making it into Vermont this evening and should continue to do so through the weekend. That means a few flurries in the valleys, but perhaps a few inches of snow in some of the Green Mountains. 

The most accumulation will probably be near Jay Peak, which is great because that mountain received less snow Thursday than did resorts in central and southern Vermont. Kinda evens things up a little.

The ingredients in place are perfect for these enormous lake effect storms.

An oddly toasty autumn left Lakes Erie and Ontario much warmer than normal.  Now, cold winds are blowing across the lakes and will continue to do so for days. 

The bigger the temperature contrast between the lake water temperature and the air the more powerful the lake effect snows become.  The upcoming long stretch of weather with those persistent chilly westerly and northwesterly winds means a lot of snow can pile up in some spots. 

This won't be the biggest lake effect snow storm ever, but it really is a humdinger. 

The worst of course, was in December, 2022. Buffalo endured 37 hours of continuous blizzard conditions with winds as high as 72 mph.  The blizzard's onslaught came on suddenly, trapping people outdoors and in cars.  Some 41 people died from the storm's effects in and around Buffalo. A total of 52 inches of snow buried the city.

In mid-November, 2014, an intense lake effect snow dumped up to seven feet of snow on towns south of Buffalo, causing numerous roof collapses, and blocking roads to the point where gas and groceries were in short supply. That storm claimed 11 lives.

It's possible climate change is making some of these Great Lakes effect snowfall worse. The lakes stay warmer and more ice free than they used to in the late autumn and early winter. That contrast I mentioned between the unusually warm waters and cold winter air can make the storms more intense. 

Gentle Vermont Snow/Northeastern Storm Begins Volatile Weather Week For United States

One of many depiction of a major storm Wednesday
in the Northeast.  It will cause a lot of issues from the
Rockies to southeastern Canada. Vermont is in
play for high winds, among other problems. 

The snow falling in Vermont today is actually quite nice, in my opinion. 

We've got a gentle, powdery snow brightening up the landscape.  It's light and fluffy, so not hard to shovel. The winter sports industry is rejoicing. It's pretty out there. 

Enjoy it, because it's not going to last. It's not going to be a pretty weather week. In Vermont, and in most of the rest of the good ole US ofA. 

This storm isn't so nice for much of the rest of the eastern United States. It clogged southern New England roads with snow, canceled hundreds of flights and spun off a tornado in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. 

This first storm was the mildest of a series of storms set to affect much of the nation, including Vermont. I'll get into effects here in the Green Mountain State in a bit, but first an overview. Because millions of people are going to be coping with rough weather. 

MAJOR STORM FORMING

Large tree toppled in a strong wind storm in St. Albans,
Vermont in October, 2019. A destroyed Jeep is hidden
beneath the tree. A storm Wednesday could cause
similar damage in Vermont. 

The first hints of what's to come are formulating in the southwestern United States today. It's spitting out a major snowstorm and strong winds in the southern Rockies. 

It has also prompted freeze and even hard freeze warnings in southern and central Arizona, and the central valley of California. The developing storm is pulling cold air far southward.

As this thing moves northeastward, it promises to become a monster storm, much stronger than most. Basically, different parts of the U.S. will deal with almost every type of bad and dangerous weather possible.   

The storm will be a newsmaker, that's for sure. Expect lots of news clips and social media videos of dramatic weather.  

This storm will track well west of today's weaker storm, getting stronger and stronger on its entire trip from New Mexico tonight to somewhere over the central or eastern Great Lakes Wednesday.

This storm will be a giant wind bag. On its western flank, heavy snow and strong winds will create a blizzard from the central Plains to the western Great Lakes. Further to the northwest in the northern Plains and Rockies, the first truly super bitter cold air blast from Canada will send temperatures wicked far below zero. 

The cold air might or might not infiltrate all the way to the Pacific Northwest. If it does, cities like Seattle and Portland could be in for some Vermont-style January air and winter storms later this week. 

 However, the forecast out there is as uncertain as it can get. Right now, temperatures in Seattle midweek could be i the single numbers, could be in the 50s.

