Snow Update: Not Quite As Big A Crocus Crusher As First Thought, But Still

Forecasts for todays snow have been lowered. Only a few
favored mountain locations will probably get more
than six inches of snow. Elsewhere in the north
expect two to six inches.

I woke up to a few changes in today's April Fool's Day snowstorm in parts of Vermont and New York, and the news is marginally good if you don't like spring snow. 

Yes, many areas will still get that long advertised crocus crusher snow today in Vermont and New York.  It's just that the crushing won't be quite as intense as first thought. 

The winter storm warning in northern New York is canceled. The winter weather advisory in New York and northwest Vermont is still there, but snow totals will be somewhat less than first feared

Several factors will keep snow totals down below earlier forecasts: 

Although the cold front did speed up a little last evening and make its way through Vermont, the cold air behind it didn't rush in as quickly as first thought.  

It was still raining in Burlington with a temperature of 37 degrees at 7 a.m.  But Burlington did flip to snow as of 8 a.m. At my place in St. Albans, it was mixed rain and snow at 7 a.m. , with a dusting of accumulation on the ground.  Temperatures were still a little above freezing.  

However, by 8 a.m., it was all snow in St. Albans and coming down a little harder.  Elevations above 1,500 in northern Vermont were solidly in the snow since sunrise, too.

Crocuses in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens getting
snowed on this morning. 

Temperatures were still slowly declining as of dawn today and will continue to do so for a few hours at least. That will change rainy areas to snow.  The snow in northern New York will be able to continue. 

But by the time enough colder air comes in, the storm along the New England coast will be moving away.  

The storm's forward motion is quicker than first forecast, so the heavier precipitation won't last as long.  Snow will be lighter, more showery and more focused on the mountains by mid-afternoon.  

On top of that, the bulk of the snow is falling during daylight hours. There is of course a very thick overcast in place. But some heat from the high spring sun angle can get through, which could try to melt a little of the snow as it accumulates.

The bottom line is most places that were already snowing at dawn can expect two to six inches of snow with spot areas in the high elevations getting more than that.  The areas I'm talking about here are northwestern Vermont north of Burlington, and in higher elevations down through central Vermont. 

Northern New York will have similar amounts, if not just a tiny bit more. 

Most places in the valleys of central and southern Vermont will only get a dusting to two inches, probably. 

If you like spring weather, you have to take the good with the bad. Some of you might be relieved that we won't get as much snow as originally forecast. But predictions still do seem accurate for a cold snap.

That means overnight lows in the upper teens and low 20s tonight and Friday night and temperatures in the low 30s this afternoon and Friday afternoon.

That predicted warm up next week won't be quite as warm as first thought, either. It'll be OK, but it looks like 60s are off the table.

Stalled storms love to meander near the New England coast this time of year. These tend to add a lot of April gloom and chill to the season.  One such storm will actually move westward toward New England from the Atlantic early next week. 

Vermont, as is normal with that setup, won't be as affected as the coast, which faces chilly, foggy breezes off the water due to that storm.  Here, we'll get some clouds, and a little cooler than it otherwise would be.  

Expect high temperatures in the upper 40s over the weekend. Early next week, there will be upper 40s east and low to mid 50s west.  That's still not bad for this time of year, just not as glorious as first planned. 

Wednesday Evening Update: Snow/Winter Blast Still On For April Fool's Day

 Here in Vermont, we had another warm spring day with temperatures this afternoon within a few degrees of 60.  

As I write this at 6 p.m. Wednesday, spring is just about now going to come to a crashing halt, at least for now.

The strong cold front that is part of the reason why much of Vermont and surrounding areas are in for an April Fool's Day snow was just coming into the Champlain Valley. 

That's a bit faster than projected, and it means it's going to stall out a little further to the east than forecasters thought this morning.

I'm not sure that's going to mean much of a difference in the forecast with this snow, other than to start it a little earlier than projected in some areas.  But some of the deepest moisture might be a little more to the east, or if not that, the atmosphere west could dry out a bit sooner. 

I'm guessing the bottom line is northern New York and northwestern Vermont will still get the same amount of snow as originally predicted - four to nine inches by the time it's all said and done.  East of the northern Greens, there might be a couple more inches more than expected, maybe in the two to six inch range?

Southeastern Vermont is still expected to get very little snow. 

The main storm is still expected to ride north along this front overnight and tomorrow. That puts us on the cold side of the storm. 

The rain with the cold front is mostly behind it. From my office window looking west toward the Adirondacks as of 6 p.m., I can now see the rain blurring away the mountains as the front pushes in.

It will abruptly turn colder behind the front. You'll feel it this evening as temperatures go immediately down into the 40s when the cold front comes through your location. . After that abrupt cooling, temperatures will ever so slowly fall from the low 40s through the 30s until it's cold enough to snow. 

