A First Heads Up: Another Vermont Storm This Weekend. Snow? Rain?

Despite some recent thawing, still a fair amount of snow
on the ground today in St. Albans, Vermont. Will
a fairly substantial forecasted weekend storm melt some
of this snow, or will it add to the snow cover. Still
a lot of questions as to what might happen. 

 Just a heads up that another fairly substantial storm is coming to Vermont this weekend. But will it be mainly rain or snow?  

That's still the big question mark.

The storm itself is going to set up a lot like the last one on March 14-15, and the one before that on March 3-4. Like those two earlier storms, the main system will want to head up toward the eastern Great Lakes while a new storm develops along the coast. 

Storms that go by to our west tend to give us rain or mixed precipitation even in mid-winter. But when a second storm forms along the coast, that tends to lock in the cold air, so we in Vermont end up with mostly snow. 

This time, though, it's far from a slam dunk for snow. Especially in the valleys. We're getting into late March now. It's getting harder and harder to get cold enough for a snowstorm. Yes, it's surely possible to get a lot of snow this time of year. Even in the warmer valleys. But it's less likely. 

Second of all, this storm won't be as strong as the one that came through mid-month. I'm pretty sure nobody is going to get three feet of snow like last time. Even if it stays all snow in the mountains. On top of that, there's not oodles of cold air available, which makes it even harder to get a good snowstorm.

A lot can change between now and when the storm actually gets here. But for now, the forecast seems to indicate that valleys will get a cold rain out of this, while Vermont mountains have the potential to see quite a bit of snow. 

It's pretty typical in mid to late March to see storms that depend on elevation.  Often, a chilly rain will drench the valleys while the ski areas get a late season dump. 

The most extreme example of this came in March, 1947. On that occasion, we had a storm head into the eastern Great Lakes while another formed along the New England coast. The two storms consolidated, much like what is in the forecast for this weekend. The southern Green Mountains were buried. Peru, Vermont received 47 inches of snow. Meanwhile, valleys in Vermont had mostly rain.

Nothing that dramatic will happen this weekend, but you get the idea. We still have several days to go, so the forecast could change bit time. We could see some more power outage issues this weekend in mid to high elevations due to wet snow.

And, if the temperatures are a little colder than expected, valleys could share in a wintry experience. 

Stay tuned on that, 

Before we get there, tomorrow will be a spectacular day for Vermont maple sugarers. After a hard freeze tonight with temperatures well down in the 20s, high temperatures Wednesday afternoon will get well into the 40s in the valleys. A few spot 50 degree reading are possible. 

A "preview" storm on Thursday will bring mostly rain to Vermont. Most places will see less than half an inch of rain. Areas north of Route 2 could see up to three-quarters of an inch. This, combined with melting snow, will probably cause some rises in rivers, but it very likely won't be enough to touch off any flooding. 

I'll update things as warranted as we get closer to the event.