Just keep 'em guessing, I guess. 

The storm will draw warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico into the South and Southeast, setting the stage for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes tomorrow and Tuesday. 

Along the East Coast, the storm will create strong winds, heavy rain and probably flooding, some of it possibly pretty extensive in New York, New Jersey

This could easily be the nation's first of the year disaster or weather event causing a $1 billion or more in damage. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Just what Vermont doesn't need: Another storm capable of causing a lot of damage. But the potential is there with this one Tuesday night and Wednesday.

I see a ton of similarities between this storm and the one that blasted Vermont in December, 2022 with destructive winds. It might not be as bad as December 2022 ,but it's definitely one to keep an eye on.

Chances are it won't be as destructive as that flood on December 18-19, but a lot of nastiness is on the table for us. The worst problem will probably be high winds, power outages and tree damage. The other issues might be flooding again, and some snow and ice at the onset and end of the storm. 

High winds

The storm will still be intensifying as it goes by to our west Wednesday. Meanwhile, it will be bumping up against strong high pressure up in eastern Quebec.

This will cause a squeeze play that could cause some impressive winds in Vermont. Since the winds would be coming from the southeast, it should set up a classic downslope windstorm along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

It's a little too soon to tell just how strong the winds will get and how widespread they'll be.  Gusts to or over 70 mph aren't out of the question, at least if current forecasts hold.

The potential is definitely there. A high wind watch is already up for the length of the western slopes from the Canadian border at least down to the Rutland/Bennington county line. 

Similar downslope winds could cause trouble in the Northeast Kingdom, too. 

Snow/Ice

The start of the storm could create a quick thump of wet snow, then freezing rain for parts of the state as wet, warm air blasts into Vermont. The snow and mix could hit just as the winds are ramping up, so that could contribute to additional power outages.

The tail end of the storm could also feature crashing temperatures that will quickly freeze water on the roads and cause a mess. Did I say water? Why, yes I did. Because it's going to rain, too.

Rain/Flooding

All this beautiful snow we received today isn't going to last long. A blast of warm air looks like it will sweep into Vermont on those strong southeast winds and change everything over to rain.

It could rain pretty hard, too. That'll have to be watched because the combination of heavy rains and snow melt can easily cause flooding. Once again, it doesn't look as bad as December, but still worth noting. 

On the plus side, the water content of the snow we have now is less than the wettest of the snow on the ground prior to December 18. It won't get as warm as it was on December 18, so the snow won't melt as fast, either. 

On the other hand, the ground in much of Vermont is frozen, at least near the surface, so rain and snowmelt would run off into rivers and streams instead of soaking in. 

It's a little early to predict how high rivers will get, but at this point, the chances of minor flooding on some waterways looks pretty decent.

The forecasts for this storm, like all storms, will get refined, updated, shifted and eventually more detailed as we get close to the event. As always, I'll chime in with updates as this comes along.

After this storm goes by, long range forecasts are starting to suggest another large storm affecting Vermont and the rest of the Northeast next Saturday. 

A busy month indeed.  

Wednesday Morning Update: A Weird Stormy Nation. Snow/Sleet To Hit Us In Vermont

A very colorful National Weather Service map means
a very stormy day for the U.S. All those pinks and
reds from Oregon to Maine are winter storm
and blizzard warnings. 

 As advertised, it's as stormy and weird in the U.S. as it can get as a strange weather pattern of very cold air in the Southwest, with unprecedented warm to hot air in the Southeast has become established. 

That kind of huge contrast always leads to storminess and that's definitely happening now. Vermont update is below, but I have to pause and look at how bizarre the weather is once again in the United States. 

STORMY, WEIRD NATION

The weather set up was  already getting volatile, judging from the strong storms and likely tornado in Mercer County, New Jersey on Tuesday that damaged a number of buildings. The National Weather Service will make a determination later today whether to confirm the storm as a twister.

