May Has Produced Some Dramatic Storm Videos, As Per Usual.

Cleanup starts after the devastating tornado in St. Louis
earlier this month. Photo by Brian Munoz via Facebook

Late April and May, living up to their usual stormy standards, has certainly produced some dramatic and sad moments across the United States.   

It's been busy and destructive this year, with particularly vicious, deadly storms striking St. Louis, Missouri and in Kentucky.  It's also been serious in other parts of the nation too.

This brings us to some videos of some of the worst, most dangerous and sometimes most tragic events of this spring. 

Following are some examples.

First,  a compilation of the tornadoes that hit Minnesota and Wisconsin May 15. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below click on that

Drone video of London, Kentucky of tornado damage. You can see how the core of tornado grinded homes into tiny little pieces. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below click on that

A harrowing news story of a family of seven in a London, Kentucky home that was picked up by the tornado with all of them inside and thrown across the street. Miraculously all seven just had minor injuries. Two next door neighbors died.  Again, click on this link to watch or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Another harrowing story of how a couple both lost arms while clinging to each other as the Kentucky tornado blasted through their house. Again, click on the link to view, or if you see the image below click on that:

Video follows the path of last week's tornado in St. Louis. Maps included show how densely populated the area that was hit was. Miracle only five people died in the city. Again, click on the link or if you see the image below, click on that:

Tornado and aftermath seen through a deputy sheriff's dash cam in Colorado. Click on this link or if you see image below click on that to view;

 

FEMA Is AWOL After St. Louis, Kentucky Tornadoes

Crews and volunteers start cleanup in front of badly
damaged homes in St. Louis in the wake of last
Friday's big tornado. FEMA has been notably absent
from both St. Louis and the Kentucky
tornado disaster zone.

 The Trump administration has vowed to get rid of FEMA, but officially, it still exists.

But apparently FEMA is in no hurry to help after the latest disasters.  

ST LOUIS

A week after an EF-3 tornado ripped through St. Louis, killing 5 people and causing an estimated $1 billion in damage, FEMA is nowhere to be found in the Gateway City

FEMA typically shows up within a few days after a disaster to start helping with immediate aid to help people just get through the days after the storm.  

With a disaster this big, presidents usually declare a federal disaster soon after the calamity hits. By now, FEMA should at least be mobilizing. But this time, crickets.

A few FEMA officials have joined state and federal teams to begin assessing damage, but there certainly has not been any full blown immediate aid yet. Nobody from the federal government is actually handing out aid. 

Missouri officials are beseeching the Trump administration to declare a disaster. On Monday, Missouri Gov Mike Kehoe, a Republican to issue a federal emergency declaration.

Also Sen. Josh Hawley, (R-MO) a staunch supporter of Trump, on Tuesday pushed Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to get an emergency declaration for Friday's storm ASAP.

FEMA and Trump have also not responded for pleas for help in Missouri for a series of floods and tornadoes in March and early April.

KENTUCKY

In Kentucky, five days after tornadoes killed at least 19 people and left huge swaths of destruction in part of the state, Kentuckians had still not heard from FEMA.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear asked for federal help on Saturday, just hours after the tornadoes swept through.  He said he spoke with Noem on Saturday.  "They vowed to help...They showed real empathy for our people."

But so far, there's been little tangible help in Kentucky from FEMA.  Usually FEMA swoops in shortly after a disaster to meet immediate needs, like helping with food distribution or putting tarps on damaged roofs so that rain won't cause added damage to the homes. 

FEMA did say a deadline for applying for aid after devastating February floods in Kentucky is May 25. And survivors of a second serious flood in the state in April have until June 25. But no mention of the tornadoes last Friday in Kentucky. 

Beshear said President Trump called him on Saturday, but other than that, we haven't heard a peep about the tornadoes from Trump.  In the past, if a disaster was big enough, he'd visit the town or city that was victimized. If the president didn't visit the disaster site, he'd make public remarks saying victims are in his thoughts, that the federal government would do everything it can to help and all that stuff. 

I guess Trump has better things to do lately, like debating whether Taylor Swift is still "hot," or battling Bruce Springsteen because The Boss dared to sharply criticize the Trump regime. 

St. Louis and Kentucky are giving us an early view of what disaster response will be like in the coming years. FEMA still exists, so some help is coming to those two disaster zones.

Future disaster victims might not be so "lucky." If Trump gets his wish, FEMA will cease to exist, and states and local governments will be on their own. Or, people will lose their homes and the federal government will just shrug its shoulders, say "tough luck" and move on to giving additional tax breaks to millionaires and billionaires.

By the way, hurricane season is just around the corner. NOAA on Friday issued a seasonal hurricane prediction that forecasts another busier than normal season in 2025.

The United States is getting more dystopian by the day. 

 

Did National Weather Service Staff Shortages Contribute To Kentucky Death Toll? Spoiler: Probably Not

Tornado destruction in London, Kentucky over
the weekend. Despite Trump administration staff
shortages at the National Weather Service, the 
local NWS office was adequately staffed to 
provide warnings, but they did have to scramble
schedules to make that happen,

The worst tornado in last Thursday and Friday's deadly tornado outbreak was in eastern Kentucky.

At least 17 of the reported 27 deaths in Friday's tornado occurred in Laurel County, especially in the towns of London and Somerset. 

Warnings were issued ahead of the tornado, but the the tornado was a worst case scenario. 

 It was so strong that it was unsurvivable in some of the hardest hit homes. Plus the twister came through around midnight, when many people were sleeping and thus unaware of any warnings.  

The bottom line is the deaths were probably virtually unavoidable whether or not warnings were issued or not. 

However, tornado warnings do save lives and the fact that the Kentucky communities had a heads up that a twister was coming probably did save lives

The National Weather Service office in Jackson, Kentucky was responsible for monitoring Friday's storms and issuing warnings when danger arose. 

That office is among the worst affected by NOAA's staff and resource cuts and shortages, thanks to the Trump administration's desire to cut services that actually help people and funnel the savings to billionaires. So they can buy more yachts or something. 

Jackson is one of a growing number of National Weather Service offices that are unable to cover overnight shifts due to the cutbacks. Jackson's NWS office needs 13 meteorologists. It has nine. The Meteorologist in Charge position in Jackson is vacant. 

