Vermont (Mostly) Caught A Big Break Today, Not So In "Debby Zone" And Elsewhere

Hard to see in the photo, but a fairly drenching rain
began in St. Albans, Vermont late this afternoon.
The threat of severe storms and flash flooding,
however, has diminished to almost zero in central
and northern Vermont. 

 A weak disturbance running out ahead of our big, long awaited cold front saved the day in central and northern Vermont.  

Sure, it was overcast with areas of light rain pretty much all day, but that's much better than the flash flooding and severe storms we feared.

The disturbance and its light rain stabilized the atmosphere, so wild storms couldn't get going. 

Except in far southern Vermont, where a severe thunderstorm was heading into Bennington County as I write this around 6 p.m. That nasty storm looks like it will eventually make it into Windham County before exiting into southwest New Hampshire. 

It still looks like the rain might pick up some in central and northern Vermont this evening as the actual cold front comes in. 

Believe it or not, a few isolated spots in northwest Vermont could use the rain.  For instance, the past week's storms have avoided my place in St. Albans, where we had only 0.35 inches of rain in the ten days ending yesterday. 

We got precious little so far today, so I hope a band of heavier rain northwest of here holds together. Rain did seem to be picking up a bit as of 6 p.m. 

In any event, cool, generally dry weather is due tomorrow through Thursday. 

Vermont might not be entirely out of the rain and flood woods quite yet, though. We are still watching the possibility on Friday and Saturday of tropical moisture from Debby interacting with an another storm system coming in from the west. 

Worst case scenario is yet another nasty flood, but we're not ready to go there yet. It could still be a big huge nothingburger for us. There's already a level 2 out of four flood risk alert for Friday for all of the East Coast, including all of Vermont. So it bears watching.

ROUGH STUFF ELSEWHERE

Areas outside Vermont - places from New York and southern New England to Florida - either dealt with or bracing for rough weather.  

Screen grab of a tornado ripping through downtown
Buffalo, New York of all places today. 

A EF-1 tornado packing 90 mph winds swept through downtown Buffalo, New York of all places this afternoon, damaging buildings and trees and blocking streets. 

Meanwhile, former Hurricane Debby, now a tropical storm, has already caused four fatalities in Florida. The storm's forward motion, as expected, has slowed down to a crawl, setting the stage for catastrophic flooding in northern Florida, parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

Among the places where concern is highest is Charleston, South Carolina.  Ocean storm surges caused by Debby will help block river water arriving from inland from going out to sea, instead backing it up in Charleston. 

Over the next week or less, up to 30 inches of rain could fall in South Carolina. Up to 10 inches might fall during that time from Virginia to southern New England. Flood watches are already in effect as far north as Connecticut. 

Buffalo Blizzard Now A Full-Blown Tragedy. Why Did So Many People Die?

Snowbound neighborhood in Cheektowaga, New York
following the deadly Christmas weekend blizzard.
Photo by John Waller via AP.

 The death toll from the extreme blizzard in and around Buffalo was up to at least 27 as of late Monday morning.  The toll is likely to rise. 

Stephen Marth of Spectrum News 1 BUF said in a tweet 20 people are so far are known to have died in the city of Buffalo, six more in Erie County and another in Niagara County. 

Not everyone who died were caught in cars out in the open. Some died of heart attacks while trying to clear snow. Others died of other causes because rescue workers could not reach them. At least one died when a heater vent became clogged with snow

Officials say they are almost certain this terrible death toll will rise.

Now, the speculation, and the finger pointing, is already beginning as to why this blizzard was so fatal.

Weather forecasts prior to the blizzard were as dire as they get. The forecast discussion from the National Weather Service office in Buffalo issued at 1:38 a.m. Wednesday, December 21 read in part: 

"As if the very real threat for damage producing winds were not enough....there will also be the risk of a prolonged, paralyzing heavy lake effect snow event. The very strong to damaging winds, blowing and drifting snow with localized blizzard conditions followed by a rapid flash freeze."

Note that this is two full days before the crap really hit the fan in Buffalo. 

The 6:32 Wednesday forecast discussion said, "a once in a generation winter storm to slam the region heading into and THROUGH the Christmas weekend."