A continuous line of winter storm warnings extends from eastern Nevada to coastal Maine, at least if you include the Canadian version of a winter storm warning over southern Ontario and Quebec. 

Blizzard warnings are embedded in that band in parts of Wyoming, the Dakotas and Minnesota. 

An  ice storm is still on deck in a long narrow strip from central Iowa, through the southern parts of Illinois, Michigan and Ontario, Canada and into western New York. 

Some severe thunderstorms and possibly a tornado might occur today in parts of Oklahoma and Missouri, though luckily this does not look like it will be an intense outbreak. 

In California, Arizona and Nevada, high winds will buffet the region to make the unusually cold air feel even chillier. A cold storm in southern California in the coming days will produce some lowland flooding, and snow as low as 1,000 feet above sea level. That means the famous Hollywood sign could be covered in snow. People there have not seen snow that low in decades.

A rare blizzard warning is up for the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Up to a foot of snow could fall at the 2,000 foot level, which is, again, incredibly low. Up to five feet of snow could pile up in the summits above 4,000 feet by Monday. I believe this is the first ever blizzard warning issued by the National Weather Service office in Los Angeles.

Meanwhile, a huge area of the Southeast is set for all time record high temperatures for February. Readings of 80 degrees or above are forecast Thursday as far north as Washington DC.

VERMONT UPDATE

The Wednesday morning updated snowfall prediction map
from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington,
Areas north of Route 4 are expecting a solid 6-12 inches.
Less in southern Vermont due to a mix with sleet. 

With all these contrasts and that volatility, it's inevitable that we'll have a storm.  It's been advertised all week, and it does arrive tonight. 

The winter storm watch has been upgraded to a warning roughly north of Route 4.  A winter weather advisory is up along and south of Route 4. As expected, we've seen some minor adjustments in the snow totals. It looks like most places north of Route 4 can expect a solid 6 to 12 inches out of this. 

Areas to the south will see a bunch of sleet mix in especially as we had toward dawn tomorrow. That will keep accumulates down to four or five inches. 

On the bright side, the layer of warm air aloft that's producing the mixed precipitation is thick. That means rain will re-freeze on the way down to become sleet. There won't be much freezing rain, which is liquid and freezes on contact into a glaze when it hits the surface. 

It looks like the snow will start in southwestern Vermont at roughly 7 p.m. tonight, spread into central Vermont by around 9 p.m. and cover the north between 10 p.m. and midnight. 

The first wave of snow, and southern sleet will be the heaviest, coming through mostly between midnight and dawn Thursday.  A rumble or two of thunder is not out of the question during this. It will be challenging on the roads tomorrow morning, so I expect a lot of school closings and delays and trouble on the highways. 

I still see  a risk of a forecast bust with this. If the warm air aloft pushes further north than expected - which might happen - the heavier sleet would get further north into at least central Vermont, too. 

Most of Thursday will be in a sort of lull with light snow and sleet falling most of the day, but not amounting to a huge amount. The sleet mix looks like it might make it at least as far north as Route 2. 

Another wave of precipitation, not as big as the first, will come through later Thursday and Thursday night. This wave could have a little freezing rain with it in southern Vermont.  Northern Vermont will probably get another few inches of snow,  Some sleet might mix in across parts of the north Thursday evening, but that will trend more toward snow overnight. 

This storm will also end a remarkable 18 consecutive February days in Burlington that got above freezing. (Though it was below 32 degrees most of Wednesday, it was in the mid-30s just after midnight).

You'll be digging out in some real cold air on Friday. Highs will only be in the low teens with temperatures below zero in most places Friday night and early Saturday. 

A small storm will fling a few snowflakes at us amid milder temperatures Sunday. Another larger, messy storm seems likely Monday night and Tuesday. 

   

Weird U.S. Weather Week Starts, We'll Wait A Few Days For Our Turn In Vermont

The map on the home page of the National Weather Service
is getting colorful, especially west. That means plenty
of weather alerts due to a developing, sprawling storm.
These colors will spread east in the coming days 
with the storm.