That, understandably has led to speculation that those cutbacks hindered the Jackson office from issuing adequate warnings.  In other words, the accusation goes, Trump's cutbacks literally killed people in Laurel County, Kentucky.

These National Weather Service cutbacks may well result in deaths because of a lack of good forecasting and late or inaccurate warnings, 

But in this instance, it looks like that wasn't the case. Thanks mostly to scrambling, extra work and creative scheduling at the Jackson National Weather Service office.

Says the Washington Post: 

"'We saw the risk many days ago. We were already planning how we would staff days in advance,' said Christian Cassell, one of the office's lead meteorologists. By Thursday, the staff had set up a schedule to stagger shifts Friday 'knowing we were looking at nearly a full day of a threat of severe weather,' he said, 

'I'm goad to say we were very well staffed for the entirety of the event," Cassell said."

It also helped that the dangerous Kentucky weather was relatively short lived. In lasted from late Thursday night until early Saturday morning. Before and after that, the weather in Bluegrass State was relatively benign. So conditions didn't need close scrutiny. 

That the Jackson, Kentucky NWS office was able to stay on top of the storms Friday and issue timely warnings, doesn't absolve the Trump administration from responsibility for future deaths caused by severe weather and an inadequate National Weather Service staff.

Severe storms and tornadoes have been ongoing in different parts of the nation since last Thursday, and are expected to continue today and tomorrow.  When resources are stretched thin, a multi-day severe storm event can exhaust staff and lead to mistakes,

The recent tornado outbreak has been hopscotching between different regions of the nation, so any one National Weather Service office has not been exceptionally burdened, despite the difficulties with short staff nationwide. 

The real trouble will hit when a bout of dangerous weather lasts in a particular spot for several days.  What if the Jackson National Weather Service office had to deal with dangerous weather that lasted, say, five days in a row?  

Scrambling to staff an office during one day of severe storms is one thing. But five in a row? 

By the way, a new round of severe storms and tornadoes is forecast to hit Kentucky and surrounding areas tomorrow.  The Jackson office, and that of several others, might have to scramble for staffing today. 

In the Plains, the National Weather Service was kept busy with at least 30 tornadoes on Sunday. A possibly even worse Plains tornado outbreak is likely today, with Oklahoma City in the middle of the bullseye. 

Back in Kentucky, that state seems prone to mega-weather disasters, underscoring the importance of a fully staffed National Weather Service. 

In December, 2021 a violent tornado all but destroyed the city of Mayfield, Kentucky, killing 22 people in the community and 64 in Kentucky as a whole

In February, 2025, extensive flooding killed 22 Kentuckians. Less than two months later, in early April, another extreme flood hit Kentucky and surrounding states. 

Weather Mayhem In Midwest, South, East: More Than Two Dozen Dead In Tornadoes, Other Extreme Weather

Aerial view shows a row of damaged
homes in St. Louis after a tornado
passed through the city on Friday

Friday was a classic, tragic weather mayhem day in the nation 

Millions of people had to keep on their toes dodging tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, high winds, temperature extremes. Even dust storms in unlikely places.  

The worst of it was the tornadoes. So far 28 have been confirmed on Friday, with the count expected to go higher as damage is assessed. That's on top of the tornado tally for Thursday, which so far stands at 24. 

Worse, the death toll from the tornadoes had risen to 29 as of this morning. 

At least 23 people died in and near London, in southeastern Kentucky after a powerful tornado swept through that community. 

Video from London, Kentucky shows numerous houses completely leveled. Some were swept clean away, leaving behind a floor and nothing else, 

 Five of the storm-related deaths so far were in St. Louis, where at least one tornado swept through the city. One of those people died when a church collapsed.

As many as 5,000 homes in St. Louis were affected by the storm. Dozens of buildings in St. Louis lost roofs or walls.  Streets were littered and blocked with debris,f allen power lines and poles and wrecked cars.    

A brew pub in St. Louis collapsed with 20 people inside, but they all escaped with minor or no injuries. 

The Mid-Atlantic States didn't escape nature's wrath either. Several severe storms hit. At least one tornado touched down in New Jersey. Baltimore, Maryland  and southern Delaware were under tornado warnings at various points yesterday. 

The roof of the Merritt Athletic Club in Baltimore blew off, wrecking the building and damaging some surrounding structures. A possible tornado damaged several homes and buildings in Dundalk, Maryland, southeast of Baltimore. 

DUST STORM

Strong winds behind the storm's cold front stirred up winds gusting to 60 mph or more. These swept over newly plowed farm fields in Illinois. This created a wall of dust along a 100 mile line that eventually swept into Chicago.  

Approaching dust storm in Illinois Friday. Chicago was under
a first-ever dust storm warning on Friday.

So yes, Chicago had the first-ever experience of being under a dust storm warning Friday evening. 

 During the height of the dust storm, Chicago's Midway airport reported gusts to 59 mph and a quarter mile visibility in blowing dust. 

The poor visibility led to several traffic crashes in Illinois. Sections of Interstates 74 and 55 were shut down by the dust near Bloomington, in central Illinois.

Big dust storms have been usually common this spring in vast areas of the Plains States,

TEMPERATURE EXTREMES

The Northern Plains have certainly been on a wild temperature roller coaster. 

One example in Minot, North Dakota. On May 10-12 they had daily highs of  94, 99 and 95 degrees. On Friday, the high temperature there was just 41 degrees and there was a freeze warning in effect this morning. 

Overall, the northern tier of states will have cool conditions for the next several days at least, Summer is still not here yet! 

OUTLOOK

The bad weather isn't over yet. More tornadoes and severe storms are likely in and around Texas today. Other severe storms might be scattered over northern New York and New England, including here in Vermont.

A new tornado outbreak is possible in the central Plains Sunday and Monday and in the Southeast Tuesday, 

 

Midwest Tornado Outbreak To Get Even Worse Today; Here In Vermont, More Rain, Slight Flood, Severe Weather Threat

Another day of severe weather and tornadoes today in
large portions of the U.S. Most at risk for strong tornadoes
is in the orange and especially red areas of the map. 

 As expected, several tornadoes touched down Thursday, mostly in Minnesota and Wisconsin with Round 1 of a severe weather outbreak.  That outbreak will move south and get even worse today and tonight. 

Meanwhile, here in Vermont, the weather won't get especially dangerous, but big changes are on the way and there are still some minor threats from possible flooding and strong storms.

