Storms Blasting Across Nation Causing Constant Problems, Vermont Gets Part Of The Action, Too

Early guess at snowfall through Thursday. An inch or less
of this is the snow showers today. The rest is what happens
Wednesday night and Thursday. Forecasters say this
is a really uncertain forecast and subject to change. 

Storm clouds are gathering over America, and for once, I'm not talking about politics. 

That spray of storms blasting west to east across the United States are coming even more fast and furiously than they were last week. 

They're coming with new intensity, and will be causing plenty of varied problems now through the weekend.  And probably beyond.

There's going to be a lot of weather headlines in the next few days. We in Vermont get to participate in this, too. 

More more on that in a minute. First, the big picture.

THE STORM PARADE

It's gotten almost hard to keep track of which storm is doing what, but we'll give it a go. 

One storm has spread winter storm warnings today from Kentucky to Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey. 

The storm is spreading an ugly mix of several inches of snow, along with freezing rain along its path.  An ice storm warning is up for parts of West Virginia. Washington DC is expecting three to six inches of snow, with four to eight inches just to the south and west of the nation's capital.

This one should zip off the Mid-Atlantic coast later today. 

Another storm is hot on the heels of that one, but it's going much further to the north than the first. It has already brought winter storm warnings to Kansas, Missouri and Iowa, where five to eight inches of snow is forecast.

The storm will bring rain to some areas of the Mid-Atlantic States and Tennessee Valley that are seeing snow and ice today, so that could bring some flooding problems. Freezing rain is expected again in areas around Pennsylvania that already saw two ice storms last week.

The third and most powerful storm of the series is next up in the queue. The storm is prompting flood concerns up and down the California coast for later this week. They're really worried in areas that had those horrible wildfires in southern California. 

Torrential rains will probably to lead to debris flows in the wildfire zones, as a few inches of rain could fall.

The storm will eventually head east from California, triggering severe weather and possible tornadoes in the South on Saturday.  The storm carries a large area of flood risk this weekend from Louisiana to West Virginia.  This storm will eventually evolve into a nor'easter that will spread snow into the Northeast over the weekend. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

So what does this all mean for us in Vermont? What follows is the breakdown, as best as we can tell now. There's so many moving parts that the confidence in the accuracy of what you're about to read is just so-so. Expect changes to the forecasts, especially for Thursday and the weekend. 

Storm #1, 

The one hitting the Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley today will completely miss us here in Vermont, but that doesn't mean we have a calm day ahead.

A cold front set to arrive this afternoon should set off some snow showers and possible snow squalls, especially across the northern half of the state. The timing is such that they would arrive for the afternoon and evening commute, so it might be a challenge getting home later today - for some of us anyway. 

Accumulations won't amount to much, maybe an inch or two in spots. But sudden changes in road conditions and visibility out on the highways is a recipe for chaos on Interstate 89 and 91. Mostly caused by the minority of drivers who still cannot fathom how to drive in the winter, and thus screwing things up for the rest of us. 

Storm #2

This next one, the one going much further north than the first, will introduce a burst of snow to the region mostly late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. 

The main part of this storm is going by just our northwest, which introduces a twist to our recent snowy regime.

The storm's path will pull in some warm-ish air. The snow that will start light and fluffy will turn heavier and wetter Thursday, then mix with or change to sleet, freezing rain and even rain briefly for many of us.  There's still a lot of questions as to how much schmutz will mix in, and how warm it will get.  Areas west of the Green Mountains will probably briefly rise above freezing. 

An early guess on total snow and ice accumulation is two to four inches, with more in northern New York. But there's a big bust potential with this.  There could be more ice and rain than expected, which could cut down on the totals. Or, less likely, it could stay unexpectedly chilly and keep everything snow.  Stay tuned, I guess on this one. 

Storm #3

Ah yes, the more powerful one, the devil that will cause chaos from California to Canada. We will almost definitely get something out of this in Vermont, but exactly what is a question mark. I've seen forecasts giving us a bullseye of heavy snow, perhaps the biggest of the winter.

Other models take the storm inland, which would mean we get to experience the joy of mixed precipitation again. A few other models take the storm too far south to give northern Vermont much of anything. 

If you have weekend plans, just keep an eye on this one and be ready to adjust those plans if needed. 

 

Wednesday Morning Update: A Weird Stormy Nation. Snow/Sleet To Hit Us In Vermont

A very colorful National Weather Service map means
a very stormy day for the U.S. All those pinks and
reds from Oregon to Maine are winter storm
and blizzard warnings. 

 As advertised, it's as stormy and weird in the U.S. as it can get as a strange weather pattern of very cold air in the Southwest, with unprecedented warm to hot air in the Southeast has become established. 

