Tornado Toll From Friday Got Much Worse, And We're Going To Do It Again

Areas in orange and especially red are most at risk for
another round of tornadoes tomorrow. If this map looks
familiar, it's because the forecast map ahead of 
last Friday's tornado outbreak was almost identical to this one.

Saturday morning, I was vaguely relieved that there had "only" been nine deaths associated with a widespread tornado outbreak on Friday. 

I should not have been so smug.

At last check, 32 people died in the Friday tornadoes, which is worse than the death toll from twisters exactly a week earlier. This toll includes another person died in a Delaware tornado on Saturday. 

The deaths back on March 24 were focused on Mississippi, where dangerous night time tornadoes blasted a handful of relatively rural towns. 

 I think so many people died March 24 at least in part because the tornadoes came through at night, when people aren't as aware of the danger. 

Not only was the death count worse than a week early, this past Friday's tornadoes covered a far, far more widespread area.   

By my count, more than 100 preliminary reports of tornadoes came in from at least a dozen states. It was one of the most widespread outbreaks I've seen in recent years. It stretched from Arkansas to Georgia and from Iowa to New Jersey and Delaware.

This time, the death toll was high because there were so many tornadoes. With that many twisters - some of them unusually violent - spinning in so many different places, it's inevitable there would be casualties no matter how good the warnings. 

As the Associated Press reports, the most concentrated deaths were east of Memphis where nine people died in yes, a tornado that struck after dark. Overall in Tennessee, 15 people died in this outbreak, so Tennessee was the worst hit in this one. 

So far this year, 63 Americans have died in tornadoes. The average annual number of deaths from twisters is 80, so we're already pretty close.  The absolute peak of tornado season doesn't hit until late April through early June, so we've got a long way to go. 

A new, thankfully lesser and smaller severe storm outbreak hit northern Texas Sunday. I'm not yet sure if any tornadoes touched down, but there were several reports of damaging winds and large hail.  Airports around Dallas declared ground stops as the storms rolled through. I'm also not aware of any deaths or serious injuries in Texas last night. 

NEXT UP. 

Now, unfortunately, it's rinse and repeat. A storm that appears as if it will be remarkably similar to Friday's is looming for the Midwest and South tomorrow. Forecast maps show the exact same areas that were under the highest risk Friday are again at the greatest peril from this new storm. 

The strongest tornadoes at this point seem poised to hit eastern Iowa, western Illinois and northeastern Missouri which were hit hard last Friday. 

Arkansas looks like another target.  This after neighborhoods on the west and north side of Little Rock were devastated by a large tornado on Friday. 

In Arkansas, one person died in North Little Rock. About 50 people in the Little Rock metro area were injured and the city said 2, 648 structures were damaged or destroyed. The supercell that produced the Little Rock tornado dropped another twister on the city of Wynne, Arkansas, causing an additional four fatalities. 

I'm sure people in Arkansas are praying there won't be a repeat.

Much like on Saturday, this storm could produce severe weather in Ohio, Pennsylvania and western New York on Wednesday,

This same storm system is also going to create another blizzard in the northern Plains. 

One glimmer of hope is that after this next storm, things are forecast to settle down for awhile. The weather pattern is changing, at least temporarily, to one that will produce little severe weather and a rather low chance of tornadoes in the U.S. for at least a week, beginning Thursday. 

This was kind of a morbid post, but sometimes reality sucks. Maybe tornado season is getting is energy out early and the rest of it will be more mild?  Time will tell.

 

Buffalo Blizzard Now A Full-Blown Tragedy. Why Did So Many People Die?

Snowbound neighborhood in Cheektowaga, New York
following the deadly Christmas weekend blizzard.
Photo by John Waller via AP.

 The death toll from the extreme blizzard in and around Buffalo was up to at least 27 as of late Monday morning.  The toll is likely to rise. 

Stephen Marth of Spectrum News 1 BUF said in a tweet 20 people are so far are known to have died in the city of Buffalo, six more in Erie County and another in Niagara County. 

Not everyone who died were caught in cars out in the open. Some died of heart attacks while trying to clear snow. Others died of other causes because rescue workers could not reach them. At least one died when a heater vent became clogged with snow

Officials say they are almost certain this terrible death toll will rise.

Now, the speculation, and the finger pointing, is already beginning as to why this blizzard was so fatal.

