More Bad News, And A Glimmers Of Good News, Regarding Foolish Trump NOAA Job Cutbacks

Bad consequences are starting to emerge
from the Trump administration's firing
of hundreds of NOAA employees.

The Trump administration's destruction of NOAA and the National Weather Service, along with so many other necessary federal entities, continues apace.  

Obviously, we'll focus on NOAA and other weather and climate entities here, since that's the subject of this here blog thingy, so we'll give whatever updates we can.

I'm saying "whatever updates we can," because everything the Trump administration is doing is chaotic, on again, off again, just going along with the whims of the moment. 

Kind of like a regular weather forecast, what will happen next with Trump and Elon Musk and NOAA and NWS is subject to change. But of course more unpredictable than the weather. 

Speaking of which, I have more evidence that the weather itself will get more unpredictable, thanks to some emerging practical effects of the government slashing. 

The National Weather Service offices in Albany, New York and Gray, Maine this past week announced they are suspending some weather balloon launches due to lack of staff. 

Usually, the National Weather Service launches weather balloons twice a day from 100 sites. These balloon launches take detailed weather measurements through multiple layers of the atmosphere. This data is fed into the computer models that guide weather forecasts.

The fewer balloon launches, the less data goes in, so the accuracy of the computer forecasts goes downhill. 

Meteorologist Mallory Brooke, writing on Facebook, explained it this way. 

"Weather balloon launches are critical in understanding what's happening in the atmosphere. Weather isn't created on the ground, it's above our heads! These cuts will have huge implications on forecasting, data accuracy, reliability, and ultimately knowledge of what's coming our way. AI *cannot*  replace this --- this is the core of how our computer models are initialized and run. 

It's like trying to bake a cake but you're going to guess what temperatures to set the oven at. Doesn't usually work out well. These are sad days for the science community as a whole."

Balloon launches were previously canceled up in Alaska, which is bad because there's already a dearth of data from the far north, which is often a weakness in computer models, This will just make it worse. 

MORE FIRINGS CONFUSION/FEARS

There's been conflicting reports of whether some NOAA employees that were fired under Elon Musk's DOGE hatchet firings were reinstated or not.

An unknown number of some probationary employees -  individuals who have worked for their federal agency for less than year - have been reinstated. For instance, three meteorologists let go from the Boise, Idaho National Weather Service office reportedly have their jobs back. 

Also, the building housing the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma appears to be off the closing list, at least for now. The center is a hub for weather research, forecasting and supercomputers that house crucial computer model data. 

Meanwhile, there are reports that more NOAA firings are in the offing. 

Details are emerging about the kind of forecasting and disaster services and activities going away because of the cutbacks

Hurricane Hunters

Included in the chaotic firings appears to be a group of hurricane researchers, two hurricane hunter flight directors and an engineer. 

The hurricane hunter cutbacks are concerning to say the least. These are the seemingly crazy people who fly planes into hurricanes. Their work is invaluable. The dense data the collect from flying into these storms are critical in helping forecast where the storm is going and how strong it will get.

As we learned from Hurricane Helene and Milton last year, and from countless other hurricanes, knowing as precisely as possible where they will hit and at what intensity is essential for getting people out of harm's way, stacking resources in advance where you will need them, and accurately warning the public about what's to come. 

The cutbacks in hurricane experts threatens to diminish the accuracy of the hurricane forecasts. Even if you don't care about human life, and just care about financial responsibility. these firings do not make sense. 

Inaccurate forecasts mean that coming up, people who should have been warned to get out of the way weren't, and people who were warned of an impending hurricane and fled would do so unnecessarily, as the storm went off in a different direction, due to bad forecasting. 

Fired federal hurricane researchers had also been working on improving forecasting models.  So better forecast accuracy is once again out the window. 

I guess Elon Musk is rich enough to avoid danger from hurricanes. The little people who would bear the brunt of these storms don't really matter, do they?

FEMA AND WILDFIRES

It's already been a busy year for wildfires, with that mega firestorm in Los Angeles in January. Plus other wildfires in Texas, South Carolina, North Carolina, South Dakota, North Dakota, New York and other states already. 

You'd want well-trained crews to fight these fires. But that's not on the Trump agenda either, apparently. 

The National Fire Academy, the nations pre-eminent federal fire training center, has canceled its wildfire training courses as amid what it announced was the "process of evaluating agency programs and spending alignment with Administration priorities," the Associated Press reported.

In other words, battling wildfires and saving lives and property is not a Trump administration priority. Good to know. 

Wildfire training was set to begin next week.  People already had their plane tickets ready to go to this thing.  Maybe we can get Donald Trump and Elon Musk to rake the forests so that we won't have any wildfires?

I dunno. 

Helium, Gas Shortage Worsens For Weather Balloon Launches, Could Make Forecasts More Iffy

A helium shortage has curtailed some weather balloon 
launches, raising questions about whether this
will affect forecast quality in some situations.

 A helium shortage has worsened - at least for now - the ability of some local weather offices to launch critical atmosphere-monitoring balloons.  