That kind of huge contrast always leads to storminess and that's definitely happening now. Vermont update is below, but I have to pause and look at how bizarre the weather is once again in the United States. 

STORMY, WEIRD NATION

The weather set up was  already getting volatile, judging from the strong storms and likely tornado in Mercer County, New Jersey on Tuesday that damaged a number of buildings. The National Weather Service will make a determination later today whether to confirm the storm as a twister.

A continuous line of winter storm warnings extends from eastern Nevada to coastal Maine, at least if you include the Canadian version of a winter storm warning over southern Ontario and Quebec. 

Blizzard warnings are embedded in that band in parts of Wyoming, the Dakotas and Minnesota. 

An  ice storm is still on deck in a long narrow strip from central Iowa, through the southern parts of Illinois, Michigan and Ontario, Canada and into western New York. 

Some severe thunderstorms and possibly a tornado might occur today in parts of Oklahoma and Missouri, though luckily this does not look like it will be an intense outbreak. 

In California, Arizona and Nevada, high winds will buffet the region to make the unusually cold air feel even chillier. A cold storm in southern California in the coming days will produce some lowland flooding, and snow as low as 1,000 feet above sea level. That means the famous Hollywood sign could be covered in snow. People there have not seen snow that low in decades.

A rare blizzard warning is up for the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Up to a foot of snow could fall at the 2,000 foot level, which is, again, incredibly low. Up to five feet of snow could pile up in the summits above 4,000 feet by Monday. I believe this is the first ever blizzard warning issued by the National Weather Service office in Los Angeles.

Meanwhile, a huge area of the Southeast is set for all time record high temperatures for February. Readings of 80 degrees or above are forecast Thursday as far north as Washington DC.

VERMONT UPDATE

The Wednesday morning updated snowfall prediction map
from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington,
Areas north of Route 4 are expecting a solid 6-12 inches.
Less in southern Vermont due to a mix with sleet. 

With all these contrasts and that volatility, it's inevitable that we'll have a storm.  It's been advertised all week, and it does arrive tonight. 

The winter storm watch has been upgraded to a warning roughly north of Route 4.  A winter weather advisory is up along and south of Route 4. As expected, we've seen some minor adjustments in the snow totals. It looks like most places north of Route 4 can expect a solid 6 to 12 inches out of this. 

Areas to the south will see a bunch of sleet mix in especially as we had toward dawn tomorrow. That will keep accumulates down to four or five inches. 

On the bright side, the layer of warm air aloft that's producing the mixed precipitation is thick. That means rain will re-freeze on the way down to become sleet. There won't be much freezing rain, which is liquid and freezes on contact into a glaze when it hits the surface. 

It looks like the snow will start in southwestern Vermont at roughly 7 p.m. tonight, spread into central Vermont by around 9 p.m. and cover the north between 10 p.m. and midnight. 

The first wave of snow, and southern sleet will be the heaviest, coming through mostly between midnight and dawn Thursday.  A rumble or two of thunder is not out of the question during this. It will be challenging on the roads tomorrow morning, so I expect a lot of school closings and delays and trouble on the highways. 

I still see  a risk of a forecast bust with this. If the warm air aloft pushes further north than expected - which might happen - the heavier sleet would get further north into at least central Vermont, too. 

Most of Thursday will be in a sort of lull with light snow and sleet falling most of the day, but not amounting to a huge amount. The sleet mix looks like it might make it at least as far north as Route 2. 

Another wave of precipitation, not as big as the first, will come through later Thursday and Thursday night. This wave could have a little freezing rain with it in southern Vermont.  Northern Vermont will probably get another few inches of snow,  Some sleet might mix in across parts of the north Thursday evening, but that will trend more toward snow overnight. 

This storm will also end a remarkable 18 consecutive February days in Burlington that got above freezing. (Though it was below 32 degrees most of Wednesday, it was in the mid-30s just after midnight).

You'll be digging out in some real cold air on Friday. Highs will only be in the low teens with temperatures below zero in most places Friday night and early Saturday. 

A small storm will fling a few snowflakes at us amid milder temperatures Sunday. Another larger, messy storm seems likely Monday night and Tuesday. 

   

Vermont Finally Has First Freeze While Weather Pattern Set To Turn Wild Again

Hand print in the frost on my truck this morning, St. 
Albans, Vermont. Growing season is over for this year.

Much - but not all - of Vermont was below freezing early this morning, ending a remarkably long growing season for many of us. 

Northern and central Vermont outside parts of the Champlain Valley were icy this morning, with temperatures generally between 29 and 32 degrees as of 6 a.m.  

The northern Champlain Valley away from the immediate shore of the lake did have a frost and freeze, as demonstrated by the thick layer of ice on my truck windshield in St. Albans this morning. 

Plattsburgh, New York was also below freezing before dawn today. 