Weather forecasts prior to the blizzard were as dire as they get. The forecast discussion from the National Weather Service office in Buffalo issued at 1:38 a.m. Wednesday, December 21 read in part: 

"As if the very real threat for damage producing winds were not enough....there will also be the risk of a prolonged, paralyzing heavy lake effect snow event. The very strong to damaging winds, blowing and drifting snow with localized blizzard conditions followed by a rapid flash freeze."

Note that this is two full days before the crap really hit the fan in Buffalo. 

The 6:32 Wednesday forecast discussion said, "a once in a generation winter storm to slam the region heading into and THROUGH the Christmas weekend."

The NWS office in Buffalo first released a winter storm watch at 2:20 p.m. Tuesday, December 20, so that's giving nearly a three day warning. That warning said in part, "Travel for the holiday weekend, including Friday, could be very difficult to impossible at times."  The watch also included an alert for possible tree and power line damage, and dangerously low wind chills. "

At 3:54 a.m. December 22, the Buffalo National Weather Service office issued a blizzard warning. That's a good 30 hours in advance of when blizzard conditions began in Buffalo. So people had a long lead time to prepare, with strident wording to get light a fire under residents' butts. 

This might be Monday morning quarterbacking, but a travel ban in Erie County, which is the area that includes Buffalo, did not go into effect until 9:30 a.m. December 23. By then, perhaps thousands of people had already driven to work, shopping or errands. 

Those people ended having to attempt a drive home in zero visibility blizzard conditions, and many of them got stuck.  Soon, things got so bad that emergency vehicles got stuck.  Nobody could rescue anyone who was in trouble. 

Buffalo is by no means out of the woods.  The Washington Post today reports that 10,000 people in the region still had no power as of Monday.  Electrical substations are damaged, including one that is inaccessible for now due to 18-foot tall snow drifts. 

People stuck in shelters and nursing homes are reportedly running out of food, the Washington Post reports. Many streets remain completely blocked, and the airport will remain closed to at least Monday.

Another four to eight inches of snow is in the forecast for Buffalo through tomorrow. At least 49.1 inches of snow have fallen in Buffalo since the storm started.

Yet another danger lurks in Buffalo:  Temperatures are expected to rise into the 50s by next weekend, and rain should break out. That raises the risk of flooding. 

Overall, the death toll nationwide from the storm stood at 49, according to the Associated Press. That includes one person in Castleton, Vermont, who was killed by a falling tree on Thursday. 

Canada was hard hit by the storm as well.

About 380,000 people in Quebec lost power at the height of the storm, mostly from damage caused by high winds. 

The northern edge of the Buffalo blizzard reached into Canadian shorelines along Lake Erie, dumping feet of snow and blocking roads for days. 

Kentucky Death Toll At Least 64 As Officials Search For Further Answers Into Tornado

A lawyer's office in Mayfield, Kentucky before
and after Friday's tornado. The capriciousness
of the tornado is evident. The building was
torn away and largely blown down the 
street, but books in part of a remaining office
remain neatly arranged. 

UPDATE 1 PM MONDAY

Some updates to the tornado disaster have trickled in since this morning, and the news is not great.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear  late this morning confirmed 64 deaths from the tornadoes, with 105 still unaccounted for.

At least some of those unaccounted for people are probably -hopefully OK, just lost in the confusion of the disaster, moved from damaged homes, unreachable due to a wrecked cellular network in the tornado zone. 

Beshear said the ages of the dead ranged from five months to 86 years old. Three fatalities involved people under the age of 18.

"I'm not doing so well today," Beshear said, "And I'm not sure how many of us are."

Officials are saying the storm might have cost several billion in damages. FEMA is rushing aid to the region, and President Biden said he is going to Kentucky Wednesday for a look-see,

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service office in Paducah, Kentucky has confirmed at least 128 miles of the storm path was caused by one single tornado.

Adjacent National Weather Service offices need to complete their surveys to determine whether the tornado's path was even longer than that. The confirmed path is already among the longest in U.S. history. If it''s determined it was over 200 miles long, it would be the longest continuous path of any recorded tornado in U.S. history.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The worst and most important part of Friday's Kentucky tornado disaster is of course the death toll, the inured, and the people who lost their homes and businesses. 

We know it's bad, but we still don't know the exact death toll, number of injuries, losses and that kind of thing.  