This party-pooper development not only threatens some balloon-festooned celebrations, but it could mess up your weather forecast, at least a little.  

I first brought this up in March 2 post, when at least one National Weather Service office was curtailing weather balloon launches because of the shortage. 

These weather balloon launches are important because they carry a box of instruments called a radiosonde. That device collects data that is ingested into computer forecasts models to predict pretty much all kinds of weather. 

True, weather balloons seem anachronistic in this age of weather satellites and whiz-bang technology. But they do add to the boatloads of data needed to make accurate forecasts. 

The National Weather Service says the limited launches won't affect the quality of weather forecasts, but other meteorologists aren't so sure.  The Washington Post checked in with a number of meteorologists who questioned that assertion by the National Weather Service.  

 Weather balloon launches seem anachronistic with all the satellites and technology we have to monitor the weather. 

As the Washington Post reports: 

"Weather balloons are especially useful in severe weather or wintry precipitation environments because the data they collect can offer detailed insight about temperature profiles with altitude that can't be collected via radar, satellite or a ground-based observation network." 

Severe thunderstorms and winter storms are especially tricky to forecast, so the balloons are a great added tool to accurately predict those events. 

There's two bright sides to this problem that make it less bad than it could be. 

A minority of the 101 sites in the United States and the Caribbean that launch weather balloons use helium. The rest use hydrogen. 

However, you can't use hydrogen in crowded areas with lots of people, basically anywhere near a lot of occupied buildings. Think Hindenburg. Hydrogen very easily goes BOOM. The Hindenburg airship was full of hydrogen and that sure didn't end well. Which means you don't want to risk a calamity with hydrogen when a lot of people are wandering around close by. 

Another bright side is the helium shortage might ease within the next few weeks. That would make limited balloon launches a temporary issue.  The Washington Post said several sites were able to sort out some of the problematic gas deliveries, but it will take time until actual gas deliveries resume. 

Overall, then, the Great Helium Crisis of 2022 means a few of your trickier weather forecasts might be a little less accurate than they otherwise would be. Most of the time, your National Weather Service forecast will be quite accurate.  It almost certainly won't rain on your parade tomorrow if the NWS is calling for clear skies. 

Still, the more accurate all the forecasts are the better. Here's to hoping the helium shortage eases soon! 

 

Will A Helium Shortage Make Weather Forecasts Of All Things Less Accurate?

A meteorologist launching a weather balloon. The balloons
and their attached radiosondes are a critical piece of 
accurate weather forecasting, but a helium shortage
is threatening these balloon launches.

A bummer for party planners is turning into a real headache for meteorologists.

The nation faces a shortage of helium, which means party balloons are becoming more problematic.  Meanwhile, the National Weather Service uses helium for work, not partying, and the shortage is beginning to affect them. 

As Fox Weather tell us, 92 out of the 122 National Weather Service offices launch weather balloons twice a day. Here's how Fox Weather tells us how all this works:

"The balloons carry a box of instruments called a radiosonde that helps play a critical role in weather prediction. The data collected by the radiosonde is ingested into the computer forecast models used by meteorologists to help predict weather conditions such as rain, snow, temperatures and wind."

Now the problem: Recently, the National Weather Service office in Tallahassee, Florida announced that for now at least, they'll only launch a balloon in the morning and skip the evening launches. That's all due to the helium shortage

So far, the other 91 NWS offices that launch weather balloons have not announced plans to curtail launches, but there is concern they might. 

Weather balloons seem awfully low tech in this age of super computers and satellites, but they are still critical in completing all the data needed to go into forecasts. 

Data collected from those radiosondes attached to the balloons go right into those computer models. If there's fewer balloon launches, that could reduce the accuracy of those computer forecasting models, Fox Weather reports. 

Helium began to be in short supply at least in 2019 if not earlier.  It's the second most abundant element in the known universe, but capturing it here on Earth is difficult since it floats out of the atmosphere and into Space so easily.

Way back in the stone ages - 2019 to be exact -  CNBC was explaining why we're short of helium:

"Oil companies harvest helium trapped deep beneath the Earth's surface in natural gas chambers. Radioactive decay causes uranium rock to disperse helium into natural gas chambers over millions of years. It's a slow process, and finding the helium can be even more challenging."

Most helium was discovered by accident and was regarded as just another byproduct of natural gas harvesting, explained CNBC.

Starting around 1925, the United States was the world's largest supplier of helium, thanks to huge reserves found in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.  That supply is depleted, and nobody's found a great new supply yet. 

There is some helium being discovered, but production glitches have kept the shortage going. There was a shutdown in the United States late last year for maintenance.

Russia was going to fill the helium supply void, but their main plant exploded twice in October and January. It was assumed that supply would be restored later this year, but now everybody is justifiably hating on Russia, so don't count on that supply. Frankly, I'd rather live without Russian helium given their atrocities in Ukraine. 

Some offices launch weather balloons using hydrogen and instead of helium.  But hydrogen is very explosive and dangerous, much more so than helium.

After all, the Hindenburg was filled with hydrogen, and look what happened with that.