After Calm-ish Interlude, National Weather Getting Very Exciting Again

Beginning to see more colors show up on the National
Weather Service map. Big red area is fire danger, blue 
and pink further north is winter weather. In the coming
few days, this map will have a many more winter storm,
severe weather and flood alerts as things get 
really active again. 

After that mid-February Arctic blast in the nation, followed by a warm up and severe flooding in the Tennessee and Ohio valleys, the weather briefly calmed down quite a bit across the nation in early March.  

Those calm days are just about over, with the specter of big snowstorms, severe weather, tornadoes, floods and wildfires now looming over different parts of the nation. 

A deep upper low pressure system is digging into southern California.  That will help trigger needed rain and snow in the Golden State, which is good news in that drought-ridden state.

But that storm is causing warm, very dry winds in a broad area today from New Mexico into the central Plains. Wildfires have been an issue in recent days there, and it's only going to get worse today. A broad area that includes pretty much all of New Mexico, then extending through northern Texas into Oklahoma, Kansas and eastern Colorado should BOL for wild and rangeland fires today. 

SNOWSTORMS:

Parts of Colorado that are under fire alerts today will likely be buried under deep snow by Sunday. 

That upper level low in California will spin up a storm that has a classic set up for heavy snow on the front range of Colorado, including the Denver and Colorado Springs area. The storm will send wet winds from the east that will be forced to rise as elevation increases east to west in Colorado.

That sets the stage for an epic snowstorm.  Some computer models in recent days, trying to get a handle on the storm, tried to forecast up to five feet of snow in areas near Colorado Springs.  Those models are wrong, and they will NOT get that much snow. 

However, populated areas of Colorado could get one to two feet of heavy, wet snow, which raises worries over travel, and snow loading on trees and buildings. Stay tuned!

Further north a separate storm is already underway from Colorado through the Dakotas. Record highs in the 70s graced South Dakota Tuesday, with readings as high flirting just shy of 80 degrees around Lake Andes and Mitchell, South Dakota.'

That warm party is definitely over as a storm is now beginning to spread snow from Wyoming to, eventually, northern Minnesota, where there were also record highs Tuesday. Some areas in this long band of winter weather could get up to eight inches of snow.

Winter is not done yet! But next up, a dangerous sign of spring:

SEVERE WEATHER/FLOODS

That storm system is expected to raise the risk of severe weather and tornadoes in the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley over the next several days. A follow-up storm will keep things going into early next week. 

The storm that will produce a snowfall in the Dakotas today is even prompting the risk of severe weather pretty far north.  There's even a very minimal risk of a tornado or two in southeastern Minnesota and southwestern Wisconsin today.  That's awfully far north for such a risk this early in the season. 

The main show will start this weekend. There's still questions about the exact location and intensity of the severe weather in the South, but it is looking pretty inevitable. Though certainly not record breaking, it does look like it will be the worst and longest lasting severe weather outbreak so far this season, though thankfully, that's not saying much.  Still, this probably won't be as bad as the inevitable outbreaks toward April and May, the peak of the season. 

I do expect to see several tornadoes at least by early next week. It won't be a big deal if those twisters stay out of populated areas, but as we know, these systems are hit miss. 

Flooding is a worry again in the Tennessee and mid-Mississippi valleys as repeated storms rake over that area soaked by heavy rain a week ago. The heavy rain will extend westward into areas like Kansas and Missouri, which have been on the dry side, so that's good.

However, even in the dry areas, the rain early next week might be heavy enough to cause some high water issues there. 

VERMONT IMPACTS

Spring fever hits today and tomorrow, after parts of the region got a taste of it Tuesday.

My still-snowy back yard in St. Albans, Vermont this 
morning. It will be interesting to see how much less
snow there is here in two days with the nice mild
air moving in. I'll snap a comparison pic on Friday. 

The sun came out in earnest over the southern half of Vermont Tuesday, where highs reached 49 in Springfield and 51 in Bennington.  Clouds kept the north chillier, near 40 degrees.

After a freeze to help the maple sugarers early this morning, temperatures will rocket into the low 50s today under sunny skies. It'll be pretty breezy in the Champlain Valley, but that's OK.

South winds tonight will keep temperatures up, especially west, and that sets the stage for a really warm Thursday.  

Those south winds will continue. Since we'll start out much warmer Thursday morning than the 20s that are starting today, Thursday afternoon looks warmer, too.  Some of us could touch 60 degrees, though it will be cloudier than it is today. 

The record high in Burlington tomorrow is 56 degrees, which happens to be the "coolest" of all the daily record highs for March. (All the other record highs in Burlington range from 57 to 84 degrees). This gives us a shot at a record high Thursday, since temperatures are expected to reach the upper 50s under those continued south winds. 

Other places in Vermont are iffy for record highs.  For instance, Montpelier's record high is 61 degrees, so they probably won't make it. 

But, this is Vermont in March, so expect a roller coaster. After the balmy weather today and tomorrow, a cold front comes in Friday. 

There will be little rain along this first cold front, and it doesn't have a lot of oomph with it, so Friday will still be pretty nice for this time of year, with highs well into the 40s to around 50.

But a second, stronger front is due Friday evening. Again, it doesn't have a lot of water to work with, but it still seems destined to give us some possible snow squalls and another flash freeze as temperatures plunge.

A third cold front Saturday night or Sunday will sprinkle a few more snow showers on us and make it even colder. Highs Sunday and Monday will stay below freezing, and lows will get into the single numbers again. Another slap from winter. 

Don't worry, it'll warm up again a little after that, though temperatures in the 50s are out of the picture for awhile.  March, um, marches on, so we have to expect more and more thaws as we keep heading toward and into spring. 

It also looks like that storminess in the middle of the nation will weaken as those systems head east and shear out to our south, meaning we in Vermont won't get much precipitation - rain or snow- from those storms.