 As advertised, a week of weird, extreme weather has started in much of the nation.

I noticed this  morning the National Weather Service hone page map is getting quite colorful. That's always a sign of weather trouble, because the colors depict various storm warnings, watches and advisories. 

It will keep spreading eastward as time goes on, finally hitting us in Vermont Wednesday night through Thursday night. 

Yesterday, we already talked about the record heat expected in the Southeast this week. 

If the East is warm, chances are the West will be cold, and that's definitely the case. Snow levels this week could drop as low as 1,000 feet above sea level in the Los Angeles area. Places like the foothills in the San  Fernando Valley which almost never see snow have a good shot of experiencing some flakes later this week.

Passes over the mountains, like the I-5 Grapevine, could become impassable. Expected high temperatures in Los Angeles later this week are only in the low 50s. That's a good 15 degrees below normal.

I'm still impressed by how much snow is expected over such a huge area of the nation from the storm that is developing. 

Winter storm watches and warnings, with a few embedded blizzard warnings this morning stretched all the way from near the Oregon coast to Wisconsin. Those watches and warnings will almost definitely be extended all the way to northern New England by mid to late week. 

The central and northern Plains and the upper Midwest are used to snowstorms, but this one looks a lot deeper than  your traditional winter fare.

Forecasters are already giving the Minneapolis-St. Paul area a 90 percent chance of seeing at least a foot of snow. More than two feet is not out of the question. 

At least a foot of snow is forecast from Wyoming to Wisconsin as well. There's a chance snow that deep could reach Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, but that is still iffy at the moment. 

South of that broad band of snow, forecasters have increasing fears of a damaging ice storm in a large band extending from northern Illinois, through southern Michigan, southern Ontario, western and central New York and on into southwestern New England,

That ice threat is not cast in stone quite yet. But if it develops, a lot of people are going to lose electricity for some time. 

VERMONT UPDATE

Though things can radically change, it's still steady as she goes for the forecast for the mid to late week storm here.

A small system today, and a slightly larger one tomorrow will spread some spotty rain and snow through the state. We could see enough snow to create slick spots on some of the roads Tuesday. But only a dusting to two inches is in the cards. That might be mixed with rain in the valleys.

The main show still looks like it will run Wednesday night to early Friday morning. The expected snow will wax and wane during that time. Still, an early read on this suggests we could get a foot or more of snow in at least some parts of Vermont. 

We also have the question of how far north sleet and freezing rain reaches. Southern Vermont is still most at risk for this .

The models have trended a bit colder this morning for this storm, which would favor snow. The problem is, the models could easily flip flop back to warmer air aloft. So it's still a big question mark as to what exactly will fall from the sky over Vermont mid to late week. 

Just Some Of The Examples Of Wild Weather In U.S.

Virtually all of the nation east of a Portland, Oregon -
El Paso, Texas line is under wind chill, or storm 
alerts as of this afternoon. The huge red area in the
northern Plains is an immense blizzard warning.
Pink is winter storm warnings. The vast majority
of the blue shadings are wind chill alerts 

The long-anticipated horribly cold weather and winter storm was ramping up to full throttle in the United States this afternoon, and it will only get worse. And spread.  

So far, three deaths have been attributed to the storm, originating from vehicle crashes on icy highways in Kansas and Oklahoma. 

That toll will surely rise as dangerous conditions worsen and cover more territory. 

Various dangerous situations have already been cropping up. For instance, about 100 people were stranded in cars amid a blizzard and scary wind chills on Interstate 90 between Rapid City and Wall, South Dakota. 

The wind chill there during this whiteout was in the minus 40s below zero. 

As of 2:15 p.m. early afternoon, more than 1,900 flights in the United States were canceled and nearly 4,800 were delayed, according to flightaware.com

That number, not surprisingly, has been rising all day. Not only from cumulative effects but the fact the bad weather was quickly spreading. 

When the Arctic cold front hit any particular location, people living there sure knew it. 

