Confirming That Global February Was "Cooler" But Still Historically Hot

On a global basis, February, 2021 was definitely warmer
than normal, but still the coolest February since 2014. 
Very cold areas in North America and northeastern Europe
drove the global average down a bit. 

A week or two ago I speculated that global average temperatures for February would be dragged down somewhat this year because of unusually cold weather in the United States and parts of Siberia.   

Sure enough, that happened, but regardless, February was still quite a bit warmer than historical averages. The global temperature for February as 1.17 degrees above average, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

That doesn't sound like much, but when you average out all the cold and warm spots the world came have in a month, that's actually pretty darn warm. 

Still, it was the coldest February on Earth since 2014.  Of the 142 years they've been keeping track of this, there have been 15 Februaries warmer than this year's. For the record, everyone under the age of 45 years old has never seen a February with global temperatures below average.

Judging from the maps the NECI put out with this data, it seems many of the cold spots were really cold and some of the warm spots were especially toasty. 

The obvious cold spots this February were much of North America,  Scandinavia and a good chunk of Siberia.

The really hot spots were large sections of Asia, eastern Canada and much of southern and western Europe.  

Two large scale weather patterns ganged and conspired to make this February a little colder than other recent second months. This amounted to a slight and temporary easing of climate change trends 

La Nina, a periodic cooling of the eastern Pacific Ocean, tends to cool the global temperatures. In the Northern Hemisphere, something called the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation took hold in February.   

That negative phase makes the jet stream much wavier. Deep dips in the jet stream in this case in North America and northeastern Europe caused extreme cold in these areas. That extreme cold was enough to help drive down overall global temperatures, if you average them out. 

The more negative the Arctic Oscillation, the colder it gets, especially in the winter in North America. This year tied with Februaries of 1978 and 1969 as the most negative. Both those years were notoriously cold in North America.  

The negative Arctic Oscillation pretty much worked itself out, so it's not helping to cause any kind of extreme weather. It's been weakly negative this month, which has been helping to produce some pretty chilly outbreaks around New England, but those have been interrupted by mild spells. 

Additionally, La Nina is beginning to show some signs of weakening.  There is a lag, though from when a La Nina fades to when that trend has an effect on global temperatures. 

Though it's anybody's guess, I don't think March will have the degree of slight global "cooling" that February had.  If I had to guess, I'd say it will be in the Top 10 warmest. 

We'll find out when those updated numbers come in somewhere around mid-April.