No Joke: April Fool's Snow On The Way

Will parts of Vermont receive an April Fool's Day gift like
this? Or will it be mostly rain. Mother Nature is being a
trickster and a return to winter might be at hand.

We've had so much springlike weather lately, you'd think winter is over. 

Ha! Jokes on you!  

After what will be another delightful day to day, and a warm first half of Wednesday, winter will make a triumphant return for many of us Wednesday night and Thursday. 

Apparently, there's already a winter storm watch in effect for the Adirondacks of New York

It's a little hard to get information this morning, since the National Weather Service web site was not working as of early today, so I'm piecing together things best I can without them. 

A cold front is working its way in from the west. Out ahead of it, warm south winds are taking over, erasing the relative chill we had yesterday and last night.  Despite some increasing high clouds, temperatures will get to 60 degrees or a little above that in all the valleys. 

Rain and showers will overspread Vermont tomorrow afternoon and evening, going basically from west to east. 

Sharply cold air will come in behind the front tomorrow night as a storm forms along the cold front and moves up along the East Coast into New England while strengthening.   

That will pump moisture back our way, and essentially we'll have a nor'easter on our hands.

It'll be a race between the cold air and the time the best moisture from storm finally departs to determine how much snow everyone will get. 

Generally speaking, the further north and west you go, the more snow will pile up.  That explains the winter storm watch in the Adirondacks. 

The rain/snow line will gradually work eastward early Thursday morning.  How fast and to what extent depends on the intensity of the cold air and how far inland the coastal storm goes.  A more westward storm track would spare most of Vermont from the heaviest snow.  More of us would get in on the action with a track more along or jus off the coast.

Chances are good it will be snowing in the Adirondacks by midnight or just a little after.  Before dawn, the snow will start working into northwestern Vermont, as current forecasts indicate.

At this point in Vermont, I'd say the northern Champlain Valley and higher elevations west of the Connecticut River valley from about Killington north would see the most snow- a few to several inches.  Southeastern Vermont will probably get little if any snow out of this. 

This forecast will naturally change as we get closer to the event, so of course I'll update you in the coming days about any adjustments. For most of us, temperatures will be marginal, so there's a fine line between a heavy, wet snowstorm and mostly just a cold rain.  Where that line sets up over or near Vermont is going to be the big question.

Thursday's weather looks awful by the standards of this time of year. Heavier snow in the northwest will taper off to snow showers and gradually retreat to the mountains. But cold, strong north winds will continue as temperatures stay close to the freezing mark.

It'll stay cloudy, windy, raw and cold Thursday night and Friday, so the snow won't immediately melt away.  Plus, we'll endure additional light snow showers through Friday, especially north and mountains. Sometimes, April Fool's Day jokes linger painfully. 

Even so, for those of you who do get a fair amount of snow accumulation, it won't last all that long, at least in the valleys. A warm up will start Saturday, and by Sunday and Monday, daytime highs will be within a few degrees of 50 or so. 

Whether any part of Vermont gets mostly rain or mostly snow, we still need the moisture, badly. The last two storms under performed, at least in terms of rainfall. Heading into the spring, we want to build up more ground moisture to overcome last year's lingering drought. 

Most of us could get a good inch of rain or melted snow out of this which is good.  Especially since the water from the sky is probably going to get shut off again at least through mid-April.  After this storm, only weak systems with very light precipitation are expected for the next couple of weeks at least.