Wednesday Evening Update: Snow/Winter Blast Still On For April Fool's Day

 Here in Vermont, we had another warm spring day with temperatures this afternoon within a few degrees of 60.  

As I write this at 6 p.m. Wednesday, spring is just about now going to come to a crashing halt, at least for now.

The strong cold front that is part of the reason why much of Vermont and surrounding areas are in for an April Fool's Day snow was just coming into the Champlain Valley. 

That's a bit faster than projected, and it means it's going to stall out a little further to the east than forecasters thought this morning.

I'm not sure that's going to mean much of a difference in the forecast with this snow, other than to start it a little earlier than projected in some areas.  But some of the deepest moisture might be a little more to the east, or if not that, the atmosphere west could dry out a bit sooner. 

I'm guessing the bottom line is northern New York and northwestern Vermont will still get the same amount of snow as originally predicted - four to nine inches by the time it's all said and done.  East of the northern Greens, there might be a couple more inches more than expected, maybe in the two to six inch range?

Southeastern Vermont is still expected to get very little snow. 

The main storm is still expected to ride north along this front overnight and tomorrow. That puts us on the cold side of the storm. 

The rain with the cold front is mostly behind it. From my office window looking west toward the Adirondacks as of 6 p.m., I can now see the rain blurring away the mountains as the front pushes in.

It will abruptly turn colder behind the front. You'll feel it this evening as temperatures go immediately down into the 40s when the cold front comes through your location. . After that abrupt cooling, temperatures will ever so slowly fall from the low 40s through the 30s until it's cold enough to snow. 

That'll almost certainly be a few hours before dawn in New York State, and probably at or a little before sunrise across northwest Vermont. 

Especially for those west of the Green Mountains and roughly north of Route 4, you might be in for an unpleasant commuting surprise. When you get up in the morning, it could still be raining where you are, but change the snow before you get in the car. 

Or, you'll travel west toward your destination and hit a quick changeover to wet snow.

This snow is part of a sharp, but brief cold wave affecting the eastern United States. A few record lows are possible in the Southeast, but these won't be the coldest temperatures on record for this time of year 

The problem is one we are increasingly having in a climate change spring season. It's been unusually warm for the most part over the past month so fruit trees and other crops in much of the South are way ahead of schedule. They're blooming and starting to set fruit in some cases.

This cold snap and freeze could cause some widespread and expensive agricultural losses.  We've had this type of situation frequently over the past decade, most notably in 2012 and 2017.

We're not as far along up with spring up here in Vermont, but still way ahead of schedule. It will be interesting, and perhaps sad, to see whether any early buds get nipped by this. 

The snow won't hurt them, but overnight temperatures in the upper teens to around 20 degrees Thursday and Friday nights could have an impact. 

We're still expecting a warmup starting Saturday and continuing into next week.