Sunday Morning Storm Update: Southern Vermont Still Looks Like The Big Target

The latest snow forecast from the National Weather 
Service depicts a not big deal 3 to five inches of 
snow far north to a terrible, heavy wet foot and
a half far south. Southern Vermont looks 
locked in for a big storm. Far northern Vermont is
still a wild card. Up there, they could get far
more, or far less than what's depicted on this map.

 Today will be a lovely one to get outside before the weather in Vermont goes downhill in a hurry. 

Aside for increasing high clouds this afternoon ahead of the storm, we'll have a decent amount of sun for a change. It'll only get up to 40 degrees or so, but the sun and expected light winds will make it feel warmer than it really is. 

All great for winter sports, not bad for sugaring, and a small amount of snow will melt to make just a little room for the new snow that's coming. 

THE UPDATE

While all of Vermont is in for some lousy weather with the incoming, giant storm, it's still looking like it will be just a nuisance in far northern parts of the state, but a real challenge south. 

Most of the two southernmost counties of Vermont are now expecting nearly a foot and a half of snow. It's not out of the question that a couple high elevations in far southern Vermont could see more than two feet of snow out of this. So that's up there in the list of would be historic storms.

These areas missed much of the snow this winter, so I guess they're getting their comeuppance of sorts. 

This is going to be a heavy, wet snow, accompanied by quite a bit of wind. This is a recipe of a lot of power outages and tree damage.  Under this scenario, some power outages could last a few days. 

Central Vermont will be in somewhat less trouble, but will still have some real problems with this storm. Most of this area can expect 5 to 12 inches of wet snow. Though not as bad as a foot and a half, this is more than enough to cause trouble with power outages. 

The places in central Vermont that will be closer to a foot of snow are the usual suspects in somewhat higher spots on or near  the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. We're talking towns like Ludlow, Cavendish, Mount Holly, Shrewsbury, Killington - that neck of the woods. 

Northwestern Vermont is still the real wild card in this storm.  Will a surge of moisture dump a fair amount of snow up there? Or will dry air from Quebec squash that idea?

The National Weather Service has these worst case and best case scenario maps that go either way of the official prediction.  The maps show what would happen if the storm really over-performs or under-performs. 

In this case, the northern Champlain Valley is really questionable. For instance, the official forecast snowfall for St. Albans is 3.1 inches.  But the worst and best case maps give St. Albans either absolutely no snow, or as much as 10 inches.  Either extreme likely won't happen, but you can see the forecast challenge. 

Part of the issue is the time of year.  When it's snowing hard during the day in March, it can really pile up. If it's just light snow with thinner clouds, the sun's warmth can get through.  So the snow will often melt as it hits, or mix with rain. That might be part of the issue in northern Vermont along and north of Route 2. 

TIMING

Some light rain and wet snow could break out Monday afternoon. For the evening commute, I don't think it'll be that big a deal, except maybe a little bit in higher elevations. 

Overnight Monday, the precipitation will gradually pick up speed and the snow will start to accumulate. In low elevations, the snow could be mixed with some rain well into the evening. 

Where the heaviest snow hits, Tuesday will be the main show. Dense, wet snow will come down amid gusty winds in at least a few places. So you know what that will do to power lines and travel. 

The snow will ever so slowly taper off Tuesday night and Wednesday as the huge storm finally starts heading eastbound away from the New England coast. It'll stay windy through Wednesday, so power outages might continue into midweek.

WHAT TO DO

If you're in  northern Vermont, be on guard. This storm might be a bit of a big deal, or it could be a nothing burger.  If you need to run errands, do it today or Monday morning, just in case.  

In central and especially southern Vermont, get ready to stay home, and not travel on Tuesday. Also, stock up for possibly long power outages. That means get your  batteries, LED candles and all that set up.  Don't use candles with real flames. They're a fire hazard. If a blaze starts, don't count on the fire department to get to your place readily during the height of the storm.

Note that secondary and back roads in particular might not only be blocked by snow, but by fallen trees, branches and power cables. 

By the way, the Hudson Valley of New York, Catskills, much of New Hampshire, western and northern Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut are in the same boat as southern Vermont, so cancel your travel plans for those areas Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. 

Coastal New England, New York and New Jersey face heavy rain and snow, strong winds and possible shoreline flooding.