There's also a lot of meteorological questions out there. Was it one long-lasting tornado that traveled continuously over 200 miles? If so, it would set a grim record for longest tornado track on record. And exactly how strong was this tornado? That's still being investigated.

First the toll, with a glimmer of good news of sorts from that candle factory that was leveled in Mayfield, Kentucky with 110 people inside. 

It looks like eight people died inside that factory during the tornado, which is of course beyond awful. But it's not as bad as first feared. Initial reports said only about 40 of the people inside had been rescued and the rest likely died.

Now it appears 90 people from the factory have been accounted for and are alive.   It appears eight people are still missing.

Due to the scope of the disaster and spotty cell phone coverage due to damaged infrastructure, we still don't know how many people died in the tornadoes.  It could be anywhere between 50 and 100.  In addition to the toll in Kentucky, we know six died in an Illinois Amazon distribution center that was hit by a separate tornado. 

THE TORNADOES

Overall, there were 61 reported tornadoes on Friday in the middle of the nation, but that number still needs to be refined.

The main disaster was the tornado or tornadoes that traveled with one intense supercell thunderstorm from northeastern Arkansas, through the boot heel of Missouri, then clipping Tennessee before moving onto its devastating path through Kentucky.

This is already being called the "Quad-State Tornado" since it hit four states, but was it really one tornado a series?

Most of the time, tornado-producing supercells go through cycles. They'll drop a tornado that travels several miles before lifting, only to produce a new tornado a few minutes later.  Sometimes this cycle repeats itself numerous times.

Investigators with the National Weather Service are now examining the path of this storm to determine whether it was a series of tornadoes or one monster.  I know this doesn't matter much to the victims, but it's still worth the effort.  Anything scientists can do to better understand tornadoes, the better.

Another question is what was the maximum strength of this tornado or tornadoes?  Anyone who glances at the news headlines and pictures knows it was very strong.  But exactly how strong?

Tornadoes are rated on what is called an EF scale from 0 to 5. Category 5 being the most intense, with winds of 260 to 318 mph.  Damage from an EF-5 tornado is described as such: "Strong frame houses lifted off foundations, carried considerable distances, and disintegrated; auto-sized missiles airborne for several hundred feet or more, trees debarked."

Judging from photos in the news and on social media, it's possible the tornado or tornadoes was an EF-5.  I'll leave that assessment up to the experts poking through the wreckage. We'll probably have an answer to this question within a few days.

The last time the U.S. had an EF-5 tornado was on May 19, 2013 in Moore, Oklahoma. That means we've gone more than 3,120 days without such a strong twister. It's the longest such streak on record, but the tornadoes Friday might have ended that welcome break from EF-5 tornadoes.

Strong tornadoes are much more rare this time of year than in the spring. The last EF-5 December tornado was in 1957.

The suction power of the Kentucky storm was beyond words. Debris from the tornado, probably tree branches and bits and pieces of people's homes and belongings, were detected as having been blown aloft up to 30,000 feet in the air.  That's cruising altitude for a 747.

Some of the debris was carried huge distances. One photo from the storm was found in somebody's yard 130 miles away. Another photograph turned up in Indiana, 140 miles from where it originated. Other objects, including photographs, were found more than 100 miles away.  A Facebook page has been set up to reunite tornado survivors with mementoes that traveled great distances in the storm. 

CLIMATE CHANGE?

Inevitably, people are asking if this very strange and extreme December tornado outbreak is a consequence of climate change. 

We don't know for sure, but for what it's worth, FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said on CNN's State of the Union on Sunday that her agency is preparing for more of this kind of stuff. "This is going to be our new normal, and the effects that we're seeing from climate change are the crisis of our generation," she said.  

Climate change doesn't seem to be causing an increase in overall tornado numbers, but seems to be making individual tornado outbreaks worse. And tornadoes seem to be shifting more to the east, focusing on the Gulf and East Coasts and the Midwest near and east of the Mississippi River, which is where  Friday's tornado outbreak focused.

Waters in the Gulf of Mexico are currently at record high levels for this time of year. Warm, moist air is one of the necessary ingredients for tornado outbreaks. It follows that the warmer the air, the more moisture it can hold. That combination worsens the potential powder keg for tornadoes

It's possible that's part of what happened Friday.