When the cold front arrived in Denver, it was powerful enough to create a haboob (dust storm). The temperature fell from 41 degrees to 5 degrees in just one hour. The temperature fell 61 degrees between 2 p.m. and midnight in Denver  

The temperature ultimately ended up at 24 below in Denver Thursday morning, the second coldest December temperature on record in the Mile High City. 

Down in Amarillo, the temperature fell from 42 degrees to 11 degrees in just an hour.

Cheyenne, Wyoming was even more impressive. The temperature there fell by 32 degrees in just nine minutes when the cold front blustered through yesterday. 

Meanwhile, in Casper, Wyoming sank to 42 below zero, it's coldest temperature for any date on record. Data for Casper goes back to 1939.

Further east, things weren't really that bad in Chicago until about 11 a.m. local time today. Then, the front arrived, the temperature plunged snow broke out and the wind picked up. It'll keep deteriorating out there the rest of the day and night. 

Grocery and hardware stores, liquor outlets and cannabis distributors in Chicago reported huge crowds of people stocking up before the storm arrived, reports the Chicago Tribune.

Buffalo, New York often gets buried in lake effect snow, but it rarely rises to the level of full blown blizzard because the winds during these things aren't strong enough to qualify. 

Not this time. 

It's raining in Buffalo, now. But starting tomorrow morning, it's a completely new reality. An ugly one. Buffalo is forecasting 37 inches of snow, winds gusting to 65 mph and wind chills going way below zero. I can't imagine how tall the snow drifts will be when all that is said and done. 

Winter storms usually don't warrant a presidential briefing, but President Joe Biden was filled in on the chaos today from the National Weather Service."This is really a very serious weather alert here," Biden told reporters after the briefing. "This is not a snow day when you were a kid. This is serious stuff."

So far, temperatures in at least 18 states have dipped below zero, and that's not including the wind chill. That number will go up.

There is light at the end of the tunnel. This huge winter blast won't last all that long. Long forecasters indicate that virtually the entire Lower 48 will be bathed in at least slightly above normal temperatures within a week. 

 

Wednesday Morning Storm Update: Giant Storm, Arctic Blast Still On Schedule

A very colorful National Weather Service home page map
from this morning means lots of weather hazards and that's
certainly the case now through Friday at least.

If you go to the National Weather Service homepage. www.weather.gov, and if you see the map of the United States is really colorful, that's bad news. It means there's a lot of weather hazards.  

This morning, the NWS home page map of the U.S. was lit up like a Christmas tree as a holiday giant storm and Arctic blast begins to make its moves on the nation. 

Most of the colors are different shades of blue, indicated various wind chill warnings and alerts. Other blues are winter storm watches. The hot pinks are winter storm warnings. Reds are blizzard warnings.

Here in Vermont, we have kind of an ugly brown, indicating a high wind watch. The browns indicating wind will expand as the storm draws nearer.  I've got more details and updates on what to expect in the Green Mountain State a little further down in this post. 

I've only seen picky little changes in the forecast for the nation as a whole, so this looks pretty inevitable.

It's hitting hardest on what will be two of the busiest travel days of the year. 

The Washington Post reports that there are 47,554 scheduled flights in the United States on Thursday (including two that my husband and I are taking, fingers crossed) and another 44,300 flights on Friday. 

Most airlines issued weather waivers to help travelers avoid fees and fare differences if they have to rebook a flight due to the storm.  I bet there will be a TON of waivers involved. Conservative estimates in the Washington Post suggest we'll see at least 5,000 flight cancelations or delays on Thursday.

This will extend to the East Coast by Friday.  Little to no snow is in the forecast along Interstate 95.  But high winds and heavy rain Friday in the entire region are sure to screw up at least some flights.

Meanwhile, an estimated 102 million people will drive at least 50 miles to their holiday destinations between Thursday and January 2.

It seems there are always storms to screw things up during the Christmas holiday, but this one is much worse than usual.

One of the problems is the storm's expected immense size. A 1,000 mile wide swath of the northern United States is expected to see wind gusts of at least 40 mph. Many areas will see gusts much stronger than that. 