I'll get into Vermont details in a moment, but first a national update

STORM OUTBREAK

At least 14 tornadoes touched down in the Upper Midwest Thursday and that number might rise as damage is assessed. 

Even some places that didn't have a tornado got nailed by severe weather. Storm winds gusted to 79 mph in Gardner, Illinois, 74 mph in Bonfield, Illinois and 73 mph in Thief River Falls, up in northern Minnesota.

Even places that didn't have severe weather were hit be strong winds. The strong low pressure system that spawned the tornadoes created wind gusts as high as 64 mph in Pierre, South Dakota. 

A big Beyonce concert at Chicago's Soldier Field was delayed for hours after storms swept the area with strong winds and torrential rains. 

So far, there's been no reports of deaths or serious injuries from the Upper Midwest storms. 

However, today looks even worse than Thursday. 

An area centered on the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers is set up for some bad stuff today. That includes Kentucky, southeast Missouri, and southern Illinois and Indiana. This includes the cities of St. Louis, Cincinnati, Lexington and Louisville, Kentucky and Evansville, Indiana. 

Those areas are under a moderate risk of tornadoes with is a level 4 out of 5 alert level. Forecasters are worried the area later today and tonight will be raked by numerous tornadoes and otherwise damaging thunderstorms.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center wrote,  "Several strong tornadoes are expected, and a long-track high-end tornado will be possible." 

High end, long-tracked tornadoes are relatively rare, and are responsible for the most destruction and potential highest death toll of any twister.

Beyond that, daily risks of severe storms and tornadoes in various parts of the U.S, will continue Saturday through Tuesday. Monday looks especially dangerous in and around Oklahoma, 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The warm weather this week has really gotten my large
lilac bushes to bloom around my St. Albans, Vermont
house.  Smells great out there in the breeze.

The weather here in Vermont over the next few days will be interesting, but not violent. 

The Green Mountain State has one more day of summer today before an extended chilly spell hits. Burlington had its fourth day in a row in the 80s Thursday and today will probably make it five. 

Today will be a mixed bag, with sunshine, and scattered showers and storms. Some places will get nailed by heavy, slow moving rainers while other areas will barely be touched. 

We had a foretaste of what is to come Thursday. While most of us had a partly sunny, warm  summer day,  slow-moving thunderstorms that dropped heavy rain , mostly in sections of southern Vermont.

In far southern Vermont, in the mountains east of Bennington around Searsburg and Woodford State Park, a flood advisory was briefly issued Thursday evening as storms there dumped at least two inches of rain in a short period of time.

A special weather statement was also issued in Rutland County for slow moving storms that had the potential to cause minor flooding.

Today, the storms will be more widespread than they were yesterday.  Any storms that do form will move slowly like they did yesterday, leaving open the opportunity for isolated instances of flash flooding. NOAA' Weather Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk for flash flooding today, a level one out of four alert levels. 

Hard to say in advance who gets bullseyed by storms and who avoids the worst of it.  It's a roll of the dice

Saturday

Yes, Saturday will definitely be the eighth one in a row with rain. It won't rain all day, but there will be frequent enough showers and possibly thunderstorms. 

The wild card is Saturday afternoon.  If it stays cloudy all day the round of showers coming in during the afternoon won't have much instability to work with, so we'd just get downpours, and no strong thunderstorms. 

However, we get an interval of sunshine in the late morning and early afternoon, that would prime the pump for a few scattered strong to severe storms.  If it happens it won't be anything widespread but it's something to keep in mind. 

NOAA has Vermont in both a low level risk of severe storms and a marginal risk of flash flooding for Saturday.  Whatever happens will be fairly isolated, and not another full scale disaster like we've seen in recent years.

Beyond Saturday

Hope you liked summer this week because it's over. We're in for a long period of chilly, unsettle weather that should last at least a week, maybe more.  

The rain should continue Saturday night and into Sunday.  Rainfall totals between now and Sunday evening should be more than inch across most of Vermont. Places that really get hit hard by repeated downpours could get two or more inches of rain.

Starting Monday and continuing through next week, it's hard to tease out exactly when and how much rain will fall. But we know temperatures will be below normal, it'll be more cloudy than sunny and daily temperatures should stay mostly in the 50s and low 60s. 

I'm not sure when summer weather will return, but it'll be a long wait.    

 

Winter Storm Battering Flood Ravaged Kentucky As Nation's Intense Winter Weather Continues.

 Kentucky just can't catch a break.

Flooding with snow on the ground in
Kentucky on Sunday. A winter storm
is dumping several inches of
additional snow on the flood-
ravaged state this morning. 

The death toll from this past weekend's flooding in the state has risen to 14. An additional three people died from the flooding in adjacent West Virginia. 

The flooding hit all of Kentucky, from near the Mississippi River in the west to the Appalachians in the east.

The flooding prompted something like 1,000 water rescues, and at least 300 roads were shut down by the high water.  

The flash flooding from the weekend is over, but some rivers haven't crested quite yet. Moderate and sometimes major flooding was still going on along at least three Kentucky rivers as of early Tuesday morning. 

Now, a winter storm is about to hit Kentucky, with two to six inches of snow falling on the flood zones tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to fall into the single numbers Wednesday and Thursday nights

This weather misery comes as Kentucky has endured other outsized disasters in recent years. 

In December, 2021, a swarm of tornadoes in Kentucky killed more than 80 people and left trails of destruction behind. 

An enormous Kentucky flash flood in July 2022, left 45 people dead and left widespread destruction. 

Now this.  

It's hard enough to start digging out from a flood in warm weather. Imagine trying to do it while temperatures are well below zero and there's a few inches of snow on the ground. The mud freezes into a hard concrete, so you can't shovel it away. Wet items that need to be removed from wrecked buildings are frozen together. 

People trying to deal with all the wet, destroyed property are especially prone to hypothermia and frostbite. 

It's really a tough week in Kentucky,

The rough late season winter blast isn't just affecting Kentucky. Winter storm warnings extend to the Carolina and Virginia coastlines, where five to nine inches of snow is forecast.

Extreme cold warnings and advisories extend from Montana and North Dakota all the way down to the Gulf Coast.