St. Johnsbury established its record for the latest first autumn freeze on record as it finally got below 32 degrees there early this morning.  The old record was October 21, 1905, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington. 

Montpelier will not be setting a record for latest freeze. It was 31 degrees there this morning, so their latest freeze record of October 31, 1975 will stand. 

Burlington looks like it just barely missed a freeze this morning, but broke its record for the latest first 40 degree reading.  It got down to 35 degrees in Burlington this morning, so that establishes the record for the latest first 40 degrees. The old record was October 21, 1975.

Plants we wanted to save were warm and snuggly inside our
house this morning after my husband Jeff remembered to
bring them indoors ahead of this morning's frost.

The record for the latest first frost in Burlington is November 1, 1920.  There's a very good chance of a frost and freeze in the Burlington area tonight, so that record could well stand.  If you somehow escaped having any frost damage outside your house and you still want to bring plants indoors, better do it today. 

Normally, I wouldn't make a big deal about frost in late October so it's so common, but in this topsy turvy weather year, what was once normal is now strange. Go figure.

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN

Two days ago, I mentioned heavy rain moving into California this weekend, the product of two intense storms and an atmospheric river. 

Since weather generally flows west to east, you can't expect the California storminess to just disappear. What goes on in California doesn't stay in California.  

 These systems will move across the nation, causing all sorts of hazards, and giving us in Vermont a really wet week.  That represents a change in the forecast, as the upcoming week was originally scheduled to be kind of dry.  More on that in a moment. 

In northern California, the storms will prove to be a little too much of a good thing.  They desperately need the drought relief, but the moisture coming into California is basically a fire hose.

Parts of northern California can expect seven or more inches of rain just on Sunday.  As these torrents blast the areas burned by recent wildfires, there could be massive and destructive debris flows. Parts of California have been placed under a high risk of this happening.

The initial wave of the California storminess has already come and gone out there, and is emerging into the Plains States. This is going to cause the first of two severe storm outbreaks in the middle of the nation. 

Some severe storms are forecast around parts of Nebraska, Iowa and Missouri today, but the main show comes Sunday. 

That will be centered in and around Missouri on Sunday, with tornadoes, large hail and damaging straight line winds expected.  This activity will shift into the southern and central Appalachians Monday. 

That second, stronger wave of storms off the Pacific Ocean will make their way into the Plains by Tuesday and Wednesday, promising another wave of severe storms and tornadoes. 

Usually, we expect big severe outbreaks to happen in the spring out there, but there's a smaller, secondary peak in activity in the autumn, and that's what we're experiencing.  This autumn's peak seems bigger than most years, as we've already seen tornadoes in Oklahoma earlier this month, and in Ohio and Pennsylvania just the other day. 

VERMONT IMPACTS

As noted, it's going to be a wet week.  Initial forecasts had the storm causing the severe weather this weekend to pass mostly south of us, but now, we're in on the action.  By the time the system gets here, it will have slowed down, so we'll have a long period of rainy weather starting late Sunday night and continuing at least through Tuesday. 

It might not rain constantly, but it will be wet most of the time during this period. During the onset, it might be cold enough on the mountain peaks for a couple inches of wet snow.  The vast majority of us will only see a chilly rain out of this, however. 

At this point, rainfall totals look like they will amount to a half inch to an inch Sunday night through Tuesday night. 

That second, stronger wave of storminess looks to affect us toward the end of the week.  Early indications show the potential for strong winds and heavy rain, but it's too early to know for sure. 

This is one of those evolving weather patterns, so I and everybody else will need to keep updating and making forecast adjustments as we go through the week

After Calm-ish Interlude, National Weather Getting Very Exciting Again

Beginning to see more colors show up on the National
Weather Service map. Big red area is fire danger, blue 
and pink further north is winter weather. In the coming
few days, this map will have a many more winter storm,
severe weather and flood alerts as things get 
really active again. 

After that mid-February Arctic blast in the nation, followed by a warm up and severe flooding in the Tennessee and Ohio valleys, the weather briefly calmed down quite a bit across the nation in early March.  

Those calm days are just about over, with the specter of big snowstorms, severe weather, tornadoes, floods and wildfires now looming over different parts of the nation. 

A deep upper low pressure system is digging into southern California.  That will help trigger needed rain and snow in the Golden State, which is good news in that drought-ridden state.

But that storm is causing warm, very dry winds in a broad area today from New Mexico into the central Plains. Wildfires have been an issue in recent days there, and it's only going to get worse today. A broad area that includes pretty much all of New Mexico, then extending through northern Texas into Oklahoma, Kansas and eastern Colorado should BOL for wild and rangeland fires today. 

SNOWSTORMS:

Parts of Colorado that are under fire alerts today will likely be buried under deep snow by Sunday. 

