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| The latest storm prediction map, issued by the National Weather Service office in South Burlington at mid- afternoon Friday, is little changed from previous forecasts issues last night and this morning. |
To be honest, when there's no dramatic shifts in forecasts over time, I get a little more confident that the predictions will be right.
That said, we will probably see some boom or bust surprises. You can't tell in advance where, but a few places might get quite a bit more snow than forecast, and few places will be bereft of the biggest drifts.
Let's get into the deets:
SNOWFALL
Most of us should see 6 to 12 inches of snow out of this. That's pretty consistent with what's been in the forecast for the past couple of days.
We're still seeing hints that places right along the Canadian border might be held back to five or six inches. We'll have to wait and see how that plays out. It all depends on which wins out: The big surge of very wet air from the south, or a wall of drier air seeping down from Quebec.
The peaceful Canadian border is going to be the real battleground, at least with this storm. This area is where I most expect surprises, one way or another.
The eastern slopes of the Green Mountains, mostly north of Bennington and Windham counties and south of Route 2, will be the big winners. I'm holding by my conviction that we could see a few spots up to 18 inches by the time it's all over.
Low elevations of Bennington County might also just barely get to five or five and a half inches due to the expected mix with sleet. The strong winds off the western slopes of the Green Mountains will also help to squelch the snow total some.
Needless to say, the entire state remains under a winter storm warning from later tonight until early evening Saturday.
A couple bands of particularly heavy snow look like they want to move across much of the state during the peak hours of the storm, mainly 1 to 8 a.m. Saturday. In the eastern slopes, snowfall rates could go up to two to three inches per hour for a time, which is not quite, but nearly as intense as it can possibly get.
Most other places are in for occasional snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour. That's a pretty impressive snowfall rate and too fast for the plow trucks to do a decent job with.
HIGH WINDS
This looks like it will be a windy storm in many parts of Vermont, so expect some blizzard-like conditions, especially between 3 and 9 a.m.. With snow occasionally falling heavily and those winds, white out conditions will happen on the roads, pretty much everywhere in the state.
You don't want to be out there tomorrow morning.
The worst winds will be along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. Much of Rutland and Bennington counties look especially windy.
One slightly mitigating factor is where winds are strongest, the snow won't fall quite as intensely, But it will still be on the dangerous side to be out in that. It'll almost be a blizzard.
Sleet will probably mix with the snow in Bennington County, so the ice and the winds will really sting if you're outdoors.
The sleet could creep up into Rutland and Windsor counties for a time, too.
These strong winds, and all that snow could lead to some power issues. I'm a little more worries about scattered power outages than I was this morning, given the stronger expected winds.
It won't be as bad as those two storms in December. But, especially in places where the winds will be strongest and snow will be heaviest, I'd charge your devices this evening, just in case.
The winds should diminish toward mid and late morning. Plus temperatures will warm, giving any new snow a wetter quality. That would really cut down on the blowing and drifting snow.
Snow will continue through the day Saturday, but during the afternoon, it will come down at a much lighter rate than it would earlier in the day.
It is March, so it will also get relatively toasty in the afternoon, too. Many valleys will be near or a bit above freezing during the afternoon. The higher sun angle we have now in March will also cut through the clouds. That'll make any snow that falls wet and heavy, but luckily, the afternoon snow won't come down hard.
Plus, this relative warmth will be a big boost to get at least the main roads in much better shape in the afternoon. If you have to drive somewhere tomorrow, wait until after 1 p.m. or so.
The weather looks quiet, though a bit dull through the upcoming week. We'll see some sun here and there, but we won't have bright, brilliant days will wall to wall sun. We also won't have much in the way of precipitation either. Maybe some lame sprinkles and flurries from time to time through the week.
STORM HITS ELSEWHERE TOO
It goes without saying this storm has been, and will affect a lot of people besides us here in Vermont.
We saw at least six reports of tornadoes in northeastern Texas and northwestern Louisiana on Thursday. Thankfully, it doesn't look like the twisters were as strong as the could have been.
However, there's been a report of at least one fatality in Mississippi. Today, tornado warnings blared in parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Georgia and as far north as southern Ohio. It will take some investigating to figure out how many twisters actually occurred today.
A huge expanse of the South, Tennessee and Ohio Valley also had strong winds along with the rain and storms. The low pressure system is so strong that it's been producing gusts to 60 mph in this region, far away from any thunderstorms with even gustier winds.
Flash flooding was also widespread across much of Missouri, Arkansas, southern Illinois and much of Kentucky.
Blizzard conditions are forecast tonight in parts of southern Ontario, where as much as 16 inches of snow.
The good news is, after this episode, it looks like the nation won't face all that much storminess for at least a week or so.
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