National Weather Pattern Now Getting Wilder But Vermont To Stay Calm For Quite Awhile

Sign of a weather pattern turning active in much of the nation
Snow sticking to the highway this morning in Loveland
Pass, Colorado

Aside from some fairly serious flooding in the Southeast, the weather pattern in the United States has been pretty calm so far this month.

That's about to end. 

Fires, wind, severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods and snow are all going to be in the news for the next several days.  

Spoiler: We here in Vermont are going to be bystanders to all this, as we continue to enjoy mostly fair, and warmer than normal temperatures for at least a week, quite possibly more. 

The jet stream is getting more amplified.  What that means is instead of a more or less west to east flow in the atmosphere, there are now bigger southward dips and northward bulges developing. When this happens, the weather almost always gets more interesting.

In this case, the big southward dip in the jet stream will be pretty much centered in the Rocky Mountains while the big northward bulge has set up over eastern North America. 

This pattern sets up a series of problems, one of which is unique to this time of year. 

California is just to the west of that big dip in the jet stream.  That sets up central and northern California in particular for very dry, strong northeast winds.  It's the type of set up that makes for the most dangerous fire weather they can get.  Some of the worst California fire disasters in recent years happened amid this type of pattern.

The winter rains haven't really hit yet, so it's still really dry amid their drought. And this is the first real autumn wind storm of the season.  This will be an occasional problem until soaking rains arrive - hopefully - later this fall. 

I'm not saying California is in for another extreme fire disaster, but there is a risk Monday and Tuesday.  Fire weather watches and high wind watches are already in effect for this scenario.

The area between the dip and the bulge in the jet stream is where stormy weather develops, and the Great Plains and parts of the Midwest are looking pretty nasty in the upcoming week. 

Meanwhile, in my St. Albans, Vermont backyard, beautiful
and peaceful and warm autumn weather continues.

An initial outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is expected tomorrow in Oklahoma and parts of Eastern Texas, and probably around the Great Lakes Monday.

Another round of severe weather looks likely Tuesday in the southern Plains as this weather pattern holds firm.  The Plains storminess will also lead to heavy rains, especially in North Dakota. That's actually a good thing since that state has been in a punishing drought all  year.

In the colder Rockies, the first widespread snows of the season will be coming in now through next week. 

While all this is going on, we in Vermont will be literally sitting pretty amid the fall foliage. The weather pattern will hold firm for at least a week, so we won't have any really exciting weather to talk about.

When those storms from the Midwest try to barge in on the big ridge of high pressure over the Northeast, they weaken rapidly in the dry air. By the time those storms get here, we have nothing more than clouds and perhaps light showers to speak for them. 

Temperatures through next Friday will range from somewhat above normal to well above normal.  At this point, Tuesday looks like it might be the warmest day. If there's enough sun, a few places in the Green Mountain State might see their last 80 degree reading of the year.