Tuesday, March 16, 2021

Up Next: Dangerous Tornado Outbreak In South

At this point, areas in red are most at risk for strong,
dangerous tornadoes Wednesday and Wednesday night
A widespread outbreak of tornadoes and severe storms looks like it's about to hit the South and this one could be especially dangerous. 

It appears the ingredients are coming together for some long lasting supercell thunderstorms capable of producing long-lasting, strong tornadoes.  

They'll hit an area that's populated more densely than the Plains. Worse, many of the worst storms and tornadoes might hit late at night, when people are sleeping and otherwise unaware of potential danger. 

This outbreak looks to be widespread, too. It'll extend from Texas and Oklahoma today, and reach its peak Wednesday and Wednesday night in Mississippi, Alabama, and parts of Arkansas and Tennessee. On Thursday, more dangerous storms and tornadoes are likely in the Carolinas and Georgia. 

It is impossible to know how many tornadoes, how strong they will be and where exactly they'll hit more than a few hours before the event.  Unfortunately, though, this one could prove fatal for some. It's that dangerous.

A tiny foretaste of what's to come hit relatively rural areas near Kansas City yesterday, damaging about 20 homes.

Later today and especially tonight, storms will fire up from Kansas to Texas.  A squall line will develop, and there's a chance that some rotating storms along this line could produce a few tornadoes.

The real show starts Wednesday, though. 

The day will start with ongoing storms, some strong, in parts of Arkansas, and eastern parts of Oklahoma and Texas. But that's not the real problem.

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, new storms will fire up in Arkansas, east Texas and maybe Louisiana.  Strong winds aloft, and a strong tendency for the wind to change direction with height, will quickly set off some rotating supercell thunderstorms in the afternoon. 

Given the forecast atmospheric conditions, there's a risk of strong, long-lasting tornadoes in eastern Arkansas, and parts of western Tennessee and Mississippi. 

Then, it could get even worse. Usually, thunderstorms wane after dark and the sun's heat goes away, causing instability to decrease,

In this case, though, according to Storm Prediction Center meteorologists, winds aloft will get even stronger, and that tendency for winds to change direction with height will increase, overcoming any loss of instability. 

Which means Alabama could be under the gun for strong tornadoes, many of which could hit late at night. People are sleeping at that hour and might not hear tornado warnings. People there being urged to have several, loud ways to receive tornado warnings in their bedrooms overnight, with NOAA weather radios and phone apps set to blaring sound levels. 

Legendary Alabama meteorologist James Spann is already urging Alabamans to be prepared. The city of Tuscaloosa, devastated by a tornado in the 2011 Super Outbreak, has already activated its emergency command center. People are taking this really seriously. 

The storms will roll on into the Southeast Thursday, and probably become re-invigorated during the day in Georgia and the Carolinas. More strong tornadoes are possible in this heavily populated region of the nation too. 

I'm sure we will be hearing plenty more news about this severe weather outbreak in the next couple of days. It's possible that this outbreak will be less than currently advertised, but that's unlikely.  Southerners are wise to stay vigilant throughout the next couple of days. 



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