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| Snow forecasts are generally unchanged in Vermont since this morning but the afternoon updated map gives a little more snow to northern Vermont than previous forecasts |
For those of you who like certainty, I've got bad news: These forecasts will continue to shift even as we go through the actual storm.
Interestingly, the latest forecast snowfall map issued this afternoon is remarkably similar to the one the National Weather Service issued Saturday afternoon. The forecasts since Saturday have kept shifting up and down a little bit, and now we're back where we started from.
In hindsight, I guess they should have just kept running with Saturday's map. But nobody would have known that. Plus, there's no way this afternoon's forecast map is entirely accurate. Subtle shifts in temperature, wind and moisture will make big differences on what we actually end up with.
What gives me confidence in the overall forecast is the broad brush idea remains similar to what was in the forecast as long ago as last Friday.
SOUTHERN VERMONT
Far southern Vermont, especially the high elevations, is still part of ground zero for this storm.
Expected accumulations in Bennington and Windham counties keep shifting a little, just as they are for the rest of the region. But new snow will be deep, especially uphill from the lowest valleys. You're still screwed down there.
Many areas of the south will pick up at least a foot of snow. Some places might pile up 18 or more inches. It will be a wet, heavy snow propelled by wind, so power outages are still inevitable.
It has already been snowing off and on in the high elevations of southern Vermont this afternoon. There hasn't been much accumulation so far. Traffic web cams showed that high elevation Route 9 was still clear of snow as of 5 p.m.
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| High elevations in southern Vermont remain ground zero for the heaviest snow accumulations. Vermont Agency of Transportation web cam grab from 5 p.m. Monday shows light snow already starting to accumulate just a bit along Route 9 in Marlboro. |
That will change overnight. The snow will gradually pick up in intensity, and it will be snowing hard by morning. The bulk of the snow will come down during the day Tuesday and into at least part of Tuesday night.
On Tuesday, snow will come down at a rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour, which is a lot for a wet snowstorm.
Depending on where the heaviest snow bands set up, it could go to three inches per hour at times, which is pretty incredible. Winds might gust to 45 mph, so in a few local spots, near-blizzard conditions might develop.
For those of you in southern Vermont, especially south of Route 4, get your supply runs done early this evening. Get the LED candles ready and charge your devices. And just hunker down tomorrow and tomorrow night and wait for the worst of it to pass
It's still be windy and snowy Wednesday, especially in high spots, but the intensity of the snow will definitely wane through the day.
No surprise that there is a winter storm warning in effect for this part of Vermont.
CENTRAL VERMONT
Statewide, this storm will really be a matter of elevation. Warmer valleys will have a wetter, denser snow, which might melt just a bit during daylight hours Tuesday. Higher elevations will be better able to accumulate sno.
All this is especially true in central Vermont, roughly between Route 2 and Route 4. Lower spots, like along Route 7 between, say Clarendon and Burlington, will have bursts of slushy snow, maybe mixed with a little rain during the day Tuesday before going solidly to snow Tuesday night.
Accumulations in those valleys by mid-morning Wednesday could end up being up to five, six or seven inches of snow with the consistency of wet cement. Yeah, that'll break your back and your shovel.
Go uphill just a bit, and you get a lot more snow. From Ludlow, all the way up through rather high elevation towns like Mount Holly, Shrewsbury, Chittenden, Ripton, Warren and Fayston could easily get a foot of snow out of this.
Although the snow won't be as wet and slushy in the higher elevations, it will still fall well short of fluffy. So, snow loading on trees and power lines will cause trouble here, too. High winds will make it worse Tuesday through Wednesday.
If the storm system jogs a little more northwest than forecast, as a few computer models indicate, there might be more snow than forecast.
Most of central Vermont is under a winter storm warning for an expected 6-12 inches of snow. In the Champlain Valley, a slightly less dire winter weather advisory is in effect because lower elevations of Addison County stands a good chance of receiving a little less than six inches of snow.
NORTHERN VERMONT
This is still the wild card part of Vermont. The guidance has pushed up the expected moisture a bit so a little more snow might fall in the north than we saw in earlier forecasts.
Most of Vermont north of Route 2 hadn't been under any winter weather alerts until this afternoon. A winter weather advisory was extended northward to cover all of the north except Franklin and Grand Isle and western Chittenden County.
Areas covered under the advisory can expect four or five inches of snow, with winds gusting to 35 mph.
The northern Champlain Valley is outside the advisory, but it does look like there might be a little more snow than originally forecast. For instance, Sunday evening, 1.4 inches of new snow was forecast in St. Albans. This evening. St. Albans has been told to expect 2.9 inches.
That's still not a lot, but you can see the trend.
Meteorologists have noticed that northwestward trend in the models, so the Champlain Valley could actually end up with more than that two or three inch forecast.
What gives some mets pause is that the past couple of storms the forecasts kept nudging storms northward to give the Champlain Valley more snow, only for that to not happen.
The worst and best case forecasts for the northern Champlain valley are still all over the place. This morning, the low and high range for snow fall in St. Albans was somewhere between 0 and 10 inches. Tonight, that range is between 2 and 12 inches.
I doubt St. Albans will get 12 inches of new snow, but I expect surprises in northern Vermont, much more so than the south. I'm not sure if areas north of Route 2 will get more or less snow than expected, but it probably won't be three inches.
Although I don't expect widespread power issues in northern Vermont, some high elevations might see enough wet snow and strong winds to cause brief, isolated problems.
ELSEWHERE
Unfortunately, as I noted in a post several weeks ago, an agricultural disaster will start tonight in the Southeast.
Just like in 2012, 2017 and 2018, spring came way, way prematurely in the South, causing crops like peaches and blueberries to bloom much sooner than they should.
And, just like in 2012, 2017 and 2018, a strong storm in New England is pushing cold air into the Southeast. Nasty frosts and freezes are likely tonight and tomorrow night from Arkansas to the Carolinas.
I expect millions of dollars in damage, at least, to crops through that region.
Closer to home, the Catskill Mountains in New York, Berkshires in Massachusetts and southwest New Hampshire are still under the gun for up to two feet of wet snow. Maybe more in a few spots. Lighter snow, but heavy rain, damaging winds and coastal flooding are due in New England, Long Island and
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