 |
| DOGE staff cuts at NOAA means more weather balloon launches have been cut. Those weather balloons are critical for forecasting all sorts of weather. Including severe storms and tornadoes. As we head into tornado season, forecast accuracy will decline, making these storms even more dangerous. |
Elon Musk's so-called Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE has decimated staffing at NOAA, leading to tough decisions on how to manage weather forecasts, and more importantly, warning the public when dangerous weather looms.
Up to 1,000 NOAA employees have been let go.
The latest issues is that more National Weather Service offices are canceling weather balloon launches due to staff shortages.
That will lead to less reliable weather forecasts, and quite likely unpleasant and deadly storm surprises starting in the near future.
THE LATEST CUTS
"The normally twice-daily launches of weather balloons in about 100 locations provide information that forecasters and computer models use to figure out what the weather will be and how dangerous it can get, so cutting back is a mistake, said eight different scientists, meteorologists and former top officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - the weather service's parent agency."
Believe me, it's not just eight scientists. That's just the ones the AP quoted for their article. There's universal derision and frustration with the NOAA cutbacks. It will cost lives.
Not that Trump and Elon Musk care.
We previously reported cutbacks on weather balloon launches from Kotzebue, Alaska; Albany, New York and Gray, Maine.
Now, we learn balloon launches will be eliminated at Omaha, Nebraska and Rapid City, South Dakota. Twice daily launches will be reduced to once daily at Aberdeen, South Dakota, Grand Junction, Colorado, Green Bay, Wisconsin, Gaylord, Michigan, North Platte, Nebraska and Riverton, Wyoming.
On top of all the launch cancelations due to staffing shortages, some balloon launches are not happening because of a helium shortage. Also, there's sometimes technical issues that prevent balloon launches.
WHY THIS MATTERS
Taken together, that leaves big holes and blank spots in the data that goes into comprehensive weather forecasts.
Many of the newly ended ballon launches are in the northern United States, where the jet stream is most commonly positioned in the spring and early summer. The jet stream controls weather systems, so you really want to examine that part of the atmosphere for signs of storms.
That lack of weather balloons will hinder that effort.
We are now at the beginning of the peak severe storm and tornado season in the United States. Those balloon launches offer critical insights into what is happening on the atmosphere, helping meteorologists predict when severe weather - including tornadoes - might hit and how bad they'll get.
Since there will now be a big data hole from those canceled balloon launches in the middle of the nation, the eastern United States in particular might have poorer weather forecasts. That's because the weather generally flows west to east.
"For those of us east of the Rocky Mountains, this is probably the worst time of year," said (University of Oklahoma environmental professor Renee) McPherson,' 'It's the time of year that we have some of our largest tornado outbreaks, especially as we move into April and May."
"This frankly is just dangerous," McPherson told the AP.
We had an incredibly severe storm outbreak in mid-March that claimed 42 lives. However, lives were saved because the storm was anticipated well in advance. That gave people, including emergency managers, time to prepare. When tornadoes started touching down, warnings went out so that people could seek shelter. That surely saved lives.
That's the state of affairs with most severe weather outbreaks.
With the balloon launch cancelations, we'll still get a heads up from the National Weather Service about approaching dangerous weather. But accuracy levels on the location of the bad weather and its intensity could well wane.
Additionally, when severe storms and tornadoes actually develop, short staffed National Weather Service offices might miss the signs of an impending tornado, and thus not issue any warnings until its too late.
If a tornado is approaching, you want everybody to know about it. The best way to get that word out is through a National Weather Service tornado warning.
These balloon launch problems will also probably interfere with hurricane forecasts, and predictions for wildfire weather conditions.
Less important but still worth noting is that your day to day forecasts for routine weather will likely degrade, too. The joke is that meteorologists are always wrong, but that's not at all backed up by the facts.
The forecast for today actually has about a 97 percent chance of being accurate. A forecast for three days from now is about 90 percent. A forecast for a week from now has a 70 percent accuracy rate.
These excellent figures will worsen as the Trump administration hacks away at NOAA staffing and resources.
Trump, Musk and the other oligarchs now seizing control of the United States are protecting from severe weather by their wealth and staff. As opposed us rubes who live in the real world and deal with real things.
But the oligarchs don't care about us. The DOGE cuts aren't really about saving taxpayer money. It's all about lining pockets of said oligarchs to make them more rich and powerful. No proof here, but I suspect the government "savings" will never go into most of our hands.
After all, the DOGE cuts are designed to finance tax cuts for the rich, as the Republican led Congress is set to do.
Follow the money indeed!
No comments:
Post a Comment