Minot, North Dakota was enjoying a comparatively mild morning today as it got down to 23 below.  It was 33 below there Tuesday morning and 30 below Monday.  Those are actual temperatures, not wind chill. 

The frigid temperatures and snowstorms are forecast to at least temporarily relax over the next few days, giving some places, mostly areas west of the Mississippi River an early taste of spring next week.

VERMONT EFFECTS

For once, a storm is going to miss us completely. First time that's happened all month\

The winter storm that's been hitting from the Midwest to North Carolina and Virginia is going to eventually evolve into a pretty substantial nor'easter. But it will be far, far off the coast, passing about a couple hundred miles southeast of Cape Cod.

Instead, it'll stay very cold today and to extent tomorrow before a slow warming trend arrives. A weak disturbance could put down a dusting to two inches of snow Thursday, but nothing big for a change. 

We will still probably get into a brief warm-ish spell Sunday through to the middle of next week, where valleys should get above freezing daily, maybe even 40 degrees in the banana belt towns. 

But this does not herald spring.  The overall trend is for colder than average weather well into March, at least as it looks now. 

Deadly Storm Causes Catastrophic Floods, Tornadoes, Winds, Widespread Damage

Flooding in Kentucky killed at least eight people over the
weekend as an intense winter storm spread havoc to
most places in the central and eastern U.S. 

 The storm affecting us in Vermont also as expected caused deadly havoc in other parts of the nation as moves coast to coast. 

At least eight deaths have been reported in Kentucky due to the flooding. The death toll could rise as flooding is still ongoing as of this afternoon. 

All of Kentucky was under a flood warning this morning, as was much of West Virginia and parts of Ohio, Indiana and Tennessee.

To add insult to injury. snow fell in much of Kentucky Sunday as flood waters continued to swirl. Louisville suffered widespread flooding Saturday. Sunday morning, snow swept into the city, helping to cause on a highway in the city. 

On Sunday, a levee along the Obion River failed near the town of Rives, rapidly flooding the town and forcing hasty water rescues. 

Mudslides were reported in eastern Kentucky, and a rockslide temporarily shut down Interstate 69 in Dawson Springs, Kentucky. 

Damaging floods also extended into western Virginia. 

 Also, depending on where you were in West Virginia, you might be under a flood warning, a blizzard warning or possibly both. 

Further south, tornadoes and severe weather were the issue. 

Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport reported a gust to 69 mph during the early morning storms.   At least one death was reported in Atlanta where a tree fell on a house. 

Two confirmed tornadoes were reported near Monticello, Georgia, southeast of Atlanta. 

A remarkably huge area is under high wind warnings or wind advisories. They extended this morning from Mississippi and Florida all the way through New England. 

As of late afternoon, at least 310,000 power outages were reported, mostly in Virginia, Georgia, Alabama and West Virginia 

Meanwhile, intense cold was plunging southward through the Plains. 

Parts of North Dakota were expecting three consecutive nights in the minus 30s, with wind chills in the 50s below zero. 

Frigid temperatures are plunging south into Texas. Extreme cold weather watches for expected wind chills below zero are in effect as far south as central Texas. 

In the snowy, icy Northeast, a blizzard warning was in effect for the mountains of south central Pennsylvania where heavy snow was forecast to combine with winds up to 65 mph. A blizzard warning was also up in the northwest corner of New York around Massena. 

I'll have an update on the storm in Vermont very late this afternoon or early evening. 

Potentially Deadly Severe Weather/Tornado Outbreak Looms Today In Midwest, East

Areas in yellow, orange and especially red are at risk
for tornadoes today. Some tornadoes might be strong,
long lasting and have a fast forward motion. 

The same complex storm system that has us set up for a winter storm here in Vermont this week is causing plenty of even more dangerous weather in much of the nation.  

This will probably be another storm that causes more than $1 billion in damage. That's because it's hitting so many areas with such a wide variety of dangerous weather. 

Between the giant hailstones in populated areas, the tornadoes, the high winds in severe thunderstorms, the flooding, the power outages and tree damage expected in the interior Northeast and coastal flooding along the East Coast, this one will be expensive.

Already, no fewer than three tornadoes hit parts of the Midwest and Plains Monday, though certain other twisters will be confirmed as meteorologists examine the damage today. 

Perhaps worse, big hailstones hit a number of busy towns and cities in Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri and other states. One storm in Texas produced grapefruit sized hail. Many other communities saw hail the size of tennis balls or baseballs. 

Winds in some storms gusted as high as 88 mph 

Today, severe weather forecasters are especially worried about Ohio and Kentucky. Ohio has already been hit by destructive tornadoes this year, and it's early in the storm season.

The set up today looks potentially extra dangerous. 

An initial wave of severe storms swept through southern Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky early this morning, producing several tornado warnings and possible actual tornadoes.

Quite a bit of damage was reported with this initial band of storms, and more problems were cropping up before noon as this line swept into West Virginia.  

Famous photograph of a huge tornado in Xenia, Ohio
back in 1974.  Forecasters fear large tornadoes 
could once again hit Ohio today. 

Those storms will clear out by this afternoon, setting the stage for what could be even more powerful supercells this afternoon. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says there's a risk of strong, long-lived tornadoes in Ohio and Kentucky this afternoon and evening.

It's usually time to worry when they start throwing words like that around. 

The numerous intense storms are also expected to have a fast forward motion, meaning they might not be a lot of time for residents to take cover if they are warned about an approaching tornado.

The area around the Ohio River Valley under that tornado threat today is no stranger to big tornado outbreaks during March and April.  The area around Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky suffered through massive, deadly tornado outbreaks during the Palm Sunday Outbreak of 1965, the famous "Super Outbreak" in 1974 and a big swarm of tornadoes in March, 2012,

Not Just Vermont: Misery Loves Company In Worldwide Floods

On July 12, the day after the Lamoille River receded enough,
Vermont highway crews begin repairs near the Wrong
Way Bridge along Route 15 in Cambridge. 

 Vermonters know from painful recent experience that we don't want anybody else to go through what we just did this month.  

Alas, a lot of people are going through this. Not only is the world baking in record heat this summer, It's also drowning in floods. 

It's everywhere. In neighboring New Hampshire and Massachusetts, floodwaters destroyed roads and houses in a daylong deluge on Sunday. 