That'll almost certainly be a few hours before dawn in New York State, and probably at or a little before sunrise across northwest Vermont. 

Especially for those west of the Green Mountains and roughly north of Route 4, you might be in for an unpleasant commuting surprise. When you get up in the morning, it could still be raining where you are, but change the snow before you get in the car. 

Or, you'll travel west toward your destination and hit a quick changeover to wet snow.

This snow is part of a sharp, but brief cold wave affecting the eastern United States. A few record lows are possible in the Southeast, but these won't be the coldest temperatures on record for this time of year 

The problem is one we are increasingly having in a climate change spring season. It's been unusually warm for the most part over the past month so fruit trees and other crops in much of the South are way ahead of schedule. They're blooming and starting to set fruit in some cases.

This cold snap and freeze could cause some widespread and expensive agricultural losses.  We've had this type of situation frequently over the past decade, most notably in 2012 and 2017.

We're not as far along up with spring up here in Vermont, but still way ahead of schedule. It will be interesting, and perhaps sad, to see whether any early buds get nipped by this. 

The snow won't hurt them, but overnight temperatures in the upper teens to around 20 degrees Thursday and Friday nights could have an impact. 

We're still expecting a warmup starting Saturday and continuing into next week.

No Joke: April Fool's Snow On The Way

Will parts of Vermont receive an April Fool's Day gift like
this? Or will it be mostly rain. Mother Nature is being a
trickster and a return to winter might be at hand.

We've had so much springlike weather lately, you'd think winter is over. 

Ha! Jokes on you!  

After what will be another delightful day to day, and a warm first half of Wednesday, winter will make a triumphant return for many of us Wednesday night and Thursday. 

Apparently, there's already a winter storm watch in effect for the Adirondacks of New York

It's a little hard to get information this morning, since the National Weather Service web site was not working as of early today, so I'm piecing together things best I can without them. 

A cold front is working its way in from the west. Out ahead of it, warm south winds are taking over, erasing the relative chill we had yesterday and last night.  Despite some increasing high clouds, temperatures will get to 60 degrees or a little above that in all the valleys. 

Rain and showers will overspread Vermont tomorrow afternoon and evening, going basically from west to east. 

Sharply cold air will come in behind the front tomorrow night as a storm forms along the cold front and moves up along the East Coast into New England while strengthening.   

That will pump moisture back our way, and essentially we'll have a nor'easter on our hands.

It'll be a race between the cold air and the time the best moisture from storm finally departs to determine how much snow everyone will get. 

Generally speaking, the further north and west you go, the more snow will pile up.  That explains the winter storm watch in the Adirondacks. 

The rain/snow line will gradually work eastward early Thursday morning.  How fast and to what extent depends on the intensity of the cold air and how far inland the coastal storm goes.  A more westward storm track would spare most of Vermont from the heaviest snow.  More of us would get in on the action with a track more along or jus off the coast.

Chances are good it will be snowing in the Adirondacks by midnight or just a little after.  Before dawn, the snow will start working into northwestern Vermont, as current forecasts indicate.

At this point in Vermont, I'd say the northern Champlain Valley and higher elevations west of the Connecticut River valley from about Killington north would see the most snow- a few to several inches.  Southeastern Vermont will probably get little if any snow out of this. 

This forecast will naturally change as we get closer to the event, so of course I'll update you in the coming days about any adjustments. For most of us, temperatures will be marginal, so there's a fine line between a heavy, wet snowstorm and mostly just a cold rain.  Where that line sets up over or near Vermont is going to be the big question.

Thursday's weather looks awful by the standards of this time of year. Heavier snow in the northwest will taper off to snow showers and gradually retreat to the mountains. But cold, strong north winds will continue as temperatures stay close to the freezing mark.

It'll stay cloudy, windy, raw and cold Thursday night and Friday, so the snow won't immediately melt away.  Plus, we'll endure additional light snow showers through Friday, especially north and mountains. Sometimes, April Fool's Day jokes linger painfully. 

Even so, for those of you who do get a fair amount of snow accumulation, it won't last all that long, at least in the valleys. A warm up will start Saturday, and by Sunday and Monday, daytime highs will be within a few degrees of 50 or so. 

Whether any part of Vermont gets mostly rain or mostly snow, we still need the moisture, badly. The last two storms under performed, at least in terms of rainfall. Heading into the spring, we want to build up more ground moisture to overcome last year's lingering drought. 

Most of us could get a good inch of rain or melted snow out of this which is good.  Especially since the water from the sky is probably going to get shut off again at least through mid-April.  After this storm, only weak systems with very light precipitation are expected for the next couple of weeks at least.