That upper level low in California will spin up a storm that has a classic set up for heavy snow on the front range of Colorado, including the Denver and Colorado Springs area. The storm will send wet winds from the east that will be forced to rise as elevation increases east to west in Colorado.

That sets the stage for an epic snowstorm.  Some computer models in recent days, trying to get a handle on the storm, tried to forecast up to five feet of snow in areas near Colorado Springs.  Those models are wrong, and they will NOT get that much snow. 

However, populated areas of Colorado could get one to two feet of heavy, wet snow, which raises worries over travel, and snow loading on trees and buildings. Stay tuned!

Further north a separate storm is already underway from Colorado through the Dakotas. Record highs in the 70s graced South Dakota Tuesday, with readings as high flirting just shy of 80 degrees around Lake Andes and Mitchell, South Dakota.'

That warm party is definitely over as a storm is now beginning to spread snow from Wyoming to, eventually, northern Minnesota, where there were also record highs Tuesday. Some areas in this long band of winter weather could get up to eight inches of snow.

Winter is not done yet! But next up, a dangerous sign of spring:

SEVERE WEATHER/FLOODS

That storm system is expected to raise the risk of severe weather and tornadoes in the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley over the next several days. A follow-up storm will keep things going into early next week. 

The storm that will produce a snowfall in the Dakotas today is even prompting the risk of severe weather pretty far north.  There's even a very minimal risk of a tornado or two in southeastern Minnesota and southwestern Wisconsin today.  That's awfully far north for such a risk this early in the season. 

The main show will start this weekend. There's still questions about the exact location and intensity of the severe weather in the South, but it is looking pretty inevitable. Though certainly not record breaking, it does look like it will be the worst and longest lasting severe weather outbreak so far this season, though thankfully, that's not saying much.  Still, this probably won't be as bad as the inevitable outbreaks toward April and May, the peak of the season. 

I do expect to see several tornadoes at least by early next week. It won't be a big deal if those twisters stay out of populated areas, but as we know, these systems are hit miss. 

Flooding is a worry again in the Tennessee and mid-Mississippi valleys as repeated storms rake over that area soaked by heavy rain a week ago. The heavy rain will extend westward into areas like Kansas and Missouri, which have been on the dry side, so that's good.

However, even in the dry areas, the rain early next week might be heavy enough to cause some high water issues there. 

VERMONT IMPACTS

Spring fever hits today and tomorrow, after parts of the region got a taste of it Tuesday.

My still-snowy back yard in St. Albans, Vermont this 
morning. It will be interesting to see how much less
snow there is here in two days with the nice mild
air moving in. I'll snap a comparison pic on Friday. 

The sun came out in earnest over the southern half of Vermont Tuesday, where highs reached 49 in Springfield and 51 in Bennington.  Clouds kept the north chillier, near 40 degrees.

After a freeze to help the maple sugarers early this morning, temperatures will rocket into the low 50s today under sunny skies. It'll be pretty breezy in the Champlain Valley, but that's OK.

South winds tonight will keep temperatures up, especially west, and that sets the stage for a really warm Thursday.  

Those south winds will continue. Since we'll start out much warmer Thursday morning than the 20s that are starting today, Thursday afternoon looks warmer, too.  Some of us could touch 60 degrees, though it will be cloudier than it is today. 

The record high in Burlington tomorrow is 56 degrees, which happens to be the "coolest" of all the daily record highs for March. (All the other record highs in Burlington range from 57 to 84 degrees). This gives us a shot at a record high Thursday, since temperatures are expected to reach the upper 50s under those continued south winds. 

Other places in Vermont are iffy for record highs.  For instance, Montpelier's record high is 61 degrees, so they probably won't make it. 

But, this is Vermont in March, so expect a roller coaster. After the balmy weather today and tomorrow, a cold front comes in Friday. 

There will be little rain along this first cold front, and it doesn't have a lot of oomph with it, so Friday will still be pretty nice for this time of year, with highs well into the 40s to around 50.

But a second, stronger front is due Friday evening. Again, it doesn't have a lot of water to work with, but it still seems destined to give us some possible snow squalls and another flash freeze as temperatures plunge.

A third cold front Saturday night or Sunday will sprinkle a few more snow showers on us and make it even colder. Highs Sunday and Monday will stay below freezing, and lows will get into the single numbers again. Another slap from winter. 

Don't worry, it'll warm up again a little after that, though temperatures in the 50s are out of the picture for awhile.  March, um, marches on, so we have to expect more and more thaws as we keep heading toward and into spring. 

It also looks like that storminess in the middle of the nation will weaken as those systems head east and shear out to our south, meaning we in Vermont won't get much precipitation - rain or snow- from those storms.