The NWS office in Buffalo first released a winter storm watch at 2:20 p.m. Tuesday, December 20, so that's giving nearly a three day warning. That warning said in part, "Travel for the holiday weekend, including Friday, could be very difficult to impossible at times."  The watch also included an alert for possible tree and power line damage, and dangerously low wind chills. "

At 3:54 a.m. December 22, the Buffalo National Weather Service office issued a blizzard warning. That's a good 30 hours in advance of when blizzard conditions began in Buffalo. So people had a long lead time to prepare, with strident wording to get light a fire under residents' butts. 

This might be Monday morning quarterbacking, but a travel ban in Erie County, which is the area that includes Buffalo, did not go into effect until 9:30 a.m. December 23. By then, perhaps thousands of people had already driven to work, shopping or errands. 

Those people ended having to attempt a drive home in zero visibility blizzard conditions, and many of them got stuck.  Soon, things got so bad that emergency vehicles got stuck.  Nobody could rescue anyone who was in trouble. 

Buffalo is by no means out of the woods.  The Washington Post today reports that 10,000 people in the region still had no power as of Monday.  Electrical substations are damaged, including one that is inaccessible for now due to 18-foot tall snow drifts. 

People stuck in shelters and nursing homes are reportedly running out of food, the Washington Post reports. Many streets remain completely blocked, and the airport will remain closed to at least Monday.

Another four to eight inches of snow is in the forecast for Buffalo through tomorrow. At least 49.1 inches of snow have fallen in Buffalo since the storm started.

Yet another danger lurks in Buffalo:  Temperatures are expected to rise into the 50s by next weekend, and rain should break out. That raises the risk of flooding. 

Overall, the death toll nationwide from the storm stood at 49, according to the Associated Press. That includes one person in Castleton, Vermont, who was killed by a falling tree on Thursday. 

Canada was hard hit by the storm as well.

About 380,000 people in Quebec lost power at the height of the storm, mostly from damage caused by high winds. 

The northern edge of the Buffalo blizzard reached into Canadian shorelines along Lake Erie, dumping feet of snow and blocking roads for days. 

Can We Just Marvel At Buffalo. It's Turning Into A Tragedy

Screen grab from buffalowebcam.com as of 
Saturday afternoon shows things have scarcely
improved there since yesterday. 

UPDATE: 1 p.m. 12/25/22

I always hate to spread bad news on Christmas, but the Buffalo blizzard is turning into a tragedy.

The death toll has risen to seven, and I'm afraid that will go up as more people are found in stuck cars or buried in snow drifts along the streets.

The snow has finally tapered off in Buffalo, as the main snow band has shifted a little south of the city. 

WABC in New York reports that Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz said, "We know there are people who have been stuck in cars for more than two days."

If any of those cars ran out of gas, the people inside probably froze to death, is my sad guess. 

Emergency services could not go out and answer calls on Saturday because all the streets and roads were clogged by massive snow drifts.  Now that it's not snowing nearly as hard in Buffalo, crews are clearing main streets. The National Guard is arriving to help. 

Buffalo has now received 43 inches of snow from this snowstorm, with brought winds of up to 72 miles to the city. It appears the city was under full blizzard conditions for at least 37 hours. 

To qualify as a blizzard, a storm must have sustained winds or frequent gusts to at least 35 miles, very low visibility in falling or blowing snow, and these conditions must last at least three hours. 

Heavy snow is still falling downwind of Lake Ontario, as well. As of 1 p.m. Watertown, New York had been reporting heavy snow for five hours. 

The lake effect snow band from Lake Ontario is extending as far as the northern tip of Vermont today.  Jay Peak could receive three to six inches of snow out of this. Light snow and flurries are possible on valley floors in the Green Mountain State.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

As wild as the weather has been in Vermont and most of the rest of the nation lately, can we pause and look a little more closely at Buffalo, New York?  

I had predicted before the storm that Buffalo would be the worst-hit city, but I couldn't imagine it would get that bad. 

As of mid-afternoon Christmas Eve, Buffalo has endured 30 hours of zero or very close to zero visibility in snow and blowing snow.  In that mess, they had 16 consecutive hours of gusts to at least 50 mph, with a peak gust of 72 mph. 

After five or six hours this morning in which gusts "only" reached between 45 and 49 mph, winds are howling were howling at about 54 to 55 mph again this afternoon. 

At least three people have died in this blizzard. The storm is extremely life threatening and harrowing. and apocalyptic. 

People had to be rescued from cars even in the city's downtown since nobody could see or move. Many of these victims in and around Buffalo had been stranded in freezing cars overnight. Hundreds of those stranded who escaped or were rescued are hunkered down in businesses and strangers' homes, as they can't go anywhere else. 

