California Dreaming: Early, Welcome Start To Wet Season Out There

Predictions call for more then ten inches
of rain in parts of northern  California
over the next seven days.

The headlines regarding California's drought have been growing ever more dire, and I see little prospect of improvement. 

Except.  

Storminess is moving in that will if nothing else raise Californians' spirit, and even end the wildfire season in the northern parts of the state.

Some of the most devastating and deadly northern Californian fires have hit in late October and November in recent years. For instance the fire that all but destroyed the northern California city of Paradise and killed 85 people was in November, 2018.  

This year, the first heavy rains are moving in during mid-October. The drenching should suppress any ongoing fires and prevent new ones. 

Forecasts for the next week call for up to ten inches of rain in some sections of northern California.  Most areas from the San Francisco Bay area and Sacramento could easily see three or more inches of rain by next Tuesday.

Several feet of snow could fall on the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada.

This would effectively end the fire season in that part of wildfire and drought plagued California. 

Even areas between the Los Angeles area and San Diego could see a half inch or more of rain out of this by early next week.  

One big autumn storm will not solve California's serious water crises. The state's "water year" runs from October 1 through September 30.  The one that just ended on September 30 of this year was California's driest since 1924. 

Big cities like Los Angeles, San Francisco and Sacramento had less than half the rain they should have during the 12 months ending on September 30.

As previously reported, reservoirs like Lake Mead are at dangerously low levels and would probably need a string of wet winters to fully recover. 

Still, this early taste of water from an expected atmospheric river off the Pacific Ocean puts Californians in a good frame of mind.  If the weather pattern persists through the winter - a very, very iffy proposition - then Californians can relax just a bit next spring. They'd still probably be in drought, but not as bad as the conditions they have now.

The only drawback to the heavy northern California rains over the next week is a legacy of the intense drought they've had.  Wide areas of the landscape are burned over by wildfires from this year, and recent years.

With the vegetation burned away, soils are no longer held in place. There will be flash flooding and debris flows and mud slides coming up.

Since southern California is just getting a glancing blow from these wet weather systems, the intense drought will hold firm there, despite the brief wetting. 

In fact, there's still time after this rain for things to dry out again.  Fire season isn't over in southern California if drying, strong Santa Ana winds develop as they often do in the late autumn and early winter.