3-Day Severe Storm/Tornado Outbreak Starting This Afternoon Could Be Worst Yet This Year

Areas in dark green, yellow, orange and red are at risk
for severe storms and tornadoes tomorrow. Areas in
orange and red are most at risk for tornadoes, and
some of them could be quite strong.

 A strong storm that might eventually lead to the chance of a decent snowstorm here in Vermont is about to cause some serious trouble in the south. 

Conditions seem ripe for a three-day outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes across the South.  Some of the tornadoes might be quite strong, and this could be the most intense storm outbreak so far this year. 

The news grew worse late this morning with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center upgraded today's risk across much of Arkansas and parts of surrounding states. 

What had been a forecast for some severe storms and maybe a tornado or two. Now, tornadoes are somewhat more likely in southern Arkansas and northwestern Mississippi, and a couple of the tornadoes could be quite strong.

The tornadoes that make the news tend to be strong ones, with winds of between 111 mph to over 200 mph.  The overwhelming majority of America's twisters are weaker, with winds of 70 to 111 mph. Those weaker tornadoes can certainly damage a lot of property and endanger lives, but there's not as risky as the stronger ones. 

Today's tornado risk in Arkansas isn't even really part of the large storm that's expected to develop. Instead, it's part of a smaller storm that is destabilizing the unseasonably warm, humid air today in the South. 

An even riskier day for tornadoes is in the card for tomorrow. That's when a powerful storm system will begin to get its act together over Texas. This new storm will introduce strong winds in the atmosphere, especially a few thousand feet overhead in the western Gulf Coast states.

Worse, this storm will introduce a lot of veering winds at different levels of the atmosphere, especially roughly in the area where Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana meet. 

Some strong tornadoes are possible there. Even areas that don't see any twisters could be subject to destructive straight line winds in powerful thunderstorms. 

On Friday, the risk of severe storms and tornadoes will move to a large portion of the Southeast. 

Storm experts are not saying a big storm outbreak with lots of tornadoes is inevitable. Instead, the potential seems high. There's still time for things to fall apart enough to produce fewer big storms. 

Although the worst U.S.  tornado outbreaks usually wait until April or May, you can get them in the winter. And the risk begins to ramp up in March, at least a little. 

Perhaps the nation's worst early March tornado outbreak came on March 2-3, 2012, when at least 70 tornadoes struck the Midwest and South, killing 41 people and causing an estimated $3.2 billion in damage. 

As I mentioned in a previous post, this winter has been unusually busy for tornadoes in the U.S., so this new outbreak isn't great news. 

One vaguely hopeful sign is a weather pattern change is expected to bring colder, drier air to larger portions of the United States during much of the rest of the month. Tornadoes thrive on humid, hot air, so if we're lucky, tornadoes will be suppressed for awhile.

Of course, peak season for tornadoes is April through early June, so it's almost impossible to say this far in advance whether the core of the severe storm season will be wild or mild.