Emergency vehicles can't respond to calls for help. All the roads are blocked, and the storm is too intense to clear the roads.  Those roads are also blocked by a multitude of stuck and abandoned cars.  Many people in Buffalo, including the mayor, were without electricity on Christmas Eve.

The Buffalo News reported Saturday that Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz told them that the cities and towns of Buffalo, Tonawanda, Kenmore, Amherst, Clarence, Lancaster, and Williamsville were without emergency services. He said roughly two thirds of police, fire and EMT vehicles in these areas were stuck in the snow and inoperable.

Video released by WXChasing on YouTube showed several emergency vehicles trapped in drifts, along with damaged utility poles and wires which nobody can fix until the storm subsides. 

It's obviously hard to measure the windblown snow in Buffalo, but at the official measuring site at the airport, they came up with 28.1 inches as of 1 p.m. today.. Video posted to YouTube by storm chaser Reed Timmer showed some parts of streets blown completely clear of snow with the drifts piled up feet deep against parked cars and buildings at the edge of the streets. 

Timmer's video also depicted the near zero visibility and the power of the winds and is a must see to get a glimpse of what it must have been like to be in Buffalo Friday night. 

Another one to two feet of snow is expected in and near Buffalo before the storm finally starts to subside early Christmas morning.

Buffalo suffered one other indignity on Friday. A seiche, which is when strong winds tilt a body of water, did just that to Lake Erie.  It caused a nearly 11-foot storm surge that flooded roads, houses and buildings amid the blizzard in Buffalo, and shoreline towns like Hamburg.

This will be the worst storm in Buffalo's history. Even worse than the famed Blizzard of 1977.

Buffalo will continue to be harassed by snow showers through Tuesday, with light accumulations. 

And let's not forget about the towns further north, downwind from towns along Lake Ontario. Watertown and nearby towns also have had full blizzard conditions since Friday morning.  I don't have updated snow totals for that region but I'm sure at least a couple feet have fallen. The blizzard warning area off of Lake Ontario can expect another two to four feet before the storm subsides on or just after Christmas.

After all this, Buffalo might face yet another challenge in about a week. Temperatures are expected to climb into the 50s, with the possibility of rain.  That could trigger flooding from all the snow melt. 

 

My Nominee For City Most Screwed By Upcoming Storm Is Buffalo, New York

I nominate Buffalo, New York as the American city
most in trouble by the giant storm now building in the U.S.

 This wide ranging, developing storm that we've been talking about for a few days now will hit so many dozens of cities in the United States.  

Which city is most screwed with this?

We can nominate plenty.  Maybe Bismarck, North Dakota, where the noon temperature there was minus 19 and they're expecting wind chills of around 55 below.

Or Minneapolis? They're right on the edge of a blizzard warning, and they're an airline hub.

I think Chicago is worse. They're a United Airlines hub plus a bigger city.  They'll have minor thawing early Thursday, followed by blinding blowing and drifting snows and crashing temperatures. With winds as high as 50 mph.

You can even make a great case for nominating Burlington, Vermont. This city could have 60 mph gusts, if not right in town then nearby.  Flooding is a risk from heavy rain, and the flash freeze later Friday afternoon makes me shudder.

But in this storm, I would give the nod for worst weather to Buffalo, New York.  They have all kinds of problems with this one. First, it will rain there into early Friday morning. Then Buffalo gets its own flash freeze, and snow will blow in.

The flat Lake Erie will encourage the west to southwest winds even ore than rougher terrain. Winds will surge to over 60 mph. 

Speaking of surge, something called a seiche will hit Lake Erie. As the powerful cold front crosses the lake and sets up the strong west to southwest winds, Lake Erie will slosh toward and into Buffalo.

Essentially the wind will make Lake Erie tilt, with the lower side of the tilt back toward Toledo, Ohio and the higher water at and around Buffalo.

This seiche could make Lake Erie water rise near Buffalo by as much as eleven feet, causing plenty of shoreline flooding and battering waves.

This same wind set up means a round of intense lake effect snow squalls. This area has already dealt with snow squalls that dumped a few feet of snow in a few days. But those squalls at least were accompanied by reasonably winds and temperatures that weren't super cold.

This time, those screaming 65 mph winds, heavy snow and plunging temperatures will lead to dangerous blizzard conditions in those squalls. 