A vast area from Kansas and Missouri up through the entire Great Lakes region is under winter storm watches, warnings or blizzard warnings. Most of the northern and central Rockies are also under winter storm warnings.

An even more immense area is under wind chill alerts or soon will be.  Draw a line from Spokane, Washington, to El Paso, Texas. Almost everyone east of that line will experience bone chilling to highly dangerous wind chills between now and Christmas Day. 

It's one of those holidays where everyone will have to take a deep breath (behind a scarf if necessary) be patient and be safe.  If you have misgivings about setting off, because it looks a little dangerous on the roads, listen to your gut. Better to postpone that holiday cheer than not live to enjoy it, right?

I'm sure we'll be hearing of some fatalities in the U.S. from this storm, through people getting caught outdoors in Arctic conditions, or being involved in a highway pileup, or a house fire, or something. It's all tragic, but if people take care, we can minimize the danger. 

Power outages will be pretty widespread from Minnesota to New England, and from Ontario and Quebec down to the southern United States. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

So far only a few more details and minor changes to the storm outlook here in the Green Mountain State.  

The National Weather Service in South Burlington
issued this wind forecast map this morning.
Areas in orange could easily see enough wind to
cause power outages Friday. Darker orange and 
red areas feature gusts to at least 60 mph. 

I guess we'll take things in order of when they will happen

MIXED PRECIP

As the storm's warm front comes at us Thursday night, mixed precipitation will break out, especially east of the Green Mountains. 

There probably will be some light accumulation of snow, sleet and ice in several areas, but a strong burst of warm air should send temperatures above freezing by early Friday morning. This won't be a huge deal, but will cause some slippery roads.

HIGH WINDS

The wind is forecast to ramp up pretty quickly, probably before dawn Friday morning and last for several hours. Strongest winds will be on the west slopes of the Green Mountains. I wouldn't be surprised to see reports of gusts to 70 or 80 mph in the most vulnerable spots, like Cambridge, Underhill, Huntington, Hanksville, Mendon, Shrewsbury and Wells.

According to the National Weather Service in South Burlington, often, when there's snow on the ground, a temperature inversion sets up in these situations.  The inversion can act like a lid, so when high speed air starts descending the west slopes of the Greens, it hits the top of that inversion and bounces off.  Which means the strongest winds don't make all the way down the slopes into the valleys.

That might try to happen this time, but the NWS has concluded this storm is so strong and intense, that even if an inversion sets up, the winds stand a good chance of overwhelming any inversions and spread into valleys.

Moreover, the strong winds might not stick close to the western slopes of the Green Mountains everywhere. In the northern Champlain Valley, the damaging winds could extend all the way to Route 7 and Interstate 89.  Might happen near Rutland, too. It's not definite, but certainly possible, that damaging winds gusts of up to 60 mph could reach population centers in and around Rutland, Burlington and St. Albans. 

Even people who don't get the downslope winds off the Green Mountains will see strong gusts. Power outages are possible everywhere in Vermont, as winds could reach at least 50 mph almost everywhere.

FLOODING

As the storm's powerful cold front approaches, a band of heavy rain will come just ahead of it. This will help squelch the winds to an extent, but cause a new problem: The risk of flooding.  Temperatures will rocket upwards into the low 50s. 

Most places will see a quick 1.5 inches or so of rain, and melting snow will add the equivalent of about another inch. We'll see rapid runoff, with small streams and brooks being a problem at first during the day. 

Then main stem rivers will rise.  That will be more dangerous than usual because the water levels in the bigger rivers would peak while temperatures are rapidly falling. (More on that in a sec). Most rivers in the state are at risk of minor flooding, you know, covering some of the roads and things like that. 

At this point, the rivers that show the most risk of causing problems are the Mad River and Otter Creek.  The Winooski River at Essex Junction/Williston could get interesting, too.

FLASH FREEZE

As the cold front blows through in the late afternoon and evening, temperatures will probably drop from the low teens to below freezing within a couple hours, and continue downward into the teens within a couple hours after that. 

