Storm On Tuesday Could Be Real Mess Parts Of Vermont/New England

This is just one of many depictions of what the
nor'easter might look like on Tuesday. This is
big time subject to change. 

 The forecasts are coming into a little better focus for what could be a messy, sluggish but hefty storm in New England coming up during the first half of next week. 

The devil is in the details, of course, and those details could definitely change between now and storm time. 

However, parts of Vermont could see more than a foot of heavy, wet snow, and that type of deal can cause real trouble with electric utilities.  have a feeling Green Mountain Power and other Vermont utilities are already getting their staffing and repair plans in place for this one. 

Again, though subject to change, at this point it looks like the main target will be mid and high elevations of central and southern Vermont. Parts of New Hampshire, Maine, and Massachusetts are also in for a mess like this, too.

THE SET UP

Most of the storms this year have been hit and runs. They raced in, deposited a quick moderate dose of snow or schmutz and moved on almost before you know what hit you. 

This one looks to be big, slow, lumbering giant, which would linger around New England for quite awhile. One model I looks at has it lurking around southeastern New England from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning. 

That gives the storm a lot of time to dump its load of snow, or rain, or whatever on the region. 

It kind of reminds me of the storm track of the Blizzard of 1888. Before you get too alarmed, though, this won't be nearly as bad, or nearly as cold as that 19th century snow disaster.  

Still, I foresee trouble for somebody. Since it's not a very cold storm, and it is March, that's almost a  guarantee of heavy. wet snow.  The National Weather Service office in South Burlington is already saying that it's possible for us to see as much as two feet of snow in one or two spots if this plays out as it might well do.

This looks like it might also be a storm that affects mid and high elevations more than anything else. 

The sun's angle is higher now as we head into spring, and some heat can come through the thickest clouds. So in the warmer valleys, we could have a mix with rain. Or the snow would be so sloppy slushy that it would largely melt as it hits the ground. 

That also depends on the intensity of the snow at the time. In places where it's really coming down  hard, that would cool the atmosphere a bit and the snow would pile up fast regardless of the time of day. 

Northern Vermont is once again a wild card, like it was during the last two storms.  It does seem that some snow (and maybe a little rain in the Champlain Valley) is inevitable with this, it's hard to say how badly we'll be affected, especially along and north of Route 2.

We just don't know yet where the heaviest snow will set up. It does seem more likely in the southern half of Vermont, though. 

WHEN IT HITS

An initial, much smaller snowfall was going on in far southern Vermont early this morning. Steady snow has reached as far north as Brandon.  Judging from Vermont Agency of Transportation web cams, mostly places in the southern Vermont snow zone have gotten about a half inch to two inches of snow, with maybe a touch more than that in higher elevations. 

Also, judging from the view out my St. Albans, Vermont window, some flurries have made it as far north as the northern Adirondacks, but I'm sure there's little, if any accumulation. 

That light snow should be out of Vermont by late morning, and the weekend will be quiet. 

As the new, bigger storm gathers, we should see clouds on Monday, with light rain and snow breaking out in the afternoon or early evening.  Everything should turn to snow overnight Monday, but it might not snow that hard until early morning. 

The main show is expected on Tuesday, with a slow decrease in the rate of snow or rainfall Tuesday night and Wednesday.  This timing is of course subject to change. 

I know I've said it already but it bears repeating thatthe storm forecast will probably change. Maybe by a lot. As we draw closer to the storm, meteorologists will be able to hone in on details for more specific areas.