Crocus Crusher Snowstorm For Some Of Us Thursday

Latest snow forecasts from the National Weather Service
office in South Burlington, Vermont. Areas in yellow
and orange could see more than six inches of snow
by Thursday night. 

It was a mild spring morning in much of Vermont today, with some areas holding near a balmy 50 degrees as dawn broke.   

No April Fool, though, some of us in northern Vermont and northern New York are still in for an April 1 crocus crusher snowstorm tomorrow

THE FORECAST

The overall forecast remains similar to what the meteorologists have been saying since yesterday.

A cold front will slowly come through from west to east later this afternoon and early evening. It'll stay mild, but cloudy ahead of it, with temperatures in the 50s. 

That's still pretty warm for this time of year. 

Once the front passes, you'll immediately notice the change in the air as temperatures drop and rain continues.  Overnight, as the chilly air deepens,  the cold rain will change to snow from west to east. 

Where the deepest snow accumulates depends on how fast cold air can work east. 

The rain/snow line at any given time during this thing overnight and Thursday morning could set up a little west or a little east of current forecasts, so that will determine the amount of snow any one place gets.

As of now, it looks like the northern and central Adirondacks look to be in the sweet spot for snow, with final accumulations of six to nine inches.  A winter storm warning is up for these areas. Higher elevations of the northern Green Mountains could see similar amounts as those in the Adirondacks.

The northern Champlain Valley is up for three to six inches of snow. Northwestern Vermont is under a winter weather advisory. Amounts taper off as you go south and east, so that the Connecticut Valley will probably get an inch, if that.  

Be aware that road conditions for the Thursday morning commute won't be good at all.  It's been awhile since we had a decent snowfall, so maybe you're out of practice driving in winter conditions. The Thursday afternoon trip might not be great either, but by then, the snow will falling more lightly. 

Where the heaviest snow falls, there could be some power outages, as the snow will be wet and heavy.

As always, the caveat: Results may vary. If forecasters are a little off one way or the other during the storm, some areas could get more, or less snow than current projections

COMPARING APRILS SNOWS

I'll emphasize this won't be the biggest April snowstorm on record. Not even close. 

Still, this is a classic April snowstorm set up, with a cold front stalls in New England, and develops a sort of backwards orientation running from northwest to southeast.  (Cold fronts are usually oriented from northeast to southwest. This is  called a "negative tilt," and really helps to bring in lots of water from Atlantic Ocean to dump on New England as rain and snow.

Two of the biggest April snowstorms on record in western Vermont had this setup. On April 16-17, 1983, a similar storm to the one this week deposited 15.3 inches of snow on Burlington.  Another storm with  similarities to the upcoming one dumped 14.3 inches on Burlington.

Though it bears repeating that Thursday's storm won't leave us with nearly that much snow as those historic snowfalls. 

These crocuses in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens will 
likely get smushed by the upcoming "crocus crusher" storm
but most early garden flowers should survive the 
snow and cold

In 1983 and 2000, the week after the storms continued with light, but accumulating snow to help keep the ground covered. Other than a few flurries, it won't keep snowing this time. Spring will return pretty fast. 

It will stay cold Friday, with high temperatures at or a little below freezing and overnight lows by Saturday morning in the upper teens to near 20.  

The only additional snow after this storm will be some light snow showers Friday, and perhaps a snow flurry or two Sunday morning. 

Those of us who receive a fair amount of snow will see it disappear pretty fast. It'll get into the mid-40s Saturday, near 50 Sunday and in the 50s Monday and Tuesday. 

AFTER EFFECTS

We could still use the precipitation, so the wetting will be good.  Most of Vermont is still regarded as in drought or abnormally dry, believe it or not.

There will be a fair amount of rain tonight before the changeover to snow, and of course that snow will melt into needed water. Overall it looks like many of us will get an inch of rain and melted snow, so that's not bad.

Of course, it still looks like it will be on the dry side for the next two weeks after this storm, so we'll still be short of precipitation.  We need several more soaking rains to erase the relative dryness for this time of year. 

For those of you who will get smacked by this snow, don't worry too much about it damaging spring. 

Many migrating birds that have returned north for the spring, only to encounter this snow.  They'll still find stuff to eat, but they won't have a much food or as much variety of fixins' for a few days. But they'll get through it fine.

As far as your garden goes, your crocuses and daffodils look delicate, but they'll survive.  I called this storm a crocus crusher, and some of these flowers will be smushed into the soil by all this snow, but some of them will survive to bloom after the snow melts.

Most daffodils aren't that far along yet, so they'll recover, too. Most of the very early season plants in your garden are built to withstand late season freezes. A few premature buds on shrubs and trees might get nipped by overnight lows near 20 during the snow and subsequent brief cold snap, but they too, should largely recover.