In Pennsylvania, at least five people, including children, died in a remarkably sudden flash flood that caught them unaware in a semi-rural part of Bucks County. The flooding spread to New Brunswick, New Jersey Tuesday, nearly drowning  a family trying to escape the onrushing water. 

Just Wednesday morning, news broke of a flash flood emergency and "particularly dangerous situation in western Kentucky, especially around the city of Mayfield.  Nearly a foot of rain fell on the area in just a few hours, necessitating numerous water rescues. 

If Mayfield rings a bell, it's because it was the town decimated by a huge tornado in December, 2021.  Like that hurting town needs another big disaster. But there you go. 

It goes far beyond the United States. 

At least 40 people died in South Korea this month as flash floods lashed much of that nation.  Many of the victims were trapped in a tunnel when it almost instantly filled up with water. 

Monsoon floods strike India every summer, but this year's version is pretty extreme, even by their standards.

Floodwaters approached the famed Taj Mahal, though water is not expected to enter the World Heritage Site. However, it's rare for the flooding river to rise to levels so close to the compound. 

Severe floods last week also struck Japan, China and Turkey.

Floods occur every year somewhere, and this has gone on for millennia. Some of these floods are horrific.    But just like the greater propensity we've seen for heat waves in recent summers, floods have become a bigger threat, too. It's another climate change thing. 

As Phys.org points out:

"For every 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) that the atmosphere warms, it holds approximately 7 % more moisture. According to NASA, the average global temperature has increased by at least 1.1 degrees Celsius (1.9 degrees Fahrenheit since 1880.

'Sixty-eight degree Fahrenheit can hold twice as mulch water as 50 degrees Fahrenheit,' said Rodney Wynn, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in  Tampa Bay. 'Warm air expands and cool air contracts. You can think of it as a balloon - when it's heated the volume is going to get large, so therefore it can hold more moisture.'

 This summer, El Nino has taken hold. El Nino generally heats the world up. It's working in concert with climate change to give us a glimpse of what the world's future will be like in the not distant future.

Don't think for a minute Vermont is free from any more giant floods since we've just been through two in 12 years. 

A Dartmouth study indicates extreme precipitation events in the Northeast are projected to increase by 52 percent by the end of the century. They definite these extreme events as 1.5 inches of rainfall or melted snow within a day. 

 The Dartmouth researchers said rainfall extremes have already increased markedly since about 1996.   The projected increase  in extreme rainfall would be blunted somewhat if real steps to sharply reduce carbon emissions take hold, but I'm not counting on that. 

One thing we can count on, sooner or later. Vermont will suffer another episode like we have this month. I hope Vermont officials continue to take seriously their commitment to build back with even more resilience in mind. 

Latest Victim Is Dallas: Epic Rains This Summer As Impressive As The Heat Waves

From extreme drought to extreme flood. Here, a 
wildfire consumes houses in Balch Springs, Texas,
a Dallas suburb, one month ago......

The incredible rain storms just keep coming this summer, almost matching the constant onslaught of heat waves affecting different parts of the world. 

Every day it seems, there's news of a fresh, intense flash flood. Virginia, Kentucky, Illinois, Phoenix, Tucson, Flagstaff, Sioux Falls, even Las Vegas. Some of these floods are hitting places that were deep in drought when the storms hit. 

The latest victim is what was until this past weekend night bone dry Dallas, Texas. 

Four to eight inches of rain deluged the city overnight Sunday into Monday.  In just one hour, 3.01 inches of rain fell in at the officials weather station at Dallas-Fort Worth airport, its wettest hour dating back to at least 1953.  That amount of rain in one hour is more than in any other month so far this year.  

In all 9.19 inches of rain fell on the Dallas-Fort Worth airport, its second wettest day on record. A station in East Dallas reported 15.16 inches. The flooding was localized, but badly localized, concentrating on a heavily populated part of Texas. McKinney, just 25 miles north of Dallas, reported only a very manageable 0.86 inches of rain.  

At least one person was reported dead in the flooding. There were many other close calls. 

That same Dallas suburb of Balch Springs that was
on fire a month ago was inundated by Monday. 

Videos from Dallas show extreme flooding in neighborhoods. Other videos show water rescues, including one man who appeared to nearly drown before being pulled to safety by emergency responders.

Other social media posts showed a couple feet of water inside some homes and apartments. 

The flooding whiplashed the area from drought to flood. In the Dallas suburb of Balch Springs, a wildfire destroyed several homes one month ago. Parts of that same suburb was inundated Monday.

This is at least the third one in one thousand year flood in the United States this summer.  St. Louis and Kentucky had their own thousand year floods this summer

Summer is the season for flash floods in the United States, especially mid and late summer.  The jet stream is way north in Canada, so if you get a good thunderstorm complex, chances are it will move very slowly, dumping intense rains on one spot for a long time. 

The Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean have had much of the summer to heat up, so now those huge bodies of water are finding it easy to send soupy, tropical air deep into the United States, just begging to trigger downpours. 

Also, the monsoon season in the Desert Southwest and southern Rocky Mountains is in full swing, increasing the chances of flash flooding. 

Interstate 30 in Dallas early Monday.

Plus, the peak of hurricane season is coming soon, in the second half of August and September. Those storms tend to produce serious inland flooding. 

This summer, however, has really been especially awful in the flash flood department. It's been in the news plenty, but aside from the human despair and deaths many of these floods have caused, the amount of rain has been way off the charts. 

These aren't your grandparents' extreme rainfall events. They're worse.  Climate change has taken what would have been pretty destructive, stressful events and supercharged them. Extreme rainfall is now, well, more extreme than it used to be. 

We live in a new era in which our infrastructure isn't built for this type of thing. More on that further below, but first:

Let's go through some of the highlights:

ST. LOUIS

The July 26  flash flood dumped nine inches of rain on the city's official measuring site in just one day, besting the St. Louis' previous 24 hour record by two inches. Some areas near St. Louis reported a foot of rain. The city also reported 7.68 inches of rain in just six hours, which is roughly double the amount of rain St. Louis normally receives in the entire month of July. 

Within just 12 hours, St Louis received a full 25 percent of its normal annual rainfall. 

To add insult to injury, another destructive flash flood struck St. Louis on August 3, dumping another four to five inches of rain 

KENTUCKY

The worst flood so far this summer was in eastern Kentucky, as previously mournfully noted in this blog thingy. 