Rain would turn to snow, but the snow won't last long or accumulate much.  But such a rapid freeze will ice up the roads pretty instantaneously. Even the main roads would have trouble, never mind the back roads. Travel trouble seems inevitable late Friday afternoon and evening across Vermont.

AFTER THAT

Winds will continue to howl all Friday night and into Saturday, but at least not as strong as they probably will have on Friday.  It might take awhile to clean up the expected power outages. The low temperatures and nasty wind chills Friday night through the weekend will probably add to the misery and make repairing power lines difficult. 

A PROGRAM NOTE

I will be traveling very early Thursday morning, so I will only be able to post what will probably be brief update very early, like 2:30 or 3 in the morning.  You'll find the update at www.matttsweatherrapport.blogspot.com.  Note the three "t's in matts in the URL. I'll also post the early update to my Twitter and Facebook accounts, so look there. 

I'll also try to update through the day if my travel schedule allows. 

 

 

North Dakota Weather Exhaustion. Now The Serious Flooding Sets In

The National Weather Service page for Bismarck, North
Dakota on Saturday had every kind of weather alert
imaginable from blizzard to tornado warnings. 

 Readers of this here blog thingy have surely noticed my fascination with North Dakota of all places in the past few weeks. 

It seems like all the extreme weather in the world has been ganging up on this state, and in parts of Manitoba across the border in Canada.

As the Saturday screenshot from the National Weather Service office in Bismarck shows, almost every kind of bad weather imaginable was hitting the state. 

This include a tornado warning, a tornado watch, severe thunderstorm warning, flood warning, flash flood warning flood advisory, winter weather advisory, blizzard warning and high wind warning. 

About the only thing I'm not seeing there is hurricane warnings or tsunami warnings. The weather chaos has now evolved into a flood problem in eastern North Dakota, and the flooding might spread into blizzard-weary western parts of the state this weekend. 

According to the Grand Forks Herald: 

"In Greater Grand Forks, the weather service is predicting the Red River will crest at 48.5 feet mid-week. The river has already seen a quick jump - just before noon Saturday, April 23 he Red was at 28.93 feet; by early Sunday afternoon, the river was up to 39.7 feet.  

The expected crest on Wednesday would be the sixth highest on record at Grand Forks, where records go back to the 1880s.

The highest Red River flood at Grand Forks, and by far the most devastating was the 54.35 foot crest on April 22, 1997. 

During that flood, most of Grand Forks, including downtown was flooded. Fires broke and destroyed eleven large downtown buildings, including the building housing the Grand Forks Herald newsroom. The paper managed to keep publishing anyway. 

This obelisk in Grand Forks, North Dakota measures flood 
heights on the Red River. The river is forecast to be 
just a few feet lower than the all-time record high
crest at the top of the obelisk, from 1997

Even if the Red River unexpectedly crests higher than forecast, it won't be as devastating as in 1997 because of $1 billion in flood control projects along the river since then.  

This year's episode of flooding gets worse the further north you go. The Red River flows northward along the North Dakota/Minnesota border into Canada. Near Oslo, Minnesota. the river is expected to crest less than half a foot below the all-time record high. 

Widespread flooding has also advanced into Manitoba, Canada. Weather continued to create problems for people battling the floods.  Normal high temperatures in the region this time of year are in the mid-50s.  Monday's highs were only in the mid-20s.  

Though it will warm up somewhat during the week in the flood zone, a new, wet storm is expected to hit Friday and over the weekend. 

Further west, snow and cold is the problem.  Since April 12, it's only gotten above 50 once in Bismarck ,North Dakota. This in a city that normally has high temperatures of around 60 degrees this time of year. 

However, flooding is a good possibility even in western North Dakota as the next storm this weekend appears more likely to cause heavy rain, and not another blizzard.

I'm sure North Dakota is lovely, in its own way, but I'm sure glad I don't live there this spring! I'd rather take the mud underfoot, the drizzly days and snow flurries we've had in Vermont for sure.