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| Storminess over the next seven days will unleash a lot of rain across much of the nation. The orange areas on the West Coast and New England can expect more than six inches of rain over the next week. |
It got down to 32 degrees at the National Weather Service observing site at the airport in South Burlington at 7 a.m. this morning. So the record for the latest first freeze of the season stands at November 1, 1920.
Some big asterisks with this record, though. In 1920, temperature readings were taken closer to Lake Champlain than they are now. It's usually a bit balmier in the morning this time of year near the lake because of the lingering warmth in the lake water.
It's possible - I would say likely - that there was an earlier freeze in 1920 at the site of the future airport than on November 1 that year. It was 33 degrees on October 13 and 30 in the 1920 data, so it was probably 32 or lower on October 13, 1920 at the South Burlington site where temperatures are now recorded.
For this week, we're going to go from frosty to wet. Very wet, probably in southern Vermont. Though northern Vermont will also get in on some rain action.
Two major storms will affect New England, one centered tomorrow and Tuesday, the other hitting around the weekend.
After this morning's frost melts off, it will actually be a pretty nice day in Vermont. There will be a fair amount of sunshine, and temperatures will pop up into the seasonable 50s by afternoon.
As I said yesterday, there will be changes to this week's forecast due to a complicated weather pattern, and that iffiness seems to be bearing out, at least to some extent.
Rain will move into Vermont late tonight and tomorrow morning with an initial push of moisture. Rainfall at this point looks like it might become for sprinkly and drizzly during the afternoon. But it will still be a raw, dark, icky Monday. Temperatures wills stay in the 40s.
The best guess is that about a half inch of rain will fall on most of us with Monday's wave of wet.
It now looks like a pretty powerful nor'easter will get going just off the New England coast Tuesday. That will concentrate the rain in southern New England and southern Vermont, though all of the Green Mountain State should have a wet Tuesday.
The National Weather Service in South Burlington says the nor'easter will bring about a half inch of rain to the Northeast Kingdom to 1.5 inches in southern Vermont.
It hasn't been super wet lately, so this rain shouldn't lead to any real flooding in Vermont.
Southern and eastern New England will probably have to contend with some flooding, coastal erosion and gusty, possibly damaging winds with this system on Tuesday.
We get a break in the action midweek before the next storm arrives for the weekend. There's plenty of questions as to exactly where that one will go and how strong it will be. But there's still potential for strong winds and heavy rain with it. We'll have to wait and see how that plays out.
TROUBLESOME NATIONAL WEATHER
What might well become the strongest storm on record off the Pacific Northwest coast is looming today and tonight. The core of the storm won't come ashore, so there won't be a devastating wind storm like what happened during a similarly strong, but closer and windier storm in 1962.
However, this storm continues to drive at atmospheric river of water into northern California, so they're still bracing for flooding and debris flows, especially near where there were recent big wildfires. Evacuations are ongoing.
Meanwhile, the storm that will eventually develop into the New England nor'easter on Tuesday is today unleashing the threat of tornadoes in and around Missouri, and a substantial risk of flash flooding in parts of Illinois and Indiana.
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