One fairly narrow swath of mountainous terrain was blasted by about 15 inches of rain in four days,with most of that falling in a 24 hour period. A much larger area received six to 10 inches of rain. 

So much water fell that not only were these mountainous regions devastated. Larger communities downstream that did not receive much rain were also trashed. These communities are along main stem rivers which have some of their tributaries come from those mountains. These rivers reached record crests in places like Jackson, where the north fork of the Kentucky River reached a record crest.

This was the second one in 1,000 year flood the nation saw in less than a week. 

The owner of the popular Isom IGA grocery store in Kentucky
surveys the damage after the extreme flooding. The water
in the store had been six feet deep.

Note, this does not mean this kind of flood only comes once every thousand years. It means that every year, you have a one in one thousand chance of seeing an event like this. Big difference. 

The Kentucky flooding has also created one of the worst humanitarian crises the United States has seen in decades. The remote mountainous area of Kentucky had winding roads that were iffy at the best of times. They're now washed out, making it hard to reach people who need help.

The area has one of the highest rates of poverty in the nation. 

On top of that, new flash floods have kept cropping up in a wet weather pattern since the peak of this flood. These new floods have prevented a start on cleanup, and in some cases undid repairs. As I was working on this piece Sunday afternoon, new flood watches were in effect for eastern Kentucky, among other areas of Appalachia.   

Not all that far to the northwest, in central and southern Illinois, another intense round of rain dumped four to eight inches of rain on August 4-5,  causing some pretty intense floods there.

DESERT STORM

As noted, monsoons often cause summertime flash floods in the Desert Southwest, but this year has been particularly wild. 

One day in July, Furnace Creek in Death Valley recorded 1.46 inches of rain, just 0.01 inches short of the record. The more impressive statistic is that Death Valley on average only gets about two inches of rain per year, so they received 75 percent the normal yearly allotment in just a few hours. 

About 1,000 employees and visitors to the park were stranded there until roads could be cleared in a day or so. The park's emergency services building and some residences also flooded.

In Las Vegas, torrential rain overloaded streets and roof drains. Water gushed from the electronic odds board at Cirq. Water poured from the ceiling at Planet Hollywood and Caesar's Palace, but gamblers there kept at the slot machines even as water poured down on them. Sigh. 

And it continues. Just on Saturday, Moab, Utah became the latest victim of the Southwest Monsoon. Most of that city's downtown endured a flash flood that dumped two to three feet of water inside businesses and homes. Mud, boulders, cars and trees were swept down the town's main streets. 

ALASKA

Finally, we have Utquiagvik, Alaska, formerly known as Barrow, at the northern tip of the state, had its wettest day on record on July 23. A total of 1.42 inches fell. That doesn't sound like much, especially compared to the foot or more of rain that assaulted places like Virginia, Kentucky and Illinois. 

But 1.42 inches is pretty incredible for Utqiagvik, which is basically arid tundra that just seems to get constant light snow, except of light, cold showers, sprinkles and wet snow flurries all summer. Total melted precipitation there for an entire year should amount to about 5.4 inches. 

For context, 5.4 inches of rain is about what normally falls on Vermont within six weeks during the summer. 

This is only the third time since at least 1920 that Utqiagvik had more than inch of rain in a single day. 

In an upcoming post, I'll have more on how these big rain events are increasing due to climate change, and how our infrastructure is not ready for all this. 

 

Kentucky Flash Flood Weighs On Me More Than Most Other Climate Disasters

Like most Americans, I'm in shock and in mourning over this past week's mega flash flood in Kentucky. 

In a photo posted on Twitter by @ShawnRichards,
a 98-woman is trapped in her flooded 
Kentucky home. She was later rescued
and is now reported to be safe.

At last report, the confirmed death toll is at 26, including four children.  More are missing and the death toll will rise.  These stats are awful, but don't haunt me as much as the photos from the flood zone. 

There was one pic on social media showing a 98 year old woman trying to balance on a chair floating in three feet of water inside her Kentucky home. (She was later rescued and was reported to be safe). 

Or a road that once had a row of house. The houses are gone now, leaving behind a couple concrete slabs.  What happened to the people in those houses?

The flash flood hit in the middle of the night. Eight inches of rain poured down on steep terrain already waterlogged by repeated rounds of thunderstorms in the past month. This was the second 1 in 1,000 year flood to hit a part of the United States within a week. (St. Louis was hit a couple days earlier).

The timing of this cataclysmic flood could not have been worse. It was the middle of the night. Maybe the sound of the initial downpours roaring on the roofs that evening lulled people into a relaxing sleep. They certainly weren't ready to hear the flash flood warnings. Plus, the water came so fast, who could react in time?

Walls of water and mud poured off the slopes in the darkness. Victims awoke to the sound of rushing water and debris flowing into their homes, or making their homes float away while they were inside. It had to be beyond terrifying. You couldn't see in the darkness, you couldn't find your loved ones as the cold water and debris battered their houses, and their bodies. 

That hundreds of people have been rescued is in itself a miracle. And a testament to the bravery of Kentuckians who went out on this rescue missions.

The Kentucky disaster affected me more than most of the other stream of climate related disasters we've had this year, and in the past few. Yes, this one was probably climate driven. Heavy rain storms are now heavier under a climate change regime. What might have been a problematic flash flood a few decades ago was catastrophic now. 

First of all, it's not like Kentucky needed another storm crisis. 

As the New York Times reports in this run on sentence: 

"'I wish I could tell you why we keep getting hit here in Kentucky,' Gov Andy Beshear said during a briefing in which he updated residents on the rising death toll and displayed a sense of anguish and exhaustion that many in the state have felt after recurring disasters, including a powerful ice storm last year that cut off power to 150,000 people in eastern Kentucky, a flash flood last July that left many stranded in their homes and a rare December tornado that carved a nearly 200-mile path of destruction that killed 80 people."

The other disasters, and this week's flood in particular, hit people that have even fewer resources to deal with kind of thing that most people. 

An irony of the Kentucky flood is it hit coal country. But the coal industry is now greatly diminished, as the world works toward finding other sources of energy other than things like coal, which contribute greatly to climate change. 

This declining coal industry left Appalachia, including the flood zone, even more impoverished than it was before. Which means the people suffering most from this disaster the fewest means to recover from it 

And no, before you leap to conclusions, I'm not blaming the former coal miners and their families for the flash flood that just ruined their lives. They are innocent in this whole thing.

