Midwest Tornado Outbreak To Get Even Worse Today; Here In Vermont, More Rain, Slight Flood, Severe Weather Threat

Another day of severe weather and tornadoes today in
large portions of the U.S. Most at risk for strong tornadoes
is in the orange and especially red areas of the map. 

 As expected, several tornadoes touched down Thursday, mostly in Minnesota and Wisconsin with Round 1 of a severe weather outbreak.  That outbreak will move south and get even worse today and tonight. 

Meanwhile, here in Vermont, the weather won't get especially dangerous, but big changes are on the way and there are still some minor threats from possible flooding and strong storms.

I'll get into Vermont details in a moment, but first a national update

STORM OUTBREAK

At least 14 tornadoes touched down in the Upper Midwest Thursday and that number might rise as damage is assessed. 

Even some places that didn't have a tornado got nailed by severe weather. Storm winds gusted to 79 mph in Gardner, Illinois, 74 mph in Bonfield, Illinois and 73 mph in Thief River Falls, up in northern Minnesota.

Even places that didn't have severe weather were hit be strong winds. The strong low pressure system that spawned the tornadoes created wind gusts as high as 64 mph in Pierre, South Dakota. 

A big Beyonce concert at Chicago's Soldier Field was delayed for hours after storms swept the area with strong winds and torrential rains. 

So far, there's been no reports of deaths or serious injuries from the Upper Midwest storms. 

However, today looks even worse than Thursday. 

An area centered on the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers is set up for some bad stuff today. That includes Kentucky, southeast Missouri, and southern Illinois and Indiana. This includes the cities of St. Louis, Cincinnati, Lexington and Louisville, Kentucky and Evansville, Indiana. 

Those areas are under a moderate risk of tornadoes with is a level 4 out of 5 alert level. Forecasters are worried the area later today and tonight will be raked by numerous tornadoes and otherwise damaging thunderstorms.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center wrote,  "Several strong tornadoes are expected, and a long-track high-end tornado will be possible." 

High end, long-tracked tornadoes are relatively rare, and are responsible for the most destruction and potential highest death toll of any twister.

Beyond that, daily risks of severe storms and tornadoes in various parts of the U.S, will continue Saturday through Tuesday. Monday looks especially dangerous in and around Oklahoma, 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The warm weather this week has really gotten my large
lilac bushes to bloom around my St. Albans, Vermont
house.  Smells great out there in the breeze.

The weather here in Vermont over the next few days will be interesting, but not violent. 

The Green Mountain State has one more day of summer today before an extended chilly spell hits. Burlington had its fourth day in a row in the 80s Thursday and today will probably make it five. 

Today will be a mixed bag, with sunshine, and scattered showers and storms. Some places will get nailed by heavy, slow moving rainers while other areas will barely be touched. 

We had a foretaste of what is to come Thursday. While most of us had a partly sunny, warm  summer day,  slow-moving thunderstorms that dropped heavy rain , mostly in sections of southern Vermont.

In far southern Vermont, in the mountains east of Bennington around Searsburg and Woodford State Park, a flood advisory was briefly issued Thursday evening as storms there dumped at least two inches of rain in a short period of time.

A special weather statement was also issued in Rutland County for slow moving storms that had the potential to cause minor flooding.

Today, the storms will be more widespread than they were yesterday.  Any storms that do form will move slowly like they did yesterday, leaving open the opportunity for isolated instances of flash flooding. NOAA' Weather Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk for flash flooding today, a level one out of four alert levels. 

Hard to say in advance who gets bullseyed by storms and who avoids the worst of it.  It's a roll of the dice

Saturday

Yes, Saturday will definitely be the eighth one in a row with rain. It won't rain all day, but there will be frequent enough showers and possibly thunderstorms. 

The wild card is Saturday afternoon.  If it stays cloudy all day the round of showers coming in during the afternoon won't have much instability to work with, so we'd just get downpours, and no strong thunderstorms. 

However, we get an interval of sunshine in the late morning and early afternoon, that would prime the pump for a few scattered strong to severe storms.  If it happens it won't be anything widespread but it's something to keep in mind. 

NOAA has Vermont in both a low level risk of severe storms and a marginal risk of flash flooding for Saturday.  Whatever happens will be fairly isolated, and not another full scale disaster like we've seen in recent years.

Beyond Saturday

Hope you liked summer this week because it's over. We're in for a long period of chilly, unsettle weather that should last at least a week, maybe more.  

The rain should continue Saturday night and into Sunday.  Rainfall totals between now and Sunday evening should be more than inch across most of Vermont. Places that really get hit hard by repeated downpours could get two or more inches of rain.

Starting Monday and continuing through next week, it's hard to tease out exactly when and how much rain will fall. But we know temperatures will be below normal, it'll be more cloudy than sunny and daily temperatures should stay mostly in the 50s and low 60s. 

I'm not sure when summer weather will return, but it'll be a long wait.