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has been calling this a once in a generation storm. No kidding!

So, yeah, Buffalo is screwed.

Wild Lake Effect Storm Starting In Western New York. Four Feet In Buffalo?

The scene near Buffalo, New York after an extreme
November, 2014 lake effect snowstorm. Similar scenes
are possible by this weekend in that region. 

 If you live in Buffalo, New York and you want to measure the snow that's coming, I hope you have a yard stick, or two. 

This will be one epic lake effect storm. 

Up to four feet of snow might fall between now and Sunday, the epicenter of the deepest snow could end being right in downtown Buffalo, or the airport just inland. Some forecasters are going with six feet, so who knows?

New York Gov Kathy Hochul was set early today to declare a state of emergency in western and northern New York. Schools districts in Buffalo and nearby towns have already announced no school on Friday. 

Beginning later today, all commercial traffic, you know, tractor trailers are such, will be banned from the New York State Thruway from Rochester to the Pennsylvania border. 

The Buffalo Bills are scheduled to play the Cleveland Browns in Buffalo on Sunday.  At this point the game is still on. That ought to be interesting. 

Everything is set up for this tremendous dump off of Lake Erie, and to an ever so slightly less extent off Lake Ontario near Watertown, New York. 

The heaviest lake effect snows usually come in the late autumn and early winter. That's when the lake water is still relatively warm. The contrast between that warm water and the cold winter winds off the lake create the lake effect snow bands. The water temperature of lakes Erie and Ontario are actually warmer than average due to the near record high temperatures in early November. This will give the snow squalls an added boost. 

More often than not, lake effect snows near Buffalo focus on the southern suburbs since west and northwest winds off the lake would largely miss Buffalo.

This time, cold air has plunged deep into the middle of the United States, which would bend the wind into a southwesterly direction over Lake Erie. That means wind would blow over the entire length of Lake Erie, offering the best set up for heavy snow.  Since the winds will be out of the southwest, that would direct the worst of the snow toward the city of Buffalo itself. 

Associated Press photo of the aftermath of an extreme
lake effect snowstorm near Buffalo, New York in 2014.
Similar scenes are possible with a new storm starting now.

The bands of lake effect snow will be so intense between now and Friday night at least that there will be a fair amount of lightning and thunder.  There's already been reports of lightning near Buffalo overnight. 

As the National Weather Service office in Buffalo notes, the northern edge of the intense snow bands  in this type of set up have a sharp cut off between incredible snow accumulations and practically nothing.  

I'm sure by the end of the weekend we'll have photos of Buffalo behind a wall of snow while the sun shines serenely just a couple miles to the north.  

The gradient in snow south of Buffalo won't be as sharp, but still, some southern suburbs won't see this as anything too unusual.

The Buffalo area does experience extreme lake effect storms from time to time. This one will be among the worst.   

This storm might end up being comparable to a lake effect snow event in November, 2014 that dumped as much as 88 inches of snow on areas near Buffalo.  That storm focused mostly on Buffalo's southern suburbs and the southern parts of the city. In that storm, Buffalo schools were closed for a week, and 26 people died, mostly from trying to shovel all that snow. 

Another lake effect blast on December 24-28 dumped 81.5 inches of snow on Buffalo. 

By the way, the record for one day snowfall in Buffalo is 33.9 inches set on December 10, 1995. 

Up toward Watertown, several feet of snow are expected in spots between now and Saturday because of this weather setup.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Since this is such a powerful lake effect storm in western New York, a little bit of the snow will blow all the way into Vermont. 

The orientation of the snow bands this morning was already sending a little snow all the way to southern Vermont today, so a few places there, especially in the mountains could receive an inch or so of snow. 

Another little disturbance will capture some of that lake effect snow and bring it across Vermont on Friday. Current forecasts call for very minor accumulations, less than an inch.  But I've seen us get surprised before in this type of weather scenario with a few inches. Especially in the mountains. The northern Green Mountains might do surprisingly well with snow between now and Saturday. That's not a promise, but something to keep an eye on. 

Other than these little bursts of snow, we'll be at risk for flurries and light snow showers anytime now through Sunday. 

A piece of the infamous polar vortex will sort of stretch briefly toward northern New England Sunday, so that day might end up being surprisingly cold with highs not getting out of the 20s. Otherwise, it will be colder than average, but not extreme for the next week or so.