This terrible flood hit kind of close to home for me, too. I grew up in Vermont, which at first glance cannot seem more different than the hollows of eastern Kentucky. 

You can see in the news footage that this flood did not hit the kind of quaint, prosperous and pretty villages Vermont is famous for. The disaster zone was pretty gritty even before the first drops of rain fell last week. 

But there really are a lot of similarities between Vermont and eastern Kentucky. I grew up in West Rutland, Vermont. Don't get me wrong, West Rutland is a wonderful small town. But it's not touristy Woodstock or Stowe. It's decidedly working class. People in West Rutland don't have million dollar bank accounts handy to recover from setbacks. 

And it's surrounded by steep mountains. There's also a lot of winding back, gravel roads and blacktop rural lanes that wind up and down these hills. Modest houses, many more than you'd think, are hidden in these woods. I just pictured the same storm that hit Kentucky roaring through West Rutland and environs. And shuddered. 

Most other areas of Vermont, away from the tourist destinations, are very much like West Rutland.

We're certainly not immune from these terrible flash floods. Vermont has essentially the same terrain as eastern Kentucky. It's easy for heavy rains to prompt terrible flash floods and we certainly have a history of those. November, 1927. September, 1938. June, 1973. August, 1995. July, 1997. June, 1998. the spring floods of 2011. Tropical Storm Irene, August, 2011.

Those floods all caused tremendous damage in Vermont, and some of them resulted in deaths. There's videos on YouTube of serious Irene flooding in West Rutland. 

But climate change ups the ante. It could even possibly be much worse than that video taken from a truck splashing through 2011 West Rutland flood waters. The Kentucky flood was "impossible" until it happened. Other impossible extremes are also happening. Will the impossible happen in Vermont? I really don't know. 

My mother died in May, and now the West Rutland house where she lived and where I grew up in is up for sale. A nice young couple is interested in buying it. The house isn't near any creeks or streams. It's on a hill, not a flood plain. I don't recall it ever suffering any kind of flood damage. 

But the stakes are now higher. If this couple buys the house, I don't think they'll ever have to deal with flooding. If they buy, I hope the enjoy the place for many, many years.

But suddenly, I no longer am that sure that house will survive a climate disaster. Or my house in St. Albans, Vermont. Or anybody else's house for that matter.

It's not that I stay up all night worrying about it. But that thought is in the back of my head. And if we're honest, it's in the back of many people's heads. It probably was for some of the flood victims in Kentucky, and then the nightmare became a reality. 

The chances of an "impossible" weather calamity hitting any individual is low. But unlike in past decades, the impossible is now possible. As Kentucky and St. Louis demonstrated last week.

 

Another Day, Another Huge Flash Flood Disaster, This Time Kentucky

Hindman, Kentucky this morning amid massive flash floods

 Two days after up to a foot of rain swamped St. Louis and environs, another extreme flash flood has hit eastern Kentucky. 

It was pretty much a worst case scenario: Up to ten inches of rain poured down on already waterlogged, rugged terrain in the middle of the night, sending walls of water through hamlets in the valleys below. 

As of this writing the extent of the loss is just beginning to be assessed as communications are cut off and roads are impassable. I greatly fear loss of life, as it's clear a number of homes and cars were swept away and disintegrated in the extreme flash flooding. So far one death has been confirmed, but that number could easily rise. 

NBC News says about 20 people are unaccounted for in just one county, but it's unclear if it's because people can't reach the area where the people are, or whether they are in jeopardy. 

Early video from the disaster zone shows houses crunched up against trees or embankments, or completely missing. Piles of wood that might have been houses are along the shores of creek beds that are now receding. 

In some ways, this disaster isn't a surprise.  Serious flash flooding had been expected in the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians all week.  The threat is not over at all.  Torrential downpours are expected in many of the same areas today and tomorrow. 

Other significant flash floods are ongoing and expected to spread through parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado as monsoon moisture causes downpours there. It's especially dangerous near spots that recently had wildfires, since the rains will set off debris flows of mud, ash and charred branches. 

Flash flooding and debris flows have been harassing Flagstaff, Arizona all week. 

The Monday St. Louis floods, which dumped up to a foot of rain in just a few hours, caused two deaths and widespread damage.  The city had 25 percent of its normal annual rainfall in just 12 hours. 

I'll keep an eye on updates from Kentucky, and the expected new flooding in that region this week.

Six Months After Huge Tornado, Mayfield, KY A Blank Slate. Where Will It Go?

Screen grab from video showing Mayfield, Kentucky
six months after a tornado decimated the city. Lots of 
depressing empty lots in the community's downtown now.

 It has already been about six months since one of the nation's most destructive tornadoes in over a decade decimated the small city of Mayfield, Kentucky.     

The December 10 storm wiped out much of the city, including virtually all of its historic downtown. 

As you can see by the video below, most of the debris has been hauled away since December.  

Now is the most depressing part of Mayfield's saga. There's just blank concrete slabs where buildings once stood. Empty lot after empty lot is all that's left of where homes, businesses and other enterprises once hummed along nicely.

We still don't know what the fate of this city will be. There are certainly signs of life.  As governing.com points out, a barbecue restaurant called The Barn is about to reopen in a new building on the main drag through town. That's a nice early sign of a rebirth. 

A few houses are being rebuilt, too, but they are still few and far between. The future is, of course, uncertain. Other towns famously destroyed by tornadoes have bounced back, which is a hopeful sign. 

The small city of Greensburg, Kansas has half the population it had before a 2007 tornado completely leveled the community. But most of the people who stayed or moved back to Greensburg are younger. The town has also become a showcase for renewable building and energy use from renewables. There's still some sense of vibrancy there.

The city of Joplin, Missouri is thriving 11 years after an immense tornado destroyed much of the community.  Joplin's population is now actually larger than it was before the tornado, with more businesses and educational opportunities than pre-tornado times. And the rebuilt houses are designed to be more storm resistant. 

So. there's still hope for Mayfield. To residents there, the road back is still an unknown quantity.  The emptiness is no doubt haunting. But we can hope that Mayfield can be a solid city again. 

Here's the video of the city, six months after. Click on this link if you don't see the image of the video on your device.

Welcome To Spring! Oops!, It's Gone, Single Digit Cold And A Snowstorm On Our Doorstep.

A rapid snow and ice melt.  Part of my yard in St. Albans
Vermont looked like this late Tuesday afternoon......

 As expected, we awoke to springtime in Vermont this morning. Temperatures for most of us were in the 50s, the brooks were running full and strong and where did the snow that was in our yards yesterday go?  

This spring is very, very brief, as it will be in the 20s by this afternoon, single digits tonight, and -  the piece de resistance - all of Vermont is under a winter storm watch. 

As of 8 a.m. the sharp cold front was on our doorstep.  It was a balmy 56 degrees in Burlington and 59 in Montpelier and Rutland out of ahead of this front. These would be record highs except or the extreme, bizarre February heat wave we had back in 2017 that made today's record highs ridiculously high. 

Temperatures as of 8 a.m. were falling fast everywhere west of Plattsburgh, and we'll get into the crashing temperatures any minute.

There might be a few scattered rain showers as the front comes through, but if there are, they'll hardly amount to anything. In the unstable, cold air behind the front, a few snow showers might crop up but again, don't worry about it.

Flooding is still a threat today as ice jams continue to move about on swollen rivers.  Rainfall was actually a little less than forecast last night, but snow melt really took charge with the runoff into brooks and streams. Route 4 around Woodstock was occasionally under water because of an ice jam on the Ottaquechee River. At last report Route 4 remained open, but there's no guarantees with ice jams. 

After a quiet and cold Thursday we have our snowstorm to talk about.

Before we get into that, can we look at Arkansas and Kentucky again?  Hear me out. All winter, those two states have been buffeted by severe thunderstorms, destructive tornadoes, repeated, often serious flooding and damaging winter storms. 

The worst of seemingly every storm this winter has hit that area.

True to form, the storm that will eventually give us our Friday snowstorm will cause havoc in Arkansas and Kentucky first. Western Kentucky and much of Arkansas, especially the northeastern part of that state, are in for a destructive ice storm over the next couple of days. 

......The same spot in my yard at 7:30 a.m today. That ice
was slick underfoot. I'm glad a lot of it is gone! 

Ice might accumulate up to three quarters or even maybe an inch, which would cause a lot of damage to trees and power lines. Meanwhile, much of Kentucky faces a new round of flooding from this storm. 

The storm will lift northeastward, then jump to the coast south of New England Friday.

SNOWSTORM

Vermont looks as if it will be in the sweet spot for snow, especially southern Vermont.  There, up to a foot could fall.  Northern Vermont will probably see something closer to six inches. That's because the storm will have to overcome some dry air first to get the snow going, and the north will be a little further from the storm, so less moisture will be available.

One wild card: If upper level support is weaker than expected for rising air during the storm in northern Vermont, that would cut the expected accumulation by a lot.  If the storm whiffs anywhere in Vermont, it would be the north. But for now, it looks like areas north of Route 2 should still see a decent six inches or so. 

Generally speaking for most of the rest of Vermont,  expect 6 to 10 inches of snow. Forecasters don't think we'll deal with any freezing rain or sleet, which is a pleasant change considering how this winter has gone. The snow will be powdery, so it won't be all that hard to clean up. 

Snow is forecast to roll in before dawn in southern Vermont and start around the morning commute up north. It'll snow all day, so the trip home Friday evening will be a bit of a chore on the roads, too.

The weekend should be pleasant enough, with highs in the 20s Saturday and maybe low 30s Sunday ahead of an Arctic front.  So if you want to pick a weekend to play in the snow, this would be it. Even if there's just mud and bare ground outside your door today. 

 

Update To December Tornadoes: Mayfield Candle Factory Won't Reopen; Lawsuit Against Amazon

Destroyed candle factory in Mayfield, Kentucky after the 
huge December tornado. Company officials announced they
won't rebuild in Mayfield, causing a loss of about
 250 jobs. 

 The tornado-devastated city of Mayfield, Kentucky too another blow recently when the people that run the candle factory destroyed by the December 10 twister won't rebuild or reopen.

That means 250 or so people have lost their jobs.  

Mayfield was probably the hardest hit community in an unprecedented December tornado outbreak that killed 76 people in Kentucky and surrounding states.Mayfield's downtown was destroyed, as was the candle factory where dozens of people were working when the tornado struck. 

The candle factory has about 500 employees. About 250 employees will be transferred to a new candle plant in nearby Hickory, Kentucky.  Company officials told the Louisville Courier Journal that they would like to hire everybody back eventually, but didn't know when that might happen, NBC News reports.

Nine of the 100 or so people working at the candle factory died when the tornado leveled the manufacturing plant. Managers of the plant came under fire after employees said they were not allowed to leave and find better shelter in the hours leading up to the tornado. 

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear has said the state has launched an investigation into the reports that employees were threatened with being fired if they left in advance of the tornado. 

Workers who made these claims have sued the factory operators, saying keeping the workers at the doomed factory failed to "provide a workplace free from serious recognized hazards," as required by Kentucky law, reports Kentucky.com.

AMAZON TORNADO LAWSUIT

Amazon warehouse destroyed by a tornado on December 10,
2021 killing six people. The estate of one of those killed is
suing Amazon citing unsafe working conditions during
the tornado emergency. 

Meanwhile, the family of one of six people who died on December 10 at an Illinois Amazon warehouse when another tornado struck has filed suit against the online giant. 

According to Reuters, the family of driver Austin McEwen, 26, filed the lawsuit, alleging that Amazon knew conditions were "highly unsafe as tornado warnings had been issued' but company officials "rolled the dice with peoples' lives to put profit over safety," said the family's attorney, Jack J. Casciato.    

The lawsuit is for multi millions of dollars, Casciato said.

Amazon officials deny the allegations, saying their building was built to code and employees were moved to safer areas when tornado warnings were issued.

Other Amazon employees dispute Amazon's attention to safety.  In December one driver told news media she was out making deliveries when tornado sirens began to wail. She asked to return to the warehouse but the manager told her to keep delivering or lose her job. This, despite the obvious danger of driving in an area under an active tornado warning. 

These two updates show that the immediate aftermath of a tornado, or any other big disaster is not the end of the story. It's just the beginning of it. For tornado victims, there will be plenty of twists and turns down the road. Many of these twists and turns will probably be painful.